Wed, Jan 23, 2013 - 1:17pm

Lots to talk about today but it's late, so, all you get are charts.

I've had a very busy morning. I had intended to write a bunch of stuff about silver demand but that's going to have to wait until tomorrow. Besides, the charts need your attention as Feb13 gold option expiration and First Notice Day is right around the corner and we need to stay alert.

So let's look at gold. First of all, you can clearly see on the daily and weekly charts that it is working itself into a corner. Normally, this would be fine as it might be just as apt to break out and UP than out and down.

However, option expiration for the Feb13 is next Monday, the 28th. Following closely behind, First Notice Day for delivery is next Wednesday, the 30th. As per usual, we must expect some Cartel shenanigans as they try to shake price and rattle/dissuade prospective "deliverees". Then throw this log on the fire...the daily chart with RSI. Note that the battle against 1700 resistance has sapped some of gold's momentum and the RSI (a measure of momentum) is actually turning lower, below the levels last seen in late November.

All of this means that the next 3-5 trading days in gold will likely hold more weakness than strength. All of us stackers should be looking to buy a dip that could take prices down to the $1660-1670 level. Paper traders, especially those with Feb13 contracts should be wary.

Though weakness in gold always spills over into the silver pit, the situation there doesn't look nearly as tenuous. Both the daily and weekly charts show plenty of wiggle room for silver to move without violating any of the current trends.

And the silver chart with RSI looks OK for now, too. The RSI has climbed significantly...that's what seven, consecutive UP days will do for you...but it's still trending higher and is not yet to the late November levels. At any rate, I like silver here and I might be looking to buy some March or May calls if weakness spills over from selling in gold.

Have a great day but, after the action this morning, be on the lookout for that nasty, little Globex gold algo again this afternoon.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


El Gordo
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:19pm

Let's hear it for the charts

Hip, hip, hooray.

thurd aye
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:21pm

second is good my first(second)

yes the webinar was good .I hate technicals normally,but I think I might get into it in the future. ;O))

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:24pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:24pm

Keep Stacking

You might not be able to get them soon!

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:26pm

I'd have been first

if I wasn't so narcoleptic.

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:26pm

Mirror of yesterday

If you ignore the raid, today's Comex is almost the same as yesterday's

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:27pm

After reviewing the VIX

chart on ZH, which is:

The last time VIX fell to an all-time low and market-confidence hit an all-time high, it presaged a financial crisis. John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer Asset Management writes:

We caution our readers about past periods of deflated volatility; the last time the VIX traded down to a new low, which occurred on 01/24/07, it rallied drastically in the following month. Approximately six weeks later on 03/05/07 the index had increased to 98.48%. By 08/16/07, less than eight months from the low, the VIX index was up 211.73%.

This time may not be so different.


Sure wish I had entered a trade on the XIV like my cousin did in October. 

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:30pm
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:34pm

Cool Silver Item on the Bay...

Only problem with that putter is that your name has to be Jackie and you need to know a Jack who you forgot to give a birthday present to on the 29th May 1961.

I mean, what are the chances, eh?

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:35pm

Plenty of Silver? Not So Much

At these present prices.

Supplies of physical silver are being hoarded, and won't come to market at these present prices.

HSBC has just signed another contract with KGHM of Poland for more silver bullion. KGHM is the worlds second largest producer of refined silver. This brings HSBC's silver purchases from KGHM to $876 million.

Its has been reported that the supply of Apple's new products are suffering from a shortage of silver, thus slowing production in China.

Mint statistics from the US, Canada, Australia and Austria, show a very tight silver supply. This is showing up in a shortage of silver mint items for sale at the retail level and correspondingly higher premiums being charged.

The hoarded silver will not come out of hiding until much higher prices are forth coming.

Look out! Thar she blows! Get yours while the gettins good!

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:44pm

$876 Million in Silver? What's That?

Silver bought by HSBC equals $876 Million? BFD. What's that? Why that's about 24-25 million in US silver Eagles, if you or I purchased them at $36 each, which we cannot.

Not even 30 million ounces, or not even ONE year of ASE production. 

The vampire bankers are scurrying to get that silver....or die trying. By their efforts they just prove what that that tall-dark-stranger, far-sighted, yellow-hatted dude has been saying all along.

Bill of Rights
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:45pm

House Passes Debt Limit

House Passes Debt Limit Extension | TPM LiveWire

The House passed a GOP bill suspending the debt ceiling until May 19 on Wednesday by a margin of 285 - 144. The bill now heads to the Senate. It includes a provision, touted by Republican leadership as "No budget, no pay," that would withhold senators’ pay if they don’t pass a budget by the April 15 statutory deadline.

