Welcome to the updated TF Metals Report! We hope you enjoy the new experience.

We've changed payment processors, so any existing renewals will need to be re-subscribed after expiration. You will receive an email when this happens. If you have any questions, send a message through the Contact page.

Cutting Vacation Short

Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


SilverDog TF · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:20am

Turd's latest TTM Podcast. How to find it.

A Link where to subscribe appreciated...

Strongsidejedi redrover1 · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:21am

Good stuff on this guy's blog


Interview of the guest expert - Daniel Amerman CFA is interesting. The interview talks to the issue of the dichotomy between collapse mentality and the restructuring of the economy.

Don't blow your "dry powder" unless you know for certain that you NEED to.

Iceberg Slim · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:23am

let them play paper games. this is a great opportunity to add to your stack.

Nigel Black · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:23am

At what time are the Fed Minutes being released?

erewenguy · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:24am

Don't bounce back too fast silver. Wait a few more hours. I have a bid I want filled.

ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:24am

Please elaborate on exactly what the end game looks like if our theories are wrong. Thank you.

psi · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:25am

Saddam Hussein want to trade oil in gold. He is dead.

Gaddafi want to trade oil in gold. He is dead.

For years, the official line of China is that gold is not a good investment vehicle, the US dollar is.

Just play dead and you will be fine.

I got to go. Rush over to my local coin shop and get rid of my coins.

opticsguy · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:25am

How's the weather in Quantico, today?

Nice stop hunt down at 1980 for gold.

treefrog · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:25am

getting a nice little bounce here. little, it's early yet. will it have legs? 

SRSrocco · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:25am

TO THE GOLD & SILVER VIRGINS... I see we have some comments from NEWBIE's to Turd's site as well as to gold and silver. Calling short term moves in this totally manipulated market is quite difficult. 

Watching those two videos with David Tice who tried to sell a 1 oz Canadian Gold Maple on some Pier (I believe CA) and then a Silver Eagle at some small strip mall in front of a coin store.. makes you realize how the MONEY CHANGERS have won the battle of NEUTERING the public from the head down as it pertains to real money.

No one could guess the price of gold within 50%, and no one would buy the gold coin for $25. The same was true for the Silver Eagle.

So, you GOLD & SILVER VIRGINS who come in here now and believe that this site is a 100% WRONG, need to go outside and try and sell a Gold Eagle to the public. This is the war we are up against.

The markets are totally MANIPULATED, so if you want to go by the PAPER PRICE.. then you might as well join the 95% plus of the public who has lost the ability to know what MONEY REALLY IS.


El Gordo · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:26am

Why don't you read everything posted by our gracious host and then just do the opposite of whatever he suggests or thinks will happen. You'll get rich quick and no one will be able to figure out how you did it. 

¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:26am

I realize your comment was approved for the sole purpose of being fair overall because your only 20 minutes old but it also opens up the opportunity for all us to verbally pelt you for being smug and taunting.

But after seeing so many smart ass unoriginal trolls come on here over the years on a down metal day it doesn't seem important to respond with any velocity at all except to acknowledge your troll DNA.

Groaner · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:29am

trying to talk us into selling, eay?

Groaner · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:30am

let's see

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:31am

That end game would be physical metals returning to prices reflecting their historical value adjusted for inflation, same as it is for almost any commodity. That could mean gold back in the $500 range, though that's probably close to the low end.

Note that this is not a prediction, and I don't care to argue about why it shall or shall not come to pass. I only want to point out the possibility, however remote folks around here might think it to be, and advise caution. The most concerning posts are those from folks who suggest buying speculative assets with borrowed money, or deferring payments on necessary items to increase a 'stack'. Gives me the willies!

erewenguy SRSrocco · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:31am

I am stunned everytime I watch one of those videos. I think the latest is an offer of either a $5 bill or a silver dollar. Although not in the same league, I'm still surprised how many copper pennies are still in circulation. Sure, its more trouble than its worth to most people, but I remember pulling silver dimes out of change when I was younger. I would have been handsomely rewarded if I had been more persistent.

We have lived in a disposable society for so many decades that people have forgotten the value of most everything.

