A National Holiday

Mon, Jan 28, 2013 - 11:28am

Two score and seven years ago this day, during the tumultuous Keynesian Epoch and the disastrous reign of King LBJ, Mama Ferg brought forth a Turd...

...It's just too bad that today isn't a bank holiday (yet).

Anyway, there is just so much stuff going on, behind the scenes and right in front of us, that it is really easy to miss/overlook a few things. Additionally, it makes it very challenging to know where to start.

For example, years ago a story like this one would have been BIG news and it would have elicited all sorts of hand-wringing, discussion and speculation. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-28/currency-wars-heating-taiwan-korea-and-china-fire-warning-shots Now it's just another headline in a virtually endless string of fiat currency devaluations.

And then there's this. Glossed over last week and completely ignored by the MSM, this story speaks volumes about the current state of affairs. https://www.sovereignman.com/expat/scam-complete-the-us-government-takes-a-page-from-diocletians-book-10559/

But again today, I want to focus upon that which I know is happening. Of course, I can't prove it and certainly others will suggest that they know the exact opposite. One day, in the (not too) distant future, the Chinese will introduce a gold-backed renminbi for international trade settlement and an alternative to the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. (By the way, perhaps you'll know this day is drawing near when your spellcheck does not think "renminbi" is a misspelled word.)

Anyway, we know that China officially imported about 800mts in 2012, on top of 400 or so in 2011. Their last public pronouncements on their reserves came in 2009, so, given all of official imports since then, the unofficial and off-the books imports AND the amount they've mined and not exported, it's really anyone's guess as to how much gold they are actually sitting upon. 3000 mts? 4000?? 6000??? And the total continues to grow, as do the imports of so many other nations. Take this headline as just another example. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/russia-kazakhstan-expand-gold-reserves-as-central-banks-buy.html And, of course, the German Gold Hijinx is just the start of a global move to repatriate reserves. Is Switzerland next? https://goldnews.bullionvault.com/swiss-gold-bullion-repatriation-012420136

And how does this story fit into the picture? https://in.news.yahoo.com/china-introduce-gold-exchange-traded-funds-052201538.html

So, finally, for today let's simply focus upon the strange occurrences within SLV and GLD since the first of the year. Two weeks ago, the SLV added about 18.4MM ounces in one day, more than it had added in all of 2012. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/slv-etf-adds-record-572-tons-silver-one-day-more-all-2012. Then, back on Friday alone, over 7 million ounces were withdrawn. What in the heck is going on? There are many theories but by far the best I've seen comes from Uncle Ted. Since 18MM ounces would be a holding of just under 5% of the fund...and 5% is the level at which a concentrated position must be reported...Ted thinks that a large investor (a Buyer of Size) has taken this position for the expressed purpose of taking delivery. Fast. Again, this makes the most sense considering all of the anecdotal evidence we've accumulated of delivery delays in similar-sized orders through the LBMA. And just who would be wanting 20MM ounces of silver in a hurry? Go back up a paragraph and read the "china etf" story again.

Even if official Chinese sources are not the buyers of this silver, someone is...and that someone seems intent upon building up a sizeable inventory. Is this the "final straw"? Will we look back with hindsight later this year and conclude that this was the sign that the silver market was finally breaking, after years of price suppression finally led to shortages and defaults? Maybe. Regardless, I like Ted's idea a lot and it certainly seems a plausible explanation for the strange goings-on. (You can read Ted's entire analysis by becoming a subscriber: https://www.butlerresearch.com)

Contrast this action within the SLV with the GLD. While SLV has added (and withdrawn) all of this silver this year, the total inventory at the GLD has been declining. By over 20 metric tonnes! On 1/2/13, the total GLD inventory stood at 1349.92 mts. As of Friday, it had fallen to 1329.90. Hmmmm. So while prices have been rising, falling and rangebound for the first four weeks of the year, both ETFs have seen massive withdrawals of metal by someone looking for immediate access and delivery. What does this tell you?

And here you are, spending your weekend obsessing about the writings of some guy who, fresh off his release from the pokey, seems determined to remake himself into some sort of contrarian. Whatever. He can draw all sorts of lines on his silly charts but none of them will change the insatiable demand of the Chinese for physical precious metal as they prepare the next global financial paradigm.

Instead, let's focus on these lines and these silly charts.

Finally, don't forget that today is the day that the U.S. Mint had promised to resume sales of ASEs. Hmmm, I wonder how long it will take until they are forced to suspend sales again? Later today? Tomorrow? Friday? We'll see. Come to think of it, since ASE demand only seems to increase as price rises, perhaps now we know why silver has been beaten back over $1.50 since Wednesday. Did Little Timmy send out orders to Jamie, instructing him to have The Monkeys bash price in order to curtail ASE demand this week? Makes about as much sense as anything else emanating from the silver pit lately.

With that, have a great day and try to keep your wits about you. The Feb13 gold options finally expire today. (And with it my $1800 call that I bought back in November. Ouch.) And though price will likely remain pressured through FND on Wednesday, things should rebound in short order later this week. Maybe the BLSBS will be a catalyst for buying...for once!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 28, 2013 - 11:32am

Nummer 2

Nummer 2, Thanks for this site!

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:33am

Opps double!

Opps, sorry

Just A Regular Guy
Jan 28, 2013 - 11:33am

Damn you Istack!

