Surviving Gold Opex

Fri, Jan 25, 2013 - 11:50am

As I tried to warn two days ago, gold has been summarily beaten by The Forces of Darkness as we approach Feb13 option expiration on Monday. Hang in there. It's almost over.

If memory serves correctly, I gave you 1660-1670 as a floor for gold and I'd hoped that 31.60 would hold in silver. Mehhh...we're hanging in there. Though other analysts might have you believe something different and even ZH is getting in on the act (, this is nothing but Cartel shenanigans attempting to manage price ahead of option expiration. This chart was posted Wednesday by Turdite "JustAnotherLurker" and it pretty much tells you all you need to know.

One glance at the chart above and you can quickly decipher The Cartel "sweet spot", somewhere between 1665 and 1670. No wonder, then, that today's price action is centered there. Look for that to continue Monday, too.

Silver has, of course, been taken to the woodshed along with gold as JPM et al use any possible weakness to exploit price lower. This has nearly run its course, too, though there still exists the possibility that silver could briefly fall to near its 200-day MA early next week. IF it does, BTFD.

A couple of other, random items of which you should be aware...

LOTS of interesting chatter about Fed/ESF interference in the global bonds markets and how this is affecting current economic relationships. As you know, I fully expect a gold-backed renminbi to soon be offered as an alternative currency to the U.S. dollar. The only issue is when. Developments like this certainly move the ball down the field: And then you've got this idea being kicked around, too:

Leveraging Gold Reserves To Help Lower Eurozone Sovereign Debt Yields

I don't know if the current beating has violated any of this fellow's charts, but here's some traditional TA from a guy at Minyanville who think that silver is headed to $77 quite soon. Works for me! And here's his chart:

And for your weekend reading pleasure, here's the latest from Jim Quinn. He sent it to me Wednesday but I haven't had a chance to publicize it until today. ZH picked it up, too, so you might have already seen it. Regardless, I thought I'd add the link today in case you'd missed it.

And the "Race to Debase" continues in earnest. What's-his-bucket, Yamamoto(?), said the other day that he wanted to see the yen trade all of the way down to parity/par with the dollar. Starting to look like he's going to get his wish. Having failed at 1.11 and slipping through 1.10, could 1.00 be coming??

Finally, just two thoughts on the big ETFs. First, I asked our pal Andrew about the enormous, alleged addition to the SLV last week. He confirmed that it did, indeed, happen. 18,000,000 ounces collected, over time, and deposited into the vaults. The main question now is: Why? Why the rush to repay and reload? And then chew on this: Why the additions to SLV (silver in trust - allegedly - is now up almost 7% YTD) while the GLD is being raided for gold? Yesterday we saw another 2.4 mts of gold get sucked out. This leaves the fund at 1331.71 mts versus a 1/2/13 level of 1349.92 mts. Hmmmm...Over 18mts gone in the last three weeks, all while price has been rangebound between 1630 and 1690. Again, hmmmmmm........

OK, that's it for today. I hope you have a great weekend and please check back later this morning or afternoon for a very important and significant "sticky" post. You'll definitely want to read it.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 25, 2013 - 11:55am



Fat Willie
Jan 25, 2013 - 11:57am

Top ten!


Jan 25, 2013 - 11:59am

Gold Bank Run Accelerating…Now the Swiss Want Their Gold Back

With last week’s announcement by the Bundesbank of the repatriation of 674 tons of German gold from Paris and NY over the next 7 years, we predicted that an avalanche of gold repatriation requests would soon be made to the BOE and the NYFed.
It appears that Switzerland may be next to the game, much to the dismay of the SNB. The Swiss gold initiative, an initiative to Secure the Swiss National Bank’s Gold Reserves, launched in March 2012 by four members of the Swiss parliament, has grown to 90,000 supporters.
Once 100,000 supporters are achieved, the Swiss Parliament must take up the referendum.

The initiative asserts that the Swiss people should have a right to vote on 3 things, none of which will please the banking cartel:

1. To keep Swiss gold physically in Switzerland (ie repatriate Switzerland’s gold)
2. Preventing/forbidding the SNB from selling any more of its gold reserves
3. Requiring the SNB to massively increase their gold holdings to a minimum of 20% of its reserves within 5 years, held within Switzerland

Not surprisingly, the Swiss National Bank doesn’t wish to disclose where it’s physical gold is held, but it may soon be forced to once the initiative achieves 100,000 supporters.

674 tons repatriated here, 1040 tons repatriated there, pretty soon we’re talking real money!

