Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

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  548 Comments

PMBull kingboo
Feb 20, 2013 - 7:50pm

@Kingboo - Globex is closed

@Kingboo - Globex is closed for that brief period each day. Kitco charts flatline there as well. Others gap during the period.

kingboo
Feb 20, 2013 - 7:55pm

Thanks PMBull

learn something new everyday........

atomic180
Feb 20, 2013 - 7:57pm

Flatline...

monkeys take lunch...

philipat
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:03pm

@DPH Sequestration

In response to the earlier discussion, depressingly, I think you will find that even sequestration is not an actual CUT, but simply a reduction in the rate of the (Out of control) increases already budgeted. The word "CUT" doesn't actually exist in the DC Dictionary.

I have never seen ANY Organisation, even in the Private Sector, where a 10% CUT in spending cannot be achieved with minimal pain (And another 10% with only moderate pain), just by eliminating waste. But this is Government.............................

philipat
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:05pm

@Bollocks

Hence the ancient wisdom "Don't feed the Trolls"?

Bollocks
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:05pm

@Boswell

"it's more mentally healthy to abruptly end a conversation with someone obnoxious than to continue speaking with them"

Yes. Yes. Yes.

Ye gods, it took a study to find that out. God knows how long it took them and how much it cost.

Jeez, nobody has any self-knowledge do they? Nobody learns from their own experience nowadays. It's all "let's test what's in front of us" and draw a conclusion after exhaustive study, much of which will be bent according to some agenda.

Nobody is allowed to realise that they are the master of their own life. Drawing attention to that is strictly not allowed. So we all live in doubt and have to run exhaustive experiments on others to draw a conclusion - which has not one iota of self-knowledge, drawn from self-observation, in it.

No wonder everyone is so desperate.

Discovering who I really am is outlawed, removed from consciousness as quickly as possible after birth by the unconscious mind-control machine. Who I really am is replaced with a doubting self that can be controlled because of the fear that arises from that doubt.

Isn't that true?

Bollocks
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:14pm

@philipat

Indeed.

Most of the trolls live in our own mind. We allow them in and they stay there until we realise they're imposters. Their power comes from injecting doubt. It works for them because we haven't realised the difference between looking and thinking.

Thought is doubt. Looking, free of thought, without drawing a conclusion, is now. This moment, now. There's no space for any trolls to appear now, they all exist as thought - doubt, the past.

eeaton
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:17pm

Bought More Maple Leafs

Just to feel better I bought a few rolls of Silver Maples Leafs, keep stacking!!

jolidacrown
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:18pm

Opinion Only ...

Gold bottoms at 1509 by Friday.

Stratajema
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:19pm

I am so hopeful...

for the $1,400s in gold and the low $20's in silver. By then it will have to be physical backed paper that I buy (e.g. PSLV, CEF) because the supply of physical coins will be gone or withdrawn by the coin dealers. 

It is possible the Chinese are behind this smash because they need to buy tons and tons of gold. The downward trend is feeding on itself because of margin calls... that is how we get to the $1,400s. So glad I stopped listening to KW News back in 2011, otherwise I would have been suckered in at a much higher price.

PMBull philipat
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:19pm

@philipat @Bollocks- Re: "Don't Feed the Trolls"

Somehow, 

"Don't Feed the Trolls" better communicates the point than: 

"Ostracism can serve the regulatory goal of allowing people to conserve resources."

Academic gobbledygook, LOL

¤
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:26pm

AIG

I had quite a bit of AIG at one time (only 2,000 shares actually) after they initially tanked and the stock traded at around $3.00 if memory serves me correct. I figured what the hell, why not?

It eventually reverse split I think in a 10-1 and I had just exited the trade prior to it and I'm glad I did. So when I see articles like the one below after having seen how this whole AIG/Govt bailout has proceeded I'm left wondering ..."WTF was that actually all about?" besides the bailout it was?

AIG going down would've been like Lehman on steroids and yet they saved it for another day after most or all of it's toxic assets were bought up by the Fed. and taxpayers and investors abroad like the EU.

And now 4 years later AIG is free and clear and being invested in heavily after they had their balance sheet scrubbed by the Govt. at taxpayer expense. Wow.

So what does it all mean at this point and is AIG potentially a good play going forward? Does it have any upside?

The question I still see is...'"How long will a behemoth like AIG flat-line like this?"

