Thunder Road

Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - 10:49am

Our pal, Paul Mylchreest, has written another outstanding research piece.

Near and dear to our hearts, this one deals with silver. And not a moment too soon, given today's nasty price action and the current plethora of bearish forecasts.

In this report, Paul identifies a few, key cycles within the silver market and uses these cycles to make a very bold prediction. I don't want to steal his "Thunder" and I want you to read the entire report...but...suffice it to say, he thinks the next 6 months are going to be very exciting.


Thunder Road Report -February 2013 by Turd Ferguson

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 193


Dolomite · Feb 11, 2013 - 10:54am

Second... but First to hat tip

Second... but FIRST to hat tip Turd cheeky

Okay now to read the Thunder Road article... lots of chart goodness I see.

CaribSurfKing · Feb 11, 2013 - 10:55am

The last 6 months have been abhorent...

So the next 6 months better be exciting, and not in a lower Silver price way!

Not sure I can take Silver and Gas on a 2:1 ratio, hahaha!

silver66 · Feb 11, 2013 - 10:56am

Thank you Thank you Thank you

Turd , I am a huge fan of the Thunder Road report.

It is printing out now as I type this message. I will pour over and enjoy


Nana · Feb 11, 2013 - 10:57am


Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.

JML-2012 · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:00am



Edit- a first First! laugh

To the poster in the last thread who posted two Youtube vids of Sheikh Imran Hosein discussing the role of Gold as money and the implications of the end of the petrodollar- Thank you for the introduction! I am always drawn to hearing truth spoken, regardless of the source. I'm listening now to a longer lecture of his now, near the beginning he mentions his interactions with Hugo Salinas Price and the efforts to re-establish silver currency in Mexico. The interconnectedness of things fascinating! Truly a small world.

achmachat · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:02am


more Jim Willie... and it's long!

Jim Willie on currency wars and the rejection of the US dollar
philly · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:10am

Time to BTFD?!?

Top ten for far the only good thing about this particular Monday!!

Groaner · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:11am

the pig just dropped 15 ticks fast.

see what happens with the metals

Groaner · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:13am
silver66 JML-2012 · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:26am

JML 2012

I too searched his videos last night after seeing him in a thread. I watched a couple short youtube videos, no flies on this guy.

Thanks for posting this one, I like you, like to hear from different perspectives.

I will watch 


henrywalker · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:31am

Gold Silver as currency

Interesting the earlier video from JML re gold in the Islamic world. The classical currency within the Caliphate (Islamic State) economic system is exclusively gold and silver.

A few features of what those trying to topple Assad in Syria and return the Caliphate, are seeking to re-establish in the Muslim world:

1. Only gold and silver as currency (paper issued dirhams and dinars must be 100% backed by physical metal at the state treasury). No fractional reserve banking.

2. Only Spot market trading allowed for gold and silver and several other key commodities - with immediate delivery.

3. No short selling allowed in currency and financial markets.

4. No derivative contracts allowed with the exception of a few specifically defined in the agriculture sector.

No wonder the State department called the return of the Caliphate in the Muslim world (along with the emergence of China) as its 2 most important strategic threats of this generation.

dropout · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:32am


Not only fake gold and silver ingots, coins, etc. Showing up around the globe, but also fake name brand everything else!

Big food suppliers in Europe are hating life today. Turns out that since the ban in Romania on all horse and donkey traffic on their road system, thousands of these animals have made their way to slaughter houses.

What to do with all that meat? Enter a Cypriot trading agent who buys this product. Forwards it on to a processor in Luxemburg and after some "blending", ships it out for further processing and frozen packaging in at least 4 countries, then it makes its way to 14 different European countries, to show up in the frozen food section of numerous different shopping chains.

 Some "ground beef" has been found to contain upwards of 70% of horse and donkey meat! Some big corporations in the front line are taking it on the chin, namely MacDonalds and Burger King. This will have financial repercussions throughout the global markets.

Where to put your wealth to be safe? How about some BK or Mickey D's stock? Not!

Groaner · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:41am

I can't believe that the physical demand has no effect

on these stinking crooks who insist on selling paper..

tobydaniel · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:43am

I love these smash downs!

