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Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  548 Comments

thedukes Basil · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:07pm

I have followed Santa since 2003 and attended 4 of his annual meetings and know the guy is genuine and is doing the best he can in a market full of obstacles. His 10 year prediction of gold hitting 1650 speaks volumes all by itself.

"I have been following Sinclair for many years, and his predictions are just as often wrong as right. " Perhaps you can name a few.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal kingboo · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:08pm

you may not think you're transparent.....but you are. I have windshields that are more difficult to see through than you.....

Please enlighten me, I am genuinely curious what you believe my motives are.

people don't come here to get swayed out of metals.......they come here because they ALREADY believe the system is going to shit and together we are looking for support in numbers....and solutions...... 

I couldn't have said it better myself.

ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:10pm

I was nice at first, but everyone here knows that you signed up with the sole intention of being an asshole. You insinuated that the tone here is to talk people into borrowing fiat to buy PM's. Nothing could be further from the truth. Every time someones suggests that they themselves are thinking of going into debt to buy PM's, everyone comes out of the woodwork to tell that person why they should not go into debt to buy PM's. You are a douchebag. Your facts are wrong and your comments are fucking stupid.

Patrancus · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:13pm

Wringing out the weakest of hands immediately before the wheels come off the cart has been predicted for several years, hold onto your seats the ride will be one for a lifetime.

The Obozo panic over sequestration is really a joke, though nobody pays any attention to this Joker and nobody cares if this president is in eternal campaign mode, now talking about vetoing his own budget reduction idea from a year ago, you can't make this shit up, what a time to be alive.

ancientmoney NonoverlappingMagicCereal · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:13pm

Not sure how old you are, or how much you have studied markets, economics, finance, etc. I am 61 and have studied for last 15 years.

I have seen continuous degradation of the west's finances. I have seen the manufactories leave the western shores primarily for the orient. The debt is face-ripped-off devastating. I have watched as laws are overturned to allow the bankers anything they want/need to stay upright. I have watched the elites hand over $17,000,000,000,000 to the TBTF banks since 2008. I have watched unemployment rise to 18% (if counted as it was pre-Clinton). I have seen China buying gold with a fever. I have seen China tell their citizens to buy it, and silver. I have seen the power-elite try to overturn parts of the Bill of Rights, so as to secure their own lives.

It seems to me that there is little place left to put one's lifetime of earnings except into physical metals, land, and stored energy.

Maybe your studies yield other ideas. I'd like to hear them. thank you.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:17pm

I was nice at first, but everyone here knows that you signed up with the sole intention of being an asshole. 

I apologize if anything I have said has come off that way.

Every time someones suggests that they themselves are thinking of going into debt to buy PM's, everyone comes out of the woodwork to tell that person why they should not go into debt to buy PM's.

That's great - but as you point out, people are suggesting it and people are doing it. They are doing so because of the certainty expressed here. I do not believe it is intentional, and did not suggest or even imply that it was, but it's happening. Perhaps unlike you, I don't see villains around every corner. I do not doubt the sincerity of the people here or the site's owner.

You are a douchebag. Your facts are wrong and your comments are fucking stupid.

I am sorry you feel that way.

foggyroad Eman Laer · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:19pm

Thanks, Eman Laer.

Had to repost!

What is also a bit of a “tell” in our view is that the very high short positions put on by Managed Money traders has been gold-specific. As we conclude in the special Got Gold Report article: “… we have come to the conclusion that the Funds are in the process of pulling off one of the great head fakes of our trading career. … Either that or they have correctly positioned for the gold market to collapse while forgetting to do the same for silver.” 

Since sending the report out we have received multiple requests from colleagues we respect and admire to share our work in the public domain – an honor we cannot in good conscience deny. So, below is a link to the entire article, including all the important charts and data, in PDF format.

https://treo.typepad.com/files/20130218-ggr-cot-notes.pdf

Please read bold print. Eman posted this very interesting conclusion, re. 'managed money', positioning in COT. Click link.. https://www.gotgoldreport.com/
NonoverlappingMagicCereal ancientmoney · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:21pm

Maybe your studies yield other ideas. I'd like to hear them. thank you.

