A Glorious FUBM

335
Thu, Jan 17, 2013 - 11:50am

Well, that was fun, wasn't it?

Once again, there sure is a lot to talk about today. I was just about ready to start typing about an hour ago and then this FUBM developed and ruined all my pretty charts. Shucks. That's OK, though. I'll take it. And for those neo-Turdites out there wondering what the heck "FUBM" means, please consult the Turdisms page for an explanation: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/glossary

Now, before we get started, we need to re-visit yesterday. Ole Turd got quite a bit of pub with his "German Gold Hijinx" post and the last 24 hours has brought all kinds of howling over the 8-year, German repatriation schedule. No sense in going through it all again but here's a reprint of the most important paragraphs. Please give this your full consideration:

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:
In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.

  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL015...) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_...)

OK, back to today. Lots and lots to cover but very little time as it is already 11:10 EST as I type. Sorry if this seems scatter-shot but here you go.

First of all, the raid and the FUBM. Andy and The Army were all over this, well before it happened. He was expecting an "algo-gamed" dip on the claims data and he got it. He then expected large physical allocations on the drop in price because there were central bank orders waiting to be filled on a dip. He got that, too. As these allocations became clear at the PM fix, bullion banks were forced to buy paper and UP she went. And here we are. In silver, the FUBM was even more pronounced since it began from a level that was just below a bevy of buy-stops that we'd suspected all week were in place just above $31.55-31.60. All in all, a very fun morning.

Here are the updated 8-hour charts for gold and silver. Note that both metals continue to trend off of the bottoms made in late December and on 1/3 - 1/4. This is some very nice action here. Let's look to consolidate these gains a bit and then move a little higher. The next, main tests will be 1690-95 and 32.00-32.20. Maybe tomorrow? Monday?

Helping to push things along has been a further rise in crude. Having moved through $94, IF it can hang tough here, it will likely begin a move toward $98-100.

And platinum continues to look strong. It has had some trouble with the $1700 level all week but it doesn't appear to be giving up. Watch this metal closely over the next few days. A burst of strength through $1700 will undoubtedly help supply some extra bids for gold and silver.

Keep an eye on the Yen, too. Hard to predict the ultimate bottom of this historic decline but it sure doesn't look like it's over yet. Additionally, soon other CBs may have to devalue even more in order to "keep up" with the BoJ and the race to the bottom will accelerate.

"While the dog returns to his vomit, the sow remains in her mire"...

And here's something else that has been overlooked. On 1/2/13, the total alleged inventory of gold at the GLD was 1349.92 metric tonnes. As of last night, it was 1334.42 metric tonnes. Hmmmm. Where on earth do you suppose this 15.5 metric tonnes of gold went? I mean, shit, Germany has to wait eight freaking years to get just a little bit of their gold back from France the the U.S. but 15.5 mts can be systematically yanked from the GLD and no one bats an eye...even while price has been rallying. Remarkable.

Finally, you've got to check this link from ZH. It discusses the fallacy of BLS seasonal adjustments. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/chart-day-housing-starts-adjusted-vs-unadjusted These charts, ripped from the post, tell you all you need to know about MOPE and SPIN and how hopelessly f'd up and manipulated our entire financial system has become. Try not to burst out laughing as I did but don't don't feel badly if you do...

As I close, I see that demand for paper metal continues in New York and price is beginning to extend higher once again. This is, of course, very nice to see and bodes well for the short-term. Have a great day!

TF

1:45 pm EST UPDATE:

A late session surge in gold was finally enough to make Blythe shout "GENUG!" and bring to a halt the rally for today. Note that price stopped right at:

  • Expected resistance near $1695 &
  • The usual Cartel Cap of a 1% daily gain

For now, let's just continue to hold and consolidate before we make a concerted run on $1695 and $32.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  335 Comments

beardeus
Jan 17, 2013 - 12:53pm

@ StackaSarus

Those are some weird conversations with your niece!

Byzantium
Jan 17, 2013 - 12:56pm

@ Achmachat re GSR

If the historic GSR resistance points are 16 and 30, then savvy 'big boy' investors, with millions of physical ounces, might convert at 17 and 31, thereby ending the GSR advance right there. So us little guys ought to target 18 and 32, so we don't miss the boat. This could be the decision of our lives!

Far too important to leave it to one conversion batch; I'll be operating within the ranges I outlined before, give or take.

Make your plans people; it'll be too late to leave it till then, things will be happening too fast.


Jan 17, 2013 - 12:56pm
Bongo Jim
Jan 17, 2013 - 12:58pm

Don't worry, it's all going to be o.k....

in a couple of years. According to Porter Stansberry - the oil shale , tar sands, LNG and bitumen in the U.S./Canada is going to kick off an economic extravaganza by 2016. No need to worry about peak oil. Sorry if this is OT Mr. F, but this guys email/video presentation has been making the rounds lately. I commented on it a couple of weeks ago, trying to get others thoughts, but no one added to it. I received another email from ol' PS this a.m. and am wondering if SRS (or anyone else) has any comment on his claims.

Edit: Sorry forgot to add a link to said presentation...

https://pro.stansberryresearch.com/1210THIRDLIA/LPSINB73/


Jan 17, 2013 - 12:58pm

I thought the Kipling reference was beautiful...

... yet I don't get any love.

Tough crowd.

Save_America1st
Jan 17, 2013 - 12:59pm

9am

so what's the deal about 9am today? Since 9am the EUR is up, the USD is up, silver is up, gold is up, oil is up...WTF is gong on? I thought there was at least supposed to be some counterbalance here between the PM's and the dollar...how are all of these going up at the same time? Feels kinda squatchy to me...

