Another Pre-Fedline Post

Wed, Jan 30, 2013 - 11:02am

As we once again await the Fedlines later today, here are some charts for our consideration.

First of all, it's great to see the metals rallying, especially after all the wailing and grinding of teeth over the weekend. On a personal note, it's always somewhat gratifying, too, when "Mr. Wrong 99% of The Time" actually gets one right. I hope that, by following along closely, you've had your stress limited.

What kills me today is the shock and surprise at the GDP numbers. Everyone (myself included) was saying in November and December that Q4 GDP would be down or negative due in large part to Hurricane Sandy. You simply don't slide a storm like that into NJ and NY and not see an economic impact. But, again, all of this was forgotten when The Forces of Darkness picked up the "6.5% inflation target" ball and ran with it back after the last FOMC meeting on 12/12. Whatever. I know it's hard to keep track of all this stuff...which is why I'm always begging you to simply btfd and keep stacking. The day-to-day noise can make you crazy and cause you to doubt yourself. Know that, long-term, physical gold and silver are your only solution and your only protection.

Regarding the Q4 GDP, here's the only news story you need to read and, from the article, the only chart you need to see. (Anyone got any bananas?)

The resultant rallies in the metals have carried gold to near its usual +1% cap and silver has not only breached $31.60, it has also now moved through its 50-day MA near $31.90. Very nice. Very nice, indeed. Now, can we just get a further spark to really get some short-covering going? Something from the Fedlines or the BLSBS? We'll see. For now in gold, keep an eye on significant chart and psychological resistance at/near 1700 as well as the Apr13 50-day near $1691. IF WE CAN GET A POP, the next challenge will be the 100-day MA, near 1720.

Silver is cooking, too, and there is plenty to be excited about. But, first, silver must still pass The Big Test. Can it burst higher, taking out last week's highs, chart resistance and its 100-day MA...all between $32.50 and $32.75? IF IT DOES, we can all begin to get excited. Until then...well, just try not to get too emotional about it.

That's all for now. Look for another thread later today, after the Fedlines.


p.s. I see that quite a few of you bought some of Chris Duane's latest release yesterday. Thank you! It's for a good cause, it's a great investment AND this site makes a small commishkey with each purchase. Their almost to 20,000 ounces sold. Let's see if we can get 'em there. Click the link below and buy a few!


Rather than start a new post, I thought I'd just update this one. Besides, since there wasn't a rigged selloff post-Fedlines, all of the charts are still relevant.

The Bernank said nothing new and mainly just reiterated all that was said back in December. The only new item was a stated recognition that "economic activity had paused in recent months". I wonder how all those who foolishly cling to the belief that QE is related to economic activity will try to spin that one?

Squeaky (Bill Gross) said two interesting things during the CNBS coveage:

  1. That Fed policy has "distorted prices in all asset categories".
  2. That he agrees with The Fed that unemployment targets will not be reached until 2015, at the earliest.

And point #2 is the one that so infuriates me. You see, I watched The Bernank's press conference, post the Fedlines back in December. He clearly stated that the 6.5% unemployment number was only being given for "context" and "transparency" and that, since The Fed doesn't see unemployment dropping to 6.5% until 2015, they're essentially saying the same things as always. BUT, NO!! All the naysayers, boobs and monkeys picked it up and ran as if QE will be ending as soon as this autumn! What a freaking joke!! Again, these types of FACTS often get lost in all the day-to-day angst and stress over price swings. Just keep buying the freaking dip and all will be well.

Just a few other things. On page 3 of this thread I posted some charts of an ugly-looking Pig. It is rolling over badly and looks like it may soon violate critical support near 79. Let's remember to watch this closely over the next few days and weeks.

I also posted a chart of Sylvia Platinum. It is rallying back from another successful hold of 1660 support and looks poised to take another (#8) stab at $1700. I keep watching this because a successful breach of 1700 and rally beyond will, no doubt, add some spillover strength to gold and silver.

