Strange Days, Indeed

Sat, Feb 9, 2013 - 12:28pm

Most peculiar, mama...

There's so much weird stuff going on, some days it's nearly impossible to know where to start. The Fed and other central banks have so gummed-up the system with their money printing, that almost all traditional methods of analysis, both technical and fundamental, are useless. The financial media, which is either completely uninformed/uneducated or complicit (or both!), SPINs and MOPEs nearly every headline into something it's not, adding significance to the unsignificant and downplaying or outright misreporting those items which truly are important. The result is this current state of bewilderment, a house of mirrors where nothing is as it appears to be.

I just wrote a lengthy essay about this back in October ( so it's not productive to plow that same territory again today. However, I have found some very strange divergences for you to ponder and I need you to consider them within this context.

Below is a table of data taken from various silver CoT reports over the last two years. I've tried to pinpoint information from six, different periods of either price tops or price bottoms. You'll note that, though this is not an exact science, we'll nonetheless be able to draw a few conclusions at the end.


12/31/12 38,291 9,104 4.2:1 45,415 90,751 2.00:1 $29--> ?

8/14/12 32,317 16,730 1.93:1 47,797 71,199 1.49:1 28-->35

12/27/11 24,026 17,171 1.40:1 41,224 55,356 1.34:1 27-->37

10/4/11 23,859 11,959 1.99:1 39,584 58,507 1.48:1 28-->35

6/28/11 27,439 11,441 2.40:1 36,894 66,060 1.79:1 33-->44

1/25/11 38,699 10,473 3.70:1 29,818 72,964 2.45:1 28-->49

So, what deductions, if any, can we draw from this relatively small sample size?

  • First of all, don't get too sidetracked by the gross numbers as they are relative to the total open interest. This is why I've calculated the net long ratio of the specs and the net short ratio of the Cartel.
  • If you throw out the 1/25/11 data, which preceded the HUGE move from 28-49, you see that the average net long ratio of the specs at the bottoms is around 2:1. Additionally, the net short ratio of The Cartel at the bottoms is generally around 1.5:1.
  • Note the gradual increase in the gross long position of The Cartel versus the variance of the gross short position.
  • OK, now let's look at some data from price tops.


    11/27/12 51,804 12,351 4.14:1 42,525 99,317 2.34:1 34-->29

    9/18/12 43,205 10,650 4.06:1 31,884 82,358 2.58:1 35-->30

    2/28/12 38,012 8,009 4.75:1 33,802 78,395 2.32:1 37-->27

    10/25/11 23,660 12,638 1.87:1 38,176 61,692 1.62:1 35-->26

    8/23/11 38,756 11,745 3.30:1 34,281 81,380 2.37:1 44-->28

    4/26/11 43,078 18,083 2.38:1 35,763 78,297 2.19:1 49-->33

  • Note that all three price peaks of 2012 coincided with spec long ratios exceeding 4:1.
  • Outside of 4/26/11 (when they made a pile of $$$), the spec shorts are almost always near 11,000 or so.
  • With the exception of the 10/25/11 top (right before the MFG liquidations), all five other tops occurred when the Cartel net short ratio was in the 2.30:1 area.
  • Excluding the 11/27/12 top, The Cartel gross long position averages about 40,000 at the tops.
  • Now, what kind of general statements can we make, again given this somewhat small sample size?

    • The gross amount of large spec long contracts has grown over time.
    • Regardless of tops or bottoms, the large spec short position remains relatively constant, generally in the 12,000-14,000 area.
    • Though clearly larger in size at bottoms rather than tops, note how The Cartel gross long position has grown over time.
    • Similarly, note the steady growth of The Cartel gross short position.
    • Again, with the exception of the top that occurred with the failure and liquidation of MFG in early November of 2011, the most consistent indicator of tops and bottoms is The Cartel net short ratio. Anywhere near 1.5:1 is a clear buy signal and anything near 2.3:1 is a sell signal.

