Saturday Stuff

300
Sat, Feb 23, 2013 - 12:28pm

Just a quick wrap up of some assorted stuff as we prepare for what will be an eventful week ahead.

First of all, the big news from late yesterday...Moody's downgraded Her Majesty's debt. Though this is once again a fundamentally gold-positive event, I wouldn't expect an immediate jump in price because of it. Remember that in the fiat world, Pound weakness inversely means Pig strength. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9889485/Downgrade-to-pile-pressure-on-pound.html

In the absence of a podcast here at TFMR, please take the time to listen through all three segments of Andy's visit with Eric King yesterday (once they're finally posted). When we spoke yesterday, Andy told me not to expect anything too earth-shattering but I'm confident that it's worth your time, nonetheless. He and I plan hope to record something either Monday or Tuesday so look for that early next week. In the meantime, here are the KWN links:

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/22_Maguire_-_Stunning_225_Tons_of_Physical_Gold_Bought_By_CBs.html

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/22_Whistleblower_-_Gold_%26_Silver_Smash_Orchestrated_By_The_BIS.html

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/23_Maguire_-_Stunning_%2424_Premiums_For_Gold_In_Shanghai.html

If you haven't already, you're going to be reading a lot this weekend about yesterday's Commitment of Traders report. As you know, I like to review it right when it comes out and then post a sort of "instant analysis". Here's a c&p of my thoughts from yesterday, in case you missed them:

GOLD: For the week, price fell about $45. While this was taking place, the LargeSpecs added 1900 longs and a jaw-dropping 25,000 shorts! The LS net long ratio falls to an very bullish 2.12:1. The SmallSpecs got in on the act, too. They dumped 400 longs and added nearly 5,000 new shorts. This is an extremely bullish, contrary signal.
But the real action was by The Cartel. They added 4,300 new longs and covered an incredible 24,200 shorts. Again, who was buying while the specs were busy shorting? And who do you think will, ultimately, profit??
The Cartel net short ratio now stands at an extremely bullish 1.83:1.


SILVER: Almost identical to gold. Simply astounding, amazing and incredible.
For the reporting week, the price of silver fell about $1.60. Look what was happening internally:
The LargeSpecs dumped 1,150 longs and added 4,450 shorts. After reaching an unheard of extreme of 6.5:1 just two week ago, the LSpec net long ratio is all the way back to a mildly bullish 3.1:1
The SmallSpecs added 500 longs and 3700 shorts. Again, as in gold, the specs are racing to get short.
The "commercials"...pretty much all big firms except JPM and their con-conspirators...added another 2,026 longs, bringing their total gross long position to a never-before-seen 54,208. Simply incredible! They've continued to add longs all the way down. What do they know? What are they expecting??
The Silver Cartel...namely JPM and their two or three pals...were finally able to cover 6,800 of their disgustingly large short position. It's still disturbingly high at 92,164 but the total commercial net short ratio, which last peaked in September of last year at 2.6:1 has now declined to a quite bullish 1.7:1 Nearly every drop in The Cartel net short ratio to near 1.5:1 has preceded a substantial rally. We are very close!
All in all, both CoTs are extraordinarily bullish and indicative of a bottom very soon. Hang in there, now. Your patience will soon be rewarded!

Now, let me just add a couple of things:

  1. Getting the Gold Cartel net short ratio all the way down to 1.83:1 is a very good sign. For perspective, at the lows of late December 2011 and summer 2012, the Cartel net short ratios were 1.98:1 and 2.01:1, respectively. And this week's data was surveyed on Tuesday, before the big drop on Wednesday. All in all, the gold CoT is very bullish.
  2. Please also consider the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel. After the last four price washouts, here are your net short ratios at the bottom: On 8/14/12 it was 1.49:1. On 12/27/11 it was 1.34:1. On 10/4/11 it was 1.48:1 and on 6/28/11 it was 1.79:1. As of last Tuesday, it had fallen 1.7:1.
  3. And, finally, this theory....note the emphasis on theory. Regular readers know how perplexed I am by the silver OI situation. The primary outlier is the Commercial Long position. It "should be" somewhere near 30,000-35,000 contracts by this point in the price cycle. Instead, it grew again last week to 54,208. Chew on this: What if the 20,000 contract difference is, in fact, JPM trying to square away their naked short position that Uncle Ted estimates to be around 30,000. Now, stick with me on this... They tried to lessen it by covering back in April 2011 and the result was a near-cataclysmic event for them that was only rectified by the Sunday Night Massacre and the collusive CME margin hikes. Since then, they've maintained their position as The Big Short but, beginning late last summer, they began to build an equally-large long position. Again, stay with me here... They've added shorts through the fall to keep a lid on prices until they're ready to let it go, either voluntarily or involuntarily. If this is the case...and that's a very big IF...JPM could be approaching the point where they would be short 25,000-30,000 contracts AND long 25,000-30,000 contracts. At that point, if forced to exit the shorts, they'd be fully hedged and even profiting on the UPside.

