The Dog Wags The Tail...Again

Thu, Feb 7, 2013 - 12:32pm

Take it as a very good sign that this is happening with increasing frequency.

To recap:

  • As noted last week, the POSX sat at the edge of the precipice, near 79. We all expected efforts to, at once, talk UP the dollar and talk DOWN the euro.
  • Today, the man that Goldman placed in Europe, succeeded in talking down the euro.
  • The Gold Cartel pounced and initiated a waterfall decline.
  • To their collective chagrin, massive allocations of physical were sought at these rigged-lower prices.
  • To hedge/cover, The Cartels had to almost as quickly get on the bid in the paper market.
  • And you end up with a chart like this:

This is all well and good and clearly benefited us today. However, note that the rally stopped right at the 1685 resistance level that The Cartel has used to cap the market for several days now. As long as it remains profitable to keep the price there in order to fleece the paper longs, 1685 will continue to act as resistance. The hard part is in predicting what happens next.

And next week brings the Chinese New Year ( If physical demand temporarily slows, then you can rightly expect more downside shenanigans from your friends in New York. If that's the case, look for prices to cling to the blue trendlines on the charts below. Maybe, during the holiday next week, silver sees another drop toward 30.60-30.80? Maybe gold bumps along in the 1660-1670 zone? Again, IF THEY DO, take it as a gift to btfd and stack a little more at the discounted prices. You can bet our Buyers of Size will take them up on it when they return from holiday.

Of course this doesn't mean that prices have to go lower next week. Far from it. In fact, I would imagine that The Cartel actually lost a little money our this morning's trade. They'll be reluctant to try that trick again at these levels so we may very well see gold break $1685 soon (tomorrow?) and head toward $1695, instead. Silver, too, could just as easily break higher and move back toward The Big Test level near $32.50. However, without sustained physical demand, it will be tough to break through so next week is likely still rangebound regardless because of the holiday.

The interesting side note continues to be Sylvia Platinum. Like gold and silver, Sylvia has been rangebound for nearly 16 months. However, just yesterday, she broke UP and out of her range...but just barely. This is akin to gold being a shade above $1800 or silver trading near $36. What will happen next? Can she maintain this level and begin to move higher still? If so, the August 2011 highs above $1900 come into the picture. There is no way that a platinum moving back toward 2011 highs wouldn't provide spillover strength/interest in gold and silver. Therefore, watch ole Sylvia closely in the days ahead.

OK, here are your random items for today. First, Brent at Santiago Capital in SanFran has cranked out another terrific presentation. It deals primarily with fractional reserve banking and is very straightforward and easy to understand. Not only should you watch it but you should forward the link to your friends/family that don't seem to understand the full picture. All you need to do is enter your name and the player begins (I entered "Percival Sweetwater").

Also from my inbox is this: This author always notifies me when he posts something and this one is pretty good:–-big-picture-9511

Many Turdites own/follow Silver Wheaton so I thought I'd pass this one along. Maybe they'll change the name to "Silver&Gold Wheaton"?

As if we didn't have enough to worry about, there's this:

And these: &

And why the hell does the U.S. DHS need 1,600,000,000 rounds of ammo? Are they planning to shoot every U.S. citizen 5 times?? Wait...don't answer that. We need to keep "Main St" on-topic as much as possible.

That's all for now.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 7, 2013 - 12:33pm



Feb 7, 2013 - 12:35pm

Large Puts on Vix

What does anyone think about that.

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:35pm
Feb 7, 2013 - 12:35pm


Yes? Nope.

First is the worst.
Second is the best.
Thurd is the one with the hairiest chest... eh, more or less.

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:37pm


Thanks for the update Turd. That's what keeps me coming back--knowing I'll get a sensible perspective of markets and world events daily from you as well as opinions and links to all things important and conspiratorial from our regulars and lurkers.

I really don't miss anything by not reading the MSM news sites anymore.

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:37pm

RE: Dog Wagging Tail

I don't think metals will break out of the range until the physical supply is gone, and the physical supply will not be gone until the schedule calls for it. Meanwhile, we just have noise. When the interest rates start to go up, then look for things to start to go boom! in the night (and day too smiley).


Feb 7, 2013 - 12:39pm
Feb 7, 2013 - 12:39pm


It hurts, but someone's got to be there eh?

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:40pm

That's not nice

A FUBM followed by a FUTF

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:41pm

The PM "paper" markets are dog crap

It doesn't matter who's the tail or the dog-

something stinks!

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:41pm

Problem with BTFD

running out of fiat cash--

need a good rally to sell some and buy back on pullback.

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:48pm


I just spent my fiat cash on gasoline. We have 2 feet of snow predicted for tomorrow. I replenished my "Emergency Supply" by getting 75 gallons this morning and I also bought 12 more #10 cans of freeze dried food in that sale someone posted here the other day. That was my silver money for the week.

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:49pm
Al Huxley
Feb 7, 2013 - 12:51pm

The Paper Gold Market's Looking Increasingly Broken

It's really losing it. The waterfall selloffs - not surprising. The trampoline bounce off the low and then moving higher - again, seen it before, usually means a trend reversal. But selloff, trampoline, selloff again, over the course of a half-day trading? WTF - seems like the managers of this market are losing control. Once that happens, I think anything goes in the paper market - volatility means downside price risk, which means the possibility of an 'everything must go' sale on the physical metals. I'm not seeing any increase in premiums at my LCS, so I'm thinking a chance to get some fantastic bargains might be just around the corner, courtesy of these corrupt and broken paper PM markets.

