Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - 11:44am

Watching the metals battle horizontal and MA resistance made me think of our theme song at the old "Watchtower" site. Clearly, it still applies today.

Video unavailable

So, where are we on this fine Friday? Well, first of all, those we're some perfect and beautiful FUBMs yesterday. And don't let the silly name throw you. The FUBM is an extremely powerful and important chart formation. Why? It shows that, even though The Cartels would like to rig prices lower, they are unable to do so because of strong demand for both paper and physical at the discounted/rigged prices. We saw a bunch of FUBMs back in early 2011, when prices were preparing to stage their massive rallies. Here are just a few examples:

  • (12/29/10)
  • (1/26/11)
  • (2/3/11)
  • (2/16/11)
  • Do yesterday's FUBMs signal that a similar move is coming over the horizon? We'll see, I guess.

    Another bit of circumstantial evidence of the impending rally comes from the sales of ASEs out of the U.S. Mint. The biggest January on record was January of 2011 with sales of 6.4MM ounces. Yesterday, as we crossed the 6MM mark on just the 17th of the month, The Mint suddenly "suspended sales" through at least the 28th. ( This looks and smells pretty fishy to me. Are they trying to mask and conceal demand OR are they simply out of metal? Actually, who cares?? Either situation is extremely bullish for silver. Since silver has proven to be a rare "Giffen Good" where demand actually increases as price increases, this overwhelming investment demand is just another, very strong indicator of future price.

    But if the U.S. mint is having so much trouble finding silver that they have to suspend sales, how on earth can the SLV find and secure 18.4MM ounces (572 metric tonnes) in just one day?? ( Pretty amazing, huh? Let's see, you can only load and transfer about one tonne at a time, maybe two if your truck is big enough. But the logistical magicians in the Custodial Department of JPM are able to transfer 300 truckloads in a day. Wow! No wonder they make the big bucks!

    Even more amazing is the fact that this (alleged) addition brings the new silver added to SLV up to 650 metric tonnes, year-to date. On 1/2/13, the total tonnes in trust were 10,085. As of last night, the number was 10,735. That's an increase of 6.44%.

    More amazing still is the fact that these (alleged) additions have taken place while the GLD has seen a huge drawdown. On 1/2/13, the total gold held in the GLD was 1348.92 tonnes. As of last night, it was down to 1332.61. That's a drop of 16.31 tonnes or 1.21% in just the past two weeks. So, silver is magically appearing while gold is disappearing. Hmmmm. What do you make of that? The most obvious answer is that it's all just a big charade and scam, but, what do I know? Who am I to question something that seems so obvious? I'm sure that everything is completely on the up-and-up. That JPM is custodian for SLV and HSBC does the same for GLD only inspires confidence, right? Right???

    Back to silver, a Turdite named "Ballyale" graciously shared with us an interesting, if anecdotal, tale last week regarding his interactions with Apple and their production delays in producing Imacs, etc. Ballyale speculated that these delays were due to the current scarcity of available silver (though it's clear that plenty is available for the SLV). The good guys over at SilverDoctors took the story and ran with it, today producing a post that neatly sums it all up. I encourage you to read this thoroughly.

    And this is fun. Jeff Nielson at BullionBullsCanada has written another excellent and well thought-out piece on silver manipulation and he discusses it in the context of platinum which, as you know, we are currently watching very closely here at TFMR. (Retreating from its fourth attempt at $1700 as I type.) Please read this article and support Jeff's site. He's a good dude and he works very hard, trying to expose and publicize the manipulation.

    Then there's this. On Wednesday I received an email from a longtime Turdite. I found it so alarming that I immediately wrote him back to ask if I could share it with the entire community. Thankfully, he obliged. Presented below without comment. Please give your full consideration to this, too.