Anyway, just chew on the 3rd point over the weekend. The more I think about it, the more it explains the "commercial long anomaly" and it provides JPM an exit strategy should the toothless CFTC ever choose to call them out.

Here are your updated charts. Given the CoT structure, I feel very comfortable declaring that a bottom is near. (And obviously hope that, by doing so, my Google ad revenue will increase.)

And just a couple of other items that have found their way into my inbox. First, this interview from last fall that details the whys and hows of gold manipulation:

Gold Market Manipulation Explained

This fun article discusses the effects of the gold repatriation movement: https://wealthcycles.com/features/15-ton-gold-repatriation-hits-jp-morga...

If you haven't read up on this subject yet, I strongly urge you to do so. Just like the German gold repatriation, we may look back on these events and recall them as clear warning signs of imminent events: https://www.sovereignman.com/important-information/red-alert-worlds-biggest-gold-storage-company-dumps-us-citizens-10958/

And our friends at Gold Bullion International do some excellent analytical work. Their latest was posted to ZH and you should definitely take the time to read it: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-22/gold-and-potential-dollar-endgame-part-3-backwardation-and-gold

Speaking of GBI, for now they are still the only bullion and storage affiliation that this site has. Many of you have purchased from them and I am very grateful for their support. If you are buying coins and bullion, please be sure to check them out. You can link to them trough the ad on the right side of the page. I'll soon be adding affiliations with GoldMoney, SilverDoctors, Provident and JMBullion, too, so please be sure to always consider them when looking the BTFD. (Which I would strongly encourage you to consider doing this weekend.)

OK, I think I'll stop there. I hope that you have a safe and relaxing weekend. You certainly deserve some serenity after the madness of the past two weeks. But keep the faith as this, too, shall pass. The metals have simply been forced back to the bottom of their 18-month price ranges and will soon begin to rebound as physical demand and the glaringly obvious fundamentals begin to take over.

TF

p.s. You've got to check this out. The trollololo song is going mainstream!! I sure hope that the dead Russian guy's estate is getting a little skin out of it...(Thanks to my pal, DocD, for passing it along!)

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About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  300 Comments

SIlverbee
Feb 23, 2013 - 4:35pm

This guy seems pretty much on the money

Peter Hug

Next 60 Days Key for Gold; 2013 Prices Will Surpass Historical All-Time High - "For Pete's Sake!"
¤
Feb 23, 2013 - 4:36pm

Gold is Money, Not Tradition at BIS

Bernanke Lied - Gold is Money, Not Tradition at BIS

Gold is money today.

Many still believe the big lie that gold is not money.

They think of gold in terms of eventually converting it back into fiat paper rectangle units to be exchanged for goods or services. Well educated, middle-class people believe that gold is not used in banking or as money today.

Much of this misperception is due to the misinformation disseminated by mainstream media and the educational system. We hear that gold does not earn a revenue stream. This, too is incorrect; to refute it, one can simply look up the gold and silver lease rates, as we detail in Bullion Bank Silver and Gold Leasing.

If you save in terms of gold and silver coins, there are many businesses and individuals who would gladly trade goods or services you want, in exchange for some savings of their own. The propensity of this opportunity will grow immensely as more and more people become aware of the imminent collapse of our existing monetary system and the protection offered by real money, gold and silver. Being pre-positioned today will serve great benefit in the future.

Both today and historically, the biggest banks and exchanges have encouraged payment in gold. We will touch on two of the more impactful but under-reported gold bugs out there.