Turd, I'm not sure what you meant by nasty price action. My physical metal on eBay actually just sold for $52.10:) my prior bunch sold for 55 an ounce per coin! Turd, who cares about the paper price? It's a waste of time even going over it. The reason why my coins are selling for 40 percent over spot is because of supply. I just turn over those profits to purchase more phyzz! Let them bash silver. They are only hurting themselves.

Groaner tobydaniel · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:43am


Who are stupid enough to pay that much premium on Ebay?

You have no problem getting paid, no scams?

Road_Scholar · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:47am

Morning raid

Blythe, "send the Monkeys to Hammer to the Comex. Fundos don't matter. Sell, sell, sell..."


Daedalus Mugged · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:48am


Is the latest TRR in pdf form anywhere? Something about my computer/browswer/security does not play well with scribd.

Groaner · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:51am

from 3am on the selling bars got bigger and bigger as

the morning progressed right to the massive hammer at comex open..

Someday these people will get their just dos

usk · Feb 11, 2013 - 11:59am

ETFs are fantastic tools for the cartel to suppress miners

By creating those ETFs, they have redirect real demand for physical. By creating GLD and SLV, they have redirect investor demand that previously used to go in miners shares.

Second beautiful derivative tool: GDX and GDXJ. Why invest in companies when you can reproduce performances by investing in these ETFs?

They sold the idea, and now GDX and GDXJ are becoming MAJOR holders in these miners. The cartel just needs to short these ETFs to suppress the prices of the miners. When GDXJ selloff occurs, most of the juniors are sold at market. Brillant.

crg · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:01pm


Its down, dont fight it. Sinclair can scream $3500 all he wants. We can hate the CARTEL. Not enough money coming in, simple. If all the nonsense in Egypt, Argentina, Venezuela cant pop this higher, than what will? Maybe no one cares so far about currency issues. To me, if they did, metals would pop higher.No panic buying has occurred. This market is so unrealistic. Dan N has 1640 at the bottom. Hope that holds. We need more money coming in.....

Groaner · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:02pm
Road_Scholar · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:03pm

Time for a bloody mary

and a beer back. Check out the breakfast of champions!

SIlverbee · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:07pm

To be honest ...

Its starting to hurt.

Also I had a difficult conversation with the missus over the weekend to try and justify putting a fair amount of our house deposit into G and S last year and it had gone down whereas she pointed out quite rightly had we kept it in the bank it would have earned X. Yes you and I know all the answers to that question but when we need to buy a house now or there abouts none of them hold water. Over the last year or so me the investment guru scored zero , the missus the model of a sheeple scores 1. 

Zoltan · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:14pm

Lease Rates Back to "Normal" (still shows on chart)

I know many don't care about this (or just chalk it up to "bad data") but there is a pattern here that has been happening since 2009.

Gold Lease Rates

February 11, 2013
1 m -0.0711% +0.2222
2 m -0.0408% +0.2792
3 m -0.0186% +0.3214
6 m 0.0866% +0.4966
1 y 0.3383% +0.7833

Lease Rates

Expect the chart to go flat in the next few days.

Also silver rates have gone from zero (where they spiked to last week) back to normal.

Silver Lease Rates
Feb 11 2013 Change
1M 0.0222% +0.0222
2M 0.0375% +0.0375
3M 0.0531% +0.0531
6M 0.2149% +0.2149
1Y 0.5450% +0.5450

Just documenting it for anyone who cares (like me and maybe S Roche, some times, but I know he is in the "just bad data" camp).


Bollocks · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:17pm

Horsemeat BS

I saw a gov't spokesperson interviewed on the BBC over the weekend say that the horsemeat scandal is simply a case of "mislabeling".

Can you believe that? It's just mislabeling. So the burgers and lasagne should say "horsemeat" on the packets rather than "beef", yes? Then all would be okay. Oh, and we're all idiots, by the way.

Everyone in government needs to be FIRED.

debtless · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:24pm

USLV anyone?

Just picked mine up (too much probably ;) - we'll see if the Ag $30.80 is the day's bounce.

