Thu, Feb 14, 2013 - 12:56pm

My new printer is finally online and the pits close in about an hour. I'd better type fast.

I'm hoping that today's action is the final washout I mentioned yesterday. I did get filled on the July silver $35 call that I'd been hoping to buy. We'll see what happens next but, either way and with 4+ months on my back pocket, I feel pretty good about it regardless of what happens over the next few days. I see that several other folks, including Santa, are expecting something BIG in March. Maybe they'll be right. I certainly hope so. In the meantime, I'm patiently waiting for Ides+7, though I hope for a reversal and another shot at The Big Test before then.

Not helping things are the generally cautious-looking charts below. If all three (crude, copper and platinum) roll over and begin to trend downward, it certainly isn't going to help the cause of the metals in the short term. Obviously, if attempting to trade, you'd better be keeping and eye on them.

Next, in a sickening example of the manipulated and MOPEd sham the markets have become, read what I wrote on 2/1, as I was hurrying out the door to head to Vegas:

"Speaking of fiat debasement, the situation in The Pig is getting rather tenuous. The Bernank had better send out a Goon or two to talk it up soon or it risks failing at 79 and then 78. IF/WHEN this happens, look out below for a retest of the all-important 73 level. You can plainly see it here on this daily chart. Open your mind and you'll see a year-long, head-and-shoulder top. Therefore, a breakdown here would indeed be a big deal."

So, of course, what has happened in the two weeks since? Exactly that! And not only do we get one or two Fed Goons per day talking up the dollar, we also had Goldman's man in Europe talking down the euro and the G-7 talking up the yen. What a perfect storm of MOPE! Sickening.

So, now can they pull the same trick to rescue the 10-year note? Fckn-A right, they can! Just watch...

So where does this all leave is in the metals? In the crapper, of course! Let's see...In the 5 months since the announcement of QE∞ back in September, gold has fallen from $1780 to $1640. That's a drop of 7.9%. Yep, that makes a lot of sense! Even worse, silver has fallen from $35 to $30.50. That's -12.8%!! While The POSX has been defended at 79 four times! And the S&P500 is up 5%!! What a deal and a magnificent victory for central planning, control and manipulation!

Here, this is even worse: $85,000,000,000 per month in money printing confirmed in early December of last year. Since then, gold has fallen from $1725 to $1640 (-4.9%) and silver has fallen from $32.20 to $30.50 (-5.3%). And since this money began flooding the world in January, both metals are now unchanged. $120,000,000,000 new dollars created from nothing over the past 6 weeks and....nothing. No change at all in the price in gold and silver. But the S&P500 is up nearly 100 point since the first of year. Remarkable.

So, anyway, here are your charts:

I had a number of other things that I wanted to write about today but, after those last two paragraphs, I'm so depressed that I'm just going to quit, instead.

See you tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


goldirocks · Feb 14, 2013 - 12:58pm



ag1969 · Feb 14, 2013 - 12:58pm

First Ammendment

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Galearis · Feb 14, 2013 - 12:59pm

Maybe turd? G.

Maybe turd?


Igiveup2 · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:00pm

Bath day

Why does TA always seem to work only on the way down?

Istack · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:00pm

Trying to washout my patience?

i'm gonna stay on this road until we run out of road

Mammoth · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:01pm

Happy Valentines Day

Happy Valentines Day, fellow Turdites!

tpbeta · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:03pm

Well that cheered me up...

... I feel like selling my phys and buying a bunch of silver shorts. But I won't. Probably.

But I will have a stiff drink

Big L · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:04pm

Happy Valentines to all

Happy Valentines to ALL! And Especially Turd and family.

· Feb 14, 2013 - 1:05pm

Oops. Almost forgot...

ValDay. Here's something melancholy to fit the mood. The Killers cover Dire Straits.

The killers - Romeo And Juliet (Live from Abbey Road)
kn33bar · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:10pm

Hello Turd

Hello Turd,

In April it will be a year since Ned announced the coming NASE.

Can we get an update?

rtabit · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:10pm


Exactly what I didn't want to see when made entry yesterday, slow grind lower into support, going to have to prove these are really support now for entry. If daily breaches I'll start looking really hard for some good short entries. Support currently around 30.03 or so area.