    Now lets's look at the data released yesterday, based off the closing positions of last Tuesday, the 5th.


    42,449 6,588 6.45:1 46,293 98,239 1.99:1

    So what in the world do we make of this? Can you see where this is all so confusing?

    • At 42,449, the Large Spec gross long position looks more toppy than bottomy.
    • And 6,588 gross shorts is an amazingly low number. The only number even close is the 8,009 from the highs of 2/28/12. Additionally, this puts the spec net long ratio is all the way up 6.44:1.
    • But, before you conclude that the data is indicating a major top, look at the Cartel gross long position. At 46,293 it's just below the high of 47,797 that we saw at the price lows of August, right before the announcement of QE∞ and a price rally from $28 to $35.
    • And the overall Cartel net short ratio is neutral at just under 2:1.

    So, I'm not even going to attempt to draw conclusions from this...because I don't think you can! The main items that I think are significant are these, however:

    1. Currently there's hardly any spec interest in being short. Therefore, very little fuel for a spec short squeeze.
    2. Though there is some fuel for a long liquidation, at $31 how many can be forced out on a dip?
    3. An even if they did, would other "commercial" buying inhibit the ability of JPM et al to cover extensively?
    4. In the end, the single most intriguing aspect of the current reports is the brewing/ongoing Civil War between JPM and everyone else. Uncle Ted has proclaimed that this current data shows that JPM has become the "seller of last resort" and the only remaining "fresh shorter". I think he's right and the stage is set for a massive squeeze, not of the specs but of JPM. We simply need a spark.

    The charts would seem to confirm this stagnation, too. Though I was hoping that the pennants on the hourly charts would close and propel prices higher, instead prices broke down and out back on Thursday. So now we await the closing of the pennants on the daily charts, instead. March, it would appear, is going to be a very interesting month. Until then, it looks like more sideways churn.

    Just a couple of other items you might like before we call it a weekend. First, several folks found this presentation yesterday and emailed it to me. Basically chart porn but fun to look through anyway:

    One of our sponsors, JMBullion, sent me this handy link. Please take a moment to check it out. You'll likely find it helpful.

    And I'd like to close with this. There has been lots of debate here over the past few days over what information is important on "Main St" and what should be taken to the forums. Frankly, since I can't police the site 24 hours a day, you all have quite a bit of latitude. The number one thing that we all must keep in mind is this: I built this site to help and to educate. Though prepping and conspiratorial topics are sometimes interesting and enlightening, the main focus must remain on metals and investing. To that end, please consider this email that I received late yesterday. My goal is not to be some type of draconian czar who rules content with an iron fist, however we must remain relatively on-point at all times if we are to do the greatest good. I ask you to always use discretion when posting and to consider whether or not your are helping the site to succeed in its overall mission.

    Hi Turd
    I've been a member of this site for a year and 4 months and a reader for a while before that. I am not typical of those who make up the vast majority of membership. I am female, unmarried and make under $40k a year. I am just an average person who, by a most fortunate turn of events, found your site and it changed my life. Blinders came off and I began to see the world for what it really was. My very small stack is held by very strong female hands. Thank you for helping me see ways to save my financial future. I suspect the creation of this site was to reach as many people like myself..former sheeple.
    I live on Mainstreet...I read every post, every day and am energized by the thoughtful and insightful posts...even the provocative ones..however..
    I am in the camp of common sense. This is a metals blog and all things relating to it, and I accept and appreciate the ancillary topics that get brought up and the subsequent discussions that result. What I am really really REALLY finding difficult these days is the proliferation of all these posts that you have repeatedly asked folks to take to the forums, ESPECIALLY the political wing nuts. The "you must have issue with my smarmy, irrelevant and arrogant posts which push my own agenda and bring nothing of value to this blog because you're a liberal bastard" kinds of thing going on. I adore Dr. J, Ivars, Steve, Green Lantern, Cal Lawyer and of course..DPH! Many others too...Mainstreet is FILLED with wonderful minds and I am in awe of these folks. I know you make requests periodically to us members to keep Mainstreet "clean", but these same individuals will behave for a short while then decide to vomit all over this forum yet again.
    I have an ignore button and yes, I do know how to use it, but it's the discourse that those posts create that I find particularly distressing. I can only speak for myself, but I suspect there are many many more like me who have fled in silence rather than deal with the muckrakers. So I respectfully someone who truly loves this site and visits every day and listens to your message..can something be done to keep Mainstreet focused?
    Thank you for all you do, **********