Groaner · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:27pm

So who's hungry?

Let's all go to McDonkeys and have a fine tasting Donkey burger deluxe.. hmmm good.. 

The party is over.. pathetic to say the least.

We think its bad here.

In the Darfur region of Africa the government hoods steal shipments of food thats for the starving people while they end up having to eat mud cakes.

H8Fiat SIlverbee · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:30pm

Amen Silverbee

Thinking of changing my name and investing in Tucks, AAPL, FB, GM and all the other Fed favorites.

atadheavy · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:30pm

Don't fight the FED? True - unless you're very patient

Been hanging around here a long time. My premise is simple - the simplest explanation is usually the best explanation. The more I read (both here, at Trader Dan, GATA etc.) the more I am convinced of the following. First GATA is just plain right -> The FED manipulates PM prices to preserve the perception (i.e. MOPE) of a dollar that is not sinking with other fiat currencies. Why - because they HAVE to, or the gig is up and the rush into PMs would begin in earnest). Next, the FED is JPM's "Client" (see Blthye Master's TV interview last year) and the FED has unlimited money (literally) to spend in keeping metals suppressed.

Think about it - why would any private, profit-motivated short seller execute trades the way the secret JPM client does - because their primary goal is not to make money on that individual short sale - the primary goal is to keep PM prices down, while losing as little money as possible. Put simply, the FED could not care less if they lose a battle here and there (see recent FUBMs) - they MUST fight the war on PMs to support the dollar. Think about it - if you ran the FED - wouldn't you do EXACTLY the same thing? The FED's "product" is the dollar -and they want it to have a perception of value against real assets, just not when compared to other fiat currencies. IF these things are true - and they almost have to be true - what conclusions can we make? I know its been said a thousand times - WHO CARES if PM prices get smashed. PM PRICES ARE GOING TO BE SMASHED AGAIN AND AGAIN UNTIL THEY CAN'T BE SMASHED ANY MORE! That could be a week or 5 years. Who knows - I sure don't.

All I know is I really, truly stopped caring when PMs surge or when they get crushed about a year ago. I try to buy when prices sink and sell only when I have no choice. Why would anyone buy and hold under the situation described above. Only one reason - because one believes that the FED through JPM can hold off market forces for only so long - and then the friggin' dam breaks on them and most of the boats left floating will ne loaded with PMs.

One final thought - Turd did an interview a few weeks ago with one of the GATA guys (Murphy?) and Turd was expressing understandable frustration with the CFTC, Chilton, et. al. The response from GATA was not "Turd - you're right, the CFTC is worthless, they're in on the manipulation also". No, instead it was something like: "Well, you know Chilton's doing all he can - given that the FED is the one doing the manipulation" (paraphrased - go back and listen to it for the exact words). So, the guys that are on the front lines in the manipulation battle are very understanding of the fact that Chilton's hands are tied. Does anyone seriously expect Chilton to bring the rain down on JPM when the defense for JPM is "Our client is the FED, we're working for the Gubmint! - BACK-OFF!!" I suspect Chilton had all of this explained to him some time ago and now just goes through the motions.

TAKE AWAY? BTFD! (and quit worrying about the interim battles)

ancientmoney Groaner · Feb 11, 2013 - 12:32pm

@Groaner, R_S re: physical demand has no effect . . .

The reason is because the bankers (JPM, HSBC, BoA primarily) are playing a shell game. They control COMEX via concentrated shorting, and bleed out SLV inventory (JPM is custodian, so controls the physical there) to meet demand on LBMA, replacing the physical with more paper. 

My guess is that the 100:1 leverage JC admitted to at CFTC hearings has grown to about 150:1. In essence, they have illicitly and silently placed price controls on PMs, especially silver through their manipulations of the major paper and physical piles.

It appears they will continue this method until they can't. Meaning, when the physical stocks fall to a level that they can no longer abide, they will call "game over" in silver and gold trading as we know it today.

This is all done in the name of keeping the dollar-based financial system running a little longer, until all plans are finalized. Silver, I think, will be the linchpin in traversing from the old financial system to the new.

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