Fri, Jan 18, 2013 - 11:44am

Watching the metals battle horizontal and MA resistance made me think of our theme song at the old "Watchtower" site. Clearly, it still applies today.

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So, where are we on this fine Friday? Well, first of all, those we're some perfect and beautiful FUBMs yesterday. And don't let the silly name throw you. The FUBM is an extremely powerful and important chart formation. Why? It shows that, even though The Cartels would like to rig prices lower, they are unable to do so because of strong demand for both paper and physical at the discounted/rigged prices. We saw a bunch of FUBMs back in early 2011, when prices were preparing to stage their massive rallies. Here are just a few examples:

  • (12/29/10)
  • (1/26/11)
  • (2/3/11)
  • (2/16/11)
  • Do yesterday's FUBMs signal that a similar move is coming over the horizon? We'll see, I guess.

    Another bit of circumstantial evidence of the impending rally comes from the sales of ASEs out of the U.S. Mint. The biggest January on record was January of 2011 with sales of 6.4MM ounces. Yesterday, as we crossed the 6MM mark on just the 17th of the month, The Mint suddenly "suspended sales" through at least the 28th. ( This looks and smells pretty fishy to me. Are they trying to mask and conceal demand OR are they simply out of metal? Actually, who cares?? Either situation is extremely bullish for silver. Since silver has proven to be a rare "Giffen Good" where demand actually increases as price increases, this overwhelming investment demand is just another, very strong indicator of future price.

    But if the U.S. mint is having so much trouble finding silver that they have to suspend sales, how on earth can the SLV find and secure 18.4MM ounces (572 metric tonnes) in just one day?? ( Pretty amazing, huh? Let's see, you can only load and transfer about one tonne at a time, maybe two if your truck is big enough. But the logistical magicians in the Custodial Department of JPM are able to transfer 300 truckloads in a day. Wow! No wonder they make the big bucks!

    Even more amazing is the fact that this (alleged) addition brings the new silver added to SLV up to 650 metric tonnes, year-to date. On 1/2/13, the total tonnes in trust were 10,085. As of last night, the number was 10,735. That's an increase of 6.44%.

    More amazing still is the fact that these (alleged) additions have taken place while the GLD has seen a huge drawdown. On 1/2/13, the total gold held in the GLD was 1348.92 tonnes. As of last night, it was down to 1332.61. That's a drop of 16.31 tonnes or 1.21% in just the past two weeks. So, silver is magically appearing while gold is disappearing. Hmmmm. What do you make of that? The most obvious answer is that it's all just a big charade and scam, but, what do I know? Who am I to question something that seems so obvious? I'm sure that everything is completely on the up-and-up. That JPM is custodian for SLV and HSBC does the same for GLD only inspires confidence, right? Right???

    Back to silver, a Turdite named "Ballyale" graciously shared with us an interesting, if anecdotal, tale last week regarding his interactions with Apple and their production delays in producing Imacs, etc. Ballyale speculated that these delays were due to the current scarcity of available silver (though it's clear that plenty is available for the SLV). The good guys over at SilverDoctors took the story and ran with it, today producing a post that neatly sums it all up. I encourage you to read this thoroughly.

    And this is fun. Jeff Nielson at BullionBullsCanada has written another excellent and well thought-out piece on silver manipulation and he discusses it in the context of platinum which, as you know, we are currently watching very closely here at TFMR. (Retreating from its fourth attempt at $1700 as I type.) Please read this article and support Jeff's site. He's a good dude and he works very hard, trying to expose and publicize the manipulation.

    Then there's this. On Wednesday I received an email from a longtime Turdite. I found it so alarming that I immediately wrote him back to ask if I could share it with the entire community. Thankfully, he obliged. Presented below without comment. Please give your full consideration to this, too.

