Changes Ahead

Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - 6:01pm

Do you ever have one of those days where there is so much swirling in your head that you don't even know where to start? Where you're frustrated, a little angry and out of patience. And it seems like I've missed so much by being out Monday to Wednesday. Well, here goes anyway...

First of all, can we find a bottom to this latest price disaster? I believe so, yes, but perhaps not yet. Do you recall last week when we were so closely watching crude, copper and platinum? I mentioned then that all three seemed to be at critical junctures and, if they weakened, the selling would undoubtedly spill over into the PMs. Well, I'm not going to attempt to solve the chicken vs egg thing here but clearly this is all connected. Looking now at the damaged charts, all three look like they have a bit farther to go, too.

We'd discussed at length the virtue of dumping crude at $98 and waiting for a pullback toward $93. Now that we're there, crude looks like it may want to jab a little lower still. Maybe $91 or even $90. And isn't it convenient that, just as U.S. gasoline prices were staring at 4 bucks a gallon, crude got jammed lower in....ummm...let's just say "suspicious" circumstances?

Maybe you think that crude is simply falling because the economy is "soft"? Hmmm, of course, that's the reason that copper is sinking like a stone, too! (No wait a minute. Crude and copper are falling because the U.S and the global economies are "soft". Yet, one Fed Goon after another is being marched out to proclaim an early end to QE∞ because he economy is so rapidly improving! Which is it?)

Could it be that everything is centrally-planned now? That every single market is manipulated into painting a MOPEd picture that buys time and forestalls the inevitable collapse? Back on January 31, I told you to soon expect a string of Fed Goons and euro-negative headlines because the POSX had reached a critical support point near 79. What has happened since? What did you expect??

And then there's Sylvia. Unleashed earlier this year, she ran from $1525 to $1750 in little over a month. On the verge of a breakout that would have had an undeniably positive effect on gold and silver, it has since been hammered back almost 10%.

So what does all this mean? Well, if crude, copper, the euro and platinum all appear to have a little more weakness ahead and the POSX looks like it could rally further, then the PM smashdown likely isn't completed yet, either.

Not that they don't look like they potentially bottomed...they do...look at the RSIs for the love of Pete! However, at this point, I'm expecting one more jab down. Maybe break gold down briefly under $1550 and silver under $28, with nice little hammers or tails or wicks or whatever you want to call them hanging down off of the candles...just like the bottoms we've seen in the past.

And now just some random stuff...

I give old Clive a rash of sht from time to time but he sure nailed it this time. Gotta give credit where credit is due.

But you've got to respect Santa, too. He'd been warning us all for the past two weeks or so that this carnage was coming...and he was right. But he's been emphatic that the rebound in March would se spectacular. I guess we'll see.

And if you haven't yet, you need to check this out. The guy running this forum thread is relatively new to Turdville and he warned me when he joined that he had a lot of good info to share. After reading through the thread, you'll see that that was an understatement.

In case you didn't notice, the GLD shed an amazing 20.77 metric tonnes yesterday. This means that, year-to-date, 50.73 metric tonnes have been withdrawn. That is 1,631,000 troy ounces or 4,078 London good delivery bars. If you were to stack them on a pallet in layers of 40, the stack would be 102 bars high or, roughly, 9.5 feet tall. <edit> (And another 8.88 mts got yanked out today 2/21. This makes the YTD w/d 59.5 mts or nearly 5% of total "inventory".)

I promised you a "hot, explosive and historic" summer last year and now we find ourselves all the way back at last summer's lows. It sucks and it's hard for me to describe the anger and betrayal I feel almost every day because of it. Your regulators, your...public servants...have chosen, for six months, to do nothing. All the while, the Evil Ones they protect have been allowed to, once again, fleece the investing public by selling naked shorts into a rally and then contriving a selloff in order to cover and profit. You know...<sigh>...I've tried to hold the despair at bay. Since my "awakening", a part of me has always hoped that maybe, just maybe, it wasn't all as bad as it seems. That the banks and other corporations don't actually control the machinations of power. That "government of the people, by the people and for the people" still actually existed. And then you get the CFTC and you begin to realize that things truly are as bad as they seem.

The folks that show up here to criticize me for being "wrong 100% of the time" crack me up. I'm simply doing my best and, if you'll recall, I'm out of the trading business anyway. To compensate, last April I was able to line up for you the legendary Andrew Maguire. Andy only offers his services to huge sovereign and hedge funds but I was able to get him to cook up a retail service, just for you! And yet, only a handful of you have subscribed, choosing instead to go it alone. And then ridicule me and my increasingly useless charts when you lose money. Oh, I costs too much. sad Really? And how much money have you lost in the past week alone by attempting to do it all yourself?!?

And then there are the European socialists that always show up during the corrections and blast away at me for being "greedy" and "only in it for the money". One of them actually claimed yesterday that I was conflicted because I have advertisements. This in contrast to KWN which "has no ads or sponsors". Really?? Are you freaking blind and deaf? Maybe we should change your username to HelenKeller? Have you never heard Eric's 60-second intro to each interview in which he extols the virtues of such-and-such miner? Do you think he does that out of the goodness of his heart?

