German Gold Hijinx

Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - 11:54am

I guess it all depends on how you look at it. Either this is all on the up-and-up or it isn't. Either this is a purely political show or it isn't. Either the gold is really there to be repatriated or it isn't. It's up to you to decide.

Just three months ago, The Bundesbank labeled as "lunacy" the idea that German gold needed to be brought home. They announce today that they're doing it anyway, but in sizes nowhere near what had been speculated. Is this just a political trick to mollify the German hoi polloi? Probably. It certainly doesn't upset the status quo or shake the global banking system in the manner we'd all hoped.

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:

  • In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.
  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? (

Ahhhhhh....what do I know? I'm just a Turd. A dope with a MacBook. I'm sure it's all just fine. Move along. Nothing to see here. All is well. Go back to sleep.

Anyway, it has been a few days so we need to update the charts. Let's start with gold. Take a look at these two, daily charts. You can clearly see the price double bottom. This also coincides with an open interest bottom in late December. In the big picture, me likes what me sees.

Now check out this 8-hour chart. Besides all of the horizontal and diagonal resistance lines I've drawn, gold will likley run into some tough sledding near the 50 and 100-day MAs. The fifty for the Feb13 contract is currently near $1697 and the 100 is near $1718. Taking it all into consideration, the "all clear" for a rally can't truly be sounded until gold gets up and through about $1710-1715, maybe in a week or two. Until then, I just plan to keep stacking physical. I'm not going to buy any more options just yet.

As you might expect, silver has a somewhat similar picture. It came down in late December and then double-bottomed just below $30 about two weeks ago. Since then, it has seen a steady progression higher. Now it just needs to follow through. It is finding resistance near the highs of 1/2/13 (31.50) and it needs to break that level to draw in more buyers. Once through there, expect slowdowns near the 50-day, currently at $32.01, and the 100-day near $32.60.

That's all for today. I need to go take a little boat ride with all my guns and ammunition. It'll probably take most of the day. More tomorrow...


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 16, 2013 - 3:44pm

Java problem

I'm told "it's a Java exploit called Zero Day and Oracle is not doing much about it. Problem exists in Java 7." Nasty virus hack.

AuStan Dardpourty
Jan 16, 2013 - 3:46pm

Au makes good contacts

because it practically does not corrode (silver much more so). this is why many contacts of computer chips, cables, USB sticks et al. have a golden surface layer... somewhere I read that each year about 300 metric tonnes of Au are used for industrial purposes (e.g. air plane windows too). anyway, added more Ag (and a little Au) to our family stack this week. my little girls will hopefully greatly profit from that one day. CHeers AD

Jan 16, 2013 - 3:51pm
Jan 16, 2013 - 3:57pm

Another Way to stack…

…this past Saturday at the local Goodwill this little box caught my eye.

It was pretty dirty, but for a measly $1.00 I thought it was worth the risk.

Took some time to clean it thoroughly.

Thought I don't have any chemical way to assay it, I'm about 90% sure it's solid silver. Definitely the right color (matches ASE's set inside of it), rings like silver when it's struck, handmade, tarnish came off when dipped in baking soda / water / aluminum foil bath, and no amount of scratching on unobtrusive areas on the inside comes up with evidence of plating. If it's not silver, it's doing a damned good job of looking like it.

Weighs 92 grams. I figure the colored resin probably takes up a couple of grams at most and I've no idea the purity, but still at the worst I figure I managed to score at least 2.5 troy ounces of silver for a buck - probably closer to 3 ounces.

If you pull the pin the sides open on a hinge and both the top and bottom come off.

I'm a little buzzed about this as I'm always on the lookout for silver when I'm at thrift stores and garage sales but have always come up empty handed.

Keep your eye out at thrift stores, you never know what you'll find.

Jan 16, 2013 - 3:57pm


Haven't read it yet but would it be his lunch was on time and was very good. Much beyond that would be shocking... Can't wait.

Jan 16, 2013 - 4:00pm
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:01pm


Haven't read it yet but would it be his lunch was on time and was very good. Much beyond that would be shocking... Can't wait. (Reply to Bob Pissonme comment).

Second thought: not going to read it.

Jan 16, 2013 - 4:02pm

Santa's message, my take

What Santa is saying, IMHO, is something extremely profound. I'm not saying that I see it, or agree with it; I am just giving my interpretation of what he is saying.

I believe that he is telling us that the Euro system is one in which the participants want gold to carry a fair market value, as the Euro is designed to co-exist with this, rather than live in fear of gold, as the dollar and pound do.

Furthermore, rather than just co-exist with it, to benefit from price appreciation, since gold is a constituent part of the Euro's reserves.

Fofoa was saying much the same thing; do not be surprised by upswings in the price of gold at quarter end, because the ECB balance sheet benefits from this.

Stand back, deep breath, stunned expression; the European Central Bank (the one headed by a Goldman guy) is our ally? WTF? No way Jose!

The implications and questions (and disbelief) are epic, but this is what Santa seems to be alluding to. Not alluding; he is quite explicit about it.

He concludes that Germany had had enough, with the price manipulation which was succeeding to 'break the back' of gold's recovery.

I personally cannot reconcile all the contradictory info in my head on this assertion.

Byzantium out.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:07pm


Congratulations on your find at the thrift store.

Your object looks strikingly similar to a valuable family heirloom that was taken from my home in a break-in last February. It was one of several items held by the Torgerson Family Trust. We recovered the most valuable item (a painting titled "Dove of Peace in Cloud") from Green Lantern after some tense negotiations. Here's a photo of our heirloom that was provided to our insurers.

I'll be contacting you to arrange a safe return.

Seriously, even if it's worth no more than you paid for it, it makes for a great story. If it turns out to be real silver, you've got something to show family and friends and just might get some of them started down the path to knowledge regarding PMs.

Best Wishes.


Jan 16, 2013 - 4:08pm

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