Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  548 Comments

meegoreng1
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:34pm

Bought 2 Monster boxes of Canadian Silver Maples!

Sold some SLW to get that.

Place where I bought it from told me that a prominent buyer (Silver analyst, not able to name him) also stepped up and bought a lot from my source too.

Also have more powder and and gold silver stocks to unload if and when prices keep going down. It is still possible because of expiry dates next Monday.

Also ignore anyone, incl. Turd and KWNers that keeps telling you that there is a HEH moment coming soon. This is a a long term war not a short term battle.

Remember, the ONLY reason PMs are down is there is a lot of money to be made for the EE going against the Specs . Until they capitulate, this is gonna continue. Only the strong survives this war (like it did in 1979 before the surge). Don't place your hope on a "HEH moment the next 6 weeks" kind of call as you too will start losing hope and not survive.

Keep strong. If not able to, then turn off your computer and take a break!

¤
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:35pm

SLW or EXK

Fwiw...I'm considering either $40-50 calls in Jan. 2014 for SLW or August 2013 EXK $7.50 calls.

thedukes
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:36pm

Santa has it nailed

Santa has it nailed and these are most likely the battle lines about to be defended.

Nov 23 1757.90 A point

Jan 4 1627.90 B point equals 130 point swing

Jan 17 1699 C point

Feb 15 breaks the B point with increased volumes

Feb 19 continues pushing with volume

C to D point 1699-130 = 1569 1:1 or

1699-180= 1519 1:1382

1699-210= 1489 1:1618

A big thank you to both Santa and Argentus for bringing together a time frame that appears to be right on target for a major pm bottom.

Stock_Canines
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:39pm

Positiveness

Now, the message from Turd is trust Santa. HEH this summer/fall was a failure. 2013 is off to an awful start in what is typically the strongest time of the year for the metals. Are we the ones growing desperate or is it the cartel?

Larry
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:40pm

This is what it feels like...

When you are an investor in an asset that the Empire you are subjected to covets. There will be emotional pain in watching and holding and financial pain or destruction if you sell, depending on your circumstance. When you are a large entity or a small nation with gold and resources, those two pains would be welcomed over what brutality is in store for them if they don't buckle and bow to the Empire. Look at how many times we've seen that in just the last two years!

The US-Britain-Western Empire could not care less about small stackers of gold and silver. Their local governments have ways and means of taxing, reducing or removing assets from certain weak minded investors. This is a battle between nations and large entities. The vultures of all shapes and sizes have flocked in and perch on the wagons of the Empire campaign of destruction and they will continue to break every law with impunity simply because they are on the side of the ravenous Beast. That beast is now desperate, and wants to debunk the value of pm's to support their Ponzi. For now, any party that aids and abets that effort will be immune from prosecution.

The G-20 resolved nothing except throw another complexity of lies around the big table. The currency war rages and is focused on gold, and to a lesser extent, silver. The Empire has squandered their gold, leased it out and thrown it away to prop their fiat paper and they will stop at nothing to lie, cheat, steal and kill to take it back before their scheme burns and an international reset of currencies occurs.

It is so sad and increasingly evident that all of this wickedness will lead to widespread destruction and war. This is historic in scope and scale. It may wind up being much more than what we perceive it to be. The level of evil today is remarkable... perhaps biblical.

On a side note, particularly on a day like this, it comes as no surprise that the minimally paid anti-pm minions, the sadistic psychopaths and pathetic ones will crawl out from under the baseboards to taunt and to try and add misery to our blog host and to the denizens here. Seeing this over the course of time, it's obvious that despair, pain and misery is all they seem to know. They wallow in it, and seem to take some dark pleasure in ridiculing people who have much of their life savings or retirement funds invested in assets that are being attacked. There is a steep price to pay for that behavior. They will not be judged by a jury of their peers, nor by the government that sanctions the same behavior. Sad, really.

It only titillates (or pays) them to be rebuffed or called by name. Personally, them showing up in numbers gives me optimism of a bottom, which is the opposite effect they seek, being bottom dwellers as they are. If I do give them a fleeting moment of thought, I'll just refer to them only as cockroaches. The name 'Troll' is above them and what they do.

Back to my thoughts on this fine day: During times like this it is almost impossible to be happy if you hold a stake in miners or even a stack of physical. Never pleasant to see the kind of blatant wickedness we see. But I for one am staying put. Nothing will be sold to the thieves. If I lose my investments, it will be because I have been robbed, not wrong.