Goddamit Istack stop winning!

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:34am

happy b-day

wishing you a FIFTH of the good stuff!

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:35am


i'm happy we get new life infused by the Turd, after such a low TITS index!

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:36am

More anecdotal evidence

"As for when the fifth-gen iPad will make its debut, Horwitz said Apple was originally targeting a March launch, but it now appears we'll have to wait until October, possibly because some components are limited at this time."


Big L
Jan 28, 2013 - 11:36am


And many happy returns. Thank you, for being you.

thurd aye
Jan 28, 2013 - 11:36am

Zero Dark Mali

A take by a new author to me,related immediately :O))


Jan 28, 2013 - 11:38am

Happy B'Day TF!

Hope you are having a better day than the PMs.


Jan 28, 2013 - 11:39am

ya` I'd be Turd again!!!!

I'm waiting for either 2011 or 2008 to happen again either way its good for gold!

Come on US downgrade!~


May you be repleasant with much stacking of gold and silver this year and may it finally move up to over 2000

But most of all be happy and healthy!

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:40am

Mayor Turd...is a super hero!...

The 1st Annual A.I.M. Winter Parade was a huge success...& I want to Thank everyone for their participation!...However...a special Thanks goes out to Mayor Turd of Turdville...super hero extraordinaire!...MUDbone was saved from becoming just another "Anonymous Guy" by Mayor Turd...when he swooped in & fished MUDbone out...before he got trampled!...There will be the Awards Ceremony at closing of the A.I.M. festive season...& Mayor Turd will be honoured for his heroism!!!...

The AIM Parade... Bag Of Gold

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:42am


Even the most "progressive" are Pigs, at heart...


Jan 28, 2013 - 11:44am

Official US Gold Audit – 12

Official US Gold Audit – 12 Days Left To Sign The Petition

goldsilverworlds.com / By Gold Silver Worlds / January 27, 2013

As reported earlier on this site, an official petition was launched on the website of the White House to have the US vaults audited. If there is one thing kept secret, then it is the amount of gold held by the US central bank. The presence of central bank gold became a very in the past couple of months and seemed to create a chain reaction after Germany announced to repatriate part of their gold back to Germany. It remains unknown to everyone how much gold really is present in the vaults. The US vaults host a lot of gold of many countries worldwide.


Jan 28, 2013 - 11:45am
Urban Roman
Jan 28, 2013 - 11:45am

Happy birthday, then!

Apparently they put on a fireworks display for your 20th.


And back to the topic, looks like it's time for a trek the the LCS today or tomorrow.

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:45am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:48am

I am just waiting for a rally that...

lasts for more than a few minutes.

I mean, its is so totally unnatural that I have lost any respect for the EE in that they are not even hiding what they are doing. No masquerade, nada. Just keep hitting.

Folks keep very alert cause one day probably soon if you are underweight paper PM like me, this is going to turn around on a dime.

Tomorrow I get my 2013 eagles!! Next up--a few 100 oz bars. Have them and 50 oz and use a couple for paperweights. Unless someone coming over in which case I revert back to coffee cups with logos of where I used to work that I use for pen and pencil holders. .

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:48am

Bag, Pining et al

Thank you very much!

Beastly Stack
Jan 28, 2013 - 11:50am

Happy Birthday

Happy Birthday TF!

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:54am

Getting close

Getting close to the final push down in gold to facilitate the move higher in miners ... if history is any guide. Then the turn starts. Not that this is any way manipulated, controlled, biased, programmed or otherwise anything less than a random occurrence.

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:57am

Happy birthday!!Go skeet

Happy birthday!!

Go skeet shooting! hehehehahaha!

Jan 28, 2013 - 11:59am
Joe Dokes
Jan 28, 2013 - 12:00pm

Happy Birthday and Thanks!

Good morning all,

Been lurking for a while, decided to make my first post to wish Turd a Happy Birthday and to thank him for this site. Also wish to thank everyone who posts, I've learned a lot from you guys and I appreciate it.


Joe Dokes

Jan 28, 2013 - 12:02pm


I kind of recall 2008, the PM and miners sucked well before the stock market sucked. Then that all turned around.

miners went up I think 340% from their low--and spx fell to 675 from 1450

hui was under 160 in 2008--ran to 640

400% give or take but how ever gets both the bottom and top

(the saying is be happy with the middle 80% of you can get that)

Jan 28, 2013 - 12:06pm

Happy Birthday Whippersnapper!

And many, many more.

Jan 28, 2013 - 12:07pm

Some wiggle room for ASE production?

We plan to resume sales on or about the week of January 28, 2013

Edward G
Jan 28, 2013 - 12:09pm

The aquarian on the contrarian

Very funny, this post was a classic..... yeah the man from pokey made even you feel strangely sane too haha!!

Happy Burthday to our main man, you are about 7 months my junior sir!!

let's all enjoy the day!

Jan 28, 2013 - 12:10pm

This would make a good Birthday Present

For the Turd who has everything...

Jan 28, 2013 - 12:13pm
R man J
Jan 28, 2013 - 12:13pm

Timmah is Gone...

Our esteemed Sec Treasury recorded his last day Jan. 24. I dont think Mr. Squiggles his replacement is trained yet....

I said all that to say this...Who's gonna tell US Mint to stop using up all the silver making ASEs?

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