Killed Another Printer

Wed, Feb 13, 2013 - 12:10pm

Apparently, HP didn't have me in mind when they designed the Officejet 4500. I guess the sheer volume of crapola that I print off every day wears them out pretty quickly. So, where I had planned to give you quite a few charts today, you're left with just a few.

And to make a long story short...I think we are very near a tradable bottom. We may have already seen it, what with Hong Kong coming back online tonight/tomorrow. Maybe but I hope not. I'm hoping for one last spike down to wash out a few more longs and draw in some additional spec momo shorts. I'm so confident of future price that I actually sent in a few dollars once again to Jim & Teddy in Chicago. IF I can get this final washout, I won't be able to help myself. Besides, after blowing some dollars two weeks ago in a Vegas casino, what's a few more fiat dollars dumped onto the Comex casino?

So here's what I'm looking for. On the weekly gold chart below, you can plainly see (at least I can!) that the area between 1620 and 1640 offers considerable support. If you look closely, you can even see where we are forming a rounded, bowl-type formation from the highs of August 2011. (Of course, if you look closely, you can see just about anything. In fact, I'm pretty sure you can spot an image of Mother Teresa, too.) Regardless, as mentioned late last week, the Chinese New Year has allowed The Cartel to openly manipulate the chart in order to draw in as many spec momos as possible. One more spike down and the trap will close and we should get a pretty decent, short-covering rally. From there, gold will rally back toward the $1680-85 area where it will encounter the downtrend line from the early October highs near $1800. After breaking through, the typical action would be to "ride" it lower for a week or two before springing higher with the newly-established trend.

Before we get to silver, I want to insert a chart of DrC here. It's one of the few charts I was able to print before the HP died. Note that classic pattern that I referenced above in forecasting where gold might go next. See how copper broke the downtrend line about two weeks ago. It has spent the time since "riding" the line down, but on the other (breakout) side. What should happen next is a further breakaway from the old trend as the new trend asserts itself.

OK, so now to silver. I sure wish I could draw on this chart because several things clearly stand out. (By tomorrow, I will.) Connect the August 2011 high with the October 2012 high and extend the line. Then, connect the June 2012 lows and the early January 2013 lows and also note the horizontal support near $30. Anyway, though a drop all the way to $28 isn't out of the picture, I only give that likelihood about 1 chance in 4. Far more likely is that, with the turn in gold described above, silver bottoms right near here, somewhere between $30 and $31. From there a rally to that line I had you draw connecting the old highs, right now near $32.50 or so. Remember that the 100-day MA is in that area, too. Once again...The Big Test. This next time, I believe that silver will pass.

And simply because I was able to print them while HP was on life support, here are two other charts for you. Note that both crude and platinum have rallied back to clear resistance. If they fail to break through again on this pass, the weakness will help encourage that final washout spike in the metals I'm looking hoping for.

Finally, just a couple of other items to consider. First this article was posted in the previous thread and I like it a lot. In fact, I wish I had written it. It discusses the coming, new paradigm in a straight-forward and understandable way. Please take the time to read it and you might even consider forwarding the link to those who are just awakening.

And I thought I would post the charts you'll find below. Someone emailed them to me yesterday. I think they come from Casey so I hope they don't mind that I'm posting them here. (If they suddenly disappear from this post, I guess you'll know why.) Look them over and, by all means, feel free to draw your own conclusions and discuss.

That's it. It's off to Sam's or Costco for a new printer...and probably some Valentine's roses for MrsF, too.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 13, 2013 - 12:11pm



Feb 13, 2013 - 12:13pm

Kill the printer!

Video unavailable
Feb 13, 2013 - 12:14pm


Use one of Ben's, he's got plenty...

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:15pm

third ammendment

No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:18pm

Looks like I might have

Looks like I might have jumped too soon by adding to my stack yesterday! I still have faith that I'm making the right decision by stacking at every opportunity, but it sure does leave a person feeling like they're being hung out to dry. Having said that...BTFD folks! It's the most sane choice in a list of insane choices. Okay, back to our normal programming...

...and it looks like I got the prestigious THURD this go around!

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:22pm


So those Shorts at all time high will be dumped in this final washout....i mean the shorts are Humongous??