Mickey · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:11pm

strong dollar policy-

had it for 20 years now at least-so lets look at a 20 year chart of USD-oops

the audacity.....

Barth Vader · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:11pm

lost your way?

Why the long faces?

IMHO this site is about timing the bottoms in the metals prices, not talking them up. 

Up may only indicate the end that you'd be smart to dread (or at least respect) is drawing nearer. 

If you're here, you're probably here for a reason and that reason is that you know a storm is comming.

Personnally i get all the more excited on these up-days wink to time the bottom and order in an extra bar or maple and make most of the enslaving currencies we are now forced to use. No doubt another better enslaving currency will be tried to put in place.

live long and prosper.

And do not forget to BTFD

Galearis · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:11pm

Yep, CONfirmed, turd

Now that I have made the big time,...

But seriously, Turd, we are watching the ultimate subversions and destruction of the whole market system....And you have a much better grasp of this than most...Look at poor ol' Clive Maund, who (says he) doesn't understand why his chart patterns aren't blowing north...(Actually I feel more for his clients.)


ReachWest · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:12pm

Over the Abyss

I'm not depressed - I'm just angry. The utter criminality in these markets - and I'm not just talking the metals - I mean all markets is pure evil. Honestly, it is evil - and it is pure theft from good people. I will continue to stack and accumulate real honest money. Frankly there is nothing else that makes any sense - NOTHING. We are over the abyss and falling deeper week by week. This is guaranteed to end very, very poorly for everyone.

Thanks Turd. That new printer seems to work nicely.

madwaloo · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:16pm

@ mammoth

That is the best valentines box I've ever seen!

ag1969 · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:17pm

Reach West

The libtards have demonized anger. Anger is a natural human response to injustice.

ancientmoney · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:18pm

Good time to post my favorite quote again . . .

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the US public believes is false." -William J. Casey, 1981



Turd said, "I had a number of other things that I wanted to write about today but, after those last two paragraphs, I'm so depressed that I'm just going to quit, instead."


I have a few thoughts. Some have been thoughts I've posted before, but as things move ahead, they change a bit, so my thinking does, too.

Bull markets are notorious for breaking people. It takes a lot to ride a bull market, as they carry as few riders as possible. It is the nature of them.

Especially when the fundamentals are plain to see for those with eyes who look. Especially when the force of wealth and power do everything possible to prevent the bull from rising. 

The PTB are suppressing the financial world, and the PMs in particular. They do not want people leaking out of their paper system into metals, as that hastens their own demise.

It is difficult to see past it all, but to ride this bull, you must. Paper prices WILL approach zero. When fiat currencies are finally devalued in the reset, paper trading will halt. In essence, the value of paper gold and silver will be zero after that.

Those holding paper silver and gold will be cashed out in currencies, but it will be as of the last day of trading before the reset. The TBTF banks control when it all happens, and how it happens. Paper trading will result in tears.

It is trite, but the fact that we can buy physical gold and silver at these prices, in these times is a gift. The fact that the PTB know gold and silver are Giffen goods (demand increases as price rises), allows this. 

I hate to sound like a doomer, but the government expects it. They wouldn't be doing the things they are doing for no reason.

The world will not be a pretty place for quite some time after the collapse. The longer it is held off, the worse it will be. We are on borrowed time. Best to make use of these sunny days to be like the ant, and prepare. When gold and silver are finally set free, it will happen with a lot of strife, especially in the developed, welfare-state countries. You won't want anyone to know you were a prepper during the sunny days. You'll need to keep a low profile, and have enough food and water so you don't need to interact much with those scouring for it. And, you'll need a way to defend against those who would do anything to take what you have prepared.

Urban Roman · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:19pm

Deflation ...

This is a response to Be Prepared, from the previous thread

But the unofficial debt, using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) now stands at $238 Trillion. Against an annual GDP of approximately $16 Trillion, that means that every dollar of value created by goods and services for the next 15 years is already spent. And that number, by the way, is in today’s dollars. 