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:51pm

Can you believe this ride?

silver is getting the brunt of this one.

good thing I took my Dramamine 

Al Huxley
Feb 7, 2013 - 12:53pm

re: That's not Nice

Yes, exactly, as per my previous point, starting to look like the EKG of somebody going into cardiac arrest.

Texas Sandman
Feb 7, 2013 - 12:54pm

Tremendous volatility from the cartel this morning...

About time for the CME to use it as an excuse to jack up the margins, right?!

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:55pm

Things Begining To Move

The only time stocks have been this 'euphoric' was right before the collapse in 2000 and right before the collapse in 2008. Someone made an enormous $11.25 million bet yesterday, that the VIX will explode higher very soon. A spike up in the VIX usually portends great weakness in the stock market or an outright crash.

Someone else, made a big bet against the financials ETF (ticker symbol XLF) yesterday. That someone bought 100,000 put options on the ETF. Rarely do traders ever trade more than 500 contracts. Do these bets show a "tell" on what the market is going to do? I think someone has an inside track on that info. as can be seen by this action.

Louise Yamada, that consummate chartist - bar none, has her latest take on gold & silver (complete with charts) up on the KWN site. She sees a resolution of current consolidation by the end of Q1/2013.

Also, Kevin Wides out of Switzerland has an article on KWN about silver (with a chart) in which he predicts an ultimate minimum silver price of $200.00/oz with a short term break above $38.50 to the $40.00 zone.

 End of Q1 is coming closer with the passing of each day - won't be long now. So BTFD!

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:56pm

@ Dr. Jerome

Commissioner's Email addresses

To: GGensler[at]cftc[dot]gov ( ), somalia[at]cftc[dot]gov ( ), MDunn[at]cftc[dot]gov ( ), JSommers[at]cftc[dot]gov ( ), BChilton[at]cftc[dot]gov ( )

Try these!

Feb 7, 2013 - 12:59pm


A thousand hat tips! Well, at least one...

Al Huxley
Feb 7, 2013 - 1:00pm

re: Large Puts on Vix

Too obvious. I'd bet it means further upside in the S&P/DOW (after a little shakeout to sucker the bears in again). As long as real rates are negative and the Fed's monetizing the debt, the market will get bid higher, regardless of fundamentals (IMO).

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:01pm

These stocks are "High" flyers

Symbol Time&Price Chg&% Chg Volume More Info  
CBIS 12:30pm EST 0.0835 Up 0.0085 Up 11.33% 8,351,388 Chart, News, Stats, Board
GRNH 12:28pm EST 0.1170 Up 0.0104 Up 9.76% 3,313,867 Chart, News, Stats, Board
HEMP 12:30PM 0.0895 Up 0.0125 Up 16.23% 17,614,753 Chart, News, Stats, Board
MJNA 12:30pm EST 0.3440 Up 0.0710 Up 26.01% 16,309,162 Chart, News, Stats, Board
PHOT 12:30pm EST 0.0778 Up 0.0033 Up 4.43% 14,923,429 Chart, News, Stats

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:01pm

I just go back and noticed 25,000 contracts dumped

at 9:15! Just your normal trader maximizing profit. duhh

It shoots back up and now they are playing the Chinese water board treatment..

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:05pm

Volatility ???

From end of previous thread;

If I remember right, which admittedly is questionable, a few years? ago we were warned of hundreds of dollars daily up and down moves for gold and similar changes with silver. We're not seeing anything like that yet so save some of your angst for when things really get lively and don't use up all of your stress hormones before they're neededwink

Most of my powder by now is wet; looking around the house for things to sell; wish I had a few kids, hey, the neighbors got some, think they'd miss 'em?

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:05pm

Dr. Jerome, Letters as opposed to email…

…reply from the previous thread.

My brother used to work as a news camera man for a local television station.

This was way before the internet so take it with a few grains of salt, but he said that whenever the station would get telephone calls complaining or, more rarely, complementing them on a story or what have you, they pretty much gave it little to no credence unless they received hundreds of calls in a short time, but whenever they received any letter in the mail, they took each letter to represent the views of 1000 viewers, since it took so much more of an investment in time to create one and mail it.

I would think this day & age, with emails flying left and right at the drop of a pin, such letters would carry even more weight than they used to.

I've always recommended sending letters when voicing your opinion on something you believe is important. It's just too easy to ignore email.

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:16pm

email vs letter


I just sent the email. If I don't get a genuine response (though I know what it will be), then I'll send a real letter next. Perhaps I should've linked some porn in that email to get their attention? Works with the SEC, as I understand it.

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:17pm


sinclair warned us about volatility long ago--I thought, though we would see it both ways-big runs up and down-for now, mostly sudden big waterfalls and slow recoveries.

we need to see the run up we saw in silver early 2011

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:18pm
Feb 7, 2013 - 1:19pm

Painting the wedge

Is this an attempt to intervene at a critical point in a wedge formation?

Feb 7, 2013 - 1:20pm

robert rubin quote (close to it)

from 1987 when he was at GS--he with fed and treasury was buying spx futures to reverse the big decline-afterwards he said he was about to throw in the towel and the last injection turned the market around.

its all about market manipulation with the banks

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