    Thank you again for your dedicated service. I'm a daily reader and a big fan.
    I wanted to take a minute and share with you a very scary experience I had yesterday (Jan 15). I keep a portion of my rock collection at JP Morgan Chase in safety deposit boxes. This has been my bank since I moved to this town, I have had these boxes for nearly 10 years. Several years ago I was given 2 of them for "free" as a thank you for the various accounts I had with this branch. There seems to be quite a bit of turnover at the retail level and the branch manager that gave me these boxes left 2 years ago. I have been to the bank many, many times since then and got to know the new people to a lesser degree than the previous manager. I confirmed with the new manager that the same arrangement was in place, she agreed.
    Yesterday I went to my JP Morgan Chase branch to make a deposit and touch my collection as I often do. The teller looked puzzled and said "We've been looking for you!". My address hasn't changed, my phone number hasn't changed and they volume of junk mail/account statements sent by them hasn't changed. "We've been sending you letters for the last year about your boxes, they are going to be drilled on 1/31 with the contents sent to the State of *******. Once they go to The State, it can take up to 2 years to get your property back after you pay the levies, fines and fees". Needless to say, the blood ran out of my face. The teller explained to me that my payments were past due for the boxes and it was their policy to drill the boxes and send the contents to The State after a year. Needless to say, I stopped caring about the deposit and began moving the contents. She assured me that she would wipe the issue clean and we'd be fine so I wouldn't have to move anything. Yeah right, my pockets and quickly emptied briefcase nearly gave out as I left 20 minutes later.
    How is it that I 5 pieces of mail from The Morgue each week but not these critical pieces? How is it they'd just drill the lock and send the contents away (probably in the trunks of their cars to their homes) when my phone number and address is the same as it's been? Why would they not just call me? Maybe just debit my account which they do for the other boxes and nonsense? I know most of these people by first name and they know me the same. I often see these people at Starbucks and the grocery and we exchange handshakes and pleasantries. Nice.
    I thought that some of the collection in The Morgue wasn't a bad idea for diversification's sake and that they're probably the last to go as an organization so it was safer there. Wrong!
    Here is just another example of why not to trust banks and why not to let phyzz out of your control.
    Keep doing what you're doing and we'll keep stacking and thanking you for your sound guidance daily.

    Next, Jim Quinn has a great, new piece that you should be sure to read over the weekend:

    And, finally, the charts. I'm delighted to report that both gold and silver look terrific on their respective dailies. Yesterday's failed raids only made them look better in that both metals were able to paint bullish, engulfing candles, too.

    Today, both metals are dealing with horizontal AND moving average resistance (silver 50-day is $32.03 and gold is $1697) and this has momentarily stalled the advance. Additionally, we've got a 3-day weekend ahead here in the U.S. and that usually means that there are more sellers than buyers hanging around. That's OK. I'm confident that we'll put these levels behind us early next week and then we'll move on to The Big Test. This event, subsequently known as "TBT", will set the stage for the rest of the spring. IF the meals can pass this test...meaning IF the metals can break resistance and get above all of their respective moving averages...the stage will be set for a very strong rally. Could it be a repeat of 2011? Possibly. Many of the same conditions exist (ongoing QE, tight supply, strong demand, etc). All I know is that nothing happens until and unless the metals pass TBT. For now, sit tight and watch. Get ready for some fireworks and unnerving volatility. But, be optimistic for there is much to be excited about.

    OK, that's all for now. Please be sure to check back later as I will be releasing a special and very important podcast dealing with the German Gold story. I'll also have some thoughts on this week's CoT, once it's released at 3:30 EST.

    Have a great day and a relaxing weekend. Get ready for next week and the start of TBT.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:47am

    1 .... awwwwh bummmer

    thought I'd get it for once in my life. but #2 is good, too!!

    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:49am

    Weekend Thread

    In the spirit of the Turd, I submit for your pleasure:

    Alabama Shakes - Hold On (Official Video)
    AuStan Dard
    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:52am


    ten, I's'pose :-) Have a great weekend Turd and all Turdites.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:53am

    Had BofA safe deposit box

    Luckily, the CA drilling story came out and I moved my stuff to a small bank (one location) a few blocks from my house before BAC could steal it.

