Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  548 Comments


Feb 21, 2013 - 7:02am

Thanks Puck

Thanks for the list of empires. 

I had thought of Rome, but not the others. They were all pretty damned powerful in their day, ruling the western world for 400 years, until they stretched things to thin, used up their conquered territories, and began debasing money.

Military might to hold things together? Soldiers, suppliers and mechanics have to be paid. An army marches on its stomach. Good boots? These represent a thousand commodities that the military depends on for its strength. And all depends on a stable system of exchange. 

Is the US planning to conquer China to save the dollar? It costs 800 billion each year just to exist and "police" the world. How can the US print enough to conquer Asia without crashing the economy? Commodities must be bought with real wealth, not paper. Bernanke has kept the system somewhat balanced so far with printing and manipulation of commodities, but that is a path that gets steeper each month.

I am not convinced that the US military has the funding to keep the dollar in power, though they will try. 

What's up with metals. No morning smash? Are they giving us a breather today?

ClinkinKY achmachat
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:09am

huh?

Don't "beat around the bush". Come out and say it if you have something to say.wink

indosil
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:11am

Outside Reversal Day?

Silver $28.90..Gold $1574

Outside Reversal Day?....or simple short covering initiated at the London Session??

The Green Manalishi
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:11am

Observations on business in the UK

Ok, thought I'd give you a little update on my observations as a small business owner of an IT firm here in the UK - following on from the discussion a few threads ago. It's a handy business to be in because I'm on the road visiting a whole smorgasbord of different businesses, and mostly dealing with the owners - who are not only clients, but have become friends over the years. I thought I would re-visit this as I've witnessed a big divergence over the recent past.

First observation I have made is that in general, business is poor - especially since Christmas for most of the small businesses I am dealing with, especially if it involves retail. Many of the owners of these businesses are the older guys who have been through many recessions in the past, and are realising that this time is different.

I'm now being actively engaged in discussions on the economy, metals etc. I've casually mentioned these things in the past and I was listened to politely but not taken seriously. I now have been taken out to lunch by two separate clients who purely want to seek out my thoughts on the world we discuss here every day. Examples of these struggling businesses are discount motor discount shops, commercial estate agents, static holiday caravan parks, furniture stores and IT businesses :(

Anecdotally, one of my clients said he had been to the bank manager to extend the overdraft as the corporation tax was due. While chatting how things were going with him, the bank manager said that if you had asked him three months ago he would have said things were great. However, he is now inundated with requests from small businesses to extend a line of credit one way or another. He is also said he is finding that the bosses have no personal money left to put into their businesses to keep things going. My client asked him if he thought in his opinion that people were holding on to their money and not spending it? He replied "No, people have no money."

Contrast this with two other clients who I've witnessed to be booming, and have never been busier. Client one, a Mortgage Broker. He is inundated with business, the local property market is apparently booming. I was in there and people were coming in to borrow hundreds and hundreds of thousands of pounds to extend their buy to let portfolio, or re-mortgage and equity withdraw from their house, or just buying a new place. It's as if 5 years ago never happened. In my area of England, we haven't had a house price crash like you have had in the States - in fact I think the booming London market has sent all the Londoners who have sold up to move down here. The guys in this particular Mortgage Broker are generally younger, and will not entertain that things will come to an abrupt end.

The other which really surprised me was a Renault Main Dealer who is so busy they don't know what to do with themselves and are taking on more staff. Of course, these cars are bought on finance.

So in conclusion, if you are selling money to buy stuff, you are booming. If not you are struggling.

If Max Keiser's call of a bond market collapse by April is coming, this will change very quickly in my opinion.

By the way, I sold my main house 2 years ago, because I believe we are in a massive housing bubble here and I realised I would never pay off the mortgage the way things were going. I sold and the massive amount of equity I didn't earn is now at the bottom of Christchurch Harbour :)

However, I have a modest Buy to let which is on a mortgage so cheap it is not worth paying off (even though I can). All is not rosy in BTL land though. I was informed yesterday that the 3rd Tenant in two years cannot pay the rent.