I do not think you would. Although I read a good deal of material like this site, most of my 'study' is of material written by economists, including some which are (gasp!) non-Austrian. I know that such heresy is not tolerated around these parts :)

ballyale · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:22pm

.This may be true. Lynn Energy (Line) declined in pre market action to well over
$1.25. Then it recovered during normal hours and is now up $0.15 It seems obvious that some entity simply sold Line at pre market "market order" where there is little volume to sustain such a dumping.
Just my take.
Bally.

_________________________

By Stephen Kirkland, Daniel Kruger and Moming Zhou

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Silver and oil tumbled more than 2 percent to lead the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities to its biggest decline in almost six weeks amid speculation a hedge fund was selling positions. U.S. benchmark stock indexes fell from five-year highs and New Zealand’s dollar weakened.

“There is a rumor that a fund is blowing up,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “Metals are getting hit and it’s spreading over to oil.”


The S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since October 2007 yesterday and ended the session trading for 15.1 times reported earnings, the most-expensive level since July 2011.
The benchmark gauge of U.S. equities is less than 3 percent below its record high and is up about 7 percent in 2013, beating a 4.6 percent gain in the MSCI Asia Pacific and a 3.4 percent rise in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

‘Too Far’

“The market has moved too far,” Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $20 billion. “We need to take a breather. Even good, solid economic reports are probably not living up to the expectations. It doesn’t mean that we’ll see a selloff. Yet we’ll probably move sideways.” An S&P gauge of homebuilders lost 3.9 percent as all 11 stocks retreated. Work began on 613,000 one-family houses at an annual rate last month, the most since July 2008 and up 0.8 percent from December’s 608,000, Commerce Department figures showed today. Total housing starts dropped to a 890,000 rate, less than forecast and restrained by a slump in construction of multifamily units.

Treasury 10-year note yields retreated from near the highest level in 10 months before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its last policy meeting.

Dyna mo hum · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:22pm

"Beware of strangers and nit shits offering advice" Your mileage may vary.

tyberious · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:23pm

"It Only Takes Two Charts To Explain Why Gold Is Collapsing

businessinsider.com / By Joe Weisenthal | Feb. 20, 2013, 4:50 AM

Gold has been falling, and as we just mentioned, it’s about to enter a “death cross”, which is a technical analysis term that means it’s fallen hard, and people think it will fall more.

But while diagonal lines on a chart are fun, there are fundamental reasons why gold is declining.

It basically comes down to two things, that can be be expressed clearly in chart form.

The first is real interest rates. When real interest rates are extremely low or falling, that’s good for gold. And there’s an intuitive reason for that. Collapsing real interest rates mean you’re not getting paid much for being in currency, and the real economy probably isn’t offering that much either. So, why not be in gold?

Here’s a chart comparing gold in recent year to the yield on the 10-year TIPS (inflation adjusted bonds). As you can see, gold has been a mirror image of the TIPS yield, and now that real interest rates are ticking higher, gold is seeing weakness.

The other big driver of gold is fear. When people are in a panic, something in our reptilian brains tells us to buy gold, which is why it’s been around as a quasi-currency for so long."

READ MORE

Yet they do not explain the price decline or sideways action from 18xx.00, if the relationship is truly inverse.

ancientmoney NonoverlappingMagicCereal · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:25pm

"I do not think you would."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have an open mind, and I am willing to reconsider my theory, if yours is better. Try me.

tyberious · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:26pm

SAC Capital Partners Bets A Quarter Billion On Gold, Silver, & Mining Shares

bullmarketthinking.com / By Tekoa Da Silva / February 19, 2013

While the mainstream media continues to spew out bearish news and headlines on precious metals and (especially) mining shares, SAC Capital Partners LP, a $20 billion dollar group of hedge funds founded by Stephen A. Cohen, quietly positioned itself in over $240 million dollars worth of gold, silver, and mining share investments during Q4 2012.