My hope for justice does not rely on any individual... no man, no politician, no financial entity, no government of any nation. None of them will do what needs to be done nor will they do what is right and fair. My investment outcome relies on reaching the tipping point of supply and demand. Whether that is due to an international reset or a massive revaluation, I have no idea. It could also occur with a war or major catastrophic event. God, I hope that is not the case, but it sure seems we're headed there.

In the meantime, while there is so much smoke in the air and gnashing of teeth, I'm off to the LCS. I haven't bought this cheap in ages. Hey, you gotta roll with the punches :)

ivars
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:42pm

SRSrocco

It may be true...If EROI is below one, the only sense of digging energy out is if we get energy with lower entropy (higher quality) by utilizing energy of higher entropy. That may not be true.

As long as EROI is >1 it makes sense in some sense at least, if just to improve balance of payments. The gas glut in the USA has made the price so low that gas based chemical industry is being rebuilt in the USA and is completely pushing out any other competitor on the market by incredibly low (1/3) cost of basic chemicals it makes.

So short term this definitely may become a calculation in investor minds that works against rapid increase in the price of PMs, and that is enough to prolong nd deepen the correction we have been seeing for 2 years almost now. I would not claim and of bull market now by now means, just cautioning that there are facts and propaganda out that affect real business decisions which in turn affect prices of PMs.

What I am saying is just do not dismiss the investor ( not analyst) thinking over these items as they decide the price of gold. They vote with money.

And please do not feed me the conspiracy/manipulation stuff. That is taking place in every possible moment, but surely the best possible moments to manipulate PMS down are when buying itself is uncertain and not fully committed. E.g. China itself would like to have more gold at right price however without overkill that can destroy the value of their USD denominated ( and other fiat ) holdings. So if they see there might be a hesitancy in the market, which is obviously there, they would not be the ones to rush the gold prices up if they were not certain its the last moment to do it.

And that is obviously a point where we are now. Just that.

Till summer I have stopped for bottom looking. Only if there is both real macro things that inevitably drives the debt increase faster and proved trend that PMs are moving with it, I will go long .

As to paper price vs physical theory..that is another BS i do not like to be fed.

SV
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:45pm
Basil thedukes
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:51pm

@ thedukes "Santa has it nailed"

Santa has nothing "nailed". Santa has never had anything "nailed".

I have been following Sinclair for many years, and his predictions are just as often wrong as right. That is the simple truth of the matter. It's probably not what most people want to hear on this board, so most people here will simply refuse to believe it.

ReachWest
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:51pm

Sincere Concern

The sincere concern for the financial well-being of Turdites coming from our new member NonoverlappingMagicCereal is truly astounding and frankly, touching.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal wrote:
Macroeconomics is very tough, perhaps impossible to predict. I know you guys see the bogeyman in all this stuff, but I hate to see so many people with their eggs in one basket.
NonoverlappingMagicCereal wrote:
I don't care to discuss my point of view because I don't have a point of view to defend.

I think Turdville knows full well the difficulty predicting anything. And - it does appear that there NonOverlapping does have a point of view. He/She just does not wish to discuss it in any detail.

Anyway - I may go and sell all my physical PM later today. I have been 'oh' so wrong, for 'oh' so long. It only took a couple of posts from this thoughtful new member to convince me. I'm going to buy eggs and put them all into my one basket.

kingboo
Feb 20, 2013 - 12:54pm

@non-overlapping

from you comment: "And look, I know you have all sorts of reasons for why that inflation number is wrong"

I do.........It's called a fucking grocery store! And since you've "heard it all before" i figured i would point out a place where you can go "see it" instead.

you may not think you're transparent.....but you are. I have windshields that are more difficult to see through than you.....(as if you actually had anyone in Turdville's best interest at heart...after 10 minutes here....yeah, o.k..)

Here's the thing you might need some help with; people don't come here to get swayed out of metals.......they come here because they ALREADY believe the system is going to shit and together we are looking for support in numbers....and solutions...... you want to call it a cult? Go for it...... herd mentality?... whatever. You see our convictions run deeper than a quick "drive-by-spooking" during a washout.......

So save it for the amateurs in the Kitco forums.....

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 3 hours 9 min ago
by HappyNow, 6 hours 7 min ago
by NW VIEW, Aug 18, 2019 - 4:18pm
by NW VIEW, Aug 18, 2019 - 1:17pm
randomness