That paragraph is exactly the sort of thing that a deflationist would point to and say "See? I told you so." ... This money, this 238 trillion, and the derivatives mentioned in the next paragraph. They are not real money. That earthly ocean of dollar bills 1 1/4 inches deep can evaporate very quickly. 

And by comparison all the Bernank's printing is a mere rounding error. Which is to say, dollars can suddenly become relatively more valuable if you have some of them. Of course the trick is to hang onto them. Keep some powder dry. Hyperinflation may be further into the future than you thought it would be. 
· Feb 14, 2013 - 1:20pm

And furthermore...

DO NOT WATCH if easily offended OR if you can't stand profanity.

Video unavailable
kn33bar · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:22pm

It's actually been since last February

Chinese politics, etc. etc. etc.

Igiveup2 · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:44pm


Yesterday there was a business conference in Madison, Wisconsin. I would guess there were about 1,200 attendees, all business professional. There were three speakers. An economist named Barry Asmus (well credentialed) , Stephan Hayes (Weekly Standard) and Michael Hayden (former head of CIA and NSA). Combined they spoke for almost three hours. The long and short of it, each of their talks could easily been posts on here or ZH. The audience was deadly silent. They gave a very sobering assessment of the current economic, political and geopolitical situation. General Hayes's talk was the most sobering. He is very concerned about Iran going nuclear an indicates either nuclear proliferation or war are inevitable in the middle east. Neither one having less than catastrophic consequences. At the end of his talk I went up and asked him how he felt about the militarization of local law enforcement and particularly about his view on the use of drones against US citizen here at home. He said he was very troubled by this, very troubled indeed.

My biggest concern yesterday wasn't what I was hearing. It was who was saying it. Made the hair on the back of my neck stand up. If you think you are worrying needlessly about all of this stuff, based on my day yesterday, I'd say you aren't. Very sobering.

· Feb 14, 2013 - 1:55pm

Read "Reminiscences of a

Read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre (Jesse Livermore), the best book on investing/trading ever written, and you'll find that this is EXACTLY the same as it was about 1900! The manipulation has always been there. It's an integral part of the system and it must be "traded".

babaganoush2307 · Feb 14, 2013 - 1:58pm

Anyone else planning on....

....picking up a bottle of Makers mark to stack away before they devalue it like everything else? wink

Galearis · Feb 14, 2013 - 2:02pm

More on washout

https://www.silverdoctors.com/192-million-ounces-of-paper-silver-dumped-on-market-in-10-minutes-on-nfp-release/ Turd and Sinclair are talking final washout attempts...This may work this time...and we may even see sub $30 silver before this is all over..Follow the link for CONtext. G.

Bongo Jim · Feb 14, 2013 - 2:07pm

Stacking lead

Sorry OT, but got my Cheaper than Dirt catalog (Feb/13)the other day and just opened it a minute ago. Noticed that there are NO prices on any of the ammo or magazines.

Is there a LEADEX where I can get the spot price or will I have to go out into the open market to find the true price?

zman · Feb 14, 2013 - 2:08pm

From Trader Dan's blog today,

From Trader Dan's blog today, "The exit that the Fed will attempt at some point in the future should be interesting to say the least."

Does he really think the Fed would stop QE and sell the bonds they have already bought? Who would buy all the debt?

The Fed is trapped, why does Trader Dan even say such a crazy statement? I don't get it.

Frankenstein Government · Feb 14, 2013 - 2:13pm


How many times have I read that? A million or so. I been buying "BTFD" for three years. I am done buying. I will pin my hopes on the next miracle...this one allegedly in March.

Now wondering how I am gonna get 1000 oz of silver and 10 oz of gold out of this country. In carry on luggage?

treefrog · Feb 14, 2013 - 2:14pm


looking at the five minute silver chart;

is this the beginning of a fubm?

foreplay for a fubm?

or just wishful thinking?

Road_Scholar · Feb 14, 2013 - 2:15pm

Today looks like the day

for a bad wash-out joke to pass the time.

Why didn't the Space Shuttle Discovery astronaut/teacher, Christa McAuliffe take a shower before the mission launch?

She wanted to wash-up on shore...

(I know it's bad)

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