I envisage those with a large BTL portfolio could soon be hit with a double wammy of higher interest rate payments and tenants who will pay to feed themselves rather than pay the rent.

achmachat
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:12am

BUSH!

well... I thought your first post has to be approved before you can openly post.

are you telling me that fake Eric King's posts were read by a moderator and approved?

ClinkinKY, I like infographics :-p

nathan1234 Lumpy
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:13am

Reply to Lumpy

All the other paper currencies that failed in the past did not have the modern day military fire power that we have to help negotiate.

Just another goon/thug/criminal/murderer that will bite the dust soon , along with the paper currency

maravich44 ClinkinKY
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:18am

Feb 21, 2013 - 7:36am

@Keg

True on Peter Schiff. But they weren't the metals market. Great somebody can make you money on other markets to have you put most of it back in another market and loose it. Of course, nobody has lost anything unless they have gotten scared. I'm not blaming him. I Like his general thesis's but he was wrong on timing, and the effect of QE3 as I remember. As I have said that we are in unprecedented times, in unprecedented markets, with unprecedented conditions. Even the experts are fighting among themselves to understand the dynamics of this market. Most of the guys I listen to very closely, do not try to time the market and never heard any of them tell their people, it's TIME now to go in if you have been sitting on the side. They also have also issued a cautionary note about keeping healthy %'s between metals, other investments and cash. I am guilty sometimes of tossing the cautionary notes to the side and just looking at the bull side. I suspects many of you are the same.

As I said I like Peter, alot. I consider his analysis like I do others. Will continue to listen.

Whoever asked for the link, I haven't listened to him lately. Tons of interviews always on youtube and his site. I believe he is in the camp that everything is going to melt down.

ag1969
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:36am

LMAO

How to Get Rid of a Troll
marakai lickspitler
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:51am

Go home to mama

Get a life moron, the only dick here is you.

Groaner
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:57am

see if we get another hit this morning right after 8am

all I know is that when the metals reverse there are so many shorts that will be running for cover we could see $100 move to the upside in one day.

ag1969
Feb 21, 2013 - 7:58am

Groaner

You mean $100 move in silver...........right?

Groaner ag1969
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:00am

@ag1969

of course not,, copper..

yeah that would be nice.. someday..

Groaner
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:06am
Bollocks
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:07am

MAJOR TOP IN STOCKS & MAJOR BOTTOM IN GOLD

"Investors just need to get through the bottoming process of this yearly cycle low. Considering that gold is now on the 15th week of its intermediate cycle, which usually lasts about 18-25 weeks We should be getting close.

Actually we are probably closer than it appears by that previous statement. The last intermediate cycle ran a bit long at 25 weeks. Long cycles are usually followed by a short cycle. So I would expect this cycle to run a bit short at 16-18 weeks.

All in all, I expect a final bottom sometime in the next 5-10 days. And once that bottom has formed gold should be ready to break out of the consolidation zone it has been in over the last year and a half and get busy delivering the second leg of that T-1 pattern".

https://goldscents.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/major-top-in-stocks-major-bott...

Groaner
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:12am
Chevy Thunder
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:15am

Question for TMosley and all forum members

I am posting this publicly in hopes of getting some feedback from the entire forum. It's a rather interesting topic and I think it deserves some discussion. About six months ago, TMosley posted a rather dire prediction that was so outlandish that I bookmarked it.

Anyway, here's the post:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/35405#comment-35405

As we all know, TMosley is an incredibly intelligent man and one of the foremost scholars of the precious metals market. Rarely do you find a post of his that isn't educational, insightful or prescient. As such, when he calls for "the end" you better listen, and that's exactly what I did after he posted this.