Bank of International Settlements Uses Gold Accounting

First, let’s look at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), because the BIS is the central bank for the central banks of the world. Archived text copied from the profile section of its own webpage explained back in 1999 how the organization that got its start in 1930 changes all inbound fiat currency, including the Federal Reserve Bank’s precious dollar, into gold. Their words, our emphasis, below:

The Gold Franc of the BIS has a Gold Weight of just over 0.29 Grams of fine Gold, which is identical with the Gold parity of the Swiss Franc from 1930 to Sept. of 1936. The BIS employs the Gold franc solely as a unit of account for balance sheet purposes, assets and liabilities in U.S. Dollars being converted into Gold Francs at a fixed rate of U.S. $208 per ounce of fine Gold and all other currencies being converted into Gold Francs on the basis of market rates against the U.S. Dollar. At 31 March 1999 the Banks balance sheet total stood at 66.2 billion Gold Francs, with the Banks published own funds ( capital and reserves) at 2.9 Billion Gold Francs, expressed in U.S. Dollars with Gold at the then current market price the figures can be put at $131 Billion and U.S. $5.7 Billion respectively. In addition to placing funds in International markets, the BIS sometimes makes short term advances to central banks, these usually are in the form of secured credit against gold.

This last statement explains one of many reasons that central banks keep gold on hand, as it can serve as collateral in the event a loan is needed from the BIS, or anyone else for that matter. As “bad money” (such as fiat paper banknotes) circulates and good money is saved, demand for good money will grow with the ever-increasing quantities of bad money, or currency. Just consider how in the U.S., silver dollars are saved by citizens intuitively, while their paper dollars are spent quickly for recurring payments and necessities.

Exchanges and Banks Love Gold Too!

In Money-Good Asset Stocks Shrivel Prompting Collateral Crisis, we write that the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), one of the central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs), accepts gold, as do the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), CME Europe, and of course the commercial bullion banks will gladly take gold off your hands. As we know, central banks across the globe are capitalized in gold as well. ICE explained very clearly just why this particular asset is so desirable--lining up with the BIS’ “secured credit against gold” policy:

There is no credit risk associated with gold after it has been settled... If you look over the long-term history, gold performs very well in the periods when clearing houses are most concerned; and that is during periods of stress... When considering collateral, cash and government bonds may be the first assets that spring to mind, but gold is in many ways the ideal form of collateral for both investors and CCPs... By contrast, credit risks on other collateral assets have grown discernibly recently. The last several years have proved that no assets can be considered “risk free.” The European sovereign debt crisis showed that even the credit quality of government bond markets can deteriorate rapidly as rating agencies continue to downgrade many European bonds.

To tie this all together, we would like to copy a post from....(cont.)

https://wealthcycles.com/blog/2012/09/20/bernanke-lied-gold-is-not-tradi...

murphy
Feb 23, 2013 - 4:40pm

Silverbee

Two nipples, I mean nickels for a dime?

R man J
Feb 23, 2013 - 4:40pm

Turdites in months of Consolidation

Ouch, that sounds a little uncomfortable. And you know what? It is!!!

Life in the consolidation has been happening to us now for 17 months. No wonder some of our beloved gold bug oracles are acting a little constipated in their attitudes with one another. We keep thinking of the breakout, ah what a release from pressure it will be. But there is a FAR more important question to ask:

HOW MANY OUNCES HAVE YOU ACQUIRED SINCE THE CONSOLIDATION BEGAN IN OCTOBER 2011?

I thought so, you stepped up the pace even more since then and you have much to show for it. You dollar cost averaged somewhere in the $31 / $1650 neighborhood. Now consider how many ounces you would have obtained if the price had not consolidated? What? Oh, no! You would have had 30% less ounces?

Soooo...if you had it to do over again, and it was September 2011 and you could have kept the price at $44 / $1900, would you have done so? Think about how much lighter your phyzz load would have been if the prices had remained high.

So within the slimy walls of this consolidation, let us be thankful Turdites. And when a brother gets discouraged and stinky, let's hold our noses and embrace them until they come to their senses.

jolidacrown
Feb 23, 2013 - 4:48pm
¤
Feb 23, 2013 - 4:48pm

GATA...In a nutshell

This is going back quite a bit to a old GATA article but it succinctly paints the picture and how this might work with the BIS/CB's/Bullion Banks etc. You won't regret reading the entire article as it's loaded with links and there are some things towards the end that have you shaking your head.