Of great interest is the structure of those positions. They are indicating, that the firm is expecting a massive spike in both gold and silver, as well as a staggering move higher in the mining shares.

Starting out, the firm increased it’s holdings in gold and silver mining shares from roughly $54.9 million, to $122.2 million, a total increase of over $65 million. Companies included many of the major producers such as AngloGold, Barrick, Goldcorp, and surprisingly, included junior producers, such as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

-The firm took an over $20 million dollar “straddle” position on the SLV ETF, which indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of silver—either up or down.

-The firm took an over $61 million dollar “straddle” position on the GLD, which similar to the SLV position, indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of gold—either up or down.

READ MORE

Urban Roman · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:26pm

It might just work, until someone tries to take delivery on a tank of gas. 

Did Someone Intentionally Try To Crash The Crude Contract? Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/20/2013 12:35 -0500

-- ZeroHedge

[edit]
And that "ignore user" button sure is a good idea. Thanks, Turd and your webmonkeys, for making that feature available. 

Bugzy · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:27pm

The paper price goes down. The sky has fallen.

Yet central banks and countries are buying PHYSICAL gold all over the world. Does anyone here think they are now quaking in their boots right now? Wondering if they should sell for fiat? Heck no - they are currently backing up trucks (and planes).

How many times...... you buy physical because you are your own central bank and or sovereign individual.

If you need to feel good ALL the time then might I suggest a magazine and a closed door. (Catholics might try confession instead; even for having such thoughts.

Only when enough physical has been bought and a shortage is seen does the sun rise. This event should be welcomed with both arms.

If you need to see green everyday then you are A) delusional and B) in the wrong game.

This is about a complete breakdown in the status quo. Not a stroll in the park flipping your Gold coin and thinking what a clever investor you are.

This is the financial equivalent of the Somme - it is not going to be pretty. Get used to it or get out.

Bugzy

ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:32pm

"That's great - but as you point out, people are suggesting it and people are doing it. They are doing so because of the certainty expressed here. I do not believe it is intentional, and did not suggest or even imply that it was, but it's happening. Perhaps unlike you, I don't see villains around every corner. I do not doubt the sincerity of the people here or the site's owner."

Nobody is suggesting that one go into debt to buy PM's. Your only purpose here is to cast doubt on people here and the site's owner. Stop your retarded defense of your blatantly trollish behavior. I don't see villains around every corner, I just know a troll when I see one. I am sure your apologist tone will curry some favor for you while the regulars tell me I should not be mean to newbies. 

I am not saying or implying that you are a newbie, I am simply suggesting that it may be the case. I did not mean to call you a douchebag, I am just politely suggesting that you maybe consider the possibility.

I don't really care to argue with you so don't bother. I just want to drop in my point and not have to defend it while I engage in an apology tour.

Whatever troll.

¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:33pm

I hear ya' on that.

I haven't pulled the trigger yet and it's only a few hundred bucks I'm fishing with. I'm not wading in and throwing any big lures into the shark infested waters just yet.

Igiveup2 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:34pm

Why, when there are so many good comments posted that go unanswered, do so many people in this community feel compelled to respond to those who post only to antagonize? The "Ignore User" tab is infinitely less effective in combating the antagonists than just not responding to their comments. Ignore them by ignoring them.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ancientmoney · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:35pm

I have an open mind, and I am willing to reconsider my theory, if yours is better. Try me.

Alright - but I'm afraid you will be disappointed. As I've hinted at before - I don't have any prognostications. Maybe the problem is that this is more or less a 'financial' site, and financial media is all about buy/sell predictions. I think it's all a bunch of nonsense. I don't believe in hard Efficient Markets theory, but I think as a rule of thumb it's pretty good.

