Items From The Mailbag

332
Tue, Jan 29, 2013 - 12:07pm

Today seems like a good day to get caught up on a few things.

Whew! Option expiration for the Feb13 gold contract is finally behind us and prices have begun to recover. I bet ya just can't wait for Monday, Feb 25 when the Mar13 silver options expire. Mark your calendars!

Until then, we should see a general rally. The next three weeks will likely be positive as the metals regain the ground lost late last week, and then some. ("Is that the footlong? And then some!")

For now, let's just get our feet under us and recover. The CoT structure has undoubtedly become considerably more bullish after last week and the metals are primed for a sizeable short squeeze if we can just get a spark. Might that spark come the Fedlines tomorrow ( https://www.bkassetmanagement.com/us-outlook/fomc-preview-why-this-months-meeting-important_3905/) or perhaps the BLSBS on Friday? Hard to say, of course. We'll see.

But I like the possibility of a decent jump in price here. Consider the OI numbers. On Thursday and Friday of last week, while price was falling over $30, the total OI in gold rose by over 2000 contracts and you have to take into consideration that gold OI should have been falling rapidly due to the falling price and expiring Feb13 contract. Instead, it rose. This tells me that a considerable amount of new shorts were added and those shorts are quite vulnerable because they don't have a lot of wiggle room on any rally.

And then there's silver. While price was falling $1.24 over the Thu-Fri trading days, the total OI rose by over 5,400 contracts. Clearly a significant rise in short interest. Additionally, total OI in silver is all the way back up to 149,593. This is the highest level since 11/27/12 and just 6,000 below the high of all 2012. Keep in mind, too, that on 11/27/12 price closed at 34.08. Just as there were some vulnerable longs at $34, there are now some vulnerable shorts at $31.

So, let's see if we can begin to recover here. Gold needs to reclaim $1670 and silver $31.60 before we can get excited so watch those levels closely.

And just a few, other random charts for you to consider. First, here's platinum. Though it was sharply lower yesterday, support near $1660 held again so the party definitely isn't over. Will attempt #8 at surpassing $1700 finally get it done?

Crude keeps inching ever higher. If I was sitting on a profit, though, I'd sure be getting an itchy trigger finger to ring the register. $98-100 has to be pretty significant resistance.

And check out these two losers...The Pig and the 10-yr note. Neither are at a critical moment...yet...but both are moving in that direction. In particular, the 10-year. Demand hasn't waned enough yet that it requires a boost in QE∞ but that day is coming. Maybe by this summer?

OK, finally...to the mailbag. There was a lot of talk around here earlier this month regarding the manufacture and sale of TFMR silver rounds. I am looking into this but, logistically, it's much more difficult to pull off than you might imagine. I'll keep you posted.

Many folks are wondering when The Jackass might make a return appearance on a podcast. We are tentatively set for one later this week. If it happens, I will post it in its usual timeslot of late Friday.

Someone sent me an email which included some very interesting info on the "HSBC acquiring silver" story from last week. It also included this helpful chart.

Here is the news release re. HSBC from KGHM: https://www.kghm.pl/index.dhtml?module=articles&id=4962
At an exchange rate of 3.1 Polish Zloties per USD, the Jan 21, 2013 contract was for ~ USD 539 M
Using a constant exchange rate of 3.1 PLN/USD, contracts between KGHM and HSBC over the past 12 months total USD 1.18 B
Assuming $32/oz silver for the last 12 months, the Jan 21, 2013 contract with HSBC was for ~ 16.9 million oz. of silver and the prior 12 months of sales to HSBC is ~ 36.8 million oz. of silver
In 2011, KGHM produced approximately 41 million oz. of silver - HSBC is purchasing almost all of their silver production.
According to their presentation, KGHM is the world's largest silver producer:

Speaking of nice charts, here's one that shows the varying inventory of the SLV:

And this is an interesting story. The Turdite who alerted me to it has his theory as to why this is important and I think he is correct. However, I'll let you read it and draw your own conclusions. https://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-rbi-may-let-banks-buy-back-gold-in-a-bid-to-curb-demand-317032

Chris Duane has a new medallion out for purchase. They've already sold over 7,000 of them! If you're interested in buying some, please use this link: https://www.silverbulletsilvershield.com/freedom-girl-one-ounce-medallio...

Finally...and somewhat reluctantly...I'm going to post this link to a segment from Dr. Janda's show last weekend. After a few minutes, the guest turns his attention to an anti-Obama diatribe. Take it for what it's worth and shut it off if you need to. However, the first five minutes or so definitely deserve your attention. Dr. Dave clearly feels this guy is legitimate, so, listen closely. https://www.davejanda.com/audio/JimGarrow012713.mp3

OK, that's it for today. Have a great one!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  332 Comments

A1Topgun
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:25pm

Silver is BAD for you !!!

Well it has started. The goober mint's public service advertisement to condition the sheep that silver is bad for you.(at 25 seconds) Don't let your baby touch it! Why? They do not say. Never mind the antibacterial qualities, just know it's BAD for you to TOUCH it.

Video unavailable

A search of "babies touch silver" does not bring up any negative hits.

So the masses can just watch the MSM commercials on the boob tube and know how bad it is to even touch that evil relic, PM.

Bollocks
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:25pm

ASE record

If they started selling again yesterday (did they?) then they've sold nearly a million in a day.

...and there's still 2 days to go this month.

Could end up being a major record .

Bill of Rights
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:29pm

RCM Rationing 2013 Silver Maple Leaf Bullion Coins

https://news.coinupdate.com/rcm-rationing-silver-maple-leaf-bullion-coins-1825/

Amidst a surge in demand, the Royal Canadian Mint has started rationing 2013 Silver Maple Leaf bullion coins at the primary distributor level. This follows the news earlier this month that the United States Mint had temporarily sold out of their 2013-dated silver bullion coins after receiving orders for more than 6 million coins and would begin rationing supplies as soon as sales resume.

Less information is known about the silver bullion coin situation in Canada, as the RCM does not publicly report sales levels outside of their required financial filings. A representative for the Mint did confirm that coins are currently being allocated.

Alex Reeves, Senior Manager of Communications at the Royal Canadian Mint provided the following statement:

AlexCojones
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:30pm

ASE Resumption on Turd's Birthday?

Wasn't January 28th when the mint resumed ASE production? And wasn't that also TFs birthdate? Who knew the yellow-hatted one had so much leverage.

Speaking of an anti-Obama rant. Maybe the Klinkster posted this already.

The Last American President...

ancientmoney
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:31pm
Anonymous
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:31pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Anonymous
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:32pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Jan 29, 2013 - 12:35pm

@Bollocks

Bollocks wrote: "Now then, Bollocks isn't just a robot, he's an astronaut robot who likes to meet up with his space-alien buddies (that's friends who are aliens from space) on other planets, to enjoy tea and biscuits ... ."

Ha!

Jan 29, 2013 - 12:37pm
Istack
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:37pm

Nickels

Stacking nickels is kinda fun. I got $10 dollars worth yeasterday. That's 200 nickels. An easy way to help you feel like your stack is getting bigger. I was inspired by all the nickel chatter lately. I now own just over 112 pounds of nickels. Keep stacking while you can.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:34pm
by tonym9, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:21pm
by NW VIEW, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:09pm
by ancientmoney, Jan 24, 2020 - 4:41pm
by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:51pm
by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:39pm
randomness