And why the heck can't I run ads? Do I not deserve to be compensated for my time? In the time-honored tradition of European socialism, I guess not. I've sunk about 40 grand of my own money into this site and, after expenses, the ads help it to run a "profit" each month of about $2000-3000. All of this for my non-stop, incessant worry, stress and work, to the tune of about 60 hours per week. By my math, that's about $10/hour or so and far less than what the average socialist worker gets paid in Germany, Austria or France. So cut me some freaking slack, OK?

So what I guess I'm building up to is this: Today I have made the financial commitment to begin changing this site. The changes will be gradual but will be increasingly apparent within the next 90 days or so. If it sucks and I blow the whole thing up, then so be it. However we can't continue on this way. Do you realize that this site is #42,176 in the world in terms of traffic? It is also either #4 or #5 in the PM blogosphere yet it is essentially a sole proprietorship. I do it all...the content, the moderation, selling ads, answering questions. Everything. My hope is that, with a little help, I can devote more time and energy to the charting and analysis that brought you here in the first place. I have a vision and a plan for making this site more fun, more interesting and more troll-free. We are here to learn and help each other and these changes will advance both causes.

And that's it for now. More selling is likely overnight and again at the Comex open tomorrow. Maybe we'll get the final dip. Maybe not...we'll see. More tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Punk-Assets · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:02pm



treefrog · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:08pm



ArtL · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:12pm

top ten

been stacking and will continue!

DollarMenu2 · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:13pm

I'm grateful for your site..

I really enjoy reading the postings here, and I have no criticism of ads or promotion, nor do I seek to blame others for my own decisions.

You owe no explanations to me.

I am grateful for the energies that you so freely share.

Punk-Assets · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:18pm

Martin Armstrong's saying a

Martin Armstrong's saying a close below $1579.50 tomorrow will eventually usher in the low to mid $1400s. Just an FYI. Most turdites will not like to hear this but I would invite that kind of a smack down. I could use an extra year or so to get mo metal. Of course MA knows no better than anyone else the levels that gold will go to.

tmosley · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:19pm

Turd: Sorry you had to cut


Sorry you had to cut your vacation short.

As a thought exercise, I would suggest you think about what would happen if all regulators were 100% corrupt/incompetent/unwilling to stick their necks out to act. Think about the implications vis a vie the paper price over time.

That is my assumption. I was somewhat surprised to find that your assumptions have been different. Now that you have stated your assumptions, your positions make a LOT more sense.

Spoiler alert: I think you will find that, given total regulator corruption, that the price of silver will continue to fall on increasing volatility until the market confirms that there is no silver, and industrial users seek supply elsewhere, and find that there isn't any, and boom goes the dynamite.

TomMack · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:21pm


new personal best but still bad luck. i kill myself to post early on turds 'back to biz' thread instead of my usual 11pm cent. post. and And next thing i know there is another post. whipped again


dgstage · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:24pm


Please do not let A-Holes get you down.

Boswell · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:27pm

Niner, Niner

Neener, neener!

Sorry, didn't have anything cute for "number nine"!

Sing the end of that beatles song to yourself for a while. ;-)

Hang in there Turd, looking forward to seeing the "enhancements"!

Mr. Fix · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:30pm
codesurfer · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:30pm

It's not just about the spot price

I remember a couple of years or so ago when the silver spot price had a sharp correction but physical supply was also very limited which caused the premiums to go up - that is if you can find any to buy. If the same thing happens again then waiting to see how much further the price drops may not be such a good idea.

May the Phyz be with you.

Al Huxley · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:32pm

Comex Calendar

Comex options expiry Monday. I'd thought that given the nature of the selloff yesterday maybe today would be the snapback, but looks like the commercials won't be denied in their own market, and so far, whatever the physical demand might be, the paper demand is apparently still strong enough to leave the paper market makers in the drivers seat. Maybe Tuesday will see a rally... In the meantime, I suppose nothing to do but buy more... and rant angrily about the blatant corruption of the regulators and the financial system so blatantly intent on destroying our entire society.

silver007 · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:38pm

32.50 to 27? WTF?

Last week we were talking about WHEN silver gets over we are talking about 27. WTF? I come here to get silver updates but all I see are just cartel haters and wishy washy opinions. Still very interesting and amusing. I also loaded up on a few bars today BUT I got no deal. Dealers are not going down too low. g/l

¤ · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:39pm

Hang tough

Hang in there big, yellow-hatted one.

It sounds like you have a solid plan brewing and I'm looking forward to whatever changes you feel are necessary and vital to your sites well being and the communities also. I think some of us realize how difficult it might be to wear many hats at once running this site.

It appears your up to the challenge. He's going the distance...

Cake - The Distance (lyrics)
Mr. Fix · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:42pm

Turd asked a great question:

"Could it be that everything is centrally-planned now? That every single market is manipulated into painting a MOPEd picture that buys time and forestalls the inevitable collapse?"