    Have a great weekend. See you Monday and be prepared for volatility as the Chinese New Year holidays begin.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Feb 11, 2013 - 8:57am
    Feb 11, 2013 - 8:57am

    Gold, Silver Plunge In

    Gold, Silver Plunge In Sympathy With Popexit

    The precious metals market appears to have found a size seller this morning. Despite record breaking demand for physical coins from the Mint, gold and silver prices hit an air pocket around 8amET but had been sold all day in Europe. We humbly suggest that his Holiness spread out his retirement selling... of course we saw a similar gap last Tuesday and Thursday as Europe's risk-asset markets continue to slide (and perhaps collateral margin calls come due). Of course, the more important questions remain: which TBTF bank will the pope end up as vice-chairman in, and which ex-Goldman Managing Director/Partner will be the next head of the Vatican bank... and incidentally Catholic Church (it appears a Canadian is front-runner, rather coincidental given Carney's recent appointment).

    Green Lantern
    Feb 11, 2013 - 8:59am


    I have seen nothing that trashes the spiritual tenets of Catholism. I didn't see what excalibur wrote and then self censored. Nobody here is taking any issue to anybodies spiritual believes!

    A discussion of the financial affairs of a church is a secular discussion. The discussion of Israel is not a discussion about Judiasm.

    Yes, take great care in respecting the believes of any religion. A right held in high regard by the Constitution. Take equally great care to not interpret such discussions, especially when they relate to the metals, as prejudices against somebodies spirituality.

    Yes, there is a razor's edge in this topic in that both sides must be equally equanimous and deal with the financial realities. Catholicism is not at issue here. AT ALL!

    And since I live in the real world, work with Catholics, eat with Catholics, I even dated a Catholic girl at one time, my experience is that Catholic like all religions have divergence of opinions about certain spiritual issues as well as secular issues.

    The moment somebody starts criticizing some bodies spiritual believes, I will be the first to call them on it.

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:03am

    Same Old Shit

    Pigatha up 0.1%

    PM's down 1%

    This shit is getting ridiculous!! And obvious, but they have no shame anymore. And you can;t fight The Fed/JPM. I'm stacked but not stacking any more!!

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:06am


    Curious to see the sudden call for civility when it comes to one religion, but the previous open season on liberals, gun control, Obamacare, .... because if you think about it Jesus was a liberal, he would have favored gun control, and he would have been all for a form of single payer medicine, and for higher tax rates on the rich, ..... But hey, such is the upside down Alice in Wonderland world that we inhabit these days. I guess to be religious you have to be capable of holding multiple contradictory (and fact defying) ideas in your head.

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:07am

    Sorry Roche, me again

    RE your LINK....while I wholly applaud the endeavour to weigh up every side of the argument in Silver, I must point out that while 'Kid Dynamite' may or may not be neutral (didnt he write silly anti-Maguire stuff etc?) FT Alphaville is in my opinion thoroughly biased. The article may not be by her specifically, but Ms I Kaminska rules that shop with an iron fist (note the 'we think this' language), and I heard from her own mouth that she 'doesn't like goldbugs' indeed she likes to pick a fight with them at every turn in peurile fashion. Apparently we should all eschew safety and stacking and be putting our savings into productive businesses for the common good....enough to make the head spin were it not such obvious and ill-informed drivel. Alphaville seems to feel the need to overcomplicate and persistently justify the status quo (think nature of money and existence of trading bots).

