Items From The Mailbag

332
Tue, Jan 29, 2013 - 12:07pm

Today seems like a good day to get caught up on a few things.

Whew! Option expiration for the Feb13 gold contract is finally behind us and prices have begun to recover. I bet ya just can't wait for Monday, Feb 25 when the Mar13 silver options expire. Mark your calendars!

Until then, we should see a general rally. The next three weeks will likely be positive as the metals regain the ground lost late last week, and then some. ("Is that the footlong? And then some!")

For now, let's just get our feet under us and recover. The CoT structure has undoubtedly become considerably more bullish after last week and the metals are primed for a sizeable short squeeze if we can just get a spark. Might that spark come the Fedlines tomorrow ( https://www.bkassetmanagement.com/us-outlook/fomc-preview-why-this-months-meeting-important_3905/) or perhaps the BLSBS on Friday? Hard to say, of course. We'll see.

But I like the possibility of a decent jump in price here. Consider the OI numbers. On Thursday and Friday of last week, while price was falling over $30, the total OI in gold rose by over 2000 contracts and you have to take into consideration that gold OI should have been falling rapidly due to the falling price and expiring Feb13 contract. Instead, it rose. This tells me that a considerable amount of new shorts were added and those shorts are quite vulnerable because they don't have a lot of wiggle room on any rally.

And then there's silver. While price was falling $1.24 over the Thu-Fri trading days, the total OI rose by over 5,400 contracts. Clearly a significant rise in short interest. Additionally, total OI in silver is all the way back up to 149,593. This is the highest level since 11/27/12 and just 6,000 below the high of all 2012. Keep in mind, too, that on 11/27/12 price closed at 34.08. Just as there were some vulnerable longs at $34, there are now some vulnerable shorts at $31.

So, let's see if we can begin to recover here. Gold needs to reclaim $1670 and silver $31.60 before we can get excited so watch those levels closely.

And just a few, other random charts for you to consider. First, here's platinum. Though it was sharply lower yesterday, support near $1660 held again so the party definitely isn't over. Will attempt #8 at surpassing $1700 finally get it done?

Crude keeps inching ever higher. If I was sitting on a profit, though, I'd sure be getting an itchy trigger finger to ring the register. $98-100 has to be pretty significant resistance.

And check out these two losers...The Pig and the 10-yr note. Neither are at a critical moment...yet...but both are moving in that direction. In particular, the 10-year. Demand hasn't waned enough yet that it requires a boost in QE∞ but that day is coming. Maybe by this summer?

OK, finally...to the mailbag. There was a lot of talk around here earlier this month regarding the manufacture and sale of TFMR silver rounds. I am looking into this but, logistically, it's much more difficult to pull off than you might imagine. I'll keep you posted.

Many folks are wondering when The Jackass might make a return appearance on a podcast. We are tentatively set for one later this week. If it happens, I will post it in its usual timeslot of late Friday.

Someone sent me an email which included some very interesting info on the "HSBC acquiring silver" story from last week. It also included this helpful chart.

Here is the news release re. HSBC from KGHM: https://www.kghm.pl/index.dhtml?module=articles&id=4962
At an exchange rate of 3.1 Polish Zloties per USD, the Jan 21, 2013 contract was for ~ USD 539 M
Using a constant exchange rate of 3.1 PLN/USD, contracts between KGHM and HSBC over the past 12 months total USD 1.18 B
Assuming $32/oz silver for the last 12 months, the Jan 21, 2013 contract with HSBC was for ~ 16.9 million oz. of silver and the prior 12 months of sales to HSBC is ~ 36.8 million oz. of silver
In 2011, KGHM produced approximately 41 million oz. of silver - HSBC is purchasing almost all of their silver production.
According to their presentation, KGHM is the world's largest silver producer:

Speaking of nice charts, here's one that shows the varying inventory of the SLV:

And this is an interesting story. The Turdite who alerted me to it has his theory as to why this is important and I think he is correct. However, I'll let you read it and draw your own conclusions. https://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-rbi-may-let-banks-buy-back-gold-in-a-bid-to-curb-demand-317032

Chris Duane has a new medallion out for purchase. They've already sold over 7,000 of them! If you're interested in buying some, please use this link: https://www.silverbulletsilvershield.com/freedom-girl-one-ounce-medallio...

