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Cutting Vacation Short

548
Wed, Feb 20, 2013 - 10:04am

This is relentless and unforgiving...and I'm not talking about MrsF.

So bad that I'm cutting my mini-vacation short. I still don't have time for a full post so here are two items for you to read this morning.

ZH has been doing an excellent job chronicling the consistent, daily destruction. Here's the latest: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/precious-metals-morning-slam-right-schedule

And here's someone who has noticed some of the same "anomolies" that I have: https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-20/curious-case-falling-gold-and-silver-prices

The charts, of course, look terrible. Having failed at hoped-for support, silver looks like $28 and gold, if $1580 fails, looks headed all the way back to the bottom of the 18-month range, near $1550.

This is all highly unusual and indicative of extreme manipulation and panic-level positioning. At the risk of sounding trite and reading like another KWN pumper, I must say it: THIS WILL PASS. THESE EXTREMES WILL BE RESOLVED SOON AND NEW UPLEGS WILL BEGIN. PLEASE BE PATIENT. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE STRONGER THAN EVER AND PHYSICAL REALITIES WILL SOON REPLACE PAPER SHENANIGANS AS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND PRICE.

More later if possible.

TF

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  548 Comments

indosil · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:45am

Exactly.Thanks for bringing that up...coz i didn't want to spoil the mood futher.....it's Sequester related selling as well...Options expiry on Monday i guess...besides it's a 28 day month..why not to hedge in advance!!!!!

Deadly Molatov Cocktail lobbed at the Gold & Silver Market..i believe this was the Extreme Event you were talking about & it's for all to see.

El Gordo · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:46am

Take careful aim, hold it steady. Breath in through your nose, hold it, and gently squeeze the trigger. Now, wasn't that easy?

RaulP · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:46am

I have hedged my physical by buying SLW puts. Not an effective hedge but still gives me money to buy more physical. So bankers, go on and destroy the paper price, it will give me all the more ammo for getting physical with you guys :)

¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:47am

One thing no one is talking about is the upcoming budget sequestration on March 1st that will automatically reduce spending by a significant amount.

Is the market looking forward and saying that the automatic cuts happen and hence gives the appearance of cutting our debt and getting serious about our fiscal plight? 

I realize much of the political jawboning is rhetoric and easy to dismiss as ineffective and not to be taken seriously by us and many others.

However, gold has risen over the past decade based on debt fears and USD devaluation etc. that soon might suddenly get tamped down or at least give the impression in a MOPE way that the market and the ratings agencies need and want to see.

While I believe much of what is going on is in part the overtime effort of the cartel at work I also need to consider that it is also a capital liquidation move by some that is hedging against and preparing for the effects of this sequestration even if much of it is budget slight of hand stretched out over the next decade possibly.

As we have seen repeatedly and daily over many years is that all it takes in this market is effective and believable MOPE. Right or wrong, we see MOPE work all the time.

A sequestration on the scale they are talking about is MOPE but it's also a very real budgetary event that the market and agencies will see as USD positive and potentially negative on gold in this small window of time.

This is what I see and feel needs to be given some thought to at this point. While shorting by the cartel is always in play it appears they are also going with the flow and the overall selling momentum during this pre-sequestration capital liquidation.

H - original · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:48am

Oh boy... sale prices like these have me feeling like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU

Off to LCS :)

 EDIT: Couldn't wait... just went online and ordered me up another 40oz AG - not much I know, but every little counts.

FABGold Bobbejaan · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:51am

I agree.

This is deflation time. All debt must be washed away. There is no other way. Therefore all paper denominated prices will go to ZERO. Also paper dominated spot CAN go to zero or $1.

That's how you take over the world with limitless paper money supply.

VALUE is something different. Don't let go of REAL assets.

agNau · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:53am

will push this sell-off lower. They are part of matrix. Compliments of your cartel......"Here, have some more fairy dust." Now, off to sleep you go! $26.50........perhaps a spike lower. History shows these levels are brief stays.........let's hope so again. They can only alter perception........not reality.