    There you go, I feel it is pertinent to point out that while the 'ra-ra-ra' cheerleader crowd may get an earful at every turn for pointing out clear fraud and manipulation, often these more mainstream naysayers are let off scot free. Not at my end, indeed they must depart scolded and bitter. When push comes to shove, SLV is a great big hypothecation and counterparty blob of risk, any numbers they report just go in the same trashcan as the 'JPM reported numbers'.

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:09am

    17,500 contracts dumped in 15 minutes in gold

    Who and why? guess,,, and to manipulate price only...

    The evil empire at your service..

    Send you kids off to die for the Bankers,, yeah,, rah rah,, we are the greatest and they are the bad people.

    A simplified version of your entire life being brain washed!

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:10am


    Doh ! -- double post - hit "return" twice

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:11am

    CBO nonsense....

    Bruce Krasting at zerohedge posted an article about the laughability of the CBO estimates. Here is that article.

    I looked at their 10 year budget projections starting in 1998, and then compared their forecasts versus that actual results that occurred during 1999-2012. The results were SHOCKING (lol). Obviously trying to project anything 10 years into the future is difficult in a dynamic system with an almost infinite amount of input variables. Here is the average data errors for the period.

    Projections vs Actual 1999-2012
    P+1 P+2 P+3 P+4 P+5 P+6 P+7 P+8 P+9 P+10 P+11
    Revenues 1.3% 6.1% 10.3% 13.2% 14.8% 15.1% 15.4% 16.7% 19.6% 24.4% 28.4%
    Outlays -0.2% -3.8% -7.0% -10.2% -12.8% -15.8% -18.8% -22.8% -26.7% -32.8% -38.2%
    Gross Federal Debt -1.1% -4.2% -9.7% -16.7% -24.2% -30.9% -37.5% -48.4% -64.7% -90.0% -114.3%

    Where P+1 is the next years estimate i.e. 1999 report P+1 is he estimate for FY 1999. Fiscal Year (FY) for government run from 10/1-9/30.

    As you can see from the table the out years drastically underestimate both outlays and federal debt, while overestimating revenue. So if you apply that error table to the current 2013 projections you can adjust and get a better idea of where the actual results will end up in 10 years (assuming that they suck as bad they do now). The out years only contained 3 data points, so you can't attach a confidence interval to these adjustments. Nonetheless I still think it's a good visualization of what we could reasonably expect.

    Projections from CBO Annual Report 2013-2024 ($B)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Revenue $ 2,708 $ 3,003 $ 3,373 $ 3,591 $ 3,765 $ 3,937 $ 4,101 $ 4,279 $ 4,496 $ 4,734 $ 4,961
    Outlays $ 3,553 $ 3,618 $ 3,803 $ 4,067 $ 4,300 $ 4,542 $ 4,811 $ 5,078 $ 5,350 $ 5,691 $ 5,939
    Deficit/Surplus $ (845) $ (615) $ (430) $ (476) $ (535) $ (605) $ (710) $ (799) $ (854) $ (957) $ (978)
    Gross Federal Debt $ 17,047 $ 17,864 $ 18,479 $ 19,143 $ 19,915 $ 20,769 $ 21,711 $ 22,729 $ 23,784 $ 24,911 $ 26,052
    Projections using the average CBO error from 1998-2012 ($B)
    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
    Revenue $ 2,673 $ 2,820 $ 3,024 $ 3,115 $ 3,206 $ 3,343 $ 3,469 $ 3,563 $ 3,617 $ 3,581 $ 3,552
    Outlays $ 3,560 $ 3,756 $ 4,069 $ 4,480 $ 4,851 $ 5,260 $ 5,718 $ 6,235 $ 6,777 $ 7,555 $ 8,210
    Deficit/Surplus $ (887) $ (936) $ (1,045) $ (1,365) $ (1,645) $ (1,918) $ (2,248) $ (2,672) $ (3,161) $ (3,974) $ (4,658)
    Gross Federal Debt $ 17,228 $ 18,613 $ 20,274 $ 22,344 $ 24,728 $ 27,185 $ 29,849 $ 33,725 $ 39,171 $ 47,328 $ 55,828

    Why does the market give any credence to their projections?

