Cutting Vacation Short

Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest:

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have:

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


NonoverlappingMagicCereal ReachWest
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:04pm


It seems like the fundamental disconnect between me and the folks here is that I don't think you can know any of this stuff for sure. You bothered quoting me, but did you read anything other than the quoted text? I did not say that anyone here is wrong about any particular point, I merely suggested the possibility. Why is that so misguided or malevolent? The degree of emotion that this suggestion elicits, I think, is pretty revealing.

Anyway, of course I have a point of view, but not in the sense of most people here. I don't have any hard predictions about the future, and believe it is hubristic to do so. I have lots of opinions about lots of other matters, but when it comes to the global economy and commodity prices, it is simply not possible to make the prognostications that are regularly made here with any degree of certainty.

thedukes Basil
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:07pm

I beg to differ

I have followed Santa since 2003 and attended 4 of his annual meetings and know the guy is genuine and is doing the best he can in a market full of obstacles. His 10 year prediction of gold hitting 1650 speaks volumes all by itself.

"I have been following Sinclair for many years, and his predictions are just as often wrong as right. " Perhaps you can name a few.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal kingboo
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:08pm

you may not think you're

you may not think you're transparent.....but you are. I have windshields that are more difficult to see through than you.....

Please enlighten me, I am genuinely curious what you believe my motives are.

people don't come here to get swayed out of metals.......they come here because they ALREADY believe the system is going to shit and together we are looking for support in numbers....and solutions......

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:10pm


I was nice at first, but everyone here knows that you signed up with the sole intention of being an asshole. You insinuated that the tone here is to talk people into borrowing fiat to buy PM's. Nothing could be further from the truth. Every time someones suggests that they themselves are thinking of going into debt to buy PM's, everyone comes out of the woodwork to tell that person why they should not go into debt to buy PM's. You are a douchebag. Your facts are wrong and your comments are fucking stupid.

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:13pm

Wringing out the weakest hands

Wringing out the weakest of hands immediately before the wheels come off the cart has been predicted for several years, hold onto your seats the ride will be one for a lifetime.

The Obozo panic over sequestration is really a joke, though nobody pays any attention to this Joker and nobody cares if this president is in eternal campaign mode, now talking about vetoing his own budget reduction idea from a year ago, you can't make this shit up, what a time to be alive.

ancientmoney NonoverlappingMagicCereal
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:13pm

@Nonoverlapping . . .

Not sure how old you are, or how much you have studied markets, economics, finance, etc. I am 61 and have studied for last 15 years.

I have seen continuous degradation of the west's finances. I have seen the manufactories leave the western shores primarily for the orient. The debt is face-ripped-off devastating. I have watched as laws are overturned to allow the bankers anything they want/need to stay upright. I have watched the elites hand over $17,000,000,000,000 to the TBTF banks since 2008. I have watched unemployment rise to 18% (if counted as it was pre-Clinton). I have seen China buying gold with a fever. I have seen China tell their citizens to buy it, and silver. I have seen the power-elite try to overturn parts of the Bill of Rights, so as to secure their own lives.

It seems to me that there is little place left to put one's lifetime of earnings except into physical metals, land, and stored energy.

Maybe your studies yield other ideas. I'd like to hear them. thank you.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal ag1969
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:17pm

I was nice at first, but

I was nice at first, but everyone here knows that you signed up with the sole intention of being an asshole.

I apologize if anything I have said has come off that way.

Every time someones suggests that they themselves are thinking of going into debt to buy PM's, everyone comes out of the woodwork to tell that person why they should not go into debt to buy PM's.

That's great - but as you point out, people are suggesting it and people are doing it. They are doing so because of the certainty expressed here. I do not believe it is intentional, and did not suggest or even imply that it was, but it's happening. Perhaps unlike you, I don't see villains around every corner. I do not doubt the sincerity of the people here or the site's owner.

You are a douchebag. Your facts are wrong and your comments are fucking stupid.

I am sorry you feel that way.

foggyroad Eman Laer
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:19pm

Read Again; salient point!

Thanks, Eman Laer.

Had to repost!

What is also a bit of a “tell” in our view is that the very high short positions put on by Managed Money traders has been gold-specific. As we conclude in the special Got Gold Report article: “… we have come to the conclusion that the Funds are in the process of pulling off one of the great head fakes of our trading career. … Either that or they have correctly positioned for the gold market to collapse while forgetting to do the same for silver.”

Since sending the report out we have received multiple requests from colleagues we respect and admire to share our work in the public domain – an honor we cannot in good conscience deny. So, below is a link to the entire article, including all the important charts and data, in PDF format.

Please read bold print. Eman posted this very interesting conclusion, re. 'managed money', positioning in COT. Click link..
NonoverlappingMagicCereal ancientmoney
Feb 20, 2013 - 1:21pm

Maybe your studies yield

Maybe your studies yield other ideas. I'd like to hear them. thank you.

I do not think you would. Although I read a good deal of material like this site, most of my 'study' is of material written by economists, including some which are (gasp!) non-Austrian. I know that such heresy is not tolerated around these parts :)

Feb 20, 2013 - 1:22pm

Re: Rumors of a hedge fund blow up leading to PM rout

.This may be true. Lynn Energy (Line) declined in pre market action to well over
$1.25. Then it recovered during normal hours and is now up $0.15 It seems obvious that some entity simply sold Line at pre market "market order" where there is little volume to sustain such a dumping.
Just my take.


By Stephen Kirkland, Daniel Kruger and Moming Zhou

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Silver and oil tumbled more than 2 percent to lead the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities to its biggest decline in almost six weeks amid speculation a hedge fund was selling positions. U.S. benchmark stock indexes fell from five-year highs and New Zealand’s dollar weakened.

“There is a rumor that a fund is blowing up,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “Metals are getting hit and it’s spreading over to oil.”

The S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since October 2007 yesterday and ended the session trading for 15.1 times reported earnings, the most-expensive level since July 2011.
The benchmark gauge of U.S. equities is less than 3 percent below its record high and is up about 7 percent in 2013, beating a 4.6 percent gain in the MSCI Asia Pacific and a 3.4 percent rise in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

‘Too Far’

“The market has moved too far,” Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $20 billion. “We need to take a breather. Even good, solid economic reports are probably not living up to the expectations. It doesn’t mean that we’ll see a selloff. Yet we’ll probably move sideways.” An S&P gauge of homebuilders lost 3.9 percent as all 11 stocks retreated. Work began on 613,000 one-family houses at an annual rate last month, the most since July 2008 and up 0.8 percent from December’s 608,000, Commerce Department figures showed today. Total housing starts dropped to a 890,000 rate, less than forecast and restrained by a slump in construction of multifamily units.

Treasury 10-year note yields retreated from near the highest level in 10 months before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its last policy meeting.

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