Finally...and somewhat reluctantly...I'm going to post this link to a segment from Dr. Janda's show last weekend. After a few minutes, the guest turns his attention to an anti-Obama diatribe. Take it for what it's worth and shut it off if you need to. However, the first five minutes or so definitely deserve your attention. Dr. Dave clearly feels this guy is legitimate, so, listen closely. https://www.davejanda.com/audio/JimGarrow012713.mp3

OK, that's it for today. Have a great one!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  332 Comments

Bill of Rights
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:08pm
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:09pm

And I should add

Anytime I make a new post, my twitter followers get notified.

If you would like to be notified, just click one of the links above and follow me @TFMetals.

Ilya Repin
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:10pm

Metals have bottomed 0309

Metals have bottomed 0309 says so. Gold at 1800 in feb.

US mint 7,000,000 eagles so far.

That_1_Guy
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:10pm

Johnny 5

Is alive!!

Made outta silver!

Big L
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:12pm

Thank you for considering

The Turd Round, I would really like to buy a few.

Do you know how many you would need to sell to make it worth the effort?

The Watchman
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:13pm

Updated Sales for ASE's=NEW Monthly Record

2013 Silver Sales Totals
(in ounces / number of coins)
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
January 7,130,000
7,130,000
Total 7,130,000
7,130,000

[Top]

Beastly Stack
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:16pm

Please Visit

I did wait to get TF's permission.I am a turdite and long time follower of Jim Sinclair and I decided to write my own blog.If you enjoy trading and would like another's perspective,please visit me @

https://tradermartinstake.com/

Thanks Turd

Jan 29, 2013 - 12:19pm

Ammo Report

Ammo Report - JHP for Common Calibers - Handguns - Turners and Bass Pro Shop From January 25, 2013, Turners, Rancho Cucamonga, CA. [I just could not break away to get ammo around the first of the month, then the gun control craze erupted, and I did not have two hours to waste in line trying to buy ammo. Hence, I went at the end of the month, when I figured the crowds would thin out a bit. I was right on the crowds, but the damn ammo was literally emptied from the shelf. Only the high end JHP was available, but NONE for .38 or 9mm. Let’s see what happens next month. Price paid: 1 box - Hornady .45 ACP +P Custom 230 GR XTP, 20 rounds = $20.99; 1 box .40 SW Custom 155 GR XTP, 20 rounds = $19.99; No boxes of 9mm available; 1 box - Hornady 357MAG 125GR Crit Def 25 rounds = $27.99 No boxes of .38 available; Peoples’ Republik of Kalifornia sales tax = $5.52 Total: $74.49 As for the Bass Pro Shop foray on Jan 25, 2013, they were totally sold out of all JHP in the above calibers. In fact, the shelves looked like a communist Russian bread store in the 70's, bare as hell, with “not available” signs all over the shelves. This looked like panic buying, for sure. Lot’s of sheeple being fleeced by the panic induced by Feinstein’s gun bill. Note that the gun bill does not ban M1A’s? So the dumb govt bans the lower caliber, less lethal 5.56 “assault weapons,” but does not ban the more powerful M1A’s with their .308 [7.62x51 NATO] cartridges? That sounds exactly like the govt dumbasses that I know. In a few months, when all the hype has dissipated, I will quietly be securing another M1A, or ten, who knows. Long range rifle classes are all set up in Feb., and I even hired a private instructor/armorer to help me set up the scope, rings, cheek addition, etc. Game on! Molon Labe! p.s. Turd, Happy Birthday my friend! Sorry I missed posting yesterday.

Anonymous
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:20pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Ilya Repin
Jan 29, 2013 - 12:21pm

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