German Gold Hijinx

387
Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - 11:54am

I guess it all depends on how you look at it. Either this is all on the up-and-up or it isn't. Either this is a purely political show or it isn't. Either the gold is really there to be repatriated or it isn't. It's up to you to decide.

Just three months ago, The Bundesbank labeled as "lunacy" the idea that German gold needed to be brought home. They announce today that they're doing it anyway, but in sizes nowhere near what had been speculated. Is this just a political trick to mollify the German hoi polloi? Probably. It certainly doesn't upset the status quo or shake the global banking system in the manner we'd all hoped.

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:

  • In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.
  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

Ahhhhhh....what do I know? I'm just a Turd. A dope with a MacBook. I'm sure it's all just fine. Move along. Nothing to see here. All is well. Go back to sleep.

Anyway, it has been a few days so we need to update the charts. Let's start with gold. Take a look at these two, daily charts. You can clearly see the price double bottom. This also coincides with an open interest bottom in late December. In the big picture, me likes what me sees.

Now check out this 8-hour chart. Besides all of the horizontal and diagonal resistance lines I've drawn, gold will likley run into some tough sledding near the 50 and 100-day MAs. The fifty for the Feb13 contract is currently near $1697 and the 100 is near $1718. Taking it all into consideration, the "all clear" for a rally can't truly be sounded until gold gets up and through about $1710-1715, maybe in a week or two. Until then, I just plan to keep stacking physical. I'm not going to buy any more options just yet.

As you might expect, silver has a somewhat similar picture. It came down in late December and then double-bottomed just below $30 about two weeks ago. Since then, it has seen a steady progression higher. Now it just needs to follow through. It is finding resistance near the highs of 1/2/13 (31.50) and it needs to break that level to draw in more buyers. Once through there, expect slowdowns near the 50-day, currently at $32.01, and the 100-day near $32.60.

That's all for today. I need to go take a little boat ride with all my guns and ammunition. It'll probably take most of the day. More tomorrow...

TF

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  387 Comments

Dyna mo hum
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:39pm

Ferd Torgerson

Now that's funny! You are a fast thinker for show!

tyberious
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:41pm

Greeat stuff

People also need to remember gold is not going down much, because the US doesn’t have enough to sell. The problem is what you sell in the physical market, you have to deliver. At a certain point, the US will run out of other countries gold to sell. The US will reach a point where they have to hope that the gold price doesn’t start to really fly.

There is a strong bid for gold every time it goes down. When the cat gets out of the bag, and I think the Germans are helping the cat get out of the bag, at a certain point when all of the gold moving from West to East is stopped, the price of gold will really begin to ramp up in price.

Where will the gold come from to satisfy the demand? Where will the gold come from to send back to Germany? And do you know what the Chinese will say? They will say, ‘OK, we will let our banks hold the yuan, but in contrast to your dollar, our yuan will be backed by gold.’

What will countries prefer to hold, the yuan, backed by gold, or the US dollar, which is backed by absolutely nothing? So we are now getting to a situation where we are getting close to the end game.”

Leeb also spoke about silver: “Switching gears to silver, we all know there are shenanigans that go on in the silver market. Regardless, China wants to accumulate a great deal of physical silver. China knows silver is a monetary metal.

It’s also important to note that Warren Buffett recently purchased the largest solar project in the world. Well, the Chinese know what Warren Buffett knows, and that is solar is the future. The Chinese are going to need a staggering amount of silver to accomplish this task.

The Chinese know that oil, coal, and other alternatives are becoming much more scarce, and so they are designing the entire country’s energy infrastructure around things like solar. Again, this will require quantities of silver that most likely can’t even be facilitated.

People wonder why are we seeing shortages in the silver market right now? Well, yes, there is investment demand, absolutely. But the Chinese are also in the silver market buying every single ounce they can get their hands on for the energy needs.

So silver is going to levels in the future that investors can’t even fathom today? Silver, next to oil, is the single most important commodity and strategic resource on the planet. I would also add that the quality junior mining shares will eventually enter a mania that will be one for the history books.”

Larry
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:44pm

Puck, re: the lie

Thanks for digging that up that quotable quote - statement made by PM Juncker. If we really listen, even liars tell us they are lying. Jean-Claude's comment was just more obvious than usual.

RaulP
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:45pm

Gold Repatriation

Pardon me if this has been addressed before, but every time I hear about gold repatriation I fail to understand why the said gold was held in USA for the first place? Was there some kind of WWII aftermath that Germany, Netherlands, Venezuela, Mexico, etc were not allowed to hold their gold and had to turn it over to USA? Is US paying them any interest for holding the gold, or are they paying storage fees? Are they getting free dollars from Ben's helicopter in exchange? I mean, what is it? I understand why UK would sell their gold reserves sub $300 :), but so many other nations being out of their minds sounds a bit weird.

Byzantium
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:50pm

Tonight may be the night

TobyDaniel; I couldn't hat tip you because liars do work together; the sophisticated ones are successful because they know that cooperation is the key to fleece the masses. Yes, this is absolutely stated with Central banks in mind.