The 10-year is declining again today with yields reaching 2.03% right before the Fedlines were released. I received this chart by email earlier today and I liked it a lot. It's a chart of the price of gold divided by the price of the 10-year note. Pretty interesting.

Speaking of interesting charts...Paul Coghlan passed along a video showing how successfully his "forks" had helped position traders for the huge rally this morning. Again, I want to re-emphasize...If you're attempting to trade gold and silver without their assistance, you're crazy. I set this up for you for a reason and too few of you are taking advantage of it. Just look at Andy's numbers in the adbox on the right side of he page. And that's just trading one contract! Please don't waste any more of your hard-earned fiat attempting to out-fox the foxes. Join The Army. Survive and prosper.

And I need to comment on the OI numbers. Even with the impending expiration/FND of the Feb13 contract, the gold OI numbers are astonishing. While gold was rallying $8 yesterday, the total OI declined by over 8000 contracts to 430,712. This is down an amazing 30,000+ in over a week! That level is the second-lowest for 2013, coming in just above the 428,747 seen on 1/4/13, just after the brutal 1/3-1/4 beatdown. With price $40 higher, that's a lot of paper being shifted from weak to strong hands.

Now get a load of this...The CoT survey was at the close yesterday. For the reporting week, gold fell $32 and its OI fell by 30,500 contracts. WOW! But check out silver. For the week, price fell by exactly $1 but the total silver OI rose by 6,000! Talk about fuel for a short squeeze! Needless to say, this week's CoT, once it's finally released on Friday, is going to be interesting. Very interesting, indeed.

OK, that's it for today. As I close, I see that The Monkeys and algos have decided to hit the metals on The Globex anyway, regardless of the Fedlines. Gold has dropped over $5 while I've typed! Whatever. Reports have it that today was London's strongest physical demand day yet for 2013. Realization that QE really is to infinity will only serve to drive demand even higher. Once again, BTFD!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Stack'em High
Jan 30, 2013 - 11:06am


Thurd, thurd, thurd.

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:06am

3rd!!!broken link, Turd!


broken link, Turd!

oh i see what happened. you accidentally put an extra "https://"

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:06am
Jan 30, 2013 - 11:07am

Was going to claim 4th

but then decided not to, then changed my mind and did anyway.

Now for the article.

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:07am


Let's see some action in the miners now

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:08am

One is yellow, one silver, one black, one green, two blue.

What does the Jekyll Island meeting in 1913 have in common with the meeting in Geneva circa 1892?

What do Big Ag and H2O have in common?

Some of the conversations about Daily Bell and oil got me to thinking, or rethinking what influences our, uh, thinking. So I just wrote a bit and it all comes out like I've figured before... nothing new under the sun. Whether we believe any particular theory, current meme or a popular myth that is expressed or promoted by any community of geologists, climatologists, molecular scientists, economic or political experts promote about gold, oil, food, water or any other substance that we value or need on this earth… we are still subjected to paying whatever the controllers of those natural resources are charging. And we pay whatever “they” deem for us to pay, whether we believe in the premise of the availability or not.

Whether we believe that weather cycles and solar flares cause global warming or if we buy into the man-caused effects, we will pay a carbon tax if (when) they force it upon us. If we think that current prices for silver and gold are manipulated down and priced far below where they should be with current fundamentals measured against trust in governments and fiat currency worthlessness, we will pay whatever “they” require us to pay if we live within the “system” and if want to trade our fiat for those items we have more faith in than fiat.

Whether we believe that food is being developed by corrupt, heartless crony capitalists that are dangerously altered with GMO’s, or wheat has been genetically altered to become a health hazard, or chemical additives are being added that accumulate in our bodies over time to become a time bomb… we can consume those items or not, based on our own knowledge.

And for all of these things we will pay in an approved currency that we earn or are given by co-conspirators, the Money Masters and cronies that benefit by creating cheap, poisonous foods.

