Ready for The Big Game

197
Fri, Feb 1, 2013 - 9:41am

Time to take a short break and enjoy some R&R but, first, a few things to ponder over the weekend.

First, today's BLSBS was terrible, regardless of the SPIN and MOPE. Now at 7.9%, the unemployment rate has to fall 18% to get to The Bernank's target of 6.5%. Good luck with that, Benny. Even the buffons who cling to the belief that somehow QE is about economic growth are going to have to admit soon that QE is here to stay...and then buy precious metal as their only protection against fiat debasement.

Speaking of fiat debasement, the situation in The Pig is getting rather tenuous. The Bernank had better send out a Goon or two to talk it up soon or it risks failing at 79 and then 78. IF/WHEN this happens, look out below for a retest of the all-important 73 level. You can plainly see it here on this daily chart. Open your mind and you'll see a year-long, head-and-shoulder top. Therefore, a breakdown here would indeed be a big deal.

But the main point I want to leave you with today are the numbers of those standing for delivery of the Feb13 gld contract. First some context:

Dec12: 4623 standing...that's 462,300 ounces or 14.4 metric tonnes

Oct12: 5178 standing or 16.1 mts

Aug12: 5807 standing or 18.1 mts

June12: 9171 standing or 28.5 mts

As you can see, the June12 was a bit of an outlier at 28.5 while the previous three delivery months, including December which is typically the largest of the year, all were around 16 metric tonnes.

OK, standing for delivery of the Feb13...drumroll please...13,910 contracts or 43.3 mts!

As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot". Three times the amount that stood for delivery in December!

I guess now we know why the GLD has been drained of almost 22 mts YTD, now don't we?!

Again, this is just one data point and it could be an aberration. I guess we'll see. But, taken in concert with all of the other anecdotal evidence of precious metal shortage...Well, it certainly raises an eyebrow.

Here's what Harvey had to say last night:

"Today we had first day notice and what a surprise. We had a massive 1,391,000 million oz of gold stand or 43.26 tonnes of gold. I have been following the gold and silver comex data from the mid 1970's and I have never seen anything like this before. You will recall that this past December we had only 10 tonnes of gold delivered upon. Generally December is the biggest delivery month of the year. The comex is not a physical market. If one needs physical they generally head over to London at the LBMA and purchase the metal over there. The high amounts standing may mean that our gentlemen from Eastern persuasion are having difficulty finding metal and thus they are heading over to our neck of the woods to obtain this very valuable commodity.

The total number of contracts standing for gold is a whopping 13,910 contracts or 1,310,900 oz of gold which translates to 43.26 tonnes of gold I am sure that Blythe will be one busy girl these next few weeks as she tries to entice some longs standing to accept paper instead of metal."

And Denver Dave had some comments, too.

"Just a little truth tidbit if you're worried about the latest sell-off in the price of gold/silver. There's a lot of misinformation, disinformation and absurd ideas about what's going in the market. The truth is that the eastern hemisphere countries are vacuuming up physical gold and silver that they are having delivered domestically as quickly as the London/New York dealers are printing paper gold and silver contracts. You can see this in any given 24 hour trading period, where the price of the metals rises overnight until Hong Kong closes and London opens. Then the price sells off as the London/NYC bullion banks print up more paper contracts and dump them on the market.

In fact, per today's Comex open interest report, currently there are about 13,900 contracts February open and potentially standing for delivery. This represents 63% of the gold listed as available for delivery on the Comex. This is an extraordinarily high amount in relation to the historical context at this point in any given delivery month cycle (first notice day). We'll see how this unfolds, but I doubt Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and CNBC are reporting this information."

Maybe next week, I'll be able to track down Andy and get his opinion on the matter. Until then, just place this bit of info in your hope chest and rest well over the weekend.

Speaking of the weekend, I'm off with The Boys to watch the Super Bowl. Don't worry, though, there will still be lots of fresh content for you to savor here at TFMR. Later today, I'll be releasing a 70-minute podcast that I recorded with The Jackass yesterday. I know that that's probably too long for most folks but there are a lot of Golden Jackass fans out there that can't get enough. This ought to satisfy them for a while. I'll also have a thought-provoking regular thread released tomorrow so please be sure to check back over the weekend.

That's all for now. Wish me luck and go Niners! (Not that I care either way but I'm definitely laying the 3.5)

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  197 Comments

silver bullett
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:42am

1 st

1 st

Thebullionblog.com
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:43am

WAKE UP!!!

"There are none so hopelessely inslaved as those who falsly believe they are free. I have freed one thousand slaves but I could have freed one thousand more if they only had known they were slaves! Gold has been the money of Kings for over 5000 years, Silver the money of gentlemen, Barter the money of peasants and Debt has always been the money of slaves".

TreeTop Dweller
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:45am

Spike this A.M.

Ron Jeremy must be back on his normal medication!

billwilson
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:46am

Lazy bastards

So far the algos are just running the exact same algo from Wednesday .... Let's see if it continues

philly
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:51am

Back in the top 5

4th!!

This silver ride has gotten me dizzy...and left me with no more fiat to BTFD...until my next payday anyway (now there's an odd bit of alliteration for you!)...

Stack like your life depends on it because...IT DOES!!!

Exbroker
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:52am

Silver chart

I am getting dizzy watching this Silver chart. I better set my assault weapon down before I hurt myself.

Hrunner
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:56am

Top Ten!

It's been awhile!

Thank you Turd for your consistent hard work. I don't ask for perfection, I only want your honest and best analysis, and I believe you give that to us!

H

Strongsidejedi
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:56am

thanks TF!

Thanks TF for all your comments.

Compared to 5 years ago, it's been a rocky 18 months in terms of gold & silver NY spot price.

But, there's no doubt.

The big guns are out and they're going to start standing for delivery unless something massive changes.

Mudsharkbytes
Feb 1, 2013 - 9:58am

Vitriol - Moved from the last thread

"Cynicus: "I find the responses to curly's comments disappointing. I can't understand the vitriol. For 2 years silver has disappointed" Agreed about the vitriol. Quite un-called for."
Reasons for vitriol. Maybe valid, maybe not. I and others have noticed over the past year of so a growing cadre of people who ONLY show up here on days where there is a disappointing correction. These people share characteristics: 1) Only post on days when the action in the metals disappoints. 2) Post negative opinions in regards metals as an investment, specifically, everybody should give up on them. 3) Have either only been a member of TFMR for a short time, or have only posted a few times, each time the same as 1) and 2) above. Like I said in my previous post, if it has webbed feet, a bill, swims in water and quacks, must be a troll. Most everybody has down days when the thought of throwing in the towel nags them, I know I have, but I don't ever see those people getting vitriol directed their way, and for good reason - they don't fit the trollish profile. IMHO, "Curley" was here to spread dis-info and try to discourage people from investing in sound money. I doubt seriously he influenced any of the regulars one iota, but there are thousands of people who come here and read casually but never post, and I've no doubt his short two-sentence post had some effect on people whose interest in owning metals is casual. It's entirely possible somebody whose curiosity has been piqued came here for the first time, read "Curly's" post and then decided, "the hell with it!", and that, I believe, was his goal all along. For me, my opinion was proved by the simple fact that, after all the comments, "Curly" never responded. Most people would respond after reading some of the replies (even Turd jumped on the bandwagon), but not "Curly", why? Probably because he was busy heading over to other similar sites to post more negative messages and never came back here. Oh yeah, and "Fifth"!
The Green Manalishi
Feb 1, 2013 - 10:01am

And........It's Gone

And........It's Gone

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

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Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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