However, I agree with your other point that silver will get whacked pretty shortly. It is at the breakout zone, and we all get excited, but if this is a dangerous moment for the cartel, then it will get duly whacked, spanked & rodgered.

That's my humble view, & I've cashed in about 10% of my trading portion this week in increments. I hope silver continues to rise, but I'm waiting below with dry powder if it falls sub $29. I know where I want silver to go, but I don't see anything on the horizon to give it the boost that it needs. Somebody suggested the cartel will go sub $29 to trigger the sell stops there. I am positioning now for that, with this hedging position.

.

Late edit: if anybody finds this logic to have merit, then act now while silver is at $31.50; you have time, assuming that you have a Bullionvault or other trading account.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:51pm

@ Bollocks

How very unfortunate that you would besmirch the name of a family with a proud history of honest and fair dealings (well, relatively honest and fair compared to some "families"). Alas, others have done the same from time to time. Rather than pursuing costly and messy legal action, we generally prefer to settle out of court.

I'll send a couple of our family retainers around to collect your payment. These two are members of the "Torgerson Family" but are not per se "family".

Ferd

Byzantium
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:57pm

@ Tyberious

"Where will the gold come from to satisfy the demand? "

Sorry Tyberious if I seem to be stalking you tonight; I like your posts, but I have a response to that very question

So, from where? Jim Willie says they are raiding allocated accounts.

To the extent that they can, there is more gold there than with the central banks. Tungsten fakes will also more likely be successful to deceive such investors, even if they come to visit their gold.

There is also the suspicion that the Vatican has a vast amount of gold, and is helping out.

Jan 16, 2013 - 4:59pm
Hang10-Hawaii
Jan 16, 2013 - 5:04pm

@ rpboxter "no one cares"

@ rpboxter & “no one cares”

I appreciate your position. It's true of Second Amendment issues, fiat currency issues, Fourth Amendment issues, etc.

I’ve tried a bunch of ways to get people engaged in fighting the systematic, designed, incremental destruction of our Bill of Right (not the Turdite by that name, but the actual BoR). I do that for issues relating to sound, Constitutional money, property rights, etc.

It’s very frustrating because I usually have to start at the very beginning since most people educated in the public school system seems to know anything about our Constitution and history.

No wonder Ron Paul looks so worn out.

The most important thing to do is take action. Contribute to the organizations you believe will help if you want to, but the simplest, most effective thing to do is contact your representatives 3 ways (email/web, snail mail, and via phone) and clearly, firmly and respectfully tell them your view and how you expect them to vote to protect your liberties.

I’ve had some traction with this story (but not as much as I’d like):

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Do you recall the story of the American revolution? Do you remember what the primary drivers were?

  • Excessive taxation (w/o representation)
  • Unreasonable searches & seizures of property
  • Limited freedom of speech
  • General overreach by the royals
  • Royal claims against private property (e.g. lumber “those are the king’s trees”)
  • Edicts issued by fiat
  • Etc.

When the people got fed up enough they told the English monarchy to stuff it, and fought them musket vs. musket. If the patriots had been limited to bows and arrows registered with the local British magistrate vs. the Redcoats’ muskets, it would have been a different outcome to be sure.

Compare that to what we have today

  • Excessive taxation (and a representative body with a 9% approval rating)
  • TSA, sobriety checkpoints, warrantless wiretapping, NDAA, FISA, etc.
  • Free speech zones, permits required to hold a rally, no access to your elected officials, etc.
  • Overreach – Obamacare?
  • Eminent domain & property taxes mean forfeiture of your property should the government want it, with the Supreme Court’s blessing
  • Executive orders, Federal Reserve act (fiat money)
  • Etc.

The right to keep and bear arms (aka “assault weapons”) that are roughly equal in capabilities to what a police state has, provides exactly the same deterrent that muskets and field cannon did in 1775. Registration is the prerequisite to confiscation. The Second Amendment was intended to ensure that the delicate balance between a government and its armed populace is maintained. If it’s lost, then the ultimate defense against the government becoming tyrannical is lost.

Keep working to educate people. If FB is a good avenue, then rock on! If a silver dollar gets someone on board, rock on!

goldislocked
Jan 16, 2013 - 5:05pm

Angela phones Ben

BEN: Hello?

ANGELA: Hello, Bennie. How are you?

BEN: Good Angie, what can I do for you?

ANGELA: Bennie, we want our gold back.

BEN: Ummm….what gold?

ANGELA: Don't play games, Bennie. The 1500 tons of Germany's gold you have stored in your basement.

BEN: Oh, that?

ANGELA: Yes, Bennie, that.

BEN: Well, uh, uh, okay, how much do you need?

ANGELA: All of it.

BEN: (Silence)

ANGELA: Ben, Bennie, are you there?

BEN: Yes, Angie. Well, I'll have to take a look….

ANGELA: Don't tell me you're not sure if it's there, Bennie.

BEN: Oh no, Angie…Of course it's there.

ANGELA: Then what's the problem?

BEN: