Ready for The Big Game

Fri, Feb 1, 2013 - 9:41am

Time to take a short break and enjoy some R&R but, first, a few things to ponder over the weekend.

First, today's BLSBS was terrible, regardless of the SPIN and MOPE. Now at 7.9%, the unemployment rate has to fall 18% to get to The Bernank's target of 6.5%. Good luck with that, Benny. Even the buffons who cling to the belief that somehow QE is about economic growth are going to have to admit soon that QE is here to stay...and then buy precious metal as their only protection against fiat debasement.

Speaking of fiat debasement, the situation in The Pig is getting rather tenuous. The Bernank had better send out a Goon or two to talk it up soon or it risks failing at 79 and then 78. IF/WHEN this happens, look out below for a retest of the all-important 73 level. You can plainly see it here on this daily chart. Open your mind and you'll see a year-long, head-and-shoulder top. Therefore, a breakdown here would indeed be a big deal.

But the main point I want to leave you with today are the numbers of those standing for delivery of the Feb13 gld contract. First some context:

Dec12: 4623 standing...that's 462,300 ounces or 14.4 metric tonnes

Oct12: 5178 standing or 16.1 mts

Aug12: 5807 standing or 18.1 mts

June12: 9171 standing or 28.5 mts

As you can see, the June12 was a bit of an outlier at 28.5 while the previous three delivery months, including December which is typically the largest of the year, all were around 16 metric tonnes.

OK, standing for delivery of the Feb13...drumroll please...13,910 contracts or 43.3 mts!

As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot". Three times the amount that stood for delivery in December!

I guess now we know why the GLD has been drained of almost 22 mts YTD, now don't we?!

Again, this is just one data point and it could be an aberration. I guess we'll see. But, taken in concert with all of the other anecdotal evidence of precious metal shortage...Well, it certainly raises an eyebrow.

Here's what Harvey had to say last night:

"Today we had first day notice and what a surprise. We had a massive 1,391,000 million oz of gold stand or 43.26 tonnes of gold. I have been following the gold and silver comex data from the mid 1970's and I have never seen anything like this before. You will recall that this past December we had only 10 tonnes of gold delivered upon. Generally December is the biggest delivery month of the year. The comex is not a physical market. If one needs physical they generally head over to London at the LBMA and purchase the metal over there. The high amounts standing may mean that our gentlemen from Eastern persuasion are having difficulty finding metal and thus they are heading over to our neck of the woods to obtain this very valuable commodity.

 The total number of contracts standing for gold is a whopping 13,910 contracts or 1,310,900 oz of gold which translates to 43.26 tonnes of gold I am sure that Blythe will be one busy girl these next few weeks as she tries to entice some longs standing to accept paper instead of metal."

And Denver Dave had some comments, too.

"Just a little truth tidbit if you're worried about the latest sell-off in the price of gold/silver. There's a lot of misinformation, disinformation and absurd ideas about what's going in the market. The truth is that the eastern hemisphere countries are vacuuming up physical gold and silver that they are having delivered domestically as quickly as the London/New York dealers are printing paper gold and silver contracts. You can see this in any given 24 hour trading period, where the price of the metals rises overnight until Hong Kong closes and London opens. Then the price sells off as the London/NYC bullion banks print up more paper contracts and dump them on the market.

In fact, per today's Comex open interest report, currently there are about 13,900 contracts February open and potentially standing for delivery. This represents 63% of the gold listed as available for delivery on the Comex. This is an extraordinarily high amount in relation to the historical context at this point in any given delivery month cycle (first notice day). We'll see how this unfolds, but I doubt Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and CNBC are reporting this information."

Maybe next week, I'll be able to track down Andy and get his opinion on the matter. Until then, just place this bit of info in your hope chest and rest well over the weekend.

Speaking of the weekend, I'm off with The Boys to watch the Super Bowl. Don't worry, though, there will still be lots of fresh content for you to savor here at TFMR. Later today, I'll be releasing a 70-minute podcast that I recorded with The Jackass yesterday. I know that that's probably too long for most folks but there are a lot of Golden Jackass fans out there that can't get enough. This ought to satisfy them for a while. I'll also have a thought-provoking regular thread released tomorrow so please be sure to check back over the weekend.

That's all for now. Wish me luck and go Niners! (Not that I care either way but I'm definitely laying the 3.5)


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


silver bullett
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:42am

1 st

1 st

TreeTop Dweller
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:45am

Spike this A.M.

Ron Jeremy must be back on his normal medication!

Feb 1, 2013 - 9:46am

Lazy bastards

So far the algos are just running the exact same algo from Wednesday .... Let's see if it continues

Feb 1, 2013 - 9:51am

Back in the top 5


This silver ride has gotten me dizzy...and left me with no more fiat to BTFD...until my next payday anyway (now there's an odd bit of alliteration for you!)...

Stack like your life depends on it because...IT DOES!!!

Feb 1, 2013 - 9:52am

Silver chart

I am getting dizzy watching this Silver chart. I better set my assault weapon down before I hurt myself.

Feb 1, 2013 - 9:56am

Top Ten!

It's been awhile!

Thank you Turd for your consistent hard work. I don't ask for perfection, I only want your honest and best analysis, and I believe you give that to us!


Feb 1, 2013 - 9:56am

thanks TF!

Thanks TF for all your comments.

Compared to 5 years ago, it's been a rocky 18 months in terms of gold & silver NY spot price.

But, there's no doubt.

The big guns are out and they're going to start standing for delivery unless something massive changes.