For fear that the "paper price" was either going to zero or to $50 (as he predicted),* I sold all my entire holdings of PSLV and bought physical silver with the proceeds. From his post, I inferred that ONLY the "paper" price was going to zero, not the "physical" price, which is why I did the conversion. However, I went to my local bullion store yesterday and my dealer told me that the "paper" price and the physical price were basically the same, with a small exception for costs involving delivery and dealers making a profit (nothing wrong with that!). I also asked my dealer if there has been an "industrial panic" or a major default of the COMEX, and he told me that the COMEX was just an exchange of metals, and that a "default" of the COMEX would mean nothing. Apparently, the COMEX only stores readily available metals for "ease of transaction" and that if it wasn't able to deliver the metal promised by the seller, it would mean nothing - the SELLER is ultimately responsible for that delivery and the COMEX could actually make a sizable profit by charging the seller fees and interest until it secures delivery to the buyer. Again, my dealer told me the COMEX was "just an exchange," and its inventory is merely for ease of deliveries.

So.... my question in all of this..... what is it about TMosely's post that I'm missing? As we all know, he's an authority on the metals market, and I honestly feel like maybe I'm just not understanding what this VERY URGENT call for "THE END" was all about. Either that, or my bullion dealer is full of shit.

Please help me understand.....

Best of luck to everyone today and God bless your family during these strange days....

-------------------------------------------------

*When TMosley made the prediction that "paper" silver would go to either zero or $50, what does this mean? It seems to suggest both possible outcomes - like saying silver will either go up from here or down from here. Is there something deeper here that I'm not understanding?

ClinkinKY
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:15am

My new dog. I've named him "Chevy Thunder":)...

...hey, you asked for a comment. Snarkiness deserves snarkinesswink

Bollocks
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:24am

@ClinkinKY

Who's the goth trying to throttle him? surprise

¤
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:26am

Egypt's Military Grows Impatient With Morsi: Coup Inevitable

Egypt's military signals impatience with president Posted: Feb 20, 2013 3:57 PM EST By HAMZA HENDAWI
Associated Press

CAIRO (AP) - Egypt's powerful military is showing signs of growing impatience with the country's Islamist leaders, indirectly criticizing their policies and issuing thinly veiled threats that it might seize power again.

The tension is raising the specter of another military intervention much like the one in 2011, when generals replaced longtime authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak after they sided with anti-regime protesters in their 18-day popular uprising.

The strains come at a time when many Egyptians are despairing of an imminent end to the crippling political impasse between President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood group on one side, and the mostly secular and liberal opposition on the other.

The tug of war between the two camps is being waged against a grim backdrop of spreading unrest, rising crime and a worsening economy.

"In essence, the military will not allow national stability or its own institutional privileges to come under threat from a breakdown in Egypt's social fabric or a broad-based civil strife," said Michael W. Hanna, an Egypt expert from the New York-based Century Foundation.

"This is not an ideological army or one that seeks to destabilize civilian governance. ... But it is also not an army that will sit by while the country reaches the tipping point on the path to civil strife."

The latest friction began when a rumor circulated that Morsi planned to replace Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, his defense minister and the army chief, because of his resistance to bringing the military under the sway of the Brotherhood-dominated government.

El-Sissi may have angered Morsi last month when he signaled the military's readiness to step in, warning that the state would collapse if no solution was found to the political crisis. Pointedly, he also spoke of how the military faces a dilemma in marrying the task of protecting state installations in restive locations with its resolve not to harm peaceful protesters.

In another provocative comment earlier this month, el-Sissi was quoted as saying he would never allow the armed forces to be dominated by the Brotherhood, or any other group, stressing the military's national identity.

A Brotherhood spokesman, Yasser Mehrez, dismissed claims that the group sought to bring the military under its sway. "This is old talk that has been repeated over and over again," he said.

The rumor about el-Sissi's dismissal was widely suspected to be a trial balloon floated by the Muslim Brotherhood to gauge military and public reaction.

The military did not officially respond. But widely published comments attributed to an anonymous military source threatened that any attempt to remove the military's top commanders would be "suicide" for the government and spoke of widespread anger within the armed forces.

The source was quoted as saying the public will not accept any meddling in the military and will close ranks to counter any pressures or challenges....

https://www.turnto10.com/story/21288998/egypts-military-signals-impatien...

achmachat
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:26am

it's good to have Brits here

I haven't seen the word "throttle" used in its original meaning for ages!

The Green Manalishi
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:29am

Ben Davies and Alasdair Macleod

Some more Brits for you Achmachat!