Chris P. Bacon
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:47pm
Jan 23, 2013 - 1:47pm

Oldest Bank In The World Plunges, Halted As Chairman Resigns

Oldest Bank In The World Plunges, Halted As Chairman Resigns In Aftermath Of Latest Derivatives Fiasco

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:52pm

@ Outlookingin

"The hoarded silver will not come out of hiding until much higher prices are forth coming."

I don't think that price level is the only determinant. Anticipation of price is just as important. If a smack-down is expected, some silver will be sold either in despair, or in anticipation of buying it back cheaper. Meanwhile, some demand gets put on hold, while it waits to see how low silver will go.

The cartel stuck it out in 2008/9 with shortages, with a price of around $9, that had fallen from $21. They weren't in a hurry to let the price rise.

Jan 23, 2013 - 1:55pm

Chalk one more up for silver!

'More and more Malaysians are buying silver as a cheaper alternative to the more expensive gold for investment purposes these days, a trend that began at the end of 2010 when the silver price started rallying to a 30-year high."

BTW, Go 49ers! Bring home the 6th title!

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:00pm
dropout Byzantium
Jan 23, 2013 - 2:01pm

@ Byz

Supply & price go hand in hand with demand.

At this juncture in the physical silver market, those who do sell are the "weak hands."

To not be "in" at this point, is to be left on the platform waving bye, bye!

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:17pm

Another bank website down. has been down all day

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:26pm

ag1969 works for me.

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:30pm

@ Outlookingin

You might well be right, but I disagree.

We stackers tend to be quite religious about silver's prospects. We simply do not know the motives of the larger hoarders, the ones who hoard tonnes of physical silver. Maybe they will sell in anticipation of certain price moves, as I described.

Furthermore, please consider the possibility that some private deals might be occurring where silver is flowing to the cartel at prices far above spot, to facilitate ongoing stranglehold of the silver price via the comex. 

I hate being the naysayer, but here we all are on the same wavelength, and we have to keep challenging our assumptions somehow.

I will just conclude that all of us have been caught out by some previous silver-price waterfalls, to the extent that we were speechless, confused, gob-smacked, humbled, and poorer. Then we have a good run and forget past lessons, that should not be so easily forgotten.

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:32pm


Decent little correction in WTI. Down about 1.50

Not sure if this is why:

01-23 10:22: Analysts Forecast Increase in U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles NEW YORK--U.S. weekly oil data are expected to show stocks of crude oil rose last week as refiners cut operations. According to estimates from 13 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, U.S. crude-oil inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 18. All 13 analysts expect crude-oil stocks to rise, with estimates of the increase ranging from 300,000 barrels to three million barrels. The closely watched government survey from the Energy Information Administration is due to be released at 11 a.m. EST Thursday, one day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, which closed government offices Monday. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is due to release its own survey at 4:30 p.m. EST Wednesday.
Jan 23, 2013 - 2:35pm

At least Daniela is Easy on the Eyes

Here is the latest from Jon Nadler. Keep your sense of humor or take your high blood pressure pills first.


Jan 23, 2013 - 2:35pm

@Urban Roman (Roman Holiday?)

If the DX goes to 88-90 as you suggest, then The US is truly fucked. And so are PM's. So if you believe what you say, you should be shorting PM's right now. Sell high, then buy low?

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:39pm

Thinking outside the box

What price is needed to bring back silver supply?

Let's say it is $40.

Okay, so in a $40 world, the cartel have to buy silver from hoarders at that price, but fail in their objective to suffocate the official silver price.

Here is plan B.

Smash the comex price down to $24, but privately be paying $40 to replenish themselves with silver.

See the point? The scoundrels pay $40 in either scenario, but in one of them, they continue their price manipulation. I suspect that this is what they were doing in 2008/9.

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:40pm

Spying by the EE increases.

Google Transparency Report shows rise in data requests YouTube logo

Data from Google shows the number of requests for user information from law enforcement agencies are at an all time high.

The search giant said it had received 21,389 applications from government officers and the courts over the last six months of 2012.

That is 17% up on the same period the previous year, and 71% more than 2009's corresponding months.

The figures include requests related to its YouTube video service.

Google said it handed over at least some data in 66% of the most recent cases.

The number of requests has risen over every half-year cycle since Google started publishing details three years ago.

Privacy concerns

The US made more requests than any other country with 8,438 submissions. Google complied fully or partially with 88% of these.

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:41pm
Jan 23, 2013 - 2:43pm

Thanks for this

Just goes to show we know why 1700 is being so vigorously defended, especially with the Globex trimjob clipping about $25 over the past week.

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:52pm


Is there any need for such after "Patriot", FEMA, DHS, NDAA, Drones etc.?

Jan 23, 2013 - 2:53pm

@ Just another lurker

Can you produce the same for silver?

thanks in anticipation....

edit: My bad, you provided a link. yes

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