I truly believe the scope and magnitude of how things actually work on a sovereign BIS/CB level would blow our minds and we might have some trouble processing it initially.

A Summary of GATA's Work

By Andrew Hepburn/GATA

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) believes that central banks, acting through certain investment banks, have surreptitiously manipulated the price of gold. Such activity appears to have started in the mid-1990s and continues to this day. Prominent entities involved include J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank for International Settlements. GATA specifically alleges that the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund has been used, contrary to official denials, for gold market interventions. Furthermore, GATA believes that the official sector intervened in the late 1990s to prevent an impending gold derivative crisis, the result of excessive short positions accumulated over many years.

These claims are based on analyses of publicly available government documents and statistics, trading abnormalities, and material presented in a GATA-backed lawsuit. Howe vs. Bank for International Settlements et al. accused the BIS, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, and four bullion banks of gold market manipulation. Though the suit was dismissed in 2002 on two technicalities, the evidence presented in it is recognized by many knowledgeable observers as having sufficiently proven the price-fixing allegations. Nonetheless, important questions remain unanswered about the gold market activities of the investment banks and monetary authorities.

Some answers may be forthcoming via a lawsuit currently in the discovery stage. Blanchard and Co., the nation's largest retail coin dealer, filed suit in U.S. District Court in New Orleans against Barrick Gold and J.P. Morgan Chase, alleging that hedging arrangements between the gold miner and investment bank facilitated the manipulation of the gold price. Motions to dismiss the lawsuit were recently denied by the presiding judge. This legal action is independent of the GATA-sponsored lawsuit but is supported by GATA and touches on the same basic issue. Given gold's current bull market, it is very timely. Some of the reasons for gold's extended bear market may finally come to light. (For a detailed explanation of the Blanchard case, see an interview conducted with its CEO, Donald Doyle:

https://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2003/DoyleInterview1203.pdf).

There are several possible motives for the Fed and Treasury to depress gold prices surreptitiously:

(1) To prevent rising gold prices from sounding a warning on U.S. inflation. Gold has long been considered a hedge against inflation, and a low gold price generally indicates that inflation is benign.

(2) To prevent rising gold prices from signalling weakness in the international value of the dollar. The Treasury Department has never articulated the mechanisms by which the "strong dollar policy" has been implemented. As mutual fund manager John Hathaway notes: "...there can be little doubt the low [gold] price has been one of the most important sound bytes for mass consumption underpinning the low inflation mythology of the new economy and the strong dollar." Hathaway continues:

Gold retains its financial market role as the "canary in the coal mine." A sharply rising gold dollar price would send a clear message to even the most casual observer that something is awry with the Fed's " fine tuning" of the economy and financial markets.

See https://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorms.php?id=108

(3) To keep interest rates artificially low. In an academic paper published during his tenure at Harvard, future Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers concluded that in a free gold market unaffected by "government pegging operations," the price of gold would move inversely to real interest rates. This relationship broke down in 1996, indicating that central banks moved at that point to suppress gold prices. (A copy of the essay, "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," is available at https://www.gata.org/gibson.pdf. For an analysis of Summers' work, see "Gibson's Paradox Revisited: Professor Summers Analyzes Gold Prices": https://www.goldensextant.com/commentary18.html#anchor196905).

(4) To prevent banks and others that have funded themselves by borrowing gold at low interest rates and are thus short physical gold from suffering huge losses as a consequence of rising gold prices. The bullion banks profited greatly from the "gold carry trade." As explained in Howe vs. Bank for International Settlements et al.:

Central banks lease gold either by making gold deposits with, or by making gold loans to, bullion banks, the largest of which are international banks or other financial institutions. In both cases, the gold is placed with a bullion bank usually at a very low rate of interest, often 2% or less. This so-called "leased" gold is then sold into the market and the currency proceeds delivered for investment or other use by the bullion bank and/or its customer. When the gold deposit is called or the gold loan comes due, the physical gold required for repayment must generally be repurchased in the market.

