Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - 11:44am

Watching the metals battle horizontal and MA resistance made me think of our theme song at the old "Watchtower" site. Clearly, it still applies today.

Video unavailable

So, where are we on this fine Friday? Well, first of all, those we're some perfect and beautiful FUBMs yesterday. And don't let the silly name throw you. The FUBM is an extremely powerful and important chart formation. Why? It shows that, even though The Cartels would like to rig prices lower, they are unable to do so because of strong demand for both paper and physical at the discounted/rigged prices. We saw a bunch of FUBMs back in early 2011, when prices were preparing to stage their massive rallies. Here are just a few examples:

  • (12/29/10)
  • (1/26/11)
  • (2/3/11)
  • (2/16/11)
  • Do yesterday's FUBMs signal that a similar move is coming over the horizon? We'll see, I guess.

    Another bit of circumstantial evidence of the impending rally comes from the sales of ASEs out of the U.S. Mint. The biggest January on record was January of 2011 with sales of 6.4MM ounces. Yesterday, as we crossed the 6MM mark on just the 17th of the month, The Mint suddenly "suspended sales" through at least the 28th. ( This looks and smells pretty fishy to me. Are they trying to mask and conceal demand OR are they simply out of metal? Actually, who cares?? Either situation is extremely bullish for silver. Since silver has proven to be a rare "Giffen Good" where demand actually increases as price increases, this overwhelming investment demand is just another, very strong indicator of future price.

    But if the U.S. mint is having so much trouble finding silver that they have to suspend sales, how on earth can the SLV find and secure 18.4MM ounces (572 metric tonnes) in just one day?? ( Pretty amazing, huh? Let's see, you can only load and transfer about one tonne at a time, maybe two if your truck is big enough. But the logistical magicians in the Custodial Department of JPM are able to transfer 300 truckloads in a day. Wow! No wonder they make the big bucks!

    Even more amazing is the fact that this (alleged) addition brings the new silver added to SLV up to 650 metric tonnes, year-to date. On 1/2/13, the total tonnes in trust were 10,085. As of last night, the number was 10,735. That's an increase of 6.44%.

    More amazing still is the fact that these (alleged) additions have taken place while the GLD has seen a huge drawdown. On 1/2/13, the total gold held in the GLD was 1348.92 tonnes. As of last night, it was down to 1332.61. That's a drop of 16.31 tonnes or 1.21% in just the past two weeks. So, silver is magically appearing while gold is disappearing. Hmmmm. What do you make of that? The most obvious answer is that it's all just a big charade and scam, but, what do I know? Who am I to question something that seems so obvious? I'm sure that everything is completely on the up-and-up. That JPM is custodian for SLV and HSBC does the same for GLD only inspires confidence, right? Right???

    Back to silver, a Turdite named "Ballyale" graciously shared with us an interesting, if anecdotal, tale last week regarding his interactions with Apple and their production delays in producing Imacs, etc. Ballyale speculated that these delays were due to the current scarcity of available silver (though it's clear that plenty is available for the SLV). The good guys over at SilverDoctors took the story and ran with it, today producing a post that neatly sums it all up. I encourage you to read this thoroughly.

    And this is fun. Jeff Nielson at BullionBullsCanada has written another excellent and well thought-out piece on silver manipulation and he discusses it in the context of platinum which, as you know, we are currently watching very closely here at TFMR. (Retreating from its fourth attempt at $1700 as I type.) Please read this article and support Jeff's site. He's a good dude and he works very hard, trying to expose and publicize the manipulation.

    Then there's this. On Wednesday I received an email from a longtime Turdite. I found it so alarming that I immediately wrote him back to ask if I could share it with the entire community. Thankfully, he obliged. Presented below without comment. Please give your full consideration to this, too.