Monedas · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:34am

They couldn't panic the market .... so .... they are on to Plan B .... the glacial, slow grind down .... taking everything in it's path .... desperation time .... when you control the market .... and have unlimited Ponzi fiat .... like a crooked casino with deep pockets .... you can be a bully ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Nothing To Fear .... Monedas Is Here With You World Tour devil

Harald · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:34am

I thought I had some bad dogs, my guys are angels compared to that.

Eman Laer · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:34am

I really like these guys. Sorry if this has been posted already, I haven't been reading gloomy pm sites lately. :)

gotgoldreport.com / By Gene Arensberg / February 19, 2013

HOUSTON – Yesterday we released a new Got Gold Report to Subscribers covering recent changes in the positioning of the largest traders of futures on the COMEX in New York. In that report we detail that a majority of the recent selling pressure for gold futures has been coming from what many would say is an unusual source, if the record-high short positions taken by those traders is any guide (which it almost certainly is).

Perhaps more important than the record size of the gross short positions now held by normally net long Funds (Managed Money traders) is what has consistently occurred in recent (gold bull market) history when the the trend following Funds have built up overly large pure short positions.

Unless a quantum shift is underway, which seems implausible, those very high short positions should become the “highest of high octane rally fuel” once “The Funds” believe the downward impulse for gold is exhausted.

What is also a bit of a “tell” in our view is that the very high short positions put on by Managed Money traders has been gold-specific. As we conclude in the special Got Gold Report article: “… we have come to the conclusion that the Funds are in the process of pulling off one of the great head fakes of our trading career. … Either that or they have correctly positioned for the gold market to collapse while forgetting to do the same for silver.” 

Since sending the report out we have received multiple requests from colleagues we respect and admire to share our work in the public domain – an honor we cannot in good conscience deny. So, below is a link to the entire article, including all the important charts and data, in PDF format.


Save_America1st · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:35am

This is awesome. Love the chance to cost average in some more shiny phyzz today! Glad I held back a little dry powder over the weekend so I can grab some more. Thanks EE, et al. or whatever else the causes of this is. 

Tempted to trade in a gold Buffalo at this GSR (55+) for a pile of silver Buffalos. I can get about 53 oz's for it right now. That's 10 oz's more of silver than when I bought the gold Buffalo. Not too shabby a trade. Once the GSR drops towards and under 30:1 I'm hoping to be able to flip a little silver back for some gold to balance out the phyzz stack a little better before I send it all to the bottom of Lake Nobody Knows. wink

Thoughts on this plan anyone??? ****(excludingthe 2 jokers who became members within the last hour and are already bashing the crew). You don't count for jack shit at this point if that's how you're going to show up today. 

Good luck everyone and have a kick ass day no matter how you take advantage of the sale! BTFD and keep stackin'!!!

agNau · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:37am

Remember this from somewhere. *PARAPHRASED (unofficial) "when everything the public believes is a lie......"

Dawg · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:37am


tpbeta · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:38am

I would like to know. Not here, I suspect.

ag1969 · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:41am

You took the time to join this blog and throw out a point of view that you don't care to discuss? If we were take gold's historical value and adjust for inflation, wouldn't it be much higher than it is now? Do you have any idea how much money has been printed? This is the exact reason that we stack it. Because if we carry your assumption through to the "end game" gold will be dramatically higher than it is now. I don't know how you can put "inflation adjusted" and "$500" in the same sentence.

Groaner · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:44am

print some more fiat and rush in... quick!

tmosley · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:46am

>Historical value adjusted for inflation


Pick one.

For silver, maybe that would be the case.

bunnytoujours · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:46am

¨poeple know the price of everything and the value of nothing¨

¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:48am

Welcome aboard!

It's too bad the MagicCereal part doesn't show, very unique.yes

Prize Fighter · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:48am

The long awaited gap is definitely closed and trolls are sprouting. What a coincidence. Now that I know how to capture chart snapshots and post them, I will do just that if I see any gap ups again but for the time being I'm ready for the rocket ride whenever you all are.

edit: These things do tend to overshoot though. A few dimes lower before FOMC wouldn't surprise me at all but that's not really saying anything.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services
11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
11/8 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
11/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Recent Comments

by Turd Ferguson, 19 min 34 sec ago
Craig: ...
by Mickey, 27 min 1 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 48 min 41 sec ago
ata ...
by sengfarmer, 1 hour 52 min ago
by atarangi, 5 hours 10 min ago