See https://www.gata.org/howe_complaint.html

The benefit to the bullion banks lay in the difference between gold lease rates and prevailing interest rates. By borrowing gold cheaply, selling it into the spot market, and investing the proceeds in interest-bearing instruments, the gold borrowers realized substantial gains. At some point, however, at least theoretically, the gold might have to be repurchased in the market and returned to the central banks.

This short position caused a huge price spike in the aftermath of the so-called Washington Agreement, where 15 European central banks agreed to limit gold sales and curtail lending activities. The reaction to the short squeeze by the Federal Reserve, BIS and Bank of England was outlined in Howe vs. BIS:

According to reliable reports received by the plaintiff, this effort was later described by Edward A.J. George, governor of the Bank of England and a director of the BIS, to Nicholas J. Morrell, Chief Executive of Lonmin Plc:

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The U.S. Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K."

Former World Bank consultant Frank Veneroso, currently global strategist at Allianz Dresdner, stated the following regarding the gold market activities of the central banks:

"In other words, the official sector intervened to prevent an explosive gold derivative crisis. We conclude from our argument based on the development of an inadvertent corner in the gold markets, from a "prison of the shorts," that, since the Long Term [Capital] Management crisis in late 1998, the official sector has been managing the price of gold."

See https://www.gata.org/Veneroso1202.html

In order to "prevent an explosive gold derivative crisis," the central banks have likely had to let the bullion banks off the hook for the majority of borrowed gold. Other possibilities include allowing the banks to settle outstanding gold loans in cash rather than metal. Whatever the case, it is also probable that an implicit agreement exists whereby the bullion banks will...(cont.)

https://www.gata.org/node/4239

joehappen
Feb 23, 2013 - 5:12pm

Future wedding no registry at APMEX......Any ideas?

I will be getting married right after the first of next year. I do not need people to get me pots and pans or a mop and broom set. I wanted ideas on how to not sound like an ass but ask for silver or gold ect. I really wish Gainesville or Apmex had a registry but they do not. So with this concept out in the open what do any other turdites out there suggest? We could use fiat too I suppose to offset the cost of the honeymoon but I think people placing a few Eagles in an envelope would by my thoughts be beyond awesome. A roll of dimes would be fine too!

Tell me if I am crazy, but if people ask what we might like as the date approaches I can't lie to them that would just be wrong... what do you all think? The girlfriend also thinks this is a fine idea too!

foggyroad
Feb 23, 2013 - 5:21pm

Margin Decrease

TF, most excellent analysis.

TF. wrote...

  1. "Since then, they've maintained their position as The Big Short but, beginning late last summer, they began to build an equally-large long position. Again, stay with me here... They've added shorts through the fall to keep a lid on prices until they're ready to let it go, either voluntarily or involuntarily. If this is the case...and that's a very big IF...JPM could be approaching the point where they would be short 25,000-30,000 contracts AND long 25,000-30,000 contracts. At that point, if forced to exit the shorts, they'd be fully hedged and even profiting on the UPside."

"Anyway, just chew on the 3rd point over the weekend. The more I think about it, the more it explains the "commercial long anomaly" and it provides JPM an exit strategy should the toothless CFTC ever choose to call them out."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reading this TF, got me to thinking about the 'margin maintenance' decrease a while back, which struck me as odd.

I have since come to believe it was done to allow a decrease in cost, by the CME, (JPM sits on the board of directors), of the big shorts (JPM et al.), of maintaining their huge Short Position.

Now with the 'Theory' of building an equally large 'Long Position' as an escape route, lowering the maintenance margin a while back makes even more sense.

Keep up the Fine work my Friend.

Dimeboyjoehappen
Feb 23, 2013 - 5:21pm

RCM for silver gifts

The Canadian Mint has had a nice line-up of personal event commemoratives, such as birthday, baby's first anniversary and yes, wedding coins. The are priced well over spot but usually keep there premium value well. Many are using the same planchet as the Maple so they are still nice to get for a silver bug. They sell direct at their online store mint.ca

foggyroadSIlverbee
Feb 23, 2013 - 5:37pm

@ Silver Bee re.Sexy Silver Vlog

Beauty and Brains, a very nice voice, and a lovely set..er sets. :)

I think I should re watch to clarify that commemorative sets silver content.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

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