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:00pm


again. Damn I'm good .

Speaking of gold, this is a golden tortoise beetle. Amazing.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:03pm

Server Issues

Its nice to see other sites like ZH having server issues other than TFM

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:05pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:05pm

What's in store

At time of writing, the prices seem to bottoming, but I am still short term bearish. Over on his trading corner, Pailin mooted that silver could sink soon to the 200 day moving average at around $30.60.

I think we can expect that at the very least, but I think we will fall further.

I was encouraged by Jin Sinclair's message posted by Turd on the last thread. He believes that the cartel are losing, and will try one last massive smack-down on gold, before we move rapidly higher. Quote: "This is the big one and one last play to denude you of your position."

This is consistent with my own gut feel about silver in particular, that the cartel will aim for sub $29 one last time before we move up. They may even briefly go sub $26 to farm all the stops, and in the hope of undermining the technicals for months and years to come.

I've been sharing these views on main street these last weeks, and I took some profits at the recent highs to have my ammo ready, for sub $29. I will only be buying silver for the near future, I don't care what gold does for now. I would expect silver to leave gold behind in the race upwards. Once silver gets moving, its moves could be explosive. This is what the cartel are scared of. Scotty is screaming at Blythe from the engine room, telling her that the engine is gonna blow, but she is still going to take silver down sub-$30 one last time.

So don't lose heart everyone; a smack-down if it comes, will be for technical reasons only. It might last a few days. It is the necessary prelude for blast off!

disclaimer: do your own due diligence.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:08pm

I'm beginning to feel...

...obsessed with trying to be in the Top 10 and I seem to be moderately successful at it. Now if I can only figure out a way to parlay that Turd's comment section Top 10 prowess into an increase in fiat income. I'd then have more opportunities to convert it to something of real value such as Ag.

Alas, all I'm left with is...Fifth...and an unchanged stack...until next payday...

Keep Stacking!

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:10pm

I'm making a commitment ....

to sell all of my PM stocks and buying more physical at appropriate times. Still have some profit and dry powder there even though it is being pummeled!

Most PM stock companies are compromised. They turn the other way in face of obvious manipulation of their 'commodity'. Cause they are mostly controlled by TPTB!

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:10pm

@ Turd

SLV...why..hmmm u gettin a hang of SANTA....but on a more serious note why??

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:11pm

The video Turd linked to is

The video Turd linked to is interesting, but does anybody really think Germany would allow its sovereign gold to be collateralized in order to bail out the PIIGS over which it has been demonstrated time and again they have zero influence? I don't. That gold is their last bulwark against the rapidly disintegrating Euro-disaster, I doubt there would be any support for using the gold to buy another year of holding actions and dissemby.

If the German gold actually existed, that is...which it doesn't. ;)

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:11pm


Confirms the views of the 90 year old native American in the last thread.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:14pm

Why the SLV addition?

"Finally, just two thoughts on the big ETFs. First, I asked our pal Andrew about the enormous, alleged addition to the SLV last week. He confirmed that it did, indeed, happen. 18,000,000 ounces collected, over time, and deposited into the vaults. The main question now is: Why?"

Just guessing, but could it be that China actually took delivery and that Apple suddenly found the silver to ramp up production, as seems to be the case?

Juest guessing but the coincidence is rather, what do we say, coincidental?

As goes Apple shipments or lack thereof so goes the indication of silver shortage.


Jan 25, 2013 - 12:16pm

Davos Dump !

Why can't "climate change" ever do anything positive .... like an avalanche that wipes out Davos ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad New World Order World Tour

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:18pm

GATA t-shirts

support GATA! I got mine yesterday.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:18pm

Gold to $10,000

if the fiat money supply is revalued to gold. Silver should trade at 1/10 to 1/15, call it just under 1/12- so Silver to $850.

Done. Now please have a relaxing weekend and forget the noise for a bit...

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:19pm


Market Recap for

Thursday January 24, 2013






GOLD - 1 year ago






SILVER - 1 year ago




























52.73 to 1


Jan 25, 2013 - 12:25pm

Re: From Kuppy: Which Country

Re: From Kuppy: Which Country Doesn't Mind A Strong Currency...??? Re: From Kuppy: Which Country Doesn't Mind A Strong Currency...??? We're thinking along the same lines? Here's my morning post on TFMetals board.