The information about central bank policy is no secret, and yet we haven't seen it reflected to the prices of assets you mentioned for over two years. One reasonable explanation is that the monetary policy is already priced in. Again, everyone here will have reasons for why that isn't a reasonable explanation, but I find their certainty stunning. I just don't think they can know.

Here's one point on which we agree: the only way asset prices are consistent with the theories espoused at places like this and zero hedge is that they are being manipulated. I think it's fairly unlikely, but what do I know? However, the people that are certain of manipulation are, in my opinion, so emotionally wedded to their ideology and existing investments that it is clouding their thinking. I don't make the accusation lightly either: for evidence of the emotionally charged sentiment please refer to any of the responses to my posts in this thread and judge for yourself if they were merited.

ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:35pm

It all boils down to the old adage, "actions speak louder than words."

Don't do what the bankers say, do what the bankers do. They are the world's wealthiest liars.

Keg · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:37pm

usk · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:37pm

tic tac tic tac

Correction: The Fed minutes will be released at 2:00pm ET.

Grublux · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:38pm

Not sure it will play out this way (how things have been going)

But alittle monthly chart for you may help your process...

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:39pm

Your only purpose here is to cast doubt on people here and the site's owner.

OK - to avoid further argument I will admit that this much is true. I phrased it as 'being a voice of moderation', but I suppose your phrasing is fair as well. If that makes me a troll, so be it.

I'll stick around for this thread, but I don't think I'll be troubling you all further.

ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:40pm

For that I will apologize, nothing else.

DollarMenu2 · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:40pm

Sort of new here, and I don't do a lot of deep thinking so I don't have too much to offer.

So glad to have this site, which is for the most part, devoid of the deep and corrosive snark that has overtaken ZH site.

But, ZH is where I found this place, so Universe balances all.

Anyhow, from my remote viewpoint, for every day we are dealing with down drafts, beatdowns, and general Gold and Silver malaise, we have another day to go about living as best we can. Sure there are many problems, but the minute the AU/AG go ballistic, the whole fabric of life will be torn as completely as that neighborhood on Staten Island was by hurricane Sandy.

I'm grateful for my coffee, my computer, my garden, my friends and family - who for the most part are totally unaware of the dangerous churning river we are crossing on the seemingly solid bridge we call daily life.

Every day the markets are in 'controlled' status is another day for me to enjoy.

I've been lugging Franklin Halves around since they were being pulled out of circulation by Gresham's Law in the '60's.

So, since then, I've been waiting for the inevitable.

Long wait - long life full of surprise and joy.

I guess I just wanted to say to those too wrapped in the moment, take a deep breath and make your moment longer.

Bollocks · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:43pm

foggyroad · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:44pm

Troll

re-emergence

inevitability

comments known to be Bullish index

Very Bullish!

ClinkinKY Basil · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:45pm

Yes, my gut tells me to expect lies, obfuscation and more lies.

Can you tell I've lost all confidence in our government?wink

----------------------------------------------------

Our President is warning about "doomsday" if $85 Billion (his idea btw:) is cut from a $16 Trillion debt.

In the grand scheme of things this represents a .005% reduction:

kingboo · Feb 20, 2013 - 1:45pm

You "conveniently" roll in here on a down day, and.....out of a sudden emotional need to save Turdites....you start spewing that "Maybe...just maybe......you are all wrong? have you Turdites ever thought about that? hmmmm?" Am i close enough so far?.......Ok......let's move on... Then (i'll para-phrase) when challenged you go on..and give the ole "Hey, i don't have an opinion either way".....otherwise known as the "I'm just sayin....."

And that, my friend, is what i mean by transparent.

Not only do you have the un-mitigated nerve to roll in here and try to turn strong hands into weak ones..........but then, THEN! you don't even have the balls to take a position??? !!!

I would put you on IGNORE............but you're just dangerous enough where your bullshit needs to be countered....

So congratulations......you have a captive audience.......... "Just sayin....."

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