    It's all apart of the big game. Most everybody in the industry knows its all a scam, they are just trying to keep sucking out fees and commissions before the music stops for good.

    I'm going to also assume that the lady in the email wasn't talking about me. If Mrs. Horse finds out that I have a female admirer, she might put me out to pasture sooner than I had previously forecasted, or just castrate me.

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:11am

    But the best time to stack is

    Quote from Sameoldshit "This shit is getting ridiculous!! And obvious, but they have no shame anymore. And you can;t fight The Fed/JPM. I'm stacked but not stacking any more!!"


    But the best time to stack is just arriving now ...

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:18am

    looks like metals with broken

    looks like metals with broken trendlines. What gives ?

    dannyhaha billwilson
    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:19am

    re: Jesus was a liberal, he would have favored gun control,

    "... Jesus was a liberal, he would have favored gun control..." ,Really?

    American King James Version
    Then said He to them, "But now, he that has a purse, let him take it, and likewise his money: and he that has no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one." Luke 22:36

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:23am

    vatican gold

    this has to do with their fat-ass stack

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:27am

    Global warming alarmists and TFMR

    Stay with me here, I promise there is a point to be made.

    In pointing out the hypocracy of 'advocates' for the theory of global warming jetting around the world (burning more fuel in a year than a dozen average families burn in a decade) to give lectures, living in 9,000 square foot mansions while writing NYT Op-Ed pieces on how we all have to reduce our carbon footprint, Libertarian law professor Glenn Reynolds has famously quipped: "I'll start believing its a crisis when the people who keep telling me its a crisis start actually acting like its a crisis". In other words, by their actions ye shall know them.

    Which brings me to the topic at hand: I would humbly submit that, no matter how much "The end is near" rhetoric is posted here, anybody who truly believes the end is near would not spend entire days on end sitting at a computer posting at TFMR, constantly proclaiming "The end is near". Posting 37 times in a 24 hour period does not indicate any REAL concern that serious prepping needs to be done in order to survive the imminent end-times. By their actions ye shall know them.

    I posted once yesterday, mainly because I spent most of my precious Sunday time doing spring prep work on my fruit trees and preparing for the arrival of a little "high tunnel" moveable greenhouse I just bought so I can increase my food production, lengthen my growing season, and improve my self sufficiency. You see, personally I am quite convinced we will see some seriously hard times, but how these play out is anyone's guess- and the timing of this could be as early as this Spring or as far away as many years down the road. The harsh reality of all this is that none of us know when it will occur. None of us. So the only prudent course is to calmly and carefully prepare to take care of you and yours- one project, one prep, one garden, one tree at a time. And steadily work your ass off to ensure you can put food on the table for your loved ones, and can keep them safe for an extended period.

    So what I am saying, basically, is chill the hell out. Some of us have been at this for five years or more, so the 'sky is falling' rhetoric sounds less like a clarion call to us, and more like an emotional submission to defeatism. Because we have had our eyes open for quite a while and saw all this coming, we didn't panic but instead worked on long-range preps and accumulation of tools, skills, lead, stacks, etc, we are now in a far better place than we were years ago. And we still aren't panicking.

    Everyone knows things are bad, this isn't news. The real question is, what are you going to do about it? Deeds, not words.


    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:28am


    The beginning of the "Oh sh*t I'm holding paper!" enlightenment?

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:31am

    apmex is bogged down

    go figure

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:31am

    The bear's view.

    I find myself currently being a bearish cheerleader, because I expected one last spike down before the cartel cover some shorts before allowing the price to rise a bit higher. So I sold some positions during the recent highs, and put in some buy bids in various currencies, intended to start kicking in initially at a modest gain.