Re: From Kuppy: Which Country Doesn't Mind A Strong Currency...???We're thinking along the same lines? Here's my morning post on TFMetals board. Conclusion: A rising yuan backed by sufficient gold, cheap gold at that, is what the City of London Banksters want, imo. They, themselves, are accumulating as much cheap gold and silver as they can for their own personal vaults. They know that at these "spot rates" and China's insatiable and growing desire to get as much PM's as possible, the West's Gold and Silver reserves will soon run out. The CB's of London and the US are probably empty already.I still don't understand the contradictory idea that by selling one's gold, it will prop up the currency, while at the same time they want to devalue the currency? It can only be a mirage of some sort for the reason stated above.The Banks or their higher up personnel want to devalue both the Dollar and the price of gold/silver in order to buy as much as they can before it, the PM's run out of circulation, before the much anticipated "Reset" occurs and they make many times what they bought their PM's for. Now that makes sense to me.___________________________________________________
I think you are absolutely correct. I have been writing for years now that after China had established, first its mfg. base, it would then create an internal domestic market such that it wouldn't be so supportive of its export market. Its pretty much done those two things. Now, it wants to strengthen the yuan and this is a first step.

What I find fascinating is that it a GB Pound/Yuan swap that's being considered. The City of London is the international gold center. The Chinese want to get as much gold as they can to underpin the value of the yuan.

As commodities rise and China's internal appetite for them and to import them exceeds or balances the necessity of continued increasing exports, then commodities will be cheaper for China with a rising yuan.

The Chinese will be able to buy foreign gold and silver for less with an increasing yuan as the years go on, esp. vis a' vis other countries who are frantically attempting to devalue their currencies, thus selling their gold and silver at lower and lower real nominal i.e. purchasing power prices.

The Chinese are laughing all the way to PBOC, the only one that's probably still solvent.

They've played the West like a rare violin for more than a decade. Unless one takes up the argument that the Western Elites profited by these moves inordinately at the expense of their countries and peoples, they are either brilliant for their own ends, incompetent fools, or traitors. I don't think that they are incompetent fools.

Here's a link that Turd uncovered that supports our theses.

The Banks or their higher up personnel want to devalue both the Dollar and the price of gold/silver in order to buy as much as they can before it, the PM's run out of circulation, before the much anticipated "Reset" occurs and they make many times what they bought their PM's for. Now that makes sense to me.
Here's a link that Turd uncovered that supports our theses.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:28pm

You're not reading this correctly

18,000,000 ounces were added to the SLV.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:29pm

Morgan Downer

He went back and reviewed the charts? - after 30 years he needs BS charts?

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:30pm

Burning Platform

I posted and sent that to a few people and places yesterday. It may be his best to date. Reading this and recognizing how much of it is likely on target it is no wonder he had to take a break due to becoming depressed over what he was learning from connecting so many dots.

To sum it all up: a bunch of no good so and so's are trying to take over the world and have ZERO concern about anyone else. Deflation would cure many effects of globalization, but that doesn't enrich the neofeudalists on the backs of the rest of the world. The collateral damage means nothing to them even as it spins us out of control. Where the heck do they plan to ride out the tsunami from Hell they are igniting? Sobering stuff indeed. You sure won't be in line to turn your weapons in to the asshats after reading it. No way.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:32pm


Question about the recent additional stockpile to SLV; How much silver was denied to the US Mint in order to add supply to SLV? (any comment Masa Dimon or Mizz Mahstahs?)

And could this indicate that the US Mint must now acquire silver (gold too) from the ETF's?

Talk about a shell game. It's a shame there has not been an avalanche at Davos.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:34pm

Ready for #7?

PL well above gold now, too.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:38pm

The Frustration

for me is how gold and silver spend days and weeks climbing and yet those gains get wiped out is hours and days. Eights days of gains in silver obliterated in two days and 10 days in gold gone in three. Absolute F'in BS.

Regarding the 18 Million added to SLV I find it interesting the the short interest in SLV happens to match the amount of fresh silver added

And GLD loses 18 Million mts.

If it looks like shit, smells like shit and tastes like shit it probably is shit.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:38pm


Nice chart Turd, now thinking a good hedge for gold is platinum and a hedge for platinum is gold.

Palladium is in there somewhere, maybe a hedge on silver?

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:42pm

Here's the Dip. Where's the Silver?

We may all thank Blythe and the EE for this current dip in the price of PM's. Another great opportunity to add to the stack, except its now hard to find silver quickly and with a reasonable premium.

My LCS that I have dealt with for years, started up a wait list for silver at the beginning of the year. I have been back to check and have been assured that I'm on the "A" list, as opposed to the casual "B" list! So I asked, "How many lists are there?" The reply was, "You don't want to know!"