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:23pm

And The Fed

Has killed the economy.


Sixth Amendment - Rights of Accused in Criminal Prosecutions

In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:24pm

Obama says he sees Kleptoamerica more productive and


That means very soon, Wally World will be all over China and we will be making all the crap for them to buy since we will have the cheapest labor in the world.. Thank you mr Bernank

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:26pm

I'm sorry, I don't understand

I think The Cartels are trying to draw in spec shorts, into which they are covering their own.

Let's wait for the CoT for (some) confirmation.

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:34pm


Thanks.Yes,I guess we'll have to wait till the weekend & the action in between to find out....can't believe the morons take 3 full days to release stale date at a later dateangry

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:35pm


Thanks.Yes,I guess we'll have to wait till the weekend & the action in between to find out....can't believe the morons take 3 full days to release stale date at a later dateangry

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:40pm

Big Buffalo wrote: being

Big Buffalo wrote:

being patient....waiting for 30.80 and 30.70, tight stop then 30.30.

Have order in at 30.10 which is a little on high end area of support from daily and 240 charts below, circles are support areas I'm referring to. Seems like safe entry, no stop, if we just run through it I'm going to be pissed.


Feb 13, 2013 - 12:42pm

Hey hey

Check out the 5 year charts on yen arge peso etc. thought Venezuela would show more kick though

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:45pm

heads up! wheaties warrants expiry just after labor (labour) day

silver wheaton warrants expire in a little over six months (sept 5th, '13). time to be looking for a good point to get off the bus. 

i don't like getting jammed up against a deadline.

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:47pm

@TURD, This guy is saying

@TURD, This guy is saying Death Cross coming 1590 !!!

Here is a chart. 

Do you think this is a possibility ?


Feb 13, 2013 - 12:52pm


I stay convinced that the PMs can not move higher until the broader market weakens ... yet day after day it keeps going up ... although it is looking more and more tired and the sentiment indexes are getting more and more bullish ... so it should be just a matter of time.

We will also need miners to cooperate, and hopefully lead, but that will not start until after the earnings season is mostly done (end of next week???) , unless by some fricking miracle we get a few early earnings surprises.

Feb 13, 2013 - 12:58pm

From Ed Steers Site

Yesterday I received an e-mail from Joshua Gibbons, the Guru of the SLV bar list over at the Internet site.

Ever since silver analyst Ted Butler began to speak up about the naked short positions held in SLV shares...mostly by the large authorized participants, of which JPMorgan Chase is/was the leading suspect...more and more silver commentators are talking about it...including both Joshua and myself...and this is what Joshua had to say about the big reduction in the SLV short position.

Hi Ed,

"You'll probably be hearing all about this soon, but the new SLV short position was just released. It went down by 17,866,500 to 7,297,500, a drop of 10,569,000 shares (about 10,219,000 oz)."

"My suspicion is that JPM had shorted exactly 10 Moz of SLV shares, to use while collecting 10 Moz of silver in their new New York vault (they deposited 10,000,998.7 oz. in that vault at the time of the 18.4 Moz SLV deposit in January), and the other 219,000 oz. of SLV short covering was just normal SLV short activity. So over time they accumulated a 10 Moz SLV short position, and also accumulated 10 Moz of silver in New York, and last month deposited the 10 Moz of silver with SLV to create 10 Moz worth of SLV shares to close out their SLV short position (still leaving 7.2 Moz worth of SLV short, some of which could belong to JPM as well)."

"It does come very, very close to proving that JPM had a 10 Moz short position in SLV (and that it either was backed by silver, or they were in the process of backing it by silver). However, it does not explain the other 8.4 Moz of silver that was deposited that day, nor the 8.9 Moz of silver that was substituted (the 8.9 Moz of SLV silver in the Johnson Matthey vault was removed, and replaced with a different 8.9 Moz of silver in a different vault as part of the 18.4 Moz deposit). And 8.4 Moz deposit by itself would have qualified as one of the largest SLV deposits in several years, so there is still a part of the mystery yet to be solved. - JG"

Pretty much looks like many have suspected? That SLV is if nothing else a front for JPM to Naked short and manipulate/control the price of silver. How is it that everyone can see it more and more, yet, after more than four years the CFTC can't. Because if you give the CFTC it proper name not the false one they are using it make total sense. Should be titled "Crooked Fucking Trading Commission" Much more appropriate name and in that light explains everything about why nothing ever gets done about the metals manipulation. They are nothing but window dressing. 