Ben Davies (Part 1/2): on nominal GDP targeting
boatman
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:34am

just a entitlement funny to lighten up the day

a little apropo music to listen to while on this page:

Obamaville Song
ClinkinKY Bollocks
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:38am

@ Bollocks---Nice catch...

...didn't even notice that:)

His "bitch"?

Mickey
Feb 21, 2013 - 8:46am

Faber

Faber is one of the top guys. The larger investment funds hire him for his advice. Russell has been around longer than anyone else and has been pounding on table for gold since rally began and saying ride the bucking bull bronco do not sell.

Sinclair and Dines also,

go with the guys who brought you to this party,


Feb 21, 2013 - 8:56am

Chevy

I wouldn't pretend to speak for TMos, but here is my effort to answer your question as forthrightly as I can. I am assuming your question was asked in good faith, and so will do my best to help you with a genuine answer. 

There is a significant range of disagreement within the PM community regarding the eventual relationship between "paper" price of PM's and physical price. TMos is a strong advocate for the camp that says, essentially, "The leveraged paper games of the cartel will ultimately come to a crashing halt and when this system implodes, holders of paper silver will be left with nothing and only those who hold physical will profit". He believes this firmly, so when he calls for people to get out of all forms of paper, he is giving advice which he believes will save them from financial ruin. This is a "pure stackers" approach.

On the other end of the spectrum are PM people who believe that ability of the Cartel to control paper price is ultimately limited by economic and supply constraints, and that paper assets will eventually overcome the interference of the manipulators and will rise to a great degree, to reflect the true free-market value of gold and silver. These investment will therefore, according to this camp, be extraordinarily profitable. This is the "traders" mentality.

Obviously, many people here have a foot in both camps, including yours truly. We buy physical in our possession as a great investment as well as a hedge against the first scenario (and other potentially difficult situations), but we may also invest in paper instruments (sometimes leveraged) to attemtp to take advantage of and profit from the second scenario. Equally obviously, none of us has perfect knowledge of the future and therefore all of us can be wrong on any given point. Additionally, none of us has any clue as to timing- we could be right on the mechanics of how this will play out, but a whopping 5 years off on the timing. 

I will say that, in my opinion, investment vehicles like PHYS, PSLV, or CEF which are 100% backed by allocated physical metal would survive an implosion of the Comex with flying colors, and would probably be the safest of paper investments. These would only lose out if the entire stock market blinked out and you had no record of ownership, or if governmental confiscation made them targets for seizure. But in the latter case, holders of physical metals would be sweating in the same boat. Just my opinion, hope this helps clarify things somewhat.

Chevy Thunder
Feb 21, 2013 - 9:06am

Thank You Pinging 4 Fjords

Thanks, good Sir. I appreciate the time you took to write that. I will admit that I'm not 100% sure that I understand TMosley's original comment (even after your reply), but any insight from you or others is always appreciated.

God bless you and your family....

indosil
Feb 21, 2013 - 9:09am

Gold And Silver Are 'Not' Selling Off (Yet)

It's that time of day. Commodities exchanges are opening. And yet, today has a different feel to it. For some strange indiscernible reason, the incessant offer on gold and silver that appears every morning for most of the recent weeks has yet to appear. Did the central bankers get busted? Are too many people aware of the manipulation? Did a 3% drop in China spook them back at the margin? Who knows - its early yet...

Maximillion
Feb 21, 2013 - 9:10am

Who cares if they keep smashing the price

Mope has been around for thousands of years, the aim IMO is just to see through it, which is a lot easier today thanks to sites like this!

https://www.corbettreport.com/psyops-101-a-brief-history-of-fake-news/

Beastly Stack
Feb 21, 2013 - 9:20am

IT Is Funny

All the traders coming out with all their calls and especially the "I told you so's"

Love the Monday morning QB!

Turd I hope you had a relaxing day yesterday- why even bother giving the TROLLS attention. Some of them are just funny and make me laugh.

I posted some interesting things to watch today, for those interested.

https://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/2013/02/most-important.html

Great Day to all!

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