Strongsidejedi · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:53am

two comments... to the person who posted the story about China favoring the USD...it's clear why they are saying that. In the global currency game, China has a trillion of those USD's. They lose $100 per citizen for a 10% fall in USD valuation globally. China's game seems pretty clear to me. They want to convert those $1 trillion (or is it $800 billion now?) US Treasury notes to something of tangible value. They are clearly making natural resource plays globally in exchange for those dollars. It's possible that the short-term lack of confidence in the USD caused a response in Beijing where they needed to MOPE the USD to a higher standing. This would explain the behavior of the markets over the past two weeks. More importantly, the story this week fits with last week. Remember that Chinese New Year is a TWO WEEK holiday people. The asian markets have been largely closed over the past ten days. They'll be back at full blast on Sunday night.

Still, it's the first time in five years we've seen this type of monthly chart for February.

This is last year's chart followed by this year's current chart for 2013... the pic will update with future days (so people viewing this thread in the future will see the whole chart in retrospect)

As of the day of posting, the chart for 2013 ends at 19-Feb. I'm wondering right now if the chart lines will move up like the prior year's chart.

But, note last year's silver chart. It looks pretty similar in action for AG.

So think about your holiday season. If the economy of China gets quiet during early February for holiday, then everyone gets back to work by around Feb 23, don't those charts make sense people?


On the other hand, if the hand wringing "Comex spot price is falling" crowd come back, please do. I have some dry powder waiting... I love the smell of burning Comex paper in the morning. Its the smell of ... victory....

tmosley · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:55am

It's funny, gold and silver have been held in a tight range for a long time. I think the price has been kept that way to drive out the longs. Now that the longs have shown that they won't be driven out, they are instead fraudulently lowering the price, and will continue to do so until it is "low enough", at which point they let the market break, and only have to pay the longs in cash at the last trade price. I think Turd talked about this earlier in some post with a kind of weird name. I don't think he said anything about them driving down the price in advance of such an event, though.

Such a move seemingly would indicate that JPM and Co have lost the support of the Fed in infina-shorts, or maybe they never actually had it, or the support they got from the Fed was being fraudulently rerouted into silver and gold suppression, and that money has run out. Hard to say what is the case.

None-the-less, owners of physical silver can stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational, as physical silver is an asset rather than a liability. Woe be to the paper longs, though.

¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:55am

I wouldn't wade in too deeply but I'm thinking about it.

These are the days where some of them are on a fire sale and I'd go at least 6 months out or Jan. 2014.

If your bored and sick of this action go check out some option chains. I'm thinking of tossing a little fiat into my options account right now.

I don't think this over with. Right now (post G7/G20) March 1st looms large and the cartel shorts know it. Perfect timing for them.

Keg · Feb 20, 2013 - 10:57am

There are no cuts in the sequestration. Only a reduction in planned increase in spending. And the amount is miniscule compared to the total the government spends. O'bummer is just trying to spin this to make Rs look bad. Since they do a good job on their own, I'm not sure why he wastes the effort.

Strongsidejedi ¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:02am

@DPH - I'm thinking that same way. Scary that you and I were on that same thought at the exact same time.

I suppose that means the options chain pricing just worked against my position by $0.50 a contract. LOL

I'd rather not toss the fiat to CME. I am however, gassing up the car to drive to the biggest wholesaler in the area to talk shop. It's time for some LCS guys to put up the inventory or step aside.

The LCS guys are helping to limit the price divergence between paper and physical coins by limiting inventory on sale when the price declines like this. Those guys want to limit losses so they hold inventory when they should be selling inventory and repurchasing at the same price from the mint.

Of course, they are in line behind the wholesalers.

Go to the wholesalers and cut off the LCS guys today or tomorrow.

Then watch the silver price turn around next week.