My only take away from this encounter, is that physical silver supplies, must indeed be in very tight supply.

BTFD that's if you can find some readily available!

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:43pm
Jan 25, 2013 - 12:45pm


A day or so ago someone posted about the pipeline from Texas to Canada and the story was the Nebraska Gov. approved a route that bypassed wetlands. So since that pipeline was approved, couldn't they have just decided to use that one instead?

Edit: p.s. we all know uncle Warren B. is behind the rail transit.

Jan 25, 2013 - 12:47pm

Um, need!

Tell me this wouldn't make a fantastic at home bank/armory!
Jan 25, 2013 - 12:49pm



This post was inspired from a blog entry by DrkPurpleHaze. Stealing a line from the late great George Carlin, "FOLKS... THERE'S A LOT OF BULL SH*T OUT THERE... AND IT AIN'T GOOD FOR YOU."

That was from one of Carlin's last HBO Shows. The world today is AWASH in a great deal of worthless, fabricated, insignificant and lousy data. There aren't that many places to find the TRUTH and the real FUNDAMENTALS. You have to search for it. If you think you can turn on CNBC, CNN, FOX or BLOOMBERG for the truth... you are sadly mistaken

Furthermore, there is a lot of worthless crap on the internet that comes from the "Alternative Media". I still come across articles and interviews on some of the top precious metal and financial websites that we all tap into, that posts surprisingly lousy analysis.... AND FROM SOME VERY WEALTHY AND WELL KNOW NAMES.

Yesterday, I wrote a quick comment about BAKKEN OIL JOBS in North Dakota. Here was a part of the blog entry:

What is taking place in North Dakota is the same thing that took place during the 1848-50's California Gold Rush. And that is a Big Migration of people with very little in the form of housing and services.

ALL BOOMS behave the same way. After the BOOM, comes the BUST. The N.D. Bakken Boom won't be any different.

Just for your information... one of the biggest CASH COWS in the energy industry today are the PIPELINE COMPANIES. They are making money hand over fist. There have been plans for building a pipeline to North Dakota to move all that oil.

However, it looks like a pipeline is no longer in the cards. The oil service companies have elected to spend over $1 billion dollars in upgrading and adding RAIL LINES and added additional STATIONS. Why? Because they realize this oil will not last very long. That is why they decided not to build a pipeline.


Now, after I wrote that comment... DrkPurpleHaze put all these nice graphics of pipelines and shale oil deposits in Canada & the USA. Again, I am a bit puzzled as to why DrkPurpleHaze puts out this information. While we have had this discussion before, I am really surprised that someone who has the mindset to offer excellent comments as well as articles on the economy, gold and silver on Turd's blog... puts out this sort of energy info.

Believe me you... I AM NOT ALL KNOWING AND ALL WISE. However, I do understand what to read and listen to and what NOT.

SHALE OIL & GAS ARE HYPES AND SCAMS as they are being sold to the public presently. I have included information showing the the USGS has downgraded "SIGNIFICANTLY" the reserves of shale oil in the USA.

Now... to get back an REPLY to this PIPELINE ISSUE with BAKKEN OIL:

ONEOK Partners scraps Bakken oil pipeline plans

Tulsa-based ONEOK Partners LP announced Tuesday it has decided not to build the Bakken Crude Express Pipeline from North Dakota to Oklahoma due to a lack of long-term commitments by oil producers to use the 1,300-mile conduit.


Didn't mean to have that in such large type... but that is how it was reproduced. Anyhow, we can see that the reason why ONEOK Partners LP that it was not going to build the pipeline is due to a LACK OF LONG-TERM COMMITMENTS, by the shale oil producers. Why? Because they don't have a LONG TERM SUPPLY...LOL

According to Bloomberg:

“A group of oil and gas pipeline operators led by Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) announced plans just in the past three months to spend about $1 billion on rail depot projects to help move more crude from inland fields to refineries on the coasts.”


Now it costs three times more to move oil by RAIL than PIPELINE. It costs about $5 a barrel to move oil by pipeline and $15 by Rail. Why the hell are the Shale Oil Players allowing to LOSE $10 a barrel in the future by shipping by RAIL than by PIPELINE?? Who would be that stupid?

It looks like the USGS RELEASE last year of the huge downgrades of Shale Oil Reserves is what throw out any possibility for a PIPELINE.

Folks... there is a great deal of GARBAGE, RUBBISH, MISINFORMATION AND LIES in the media. Anyone who REGURGITATES this sort of info, better be sure they know what they are doing because I would feel AWFUL if I misled others.


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