 Now there is a discussion worth having.yes

murphy · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:42pm


YOU GO GUY! Haters will hate and others will follow. Do what makes you feel good.

That_1_Guy · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:45pm

2nd person not to read it first, before posting

Yesss!!!! Now back to reading.

Im looking at a low 90s bottom in crude and silver to test 27. Ill be backing up again physical low 27s. Either way my stack ain't movin from the bottom of the lake, so let the good times roll. Attempts to initiate dis-hording...INITIATED. :)

The Cars - Good Times Roll (HQ Audio)



ps...turd dont sweat it man. Life will happen. :)

Mr. Fix tmosley · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:47pm

@ tmosley Your spoiler alert is dead on right.

"Spoiler alert: I think you will find that, given total regulator corruption, that the price of silver will continue to fall on increasing volatility until the market confirms that there is no silver, and industrial users seek supply elsewhere, and find that there isn't any, and boom goes the dynamite."

 That neatly sums up my entire overview of the PM markets in one nice neat sentence.


wonderer · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:53pm

To Turd

Please keep in mind that some folks reading your site every day are elderly widows trying to live on SSI, hoping to protect a little nest egg. 

Your site gives them hope that they will not have to be bag ladies, or take to an ice floe - when the ponzi music stops, and there are no chairs left on the Titanic ship of state.

The Green Manalishi · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:56pm

Thanks for all you do Turd

Hope this cheers you up.

turd song revised

Proud of our Turd

ag1969 · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:58pm

I'm sorry

I would like to apologize to everyone for my behavior yesterday. I take full responsibility for fanning the flames that caused the trolls to lay it on pretty heavily. I have asked before that others not feed the trolls, and I have even stated that I would not feed the trolls, and for some reason I just lost it yesterday.

I truly value the information, friendship, learning and overall tone at this forum. I especially like that most of the time, there is so much to learn all wrapped up with what I consider to be a healthy dose of laughter. It is a mix I truly look forward to on a daily basis.

Texas Sandman · Feb 21, 2013 - 6:59pm

Boy, I feel your pain TF!

Today was very very hard to trade. My rebuttable bias going in was bearish, but we started out the day above the trading range, so I treated it as a bullish bias. That was ok during the morning, but then almost on cue coming back from lunch the thing scooted back into the trading range. We were left with basically a doji on the daily (indecision), so that combined with a bearishly trending macd and plenty of room back down to the bottom of the trend channel leaves me again with a rebuttable bearish bias. After a collapse like we've seen, a doji really doesn't impress me.

Please, no more name calling, trolls, brain farts from the brain dead that "price can't possibly go to x", etc., etc.

Very frustrating and very difficult.

Andrew Maguire may be just fine, but he doesn't come cheap & he doesn't impart any wisdom as to the hows and whys. It's just "monkey see, monkey do". If he gets hit by a bus (I gather that already happened once when he spilled the beans to the CFTC, for all the good it did!), you're just out of luck. I do make money on my own, even in my ignorance, so I'll continue thrashing around, keep my own counsel, and will speak to anybody who'll listen.

Mr. Fix · Feb 21, 2013 - 7:10pm

@ ag1969

Trolls? What trolls? I didn't see any trolls!wink

 I guess it was a good day to not walk down Main Street.

 I can only assume that you gave them hell, just like I would always want to.

 Thank you for being here AG 1969, I always enjoy what you post.yes

· Feb 21, 2013 - 7:13pm

Hey Turd- If you need any help

With anything whatsoever, just let us know. Either individually or collectively, there are a whole bunch of good people here who would be happy to assist you in realizing your vision for this place in any way we can. We got your back.

 And as Murph said, do what makes you feel good- don't forget to have some fun with this thing!


Sad-descent · Feb 21, 2013 - 7:24pm

Re: advertising complaints

Am I the only one who thinks it absolutely absurd, silly that people would think it wrong for someone to make money from a financial, free market website?

Turd-Do what you want/have to do. I know it has to be frustrating to sink that much of yourself into something and then have people dump all over it.

Swineflogger · Feb 21, 2013 - 7:24pm
Bollocks · Feb 21, 2013 - 7:25pm


"I've sunk about 40 grand of my own money into this site"

Umm, well if you ever need another let me know. I, and those I run my business with could build you this site, exactly as it is - with all the features and including hosting, for about 8-10 grand.

No, not joking. 40 grand is ... ouch!

That_1_Guy · Feb 21, 2013 - 7:25pm
· Feb 21, 2013 - 7:32pm

This is completely wrong!

"Andrew Maguire may be just fine, but he doesn't come cheap & he doesn't impart any wisdom as to the hows and whys. It's just "monkey see, monkey do"."

And you have NO IDEA what you are talking about!! Please do not disparage Andy's service with misinformation; His weekly "Commentary", which he posts on Sundays, is the most comprehensive and complete wrap-up and forecast that you'll find...ANYWHERE! 

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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