Groaner
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:02pm

wow a 10,000 contract spike in gold!

shorts are running for their lives now!

Byzantium
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:02pm

We love ya Turd

Not in a gay way.... just a, you know, a CIGA way! (Comrades in 'Golden' Arms)


Jan 17, 2013 - 1:03pm

This WLL happen eventually

And it will be extraordinarily inflationary, just like the platinum coin idea would have been.

https://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-reprice-gold-to-address-debt-ceiling-2013-1?0=moneygame

The difference is...these arguments are about voluntary actions. When the price of gold is forcibly reset, the attendant inflation will be disastrous for all users of fiat.

TheRationalist
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:03pm

My Son Asked Me Today

What's a hypothesis?

I said a mental construct that must be tested sufficiently in order to establish proof.

I didn't tell him about hypothecation and rehypothecation since they are no more than fleeting derivatives of a genuine word.

These transitory terms refer to mental constructs that must not by definition be tested sufficiently or they will collapse.

I think Orwell was on to something with language. And he was British.

Groaner
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:04pm

Well that's fun

Keep watching 1695, though.

Byzantium
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:05pm

HUI

I love these major gold & silver up moves, because I don't lose as much on the HUI in a day as I usually do.

Green Lantern
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:06pm

@Bally

The Dutch will be next. They remember the Tulip Bubble and they don't want to get scammed a second time.

Rickards tweeted yesterday that Netherlands now wants it's gold back. But, I read the only two articles I could find that were in Dutch and decided not to post it.

When I translated them, they said they were discussing it but one of the articles said that they couldn't trust their own Central Bank and to date have had no problems with foreign Central Banks holding their gold. Nothing in English news today. Don't feel like translating Dutch to see if there is an update.

In other news, 35 Hostages dead in Algeria including two american.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother TF
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:06pm

re: kipling reference

with this crowd (me anyway) your animal house references take hold much quicker. :)

Groaner TF
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:14pm

I have 1695 at the top of the channel too and its backing off

If it can break above that and hold it, will run some more I imagine. Silver did not get the pop like gold just did. Or not quite as big.

Sneakdoggiedog
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:16pm

LOL at FUBM

I never knew that Turd had a glossary! It is sooooo much better when you have to Google FUBM (like I did months ago) and find out it is in the Urban Dictionary referencing Turd's web work!!!! At that point, I was sure he was a Rock Star!

Bollocks
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:20pm

In other news, here's some Insanity...


Franz Kline (1910-1962)

Untitled

Sold for $40,402,500

signed twice and dated twice 'FRANZ KLINE '57' (on the reverse)

oil on canvas

79 x 110 3/8 in. (200.7 x 280.4 cm.)

------

Well, at least he signed and dated it twice. That makes up for it ... .

Byzantium
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:24pm

@ Bollocks, re picture

I see a man on a bridge, shooting at fish.


Jan 17, 2013 - 1:26pm

More on the Yen

As speculated in this post, breaking down to new lows...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/boj-joins-ecb-and-fed-unlimited-print-train

5-minute chart:

Hourly chart:

Just in time for another, bullshit SNB rumor??

Bongo Jim
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:29pm

Franz Kline Painting

Is it the new TF Metals Rorschach test? What you see could tell us all about your PM personality.

robov billwilson
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:30pm

@miners

I agree, this bullshit with the miners is really a test of ones resolve. What the hell is it gonna take for these frikkin' miners to catch a break. Gold & silver even on up days last week or two just can't catch a break.

Xeno
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:31pm

Franz Kline

Boll, in that painting I see an abandoned car on a bridge, another bridge, a building falling, a guy standing up to the grim reaper, and oh yeah... a nice FUBM!

No rocket launch though, just engines getting warmed up. Rocket launches at former highs. But that's one powerful rocket engine so just the warm up will be a sight. Be sure to be in your bunker when it ignites

Bollocks
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:33pm

@Byzantium

"I see a man on a bridge, shooting at fish."
So it was you that bought it then?

Xeno
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:34pm

Repeg

So when will the JPY change pegs and peg to the Yuan?

ag1969
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:38pm

Puck

Just received my 30 Franklin Halves from Provident, and I lucked out with a really nice batch this time around. 4 of them look brand new. Still shiny and IMHO would pass as uncirculated. Of the other 26 not one is even close to worn out. Dates perfectly visible on all. Hats off to the bearing company again, thank you for not sending me junk....oh wait....shit!

Dagney Taggart
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:39pm

Absolutely Beautiful Day Here...

Think I'll go skiing tomorrow. And since I know Turd likes them.....

U2 - Beautiful Day

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUBM.

Oh and a tip for my American slave friends since your government has gone full retard (:

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/255818/

Turn in Assault weapon, get a tax break. So duct tape a steak knife (edit) bayonet to this little friend.......

Silly politicians. Did they not see this coming?

Bollocks
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:42pm

@Silverman

Never waste a subject line.

It should say: "FARAGE!!!"

Thank you.

Silverman
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:43pm

Farage

Nigel Farage: Democracy and Self-Government now Staging a Fightback

Jan 17, 2013 - 1:44pm

Please check the update.

Please check the update.

ag1969
Jan 17, 2013 - 1:45pm

FARAGE!!!!!

Absolutely correct Bollocks, that rule is in the book. Rule 17-3 subsection A: FARAGE!!!

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