    Mr. Fix
    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:56am

    Are we there yet?

    Just kidding.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:59am

    Removed comment

    Removed comment.

    Bill of Rights
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:02pm

    New York Sheriffs Fight

    New York Sheriffs Fight Back

    “Nobody from the Schoharie sheriff’s department is going to be taking any weapons away from anyone unless they have committed a crime,” Desmond said. “An average law-abiding citizen is not going to have to worry about the sheriff’s department coming to take their weapon or arresting them for having a weapon.”
    “We don’t have the time to run around and tell everybody to bring their long weapons in to register them,” he said. “We’re just barely keeping up with the pistol permits we have now.”
    Bongo Jim
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:03pm
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:06pm

    Silver shortages . . .

    Repost from previous thread:

    Ted Butler, whom I have read for 10 years, has predicted that an industrial shortage is what will stop the COMEX (paper) silver manipulations. The article about Apple production snafu being a silver dearth may well be true. The article is a couple weeks old, and now U.S. Mint halts production (again) for a couple more weeks. Ted has said over and over that when the paper shackles come off silver, prices will astound even the most ardent silver bugs.

    I have also read FOFOA for a few years now. He comes across as a normal everyday guy who happened to stumble on Another's writings from late 1990's. As I read his stuff, I came to think that he is actually a double-edged sword of sorts. His theory supports buying physical gold but shunning silver. I came to believe that he is a banker "plant" who would do no harm to bankers by directing people toward gold, as they had that proclivity already. His main banker-inspired job was and is to direct people away from silver. Because silver truly is the Achille's Heel of the fiat, fractional reserve banking system.

    Because silver is (as is gold) a Giffen good, people ignore it, except when its price rises--then, investment demand can overwhelm ability to meet it--as now.

    It is my firm belief that the PM ETFs (SLV and GLD) were created to help the bankers defer the direct demand for physical gold and silver into another paper ploy. It allowed the bankers to absorb tremendous Giffen good (silver and gold) demand and use those dollars against the PM investor, and to corral physical gold and silver for another go-round in the paper markets. They even use the inventories of SLV and GLD as sources of supply! That is how blatant their manipulations are.

    The SLV and GLD, I'm sure, has stockpiled physical gold and silver over the years. These vehicles allowed the bankers to meet PM demand by dealing another round of paper, and (as JPM is custodian for SLV, HSBC for GLD) allowing them to control the huge piles of gold and silver put together with the dollars garnered from gullible PM investors, who did not understand the paper ruse going on.

    Now, it appears those ETF stockpiles are the last line of defense. They are being drained down, but still under cover of paper. When the last ounces are gone, and the ETFs are closed down, and the COMEX halts PM trading, it will be the greedy speculators who are blamed.

    Anyone who has shares in these vehicles at this late stage had best liquidate and get their proceeds into the physical while the opportunity exists, which may not be for much longer.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:08pm

    A little Friday Humor

    Video unavailable
    Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

    10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
    10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
    10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
    10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

    Subscribe or login to read all comments.


    Donate Shop

    Get Your Subscriber Benefits

    Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

    Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

    10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
    10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
    10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
    10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

    Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

    10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
    10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
    10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
    10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
    10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
    10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

    Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

    10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
    10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
    10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
    10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
    10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
    10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

    9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
    10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
    10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
    10/2 China Golden Week Begins
    10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
    10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
    10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
    10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
    10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
    10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

    9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
    9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
    9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
    9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

    9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
    9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
    9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
    9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
    9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

    9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
    9/11 8:30 ET PPI
    9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
    9/12 8:30 ET CPI
    9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
    9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

    9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
    9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
    9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
    9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
    9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
    9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
    9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

    8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
    8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
    8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
    8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
    8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
    8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

    8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
    8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
    8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
    8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
    8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

    Forum Discussion

    by NW VIEW, 58 min 28 sec ago
    by sierra skier, 9 hours 16 min ago
    by NW VIEW, 9 hours 19 min ago
    by Trail Trekker, 10 hours 38 min ago