LOL Anyone want to predict price on Sunday night?

I say $30 will be back.

indosil · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:02am

Yes we all know it...but not the shitheads who sit like zombies in front of the Idiot Box spoonfed by MSM...besides the Cartel has achieved what they wanted to.Period.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:03am

To all the folks who are in physical 'no matter how low it goes', those of you to whom every drop in price is obvious manipulation and an opportunity to 'BTFD':

You do know what that end game looks like if you happen to be wrong about all these theories, right?

Macroeconomics is very tough, perhaps impossible to predict. I know you guys see the bogeyman in all this stuff, but I hate to see so many people with their eggs in one basket.

· Feb 20, 2013 - 11:03am

For TTM subscribers, I have recorded a brief podcast update, too.

Dr G Bobbejaan · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:03am

Fixed that statement here ....

In other words, the PRICE of PAPER silver may drop, but that does not correlate to the VALUE of REAL silver. 

That's the exact same thing I said. Price is something measured by spot. Value is the worth.

redrover1 · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:04am

I have been on/off this site for about 6 months now...I have NEVER seen anyone be SOOOOO wrong 100% of the time! I just don't understand the "TURD" following??? Please explain. I use this site as comedy at this point. Thanks!

ClinkinKY · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:06am

...if I didn't have to buy "luxuries" like food, gas, insurance etc I'd have more powder to buy the "necessities" like G/S.wink

And I'm being sincere.

Maximillion · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:08am

Well put tmosely, plus they are likely to know exactly where the paper stops are so it's all just a paper profit harvesting game to them. Stick top the real stuff then the casino loses, then we win

Harald · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:10am

Member eight minutes. Thanks for your insight.

Was that gap number someone mention last night $28.60?

hammerman · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:10am

on cutting da mini vacation short.... this is the last time you will see $1520 to $1550... buy with both hands... borrow where and what you can.... this is the buy of a lifetime here and now...... in my true kramer voice BUY BUY BUY !

indosil · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:11am

wow..Crude just dropped through a sink hole!!!!!!!!!!1

¤ · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:12am

I agree with all of you on the BS/MOPE factor but thats our point of view in here and how we see it for what it really is. The headlines and sound bites say otherwise to the vast majority of people who are not tuned in like we are in here.

This is no different then the Fiscal Cliff drama that played out which is now old news. And what about that debt ceiling breach? All forgotten.

Those things have all been temporarily shelved and almost forgotten about. So eventhough many things are illusory and nothing more then MOPE we have seen many times recently that effectiveness or fiscal reality matters much regarding real budget numbers.

It's the MOPE that counts and at this point there is some selling momentum in play regardless if that upcoming sequestration seems efficient or is an actual spending cut or not.

Twilight Zone stuff.

Groaner · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:12am

yeah!

erewenguy · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:12am

Today is puke day. Better get some while its here. Looks like equities may be sold off and rotated into treasuries. The Fed has so many of them it would help to increase the buyers. PMs will benefit from an equity sell off.

NonoverlappingMagicCereal Harald · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:13am

It's 11 minutes now, if that helps.

ClinkinKY · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:15am

AlienEyes · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:16am

Woe is me and woe is you.

They d0ne picked us to

do it to.

Metals are down and the dollar is up. There’s a turd* in the punch bowl and there’s some in my cup. I blame the banksters and the socialists, too. As it looks right now, we all have been screwed. The justice department is as blind as a bat. I don’t know about you, but I smell a rat. sad (Not Our Turd)
Groaner ClinkinKY · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:16am

Hot fresh lunch being delivered to Blythe and jamie

ACAD · Feb 20, 2013 - 11:20am

Re. turd being wrong 100% of the time, tell us who has been right 100% of the time? Have you been trading this market perfectly? Where do you get your advice? Why not start a site yourself that is a bizzaro TFMR site...if you're always right you'd probably get everyone from this site as your followers. Just a thought...

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