Feb 1, 2013 - 9:58am

Vitriol - Moved from the last thread

"Cynicus: "I find the responses to curly's comments disappointing. I can't understand the vitriol. For 2 years silver has disappointed" Agreed about the vitriol. Quite un-called for."
Reasons for vitriol. Maybe valid, maybe not. I and others have noticed over the past year of so a growing cadre of people who ONLY show up here on days where there is a disappointing correction. These people share characteristics: 1) Only post on days when the action in the metals disappoints. 2) Post negative opinions in regards metals as an investment, specifically, everybody should give up on them. 3) Have either only been a member of TFMR for a short time, or have only posted a few times, each time the same as 1) and 2) above. Like I said in my previous post, if it has webbed feet, a bill, swims in water and quacks, must be a troll. Most everybody has down days when the thought of throwing in the towel nags them, I know I have, but I don't ever see those people getting vitriol directed their way, and for good reason - they don't fit the trollish profile. IMHO, "Curley" was here to spread dis-info and try to discourage people from investing in sound money. I doubt seriously he influenced any of the regulars one iota, but there are thousands of people who come here and read casually but never post, and I've no doubt his short two-sentence post had some effect on people whose interest in owning metals is casual. It's entirely possible somebody whose curiosity has been piqued came here for the first time, read "Curly's" post and then decided, "the hell with it!", and that, I believe, was his goal all along. For me, my opinion was proved by the simple fact that, after all the comments, "Curly" never responded. Most people would respond after reading some of the replies (even Turd jumped on the bandwagon), but not "Curly", why? Probably because he was busy heading over to other similar sites to post more negative messages and never came back here. Oh yeah, and "Fifth"!
The Green Manalishi
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:01am

And........It's Gone

And........It's Gone

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:03am

I want my gold

Miles says he wants his gold...

I want my gold. I said.
Exbroker Mudsharkbytes
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:03am

Throwing in the towel

Been buying Silver since it was 2.50(1999). I have never ever thought of throwing in the towel.

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:06am

How do you like this crap??

like being in china with no paper..

20000 contracts to the downside in 10 min.s

Silver Alert
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:06am

Turd @ Superbowl

Take care:


As I recall it seems that in the past, no matter how much is standing for delivery at first notice, very little actually gets taken out.

Urban Roman
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:07am

Interesting article

This is self-sufficiency for you: 

For 40 Years, This Russian Family Was Cut Off From All Human Contact, Unaware of World War II

In 1978, Soviet geologists prospecting in the wilds of Siberia discovered a family of six, lost in the taiga



Feb 1, 2013 - 10:08am

Obama indictment

PDF of charges...

Video of a very happy LaRouche smiling about it...

BREAKING !Federal Court Indicts President Obama Will not see end of his second term!

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:12am

From Devils Tower to Weaver's Needle in AZ

These chart patters are becoming very interesting--most unnatural! I much appreciated Pining's comparison of the chart pattern to Devils' tower in WY. and today we have a similar formation.

Most unnatural indeed. As if something volcanic is trying to break out of the normal landscape.

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:12am

Well that was fun...

as long as it lasted...

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:12am
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:16am

Bill the Man

"Credit markets are running out of energy and time. The countdown begins when investable assets pose too much risk for too little return. The lenders desert the credit markets for other alternatives such as cash or real assets" [gold].

- William H Gross

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:16am

Mrs. Ferguson has hacked the site!

Turd has left the building and I do not know who is more excited....the door almost hit him in the arse....

XOXO My Turd....Mrs. Ferguson

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:20am

Mrs. Ferguson has hacked the site!

I will do my best to watch my language.smiley

Strongsidejedi Doctor J
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:20am

Iao Needle - where's the Hawaii crowd?

Iao Needle... Yeaoowwww Needle...

Need the Hawaii crowd on...they're prolly still asleep! Its like 4 AM there.

Mr. Fix
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:22am

Welcome Mrs. Ferguson.

 We'd love to have you as a regular contributor here, we would love to know the inside scoop on our fearless leader.wink

And we love him too.

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:26am

Just Sharing

Here is a cool thing that I found on an 1896 Morgan Silver Dollar from my stack - when I examined this one with a magnifying glass, I found a raised line that was apparently caused by a crack in the die.

(Yes, I posted a pic of this one a while back, but in case you missed it here it is again for your viewing pleasure.)



Feb 1, 2013 - 10:33am

this is what a market on fumes looks like

Check out the 30 min tick. It turned down the same time the miners did. 

Mr. Fix
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:34am

I'm pondering........

(Ponder, ponder, ponder.)wink

Not a very long rally at all. 

 The only fundamental that matters anymore,

is that the Evil Empire will never allow gold and silver to rise in price,

until it is not possible for them to control it anymore. 

Some people with extraordinarily deep pockets are standing for 43 tons worth of gold this month.

 There is currently an ongoing attempt to bankrupt the COMEX.

 Maybe they will have some success by the end of the month, in the meantime, it will be business as usual.

Mr. Fix
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:38am

By the way,


Looking forward to it!devil

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:40am

Dear Mrs. Ferguson...

...while you're here...can I get any free samples, or at least coupons, for some frozen yogurt?wink

ps-Please try to reach TF and tell him to "take the points".

Feb 1, 2013 - 10:40am

Mr. Fix & Jackass

yesterday's access-denied link on the right side of the site was such an evil tease!


Feb 1, 2013 - 10:41am

the dow and S&p.s have been going straight up for how long?

This has to end badly!

Every day we see companies missing estimated, laying off people constantly,,

however we keep getting better statistics from the Propaganda clowns and the market buys it?? or is it really the Bernank buying it???

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