We, as a society, will abide by the laws that enable the crooks, disable us and suppress our freedoms. That is, unless we can get along without any particular product or currency that is under the control of the commodity and currency cartels with the help of their political and judicial puppets. Stray from the “mainstream” lines that form to ignorantly support the system and be prepared to be in a distinct minority. You will be greatly outnumbered.

“Now, get seven million five hundred thousand votes to declare that two and two make five, that the straight line is the longest road, that the whole is less than its part; get it declared by eight millions, by ten millions, by a hundred millions of votes, you will not have advanced a step. Well, then, now you are going to be surprised. There are axioms in probity, in honesty, in justice, as there are axioms in geometry; and the truths of morality are no more at the mercy of a vote than are the truths of algebra. The notion of good and evil cannot be resolved by universal suffrage. It is not given to a ballot to make the false become the true and the unjust the just. The human conscience cannot be put to the vote.” — Victor Hugo

But we still have choices. It’s not too late. We can get all fired up. distracted and disillusioned over the reds or blues in Washington, we can go all patriotic and support their “just causes” for killing, we can invest financially and emotionally in the theatre and not worry about any guilt associated with our party or candidate when they play their part of the Collective to start wars, create false flags and commit atrocities with the help of our vote.

We can eat trans-fats until the GMO fed, antibiotic-hormone-steroid-laced cows come home. We drink all the fluoride our cities and manufacturers give us. We can eat all the canned vegetables containing plastics and other harmful, unnatural ingredients until our bellies are so full and bloated that we are temporarily satisfied. We can save all of our Dollars in a Money Market account or with a traditional equities broker. Free will is a God-given blessing. But there are consequences to each of our choices.

We have more information on everything under the sun today. More than we could possibly take in, much less comprehend. We also have disinformation everywhere and we have truth, wisdom and integrity as well as lies, ignorance and wicked motives on all of these issues.

All of earth’s resources that are necessary to sustain life, health, energy and prosperity have been co-opted, cornered and controlled. Everything under the sun is in various stages of complete control. Water, air, food are necessary to life itself. In this system of things we also need currency and energy to survive. Oil is necessary and available, no matter how we parse it with cost, supply and alternatives. Gold and silver will not give us immunity from the effects of this system, but they sure can make it easier to survive and hold on to what we’ve earned.

For now, we have choices. All choices will require a bit of research, prioritization and discernment at every step. Some choices will require manual labor, if we are not wealthy enough to hire others to do everything for us. Some of our choices will require financial or political risk and all choices require truth seeking, open minds, industriousness and ingenuity. Without faith and integrity, we have no chance.

Proverbs 6:16,17 then 22:3 pretty much sums it up the for us.

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:10am

Just wanted to say

Turd, You're one of my must reads every day. Thanks for all you do.

Anyway, I think Silver needs to pop above 34.50 and Gold $1,800 before we can get excited. I think you would see short-covering in earnest above those levels as well as strong inflows. Until then, I would wait if you have cash sitting around. It goes without saying that any serious decline like Silver $25 or Gold $1500 are immediate buys

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:12am


I saw that placeholder dot. Not fair.... but it's a nice and fitting pic you came back and filled in after capturing the top slot.

Hey, it's all good. Well done sir :)

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:14am

test top 10

testing avatar

Jan 30, 2013 - 11:16am

economy and kicking can

the minus .1 gdp is rather significant. The Obama forecasts are based on 4% growth (so was Romneys recovery) .

w/o the growth we do not get employment up, thus lower tax rev, thus higher welfare expenditures, and so it goes. Down the toilet.

and rather than working on what should be the number one problem-a US Bankruptcy avoidance, we get gun control, crowd control, immigration, water feature , light bulbs, food nazi controls etc

I think , really think most of these folks in DC are light weights and empty suits ( I know a few). There are a few so called leaders who are driving us off the cliff in many ways.

The rest are lemmings. so are we if we put up with this shit, but we are outnumbered by those that like whats happening, without really understanding the big picture, which gets clearer and clearer each day,

was 1697 the high a few weeks ago?

Before the dump job?

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