    Thank you again for your dedicated service. I'm a daily reader and a big fan.
    I wanted to take a minute and share with you a very scary experience I had yesterday (Jan 15). I keep a portion of my rock collection at JP Morgan Chase in safety deposit boxes. This has been my bank since I moved to this town, I have had these boxes for nearly 10 years. Several years ago I was given 2 of them for "free" as a thank you for the various accounts I had with this branch. There seems to be quite a bit of turnover at the retail level and the branch manager that gave me these boxes left 2 years ago. I have been to the bank many, many times since then and got to know the new people to a lesser degree than the previous manager. I confirmed with the new manager that the same arrangement was in place, she agreed.
    Yesterday I went to my JP Morgan Chase branch to make a deposit and touch my collection as I often do. The teller looked puzzled and said "We've been looking for you!". My address hasn't changed, my phone number hasn't changed and they volume of junk mail/account statements sent by them hasn't changed. "We've been sending you letters for the last year about your boxes, they are going to be drilled on 1/31 with the contents sent to the State of *******. Once they go to The State, it can take up to 2 years to get your property back after you pay the levies, fines and fees". Needless to say, the blood ran out of my face. The teller explained to me that my payments were past due for the boxes and it was their policy to drill the boxes and send the contents to The State after a year. Needless to say, I stopped caring about the deposit and began moving the contents. She assured me that she would wipe the issue clean and we'd be fine so I wouldn't have to move anything. Yeah right, my pockets and quickly emptied briefcase nearly gave out as I left 20 minutes later.
    How is it that I 5 pieces of mail from The Morgue each week but not these critical pieces? How is it they'd just drill the lock and send the contents away (probably in the trunks of their cars to their homes) when my phone number and address is the same as it's been? Why would they not just call me? Maybe just debit my account which they do for the other boxes and nonsense? I know most of these people by first name and they know me the same. I often see these people at Starbucks and the grocery and we exchange handshakes and pleasantries. Nice.
    I thought that some of the collection in The Morgue wasn't a bad idea for diversification's sake and that they're probably the last to go as an organization so it was safer there. Wrong!
    Here is just another example of why not to trust banks and why not to let phyzz out of your control.
    Keep doing what you're doing and we'll keep stacking and thanking you for your sound guidance daily.

    Next, Jim Quinn has a great, new piece that you should be sure to read over the weekend:

    And, finally, the charts. I'm delighted to report that both gold and silver look terrific on their respective dailies. Yesterday's failed raids only made them look better in that both metals were able to paint bullish, engulfing candles, too.

    Today, both metals are dealing with horizontal AND moving average resistance (silver 50-day is $32.03 and gold is $1697) and this has momentarily stalled the advance. Additionally, we've got a 3-day weekend ahead here in the U.S. and that usually means that there are more sellers than buyers hanging around. That's OK. I'm confident that we'll put these levels behind us early next week and then we'll move on to The Big Test. This event, subsequently known as "TBT", will set the stage for the rest of the spring. IF the meals can pass this test...meaning IF the metals can break resistance and get above all of their respective moving averages...the stage will be set for a very strong rally. Could it be a repeat of 2011? Possibly. Many of the same conditions exist (ongoing QE, tight supply, strong demand, etc). All I know is that nothing happens until and unless the metals pass TBT. For now, sit tight and watch. Get ready for some fireworks and unnerving volatility. But, be optimistic for there is much to be excited about.

    OK, that's all for now. Please be sure to check back later as I will be releasing a special and very important podcast dealing with the German Gold story. I'll also have some thoughts on this week's CoT, once it's released at 3:30 EST.

    Have a great day and a relaxing weekend. Get ready for next week and the start of TBT.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:47am

    1 .... awwwwh bummmer

    thought I'd get it for once in my life. but #2 is good, too!!

    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:49am

    Weekend Thread

    In the spirit of the Turd, I submit for your pleasure:

    AuStan Dard
    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:52am


    ten, I's'pose :-) Have a great weekend Turd and all Turdites.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:53am

    Had BofA safe deposit box

    Luckily, the CA drilling story came out and I moved my stuff to a small bank (one location) a few blocks from my house before BAC could steal it. 

    Mr. Fix
    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:56am

    Are we there yet?

     Just kidding.wink

    Jan 18, 2013 - 11:59am

    Removed comment

    Removed comment.

    Bill of Rights
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:02pm

    New York Sheriffs Fight

     New York Sheriffs Fight Back

    “Nobody from the Schoharie sheriff’s department is going to be taking any weapons away from anyone unless they have committed a crime,” Desmond said. “An average law-abiding citizen is not going to have to worry about the sheriff’s department coming to take their weapon or arresting them for having a weapon.”
    “We don’t have the time to run around and tell everybody to bring their long weapons in to register them,” he said. “We’re just barely keeping up with the pistol permits we have now.”
    Bongo Jim
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:03pm
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:06pm

    Silver shortages . . .

