Cutting Vacation Short

Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest:

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have:

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dyna mo hum
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:22pm


"Beware of strangers and nit shits offering advice" Your mileage may vary.

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:23pm


"It Only Takes Two Charts To Explain Why Gold Is Collapsing / By Joe Weisenthal | Feb. 20, 2013, 4:50 AM

Gold has been falling, and as we just mentioned, it’s about to enter a “death cross”, which is a technical analysis term that means it’s fallen hard, and people think it will fall more.

But while diagonal lines on a chart are fun, there are fundamental reasons why gold is declining.

It basically comes down to two things, that can be be expressed clearly in chart form.

The first is real interest rates. When real interest rates are extremely low or falling, that’s good for gold. And there’s an intuitive reason for that. Collapsing real interest rates mean you’re not getting paid much for being in currency, and the real economy probably isn’t offering that much either. So, why not be in gold?

Here’s a chart comparing gold in recent year to the yield on the 10-year TIPS (inflation adjusted bonds). As you can see, gold has been a mirror image of the TIPS yield, and now that real interest rates are ticking higher, gold is seeing weakness.

The other big driver of gold is fear. When people are in a panic, something in our reptilian brains tells us to buy gold, which is why it’s been around as a quasi-currency for so long."


Yet they do not explain the price decline or sideways action from 18xx.00, if the relationship is truly inverse.

ancientmoney NonoverlappingMagicCereal
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:25pm

@Nonoverlapping . . .

"I do not think you would."


I have an open mind, and I am willing to reconsider my theory, if yours is better. Try me.

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:26pm

SAC Capital Partners Bets A

SAC Capital Partners Bets A Quarter Billion On Gold, Silver, & Mining Shares / By Tekoa Da Silva / February 19, 2013

While the mainstream media continues to spew out bearish news and headlines on precious metals and (especially) mining shares, SAC Capital Partners LP, a $20 billion dollar group of hedge funds founded by Stephen A. Cohen, quietly positioned itself in over $240 million dollars worth of gold, silver, and mining share investments during Q4 2012.

Of great interest is the structure of those positions. They are indicating, that the firm is expecting a massive spike in both gold and silver, as well as a staggering move higher in the mining shares.

Starting out, the firm increased it’s holdings in gold and silver mining shares from roughly $54.9 million, to $122.2 million, a total increase of over $65 million. Companies included many of the major producers such as AngloGold, Barrick, Goldcorp, and surprisingly, included junior producers, such as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

-The firm took an over $20 million dollar “straddle” position on the SLV ETF, which indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of silver—either up or down.

-The firm took an over $61 million dollar “straddle” position on the GLD, which similar to the SLV position, indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of gold—either up or down.


Urban Roman
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:26pm

They're trying to print oil, as well.

It might just work, until someone tries to take delivery on a tank of gas.

Did Someone Intentionally Try To Crash The Crude Contract?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/20/2013 12:35 -0500

-- ZeroHedge

And that "ignore user" button sure is a good idea. Thanks, Turd and your webmonkeys, for making that feature available.

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:27pm

I am truly amazed

The paper price goes down. The sky has fallen.

Yet central banks and countries are buying PHYSICAL gold all over the world. Does anyone here think they are now quaking in their boots right now? Wondering if they should sell for fiat? Heck no - they are currently backing up trucks (and planes).

How many times...... you buy physical because you are your own central bank and or sovereign individual.

If you need to feel good ALL the time then might I suggest a magazine and a closed door. (Catholics might try confession instead; even for having such thoughts.

Only when enough physical has been bought and a shortage is seen does the sun rise. This event should be welcomed with both arms.

If you need to see green everyday then you are A) delusional and B) in the wrong game.

This is about a complete breakdown in the status quo. Not a stroll in the park flipping your Gold coin and thinking what a clever investor you are.

This is the financial equivalent of the Somme - it is not going to be pretty. Get used to it or get out.


Feb 20, 2013 - 1:32pm

Troll Blathers.....

"That's great - but as you point out, people are suggesting it and people are doing it. They are doing so because of the certainty expressed here. I do not believe it is intentional, and did not suggest or even imply that it was, but it's happening. Perhaps unlike you, I don't see villains around every corner. I do not doubt the sincerity of the people here or the site's owner."

Nobody is suggesting that one go into debt to buy PM's. Your only purpose here is to cast doubt on people here and the site's owner. Stop your retarded defense of your blatantly trollish behavior. I don't see villains around every corner, I just know a troll when I see one. I am sure your apologist tone will curry some favor for you while the regulars tell me I should not be mean to newbies.

I am not saying or implying that you are a newbie, I am simply suggesting that it may be the case. I did not mean to call you a douchebag, I am just politely suggesting that you maybe consider the possibility.

I don't really care to argue with you so don't bother. I just want to drop in my point and not have to defend it while I engage in an apology tour.

Whatever troll.

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:33pm


I hear ya' on that.

I haven't pulled the trigger yet and it's only a few hundred bucks I'm fishing with. I'm not wading in and throwing any big lures into the shark infested waters just yet.

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:34pm


Why, when there are so many good comments posted that go unanswered, do so many people in this community feel compelled to respond to those who post only to antagonize? The "Ignore User" tab is infinitely less effective in combating the antagonists than just not responding to their comments. Ignore them by ignoring them.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ancientmoney
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:35pm

I have an open mind, and I am

I have an open mind, and I am willing to reconsider my theory, if yours is better. Try me.

Alright - but I'm afraid you will be disappointed. As I've hinted at before - I don't have any prognostications. Maybe the problem is that this is more or less a 'financial' site, and financial media is all about buy/sell predictions. I think it's all a bunch of nonsense. I don't believe in hard Efficient Markets theory, but I think as a rule of thumb it's pretty good.

The information about central bank policy is no secret, and yet we haven't seen it reflected to the prices of assets you mentioned for over two years. One reasonable explanation is that the monetary policy is already priced in. Again, everyone here will have reasons for why that isn't a reasonable explanation, but I find their certainty stunning. I just don't think they can know.

Here's one point on which we agree: the only way asset prices are consistent with the theories espoused at places like this and zero hedge is that they are being manipulated. I think it's fairly unlikely, but what do I know? However, the people that are certain of manipulation are, in my opinion, so emotionally wedded to their ideology and existing investments that it is clouding their thinking. I don't make the accusation lightly either: for evidence of the emotionally charged sentiment please refer to any of the responses to my posts in this thread and judge for yourself if they were merited.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Recent Comments

by Joseph Warren, 16 min 18 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 1 hour 9 min ago
by ratioarbitrage, 1 hour 21 min ago
by lakedweller2, 1 hour 28 min ago

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 21 min 22 sec ago
by NW VIEW, Sep 19, 2019 - 11:07pm
by Boggs, Sep 19, 2019 - 10:35pm
by Boggs, Sep 19, 2019 - 10:21pm
by NW VIEW, Sep 19, 2019 - 9:29pm