    What I can tell you is that this cartel pressure these last weeks, is just a holding pattern. Few of my buy stops have been triggered. If this is an all-powerful cartel, then they are not doing a very good job so far. In fact, they are frustrating everybody, both the bulls and the bears. Whatever you are planning Blythe, please just get on with it.

    Maybe they will show their hand soon. A massive smack-down will likely be very temporary. They just want to cover some shorts before they pull back to higher prices.

    Maybe I am just one small part of wall of buyers, just waiting to pounce. This holding pattern suggests that all is not well at cartel HQ; perhaps they are hemmed in with no good options. From their citadel, they see that there be dragons if the price rises, and there be dragons if it falls. What are you going to do Blythe? The clock is ticking.

    Eric Original
    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:32am

    Really Turd?

    You allow people on your blog to pound the agenda, day after day after day, that billions will be starved/poisoned to death, the survivors will be slaves to a dictatorship, that has been planned to perfection for a hundred years or more, that the country and thus the world is ruled by a commie marxist anti-christ, and that there is no hope whatsoever for any of us, except of course if you stack plenty of silver and lead, but now a tiny bit of snark about the Pope has you all uncomfortable?

    Mindboggling. Simply mindboggling.

    Eric Original
    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:36am

    OK Eric

    If that is what you think, and if you believe TFMR is a pathetic "death cult" as you famously put it, then why are you here?

    If I genuinely thought that most of a blog was a bunch of psychotic fucktards, I doubt I would spend much time there. Yet here you are again...

    Green Lantern
    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:43am


    Where did all the pagan religions and their false gods and customs that were deeply entrenched disappear to by the 3rd century when Constantine started the Catholic religion which means Universal go?

    They went into the Greek, Roman, Norse, and Native American mythologies that nobody understands and falls asleep in school when they encounter it because even the great mythbusters like Joseph Campell couldn't find the origin of many of these myths and misinterpreted them as psychological archetypes and has been reemphasized in scores of Hollywood movies about these Gods from Percy Jackson to Thor to at least a 1/2 dozen. Forget all the mythologies of vampire's and blood cults that have taken Hollywood by storm in recent years.

    If you can crack the code of these symbolic stories, you've pretty much encapsulated the financial history back to the Tower of Babel.

    I suspect that if anybody even understands what the hell we are talking about then they have truly gone down as far as the rabbit hole goes and then some. Anything less is an incomplete picture of the metals market.

    If you need me, I'll be hanging around archeological websites looking at what science is now discovering but never gets reported. I'm really excited about all the gold and silver they now think is at Machu Pichu which is less important than what they might find and not report.

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:44am

    APMEX is running fine and

    APMEX is running fine and well stocked...... must be momentary delay

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:50am

    Drone Strikes: Murder is Illegal-Paul Craig Roberts

    Drone Strikes: Murder is Illegal-Paul Craig Roberts
    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:50am

    re: The Pope

    He said he is old and tired and he's just too pooped to Pope.

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:51am
    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:53am

    Fundamental reasons for gold being smashed

    Sunday: London Bridge sold to the Chinese. Gold down.

    Monday: Pope is pooped and Vatican ATM broke. Gold down.

    Tuesday: PresBO's teleprompter talks up economy. Gold down.

    Wednesday: Rogue cop shoots down drone. Gold down.

    Thursday: DOW goes up. Gold down.

    Friday: DOW goes down. Gold down.

    Saturday: Dollar goes up. Gold down.

    Sunday: Russia outpaces world in gold. Gold deemed bad. Gold down.

    Feb 11, 2013 - 9:54am

    Larry - you forgot ...

    I make a cup of coffee - GOLD DOWN
    I dare to drink the coffee - GOLD DOWN
    I make another cup of coffee - GOLD DOWN
    Having learnt something, I refuse to drink the coffee - GOLD DOWN

    Feb 11, 2013 - 10:02am

    re: b wilson, et al

    i have not posted about much other than the metals here. but when people attack or assume erroneous information relating to what is truly THE most important aspect of a person's life if that person is a believer, maybe one comment in response is ok.