    Repost from previous thread:

    Ted Butler, whom I have read for 10 years, has predicted that an industrial shortage is what will stop the COMEX (paper) silver manipulations. The article about Apple production snafu being a silver dearth may well be true. The article is a couple weeks old, and now U.S. Mint halts production (again) for a couple more weeks. Ted has said over and over that when the paper shackles come off silver, prices will astound even the most ardent silver bugs.

    I have also read FOFOA for a few years now. He comes across as a normal everyday guy who happened to stumble on Another's writings from late 1990's. As I read his stuff, I came to think that he is actually a double-edged sword of sorts. His theory supports buying physical gold but shunning silver. I came to believe that he is a banker "plant" who would do no harm to bankers by directing people toward gold, as they had that proclivity already. His main banker-inspired job was and is to direct people away from silver. Because silver truly is the Achille's Heel of the fiat, fractional reserve banking system.

    Because silver is (as is gold) a Giffen good, people ignore it, except when its price rises--then, investment demand can overwhelm ability to meet it--as now.

    It is my firm belief that the PM ETFs (SLV and GLD) were created to help the bankers defer the direct demand for physical gold and silver into another paper ploy. It allowed the bankers to absorb tremendous Giffen good (silver and gold) demand and use those dollars against the PM investor, and to corral physical gold and silver for another go-round in the paper markets. They even use the inventories of SLV and GLD as sources of supply! That is how blatant their manipulations are.

    The SLV and GLD, I'm sure, has stockpiled physical gold and silver over the years. These vehicles allowed the bankers to meet PM demand by dealing another round of paper, and (as JPM is custodian for SLV, HSBC for GLD) allowing them to control the huge piles of gold and silver put together with the dollars garnered from gullible PM investors, who did not understand the paper ruse going on.

    Now, it appears those ETF stockpiles are the last line of defense. They are being drained down, but still under cover of paper. When the last ounces are gone, and the ETFs are closed down, and the COMEX halts PM trading, it will be the greedy speculators who are blamed.

    Anyone who has shares in these vehicles at this late stage had best liquidate and get their proceeds into the physical while the opportunity exists, which may not be for much longer.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:08pm

    A little Friday Humor

    Video unavailable
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:12pm

    Removed comment

    Removed comment.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:13pm

    Executive Orders . . .

    Obama has 23 new ones related to gun control. One was an expanded background check for people who want to buy a gun.

    There is currently in place a background check. The law says anyone with a violent felony who tries to buy a gun is committing another felony. Last year, 71,000 people tried to buy guns, but their background check (phoned in by store-owner to FBI) came back denied. The FBI sends this info to the Dept. of Justice. Dept. of Justice is supposed to go after these people--they know exactly where they are at that moment in time. Yet, out of 71,000 potential cases, exactly 77 were interdicted and/or prosecuted.

    The government can't, or won't go after the criminals who are trying to buy guns. So, what is the real reason for expanded gun control?

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:15pm

    A long term

    monthly view for those interested.

    How sweet it is...

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:16pm



    Thanks Turd for all you do!

    BTW the Weekly chart of SLV is looking lovely.

    The monthly silver chart even more so. I was hoping for a break of $31.50 this week and if things hold up looks like we got alittle more than that. Will be interesting to hear Trader Dan's take this weekend.

    Bouncing off that longterm line and 62% retracement ain't bad at all!

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:20pm


    BBs are redeeming GLD to make physical allocations to clients. That's the modus operandi. I believe we recently had what qualifies as a 'GLD Puke', indicating the spot price has fallen sufficiently low that physical inventory is being depleted. Another possible bottoming sign.

    That is an absolutely eye-opening story about the JPM boxes. Surprised a Turdite would consider holding his stack in the banking system though. 

    I'm hoping this podcast is with the Jackass :) 

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:22pm
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:22pm

    New Slogan for the Morg

    Drill Baby Drill..........Scary!

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:24pm

    Thanks TF

    So glad for your site.

    I cannot say that is necessarily why I lost my SD box, but is a reason. That is just sick!

    Boy, was someone looking out for that person!. 

    These guys are such crooks that one almost hopes to see them fail. As you rightly pointed out, how in the world ( or rather, the rest of the world) not see this for the the sham it is. If I were in leadership in ANY other country, I would be calling my stuff in TODAY!!!! (

     Of course, as I write that, maybe they are. Certainly, if I knew everything was gone, and that the first guy to receive your stuff gets it, and 100+ people have claims on that same ounce, AND I knew I had alot of it, I would draw mine out slowly, daily.

    Now, if I being a simple, dim-witted man can figure this out, certainly the smart people can too.

