Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

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  548 Comments

Dyna mo hum
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:22pm

DYNA MO SEZ..

"Beware of strangers and nit shits offering advice" Your mileage may vary.

tyberious
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:23pm

Analysis

"It Only Takes Two Charts To Explain Why Gold Is Collapsing

businessinsider.com / By Joe Weisenthal | Feb. 20, 2013, 4:50 AM

Gold has been falling, and as we just mentioned, it’s about to enter a “death cross”, which is a technical analysis term that means it’s fallen hard, and people think it will fall more.

But while diagonal lines on a chart are fun, there are fundamental reasons why gold is declining.

It basically comes down to two things, that can be be expressed clearly in chart form.

The first is real interest rates. When real interest rates are extremely low or falling, that’s good for gold. And there’s an intuitive reason for that. Collapsing real interest rates mean you’re not getting paid much for being in currency, and the real economy probably isn’t offering that much either. So, why not be in gold?

Here’s a chart comparing gold in recent year to the yield on the 10-year TIPS (inflation adjusted bonds). As you can see, gold has been a mirror image of the TIPS yield, and now that real interest rates are ticking higher, gold is seeing weakness.

The other big driver of gold is fear. When people are in a panic, something in our reptilian brains tells us to buy gold, which is why it’s been around as a quasi-currency for so long."

READ MORE

Yet they do not explain the price decline or sideways action from 18xx.00, if the relationship is truly inverse.

ancientmoneyNonoverlappingMagicCereal
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:25pm

@Nonoverlapping . . .

"I do not think you would."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have an open mind, and I am willing to reconsider my theory, if yours is better. Try me.

tyberious
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:26pm

SAC Capital Partners Bets A

SAC Capital Partners Bets A Quarter Billion On Gold, Silver, & Mining Shares

bullmarketthinking.com / By Tekoa Da Silva / February 19, 2013

While the mainstream media continues to spew out bearish news and headlines on precious metals and (especially) mining shares, SAC Capital Partners LP, a $20 billion dollar group of hedge funds founded by Stephen A. Cohen, quietly positioned itself in over $240 million dollars worth of gold, silver, and mining share investments during Q4 2012.

Of great interest is the structure of those positions. They are indicating, that the firm is expecting a massive spike in both gold and silver, as well as a staggering move higher in the mining shares.

Starting out, the firm increased it’s holdings in gold and silver mining shares from roughly $54.9 million, to $122.2 million, a total increase of over $65 million. Companies included many of the major producers such as AngloGold, Barrick, Goldcorp, and surprisingly, included junior producers, such as Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

-The firm took an over $20 million dollar “straddle” position on the SLV ETF, which indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of silver—either up or down.

-The firm took an over $61 million dollar “straddle” position on the GLD, which similar to the SLV position, indicates the firm believes we will see a massive and volatile spike coming in the price of gold—either up or down.

READ MORE

Urban Roman
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:26pm

They're trying to print oil, as well.

It might just work, until someone tries to take delivery on a tank of gas.

Did Someone Intentionally Try To Crash The Crude Contract?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/20/2013 12:35 -0500

-- ZeroHedge

[edit]
And that "ignore user" button sure is a good idea. Thanks, Turd and your webmonkeys, for making that feature available.

Bugzy
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:27pm

I am truly amazed

The paper price goes down. The sky has fallen.

Yet central banks and countries are buying PHYSICAL gold all over the world. Does anyone here think they are now quaking in their boots right now? Wondering if they should sell for fiat? Heck no - they are currently backing up trucks (and planes).

How many times...... you buy physical because you are your own central bank and or sovereign individual.

If you need to feel good ALL the time then might I suggest a magazine and a closed door. (Catholics might try confession instead; even for having such thoughts.

Only when enough physical has been bought and a shortage is seen does the sun rise. This event should be welcomed with both arms.

If you need to see green everyday then you are A) delusional and B) in the wrong game.

This is about a complete breakdown in the status quo. Not a stroll in the park flipping your Gold coin and thinking what a clever investor you are.

This is the financial equivalent of the Somme - it is not going to be pretty. Get used to it or get out.

Bugzy

ag1969
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:32pm

Troll Blathers.....

"That's great - but as you point out, people are suggesting it and people are doing it. They are doing so because of the certainty expressed here. I do not believe it is intentional, and did not suggest or even imply that it was, but it's happening. Perhaps unlike you, I don't see villains around every corner. I do not doubt the sincerity of the people here or the site's owner."

Nobody is suggesting that one go into debt to buy PM's. Your only purpose here is to cast doubt on people here and the site's owner. Stop your retarded defense of your blatantly trollish behavior. I don't see villains around every corner, I just know a troll when I see one. I am sure your apologist tone will curry some favor for you while the regulars tell me I should not be mean to newbies.

I am not saying or implying that you are a newbie, I am simply suggesting that it may be the case. I did not mean to call you a douchebag, I am just politely suggesting that you maybe consider the possibility.

I don't really care to argue with you so don't bother. I just want to drop in my point and not have to defend it while I engage in an apology tour.

Whatever troll.

¤
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:33pm

zman

I hear ya' on that.

I haven't pulled the trigger yet and it's only a few hundred bucks I'm fishing with. I'm not wading in and throwing any big lures into the shark infested waters just yet.

Igiveup2
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:34pm

Why

Why, when there are so many good comments posted that go unanswered, do so many people in this community feel compelled to respond to those who post only to antagonize? The "Ignore User" tab is infinitely less effective in combating the antagonists than just not responding to their comments. Ignore them by ignoring them.

NonoverlappingMagicCerealancientmoney
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:35pm

I have an open mind, and I am

I have an open mind, and I am willing to reconsider my theory, if yours is better. Try me.

Alright - but I'm afraid you will be disappointed. As I've hinted at before - I don't have any prognostications. Maybe the problem is that this is more or less a 'financial' site, and financial media is all about buy/sell predictions. I think it's all a bunch of nonsense. I don't believe in hard Efficient Markets theory, but I think as a rule of thumb it's pretty good.

The information about central bank policy is no secret, and yet we haven't seen it reflected to the prices of assets you mentioned for over two years. One reasonable explanation is that the monetary policy is already priced in. Again, everyone here will have reasons for why that isn't a reasonable explanation, but I find their certainty stunning. I just don't think they can know.

Here's one point on which we agree: the only way asset prices are consistent with the theories espoused at places like this and zero hedge is that they are being manipulated. I think it's fairly unlikely, but what do I know? However, the people that are certain of manipulation are, in my opinion, so emotionally wedded to their ideology and existing investments that it is clouding their thinking. I don't make the accusation lightly either: for evidence of the emotionally charged sentiment please refer to any of the responses to my posts in this thread and judge for yourself if they were merited.

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