    Jesus never forced his way or belief on anyone. He did try to change the hearts and souls of man through his teachings however. (just a tad different than the socialists today seem to conduct business wouldn't you agree?)

    as far as Jesus being anti-gun.... well maybe not. the gun of his day was the sword. when judas handed him over wasn't it one of his own disciples that severed the ear of the roman guard? so maybe Jesus was pro-gun and concealed carry?

    i don't claim to know for sure - but i am sure you certainly don't.

    Grigeo Pining 4 the Fjords
    Feb 11, 2013 - 10:02am

    Thank you Pining

    I did not taking the bait thrown out there by EO, and getting drawn into some unpleasantries that started here immediately after his "stink bomb". But enough already.

    "then why are you here"

    Exactly, I don't know how it is possible not to come to the conclusion that the person has serious personal issues.

    Urban Roman
    Feb 11, 2013 - 10:04am

    Pope story

    Not being a Catholic, it doesn't mean that much to me personally, but here's another Pope story. Make what you will of it.

    The Church is one of those centralized concentrations of political power, and retains some of the vestiges of the Roman Empire. Whether you are a believer or not, its demise will almost certainly be a Big F'n Deal.

    Mr. Fix
    Feb 11, 2013 - 10:13am

    RE, Xty, & Pining.

    The rest of you guys can start scrolling.

    Points well taken,

    Xty, I enjoyed our discussion yesterday, and you are correct in your assertion that I tend to focus too much on the American experiment. My only defense, is that is the question that you asked, and I went with it.

    The problems are global, as Jim Willie predicted a couple of years ago, quantitative easing was going to become both global and permanent. Now we have it. Also, gold and silver are global markets, and at least in theory, actions taken in Hong Kong, Singapore, or decisions made in Beijing can have a huge effect on global precious metals markets. Heck, we have plenty of evidence that even the Pope can have a dramatic affect on the precious metals, although it is my contention that the cartels will use any excuse to slam the price down, and make one up if they have to, but with the amount of gold that the Pope is sitting on, it does have fundamental relevance.

    In the future I will attempt to maintain a more global perspective.

    Time will tell.


    When I purchased my house 16 years ago, it was with the intention of being capable of both survival and living off the grid.

    The vast majority of my preparations have already been made, but I will concede that I had not anticipated such a collapse in the local economy. Maybe that is renting a little bit more space in my head than it should, but the fact of the matter is, I genuinely had nothing better to do with my Sunday, so I spent it here.

    Today, I have plenty of “loose ends to tie up”, that require a lot of local businesses to be open, that are normally closed on Sunday. Therefore, I will not be sitting in front of my computer today.

    One last note for the general audience that does not have me listed as “ignore user”.

    I became interested in posting here, at the height of the Dagney Taggart controversy, and was truly fascinated how a herd mentality started trashing her, and demanding that she be removed.

    It should be no surprise by now that I agree with the vast majority of what she had to say, and I actually admired her ability to be so incredibly politically incorrect, that she could cut through the crap, and get right to the point.

    Those that found her offensive scored a victory, in that she removed herself as a daily presence on this blog.

    I personally feel that “Turdville” was a better place with her here. So be it, life goes on.

    I am not attempting to replace her, but it does not surprise me that sharing a similar perspective amongst the same people would garner similar results. Some things are quite predictable.

    Hopefully, at some point in the near future, business will pick up again, and I will be quite busy, earning a living, and socking away as much gold and silver as I can afford.

    In the meantime, you're stuck with me, for as long as you keep me off your “ignore user” list,

    or until Turd removes me from your presence.

    I will make my best attempt at behaving myself.

    Have a nice day.


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    Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

    3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
    3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
    3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
    3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
    3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
    3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

    Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

    3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
    3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
    3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
    3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
    3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
    3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
    3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
    3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
    3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

    Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

    3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
    3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
    3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
    3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
    3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
    3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)