When I get some spare fiat someday I might just get back into some AIG in a much smaller position. Check out the 5 year chart surprise

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AIG

Step Aside Apple: Presenting The Hedge Fund World's Newest Most Widely Held Stock

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/20/2013 - 19:11

Quarter after quarter we would recap the hedge fund world's infatuation with one stock and one stock alone: Apple. This inverse-mormon love affair hit its peak in the quarter ended September 30, when a record number of hedge funds were invested in AAPL stock. This was also the quarter when AAPL hit its all time high price and has since proceeded to slump by nearly 40% in four short months. Which was to be expected: hedge fund hotels always become flaming death traps when the sucker rally finally ends and what so many mistook and goalseeked for fundamentals, ended up being merely euphoria and momentum chasing as one after another marginal buyer put their money into a stock that seemingly could do no wrong or so we were told day after day. As of December 31, AAPL is no longer the darling of hedge fund groupthink. In its place we have a new hedge fund hotel. Presenting: AIG, which with 80 hedge funds reporting it as a Top 10 holding (compared to GOOG with 73, and AAPL with 67), is now the stock that has suckered in the most hedge fund capital, and where any future growth will depend solely on pulling incremental dumb money in.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/step-aside-apple-presenting-he...

¤
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:30pm

kingboo

yes

Video unavailable
Video unavailable
Turlock redrover1
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:33pm

redrover1 douchbag

WTF Capt. Hindsight. You come here and spew your bile. What is better about the macroeconomic environment??? What is better about Taxation??? What is better about employment??? How is our debt better??? How are our banks magically solvent?? I am here to help you. You are stupid.

Ilya Repin Byzantium
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:33pm

@Byzantium

You write well and i enjoyed your thoughts.

of course bears may win. anything is possible in most circumstances.

Tomorrow will be interesting. Volume may indeed be greater but it will be tough to break and hold bellow todays low by much, if at all.

we may go down again in the am GMT before CPI print.. another raid just prior then some buying may come in.

I think we are at make or break point for the shorts. However i do not think 26.0 will happen, or 27.0 for that matter. I am comfortable with being wrong in my prediction.

I think topping action in stocks is a bullish indicator for PMs as there ar elots of Macro funds out the short GLD short SLV long ES DJI and NAS so a pull back will see some squeezing.


The GotGoldReport is right on, i agree. But i just think today marked a turning point up for a violent move by next week and this relates to the long ES short GLD trade that everyone has been touting

Best of luck tomorrow

ps. as you can see gold is under fire and testing the lows but silver is still .30c of its low. This is what im referring to by "Silver Strength"

Gold is getting whacked in support of the silver shorts as much as anything.. its a way of attack that leaves no trace and no required increase in OI ... the lack of OI reduction in Silver and the increase in SHFE OI is firming silver up and Silver shorts are in too deep

update 2

new low for gold. Silver .20 off its low still (silver becoming resilient but not immune of course)

shothat
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:33pm

Perspective

Need I say more?

Photo: Perspective...

JustObserving
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:34pm

Why the Fall in Gold and Silver as Hong Kong and China open?

Silver down 33 cents and gold down $12 or so . Thanks for any info.

Larry
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:34pm

JPM not the big short at the moment?

Could this be a separation? Imagining the phone call:

Benny: Hey Jamie, we need you to fire the cannons again today.

Jamie: Ben, we've shot our wad that you gave us. 

Benny: C'mon Jamie, you've made billions on the spread with our money. These blasted *%#@* gold and silver insects have to be squashed, creamed, massacred. Get short big time.

Jamie: We've done ok, but it's now about the end of our control or we're going to wind up like Bear Stearns. And I remember how you cut them loose while holding your bag. 

Benny: They denied Alan's request to go all in. That was their mistake. The Dollar scheme must go on for now, until we have Africa, Egypt and Syria. Petraeus wouldn't play and you see where that got him. And now you deny my request?

Jamie: Call Citi. I'm up to my neck. Blythe can't even figure this out. Turd Ferguson is on to us.

Benny: You greedy, egotistic little %#@*. Ok then, we'll see what happens to your CDS position.

Jamie: But wait...

click

lickspitler
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:35pm

asia

looks like asia not that keen to add to their stack.....YET

Byzantium
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:40pm

@PM Bull re JPM short

I went back to the GotGoldReport to pull the requisite quote for you, but realise I had misread it. They were refering to gold, where Fund managers are shorting gold as a hedge against something else.

GGR said this (bold highlights are mine).

We take comfort in the notion that if Managed Money thought precious metals were about to plunge off a giant cliff and into an abyss, they would have a much larger short position for silver. The fact that they are only taking high insurance shorts for gold is likely in reaction to the Pension Fund exodus from long-only commods, which in our opinion is overblown and probably now way, way oversold in the gold market.


If it is not crystal clear, we view the very high Fund short gold position versus the very low NET short position for the Big Hedgers as a fantastic market imbalance with likely explosive corrective powers. Our only question is when balance will be restored and from what level.