Russell R. Wasendorf, Sr. get's 50 years for stealing $215,000, while Obummer's bum buddy Corzine steals $1.6 billion and still walks free. As Matt Taibbi so eloquently said in a recent interview that there are two rules of law in the USA. One for the average Joe and none for the Wall Street Bankster crowd and the above makes that abundantly clear.

Fat Willie
Feb 13, 2013 - 1:05pm

A little perspective on predictions

This article is from back in 2010 I believe. What I found interesting were the various predictions by the experts for gold and silver prices. 

Anyway, just a little perspective for everybody.

Feb 13, 2013 - 1:07pm

Death Cross

In Dec. 2011 this article said gold would go down as a result of the death cross.

From Kitco, here is the chart for Jan 2012 and Dec. 2011. Despite the death cross prediction, gold went from around $1530 to $1740. Seems like a good contrary indicator. 

Edit, sorry, the charts did not post.



Feb 13, 2013 - 1:09pm

Nice Charts

Nice charts TF, especially the add ons. That US banks show no long positions shows one could be forgiven for thinking that US banks own the world and are selling what they own. Otherwise, well... it would sure seem like fraud dontchaknow.

Feb 13, 2013 - 1:10pm
Feb 13, 2013 - 1:12pm

I missed the $17k gold by 2012 prediction from JS

Anybody got a link to that prediction?

Texas Sandman
Feb 13, 2013 - 1:19pm

My model

For SI futures (daily) flipped to short yesterday. But February is one of the best months of the year for seasonals.

So, who knows...

One thing you need to realize is markets exist for the purpose of executing orders. And I would have to think the EE is looking hungrily at the tidal wave of stops you'll likely find right below 29.50. I'm not one of the anointed ones, who actually gets to see them, but anybody with a brain KNOWS they're there!

Feb 13, 2013 - 1:22pm

If Silver drops below $29.5 we break the 4 year uptrend...

Gold has already done that (not good ), so now its time for Silver!

If that happens and we get a DOW pull back then its soiled underpants time!

Feb 13, 2013 - 1:23pm

This pretty-much sums up gold and silver

over the last couple of years...

Ok, that was the practice run wink.

The Green Manalishi
Feb 13, 2013 - 1:28pm

Hey Bollocks

I told you not to get too excited, could be an interesting watch though wink

Options Mike Maloney
Here's the big announcement Facebook friends! Stay tuned...
Texas Sandman
Feb 13, 2013 - 1:30pm


The other purpose of markets is soiled underwear. Maybe we break it marginally intraday to soil the underwear & then it turns...

Then we'll have TF in our underwear.

Feb 13, 2013 - 1:41pm

@The Green Manalishi

Hmmm. Well I know about the "hidden secrets of money", so I doubt there'll be anything new there, but it's bound to be interesting, I agree.

I like Mike Maloney - he's a straight-talker with tons of experience.

It should be a BS-free series smiley.

Feb 13, 2013 - 1:46pm


"If Silver drops below $29.5 we break the 4 year uptrend..."

I got about 29.00 on monthly and 29.25 on weekly (red lines). But since forks are like trend lines on steroids I prefer to watch those more closely, those are about 27.50 (medium line) and 20.20 (bottom of fork) on monthly and about 27.00 on weekly.

Feb 13, 2013 - 1:52pm

@GL: Rant

GL, I just read your early morning rant from the last thread. While I agree with most of what you said please don't dis the horsemeat.

It is indicative of TEOTGKE, as an indicator of inflation and the subtle, underhand use of the hedonic substitution by corporate entities. FYI: The joke was the reference to rodents by Bollocks and myself, I think.

Glancing at the charts it looks like gold is making new short term lows while silver is getting the same 30.80 bounce as Monday, while SLW is not holding today's gains. Look for SLW to drop tomorrow as max pain is $36 for opex.

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