    Germany certainly is the shot across the bow, and no doubt are feeling pressure from other CB's who are effectively saying "WAIT" let us get our stuff too!!

    all the best TF


    Mr. Fix
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:25pm

    I'm hoping this podcast is with the Jackass :)

    I second that thought, a little bit of Jackass would be nice today.

     The little snippet released yesterday, seems to imply that Jim Willie thinks we are at the end of the end.

     It is also very interesting.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:27pm

    Removed comment

    Removed comment.

    Bill of Rights
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:28pm
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:28pm

    Funny Letter

    hahaha- worth a good laugh before the weekend. Maybe Germany will have to send one like this to the NY Federal Reserve Bank after getting 'gold' shipments...

    BTW, I want to party with this Mr. Haberny! Can we invite him to Turd-apalooza!?

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:29pm

    Sorry if already posted

    Platinum Market Illustrates Silver Manipulation

    Edit: oops, thanks Bollocks!

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:31pm

    Apple and silver shortage.Just in case you missed. Thanks all.

    Apple and silver shortage.

    Submitted by ballyale on January 18, 2013 - 11:26am. Hat Tip! 5

    While the EE "blythley" go on about their suppression business, Apple and other mfg.s who use silver are slowly starting to panick.

    I think what is happening in China can be boiled down to three reasons for the supposed silver shortage and I should suspect rationing.

    1. The gov't of China itself is stacking as much silver as possible for its massive solar plans and want to hoard that silver in order to dole it out in the future at prices that will allow their domestic solar industry to continue profitably with subsidized silver prices for the next decade or more. they know they have to replace their cancer/lung killing coal fired power plants with new pebble bed nuclear reactors and solar power generators or else face a Dickensian fog of smoke and noxious fumes in all their cities.

    2. Manufacturing. Since the solar "10 year plan" is taking up so much silver, the Chinese gov't is rationing its silver to its exporting mfg's of silver, e.g. Apple. The Chinese are no doubt weighing the cost benefit/loss ratio they learned so well in US Business Schools to assess the b/l ratio regarding exporting it silver via manufacturers vs. current and domestic use in the future.

    3. Domestic demand. China has called upon its citizens to buy gold and silver. Regarding silver esp., it would seem counterproductive to have their citizens buy massive amounts of silver, when it is most urgently needed for solar and industrial usage.

    That is, unless, one looks at the nature of a Communist State. By having their citizens buy all this silver, they are creating a huge above ground silver reserve, far greater than they could possibly match. They know that at any time they can tap into this reserve by requiring the populace to surrender their PM hoards for far below market prices. Also, this reserve is so widely dispersed, it can never be taken away except by the gov't.
    What a scheme! What a scam!


    Well back to my store. The cupboards are bare of any iMacs. Limited consignment of 21.5" that don't fully fulfill Backorders. No 27" iMacs.

    I suspect that Apple will raise prices again by Spring or Summer and that as this silver shortage news starts making the rounds and drift down to end users, the end users will ramp up their "orders" before price hikes start to ripple through the mgf's of silver products. That, of course, will simply build upon itself as consumers and producers start to pile on top of one another.

    I suspect that the Crimex can't stop the undeliverable spot price to going to at least $40/oz by Spring or Summer. That should be the wake up call and the price will accelerate from there.


    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:37pm

    keep stacking all and rejoice

    good things ahead

    Video unavailable

    we do get lucky sometimes thanks Grandpa for educating us back in the day!

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:38pm


    Turd is going to be annoyed that you didn't bother to read his (bloody marvellous, if I may say so) post first.

    edit: PS:

    No pie for you today.

    Dawg ancientmoney
    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:41pm

    Firearm Background Checks

    ancietntmoney is absolutely correct. I was in the business and NEVER had an ATF follow up on a denied 4473. We only submit 4473'a that are completed in a way that should be approved, no "wrong" answers, or we would "store deny" a bad form.


    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:41pm


    If Turd is going to be annoyed that I posted before reading his post, then he must hate the first ten comments on a daily basis.blush

    But yes, it is an excellent post. And there I was all excited that I had unearthed such a great article before anyone else.

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:43pm


    I really like and appreciate the charts you and some others post here.

    Thanks! yes

    Jan 18, 2013 - 12:45pm


    "If Turd is going to be annoyed that I posted before reading his post, then he must hate the first ten comments on a daily basis"

    I added this later..

    Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


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