Don't give up on Santa everybody; this spike down is artificial, and a hedge against something else. It is an imbalance awaiting a potentially 'explosive correction.' If the silver bulls can slug it out till then, then they will be reinforced pretty much by the entire market, and an explosive, historic rally is on the cards!!!!! 

So yeah, the big silver short is still probably you know who. They are on their own!

Strongsidejedi
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:41pm

interesting posting at silverdocs

https://youtu.be/V7SA3p8ys-s
China already has nukes.

Now, North Korea does also.

If the US didn't side with Japan, you would potentially be looking a nuclear China and nuclear North Korea pulling South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan into their sphere of influence.

US must side with Japan unless the US 7th fleet is being written off.

Strongsidejedi lickspitler
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:50pm

can we cut to the chase

There is "cooperation" on the drive down in gold price today.

Don't think this doesn't benefit Chinese central banks that want to acquire more western mined gold (Canada, Australia, or even US).

And, don't think the "cultural relations" are absent.... check out this story... these Chinese reporters are spilling the beans on congressional staffers who went to China and enjoyed high living on the Chinese government.

https://youtu.be/mKFI7CL5yBE?t=5m20s

¤
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:52pm

What will tomorrow bring?

More of the same?

Tomorrow Never Knows by The Beatles - Digitally Remastered (psychedelic video)

its suttle but its there

ancientmoney
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:53pm

@Daystar . . .

Harvey is somewhat late tonight. He must have his abacus and slide rule a-smokin' trying to cypher all the trading today . . .

recaptureamerica
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:54pm
WhatsItAllAboutAlphi
Feb 20, 2013 - 8:56pm

JS forces CIGA vs Them

Video unavailable
Kcap
Feb 20, 2013 - 9:05pm

Lots of new trollsters here these days....

Metals must be ready for the Consolidation Bottom to be cemented.

Kcap

Gent
Feb 20, 2013 - 9:05pm

Watching but .. Bottom line

I find it interesting to look at and try to understand all the TA Charts and the posters' reasoning behind this and that but, in my mind, the bottom line is supply and demand

Central Banks are buying gold

China, India, Russia et all are taking phizz pm off the market

Miners are going broke and output is going down because they can't afford to operate

Supplies of gold, plat & pall are down due to probs with miners in South Africa

It's said that Russia's stack of palladium is kaput

IF the holders of all the OI stay steadfast and demand phizz ... Poof ... there it goes

Until replacements for pms in solar, electronics, autos, etc are found ... S & D ... A no brainer

Sheeple are showing much interest with the way the US Mint sales are going

BTFD

Save_America1st
Feb 20, 2013 - 9:10pm

ebay phyzz prices...

paper phyzz may be down, but a quick look at ebay doesn't reflect that. The real phyzz on ebay doesn't show prices dropping at all. Hmmm...imagine that...go figure. wink

Here's a search parameter to run on ebay that weeds out most everything other than 1 oz .999 silver ads:

.999 silver coin; -grams; -clad; -grain; -gram; -mills; -copper; -tin; -grains; -proof; -1/2; -1/4; -1/10; -1/10th; -1/4th

copy and paste the whole line above in the search bar on ebay.

I'm seeing most 1 oz'ers going from 35 as high up as 50+ per oz. I don't think the nay-sayers who flame the board with their crappy fly-by comments get that part of it at all. And as stackers we don't care about the paper price unless we get a dip to use to our advantage in order to add more phyzz to our stacks.

This is about accumulating as many ounces as possible for as little FRN's as possible before the SHTF one of these days. And when it does, it's not going to matter if we bought some of our silver at 8, 20, 26.50, 35, 45 or 50. By then you won't be able to put a fiat dollar price on our fat stacks of phyzz. And you also most likely won't be able to get it for that price anyway because nobody in their right minds at that point will be selling...maybe trading as barter...but the valuation will be very high in my opinion when we get to that point. We'll be comparing our ounces of phyzz to home or land prices or to whatever we will convert it to after the reset.

I'm certainly not looking to sell any phyzz now or even later as it eventually starts to run back towards 50 and beyond. Why would any of us want to do that? Won't that be the signal of the final end game of the dollar? We won't want that shit paper back in our hands after all we've gone through to ensure our survival by stacking phyzz all this time.

At least that's how I see it anyway.

DollarMenu2
Feb 20, 2013 - 9:10pm

ZH posting....

Hopefully, this may boost your spirits.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/strange-case-golds-regular-mor...

We have been here before.

Take a walk, BTFD.

Play with your kids.

This will pass.

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