    Thank you again for your dedicated service. I'm a daily reader and a big fan.
    I wanted to take a minute and share with you a very scary experience I had yesterday (Jan 15). I keep a portion of my rock collection at JP Morgan Chase in safety deposit boxes. This has been my bank since I moved to this town, I have had these boxes for nearly 10 years. Several years ago I was given 2 of them for "free" as a thank you for the various accounts I had with this branch. There seems to be quite a bit of turnover at the retail level and the branch manager that gave me these boxes left 2 years ago. I have been to the bank many, many times since then and got to know the new people to a lesser degree than the previous manager. I confirmed with the new manager that the same arrangement was in place, she agreed.
    Yesterday I went to my JP Morgan Chase branch to make a deposit and touch my collection as I often do. The teller looked puzzled and said "We've been looking for you!". My address hasn't changed, my phone number hasn't changed and they volume of junk mail/account statements sent by them hasn't changed. "We've been sending you letters for the last year about your boxes, they are going to be drilled on 1/31 with the contents sent to the State of *******. Once they go to The State, it can take up to 2 years to get your property back after you pay the levies, fines and fees". Needless to say, the blood ran out of my face. The teller explained to me that my payments were past due for the boxes and it was their policy to drill the boxes and send the contents to The State after a year. Needless to say, I stopped caring about the deposit and began moving the contents. She assured me that she would wipe the issue clean and we'd be fine so I wouldn't have to move anything. Yeah right, my pockets and quickly emptied briefcase nearly gave out as I left 20 minutes later.
    How is it that I 5 pieces of mail from The Morgue each week but not these critical pieces? How is it they'd just drill the lock and send the contents away (probably in the trunks of their cars to their homes) when my phone number and address is the same as it's been? Why would they not just call me? Maybe just debit my account which they do for the other boxes and nonsense? I know most of these people by first name and they know me the same. I often see these people at Starbucks and the grocery and we exchange handshakes and pleasantries. Nice.
    I thought that some of the collection in The Morgue wasn't a bad idea for diversification's sake and that they're probably the last to go as an organization so it was safer there. Wrong!
    Here is just another example of why not to trust banks and why not to let phyzz out of your control.
    Keep doing what you're doing and we'll keep stacking and thanking you for your sound guidance daily.

    Next, Jim Quinn has a great, new piece that you should be sure to read over the weekend:

    And, finally, the charts. I'm delighted to report that both gold and silver look terrific on their respective dailies. Yesterday's failed raids only made them look better in that both metals were able to paint bullish, engulfing candles, too.

    Today, both metals are dealing with horizontal AND moving average resistance (silver 50-day is $32.03 and gold is $1697) and this has momentarily stalled the advance. Additionally, we've got a 3-day weekend ahead here in the U.S. and that usually means that there are more sellers than buyers hanging around. That's OK. I'm confident that we'll put these levels behind us early next week and then we'll move on to The Big Test. This event, subsequently known as "TBT", will set the stage for the rest of the spring. IF the meals can pass this test...meaning IF the metals can break resistance and get above all of their respective moving averages...the stage will be set for a very strong rally. Could it be a repeat of 2011? Possibly. Many of the same conditions exist (ongoing QE, tight supply, strong demand, etc). All I know is that nothing happens until and unless the metals pass TBT. For now, sit tight and watch. Get ready for some fireworks and unnerving volatility. But, be optimistic for there is much to be excited about.

    OK, that's all for now. Please be sure to check back later as I will be releasing a special and very important podcast dealing with the German Gold story. I'll also have some thoughts on this week's CoT, once it's released at 3:30 EST.

    Have a great day and a relaxing weekend. Get ready for next week and the start of TBT.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Jan 19, 2013 - 1:24am


    silver philharmonic is as close to the euro as i'm going to get. looks like something garcia might have

    Jan 19, 2013 - 1:43am

    our theme song at the old

    our theme song at the old "Watchtower" site

    Anyway, who is left from back then? I posted under the nick Markus (not Marcus with a c) back then.

    Jan 19, 2013 - 1:46am

    Re: Bank deposit boxes

    They offer those services for practically nothing. Guess why.

    Vernon Wormer
    Jan 19, 2013 - 2:31am


    Still here after all of these years. I got the fifth comment on Turd's first post. I'm still dining on that one.

    Jan 19, 2013 - 3:09am

    @magpie, that picture is a

    @magpie, that picture is a fake.

    Here is the picture that someone photoshopped....

    Here is the story behind the real picture.

    Google is your friend if you actually use it.

    We accuse people of being sheep because they believe everything the MSM says. When we believe everything that goes flashing around the Internet that reinforces our own biases, what does that make us?

    Jan 19, 2013 - 3:20am

    @Horst: I used to read the

    @Horst: I used to read the Watchtower in late 2010 and early 2011, when I first started stacking. I don't think I ever posted, but I don't remember. If I did it would have been under the same name since the Watchtower is a Blogger (Google) site and my blog is also a Blogger site.

    Jan 19, 2013 - 3:43am

    Just looking at Provident's web site.

    With the recent discussion about 90% and someone mentioning Provident having a good selection I decided to check them out. They do have good prices and selection when they are in stock! Almost all of their 90% is "temporarily out of stock."

    BTW, if they ever do get them back in stock with a comparable premium I'm definitely going to snag some of those Barber dimes, quarters an halves.

    Jason Foster
    Jan 19, 2013 - 4:47am

    Another silver related manufacturing delay?

    Ramp up delays for inexpensive Indian tablet, or infeasible plans?

    Posted on January 18, 2013by aviyer2010

    An article in the New York Times (December 30,2012) describes delivery delays for the $40 tablet promised by Datawind, a Canadian company trying to grow electronics manufacturing in India. With fewer than 10,000 units shipped instead of the promised 100,000, the company is described as overwhelmed with the launch. Is the problem the sourcing of manufacturing in India which does not have an electronics supply chain that is competitive? Is it the low price point? Or should one expect delays in building infrastructure in India? Or was the entire idea infeasible to begin with?

    Jan 19, 2013 - 5:36am


    sorry, skip pls

    Jan 19, 2013 - 5:44am

    This is VERY

    This is VERY interesting:


    House Republicans Plan Three-Month Debt-Limit Increase

    House Republicans revised their strategy for the coming months’ fiscal debate with Democrats, saying they’ll agree to a three-month debt-limit increase without demanding spending cuts as part of the deal.

    Instead, Republicans will use the planned Jan. 23 House vote on a debt-ceiling increase to try to force Senate Democrats to adopt a budget to spell out their spending plan.

    “We are going to pursue strategies that will obligate the Senate to finally join the House in confronting the government’s spending problem,” Speaker John Boehner of Ohio said in a statement yesterday at the end of House Republicans’ policy retreat at a resort near Williamsburg, Virginia.

    The strategy represents an acknowledgment by Republican leaders that they need to reassess their goals following President Barack Obama’s re-election and an increased Democratic majority in the Senate.

    The Treasury Department has said the U.S. will exceed its $16.4 trillion borrowing authority sometime from mid-February to early March. Congress faces two other fiscal deadlines in the next 90 days, and House Republicans plan to use those debates -- rather than the immediate one over the debt limit -- to push for federal spending cuts.

    Financing for government agencies is scheduled to lapse March 27, and lawmakers must pass new spending or cause a government shutdown. Also in March, Congress will confront the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts, half from defense, that were postponed in the Jan. 1 tax deal.

    This coincides with possible continuation of upward trend in PMs till March while delaying the resolution of correction triangle till June- July-August, as some here including me have been speculating all along if for different reasons, but anyhow related to debt and fiscal future development issues. VERY significant change in short term fundamentals.

    If this passes as they say, this triangle becomes a must to close before any further take on direction.

    Subscribe or login to read all comments.


    Donate Shop

    Get Your Subscriber Benefits

    Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

    Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

    7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
    7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
    7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
    7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
    7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

    Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

    7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
    7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
    7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
    7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
    7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
    7/11 8:30 ET CPI
    7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
    7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
    7/12 8:30 ET PPI

    Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

    7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
    7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
    7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
    7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
    7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
    7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
    7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
    7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
    7/4 US Market Holiday
    7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

    Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

    6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
    6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
    6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
    6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
    6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
    6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
    6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

    Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

    6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
    6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
    6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
    6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

    Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

    6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
    6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
    6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
    6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
    6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

    Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

    6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
    6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
    6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
    6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
    6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
    6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
    6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

    Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

    5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
    5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
    5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
    5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

    Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

    5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
    5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
    5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
    5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
    5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

    Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

    TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
    5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
    5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
    5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
    5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
    5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

    Forum Discussion

    by HappyNow, 22 min 9 sec ago
    by Green Lantern, 1 hour 4 min ago
    by Green Lantern, 3 hours 37 min ago
    by NW VIEW, 4 hours 5 min ago
    by Scarecrow, 8 hours 57 min ago
    by zman, 9 hours 22 min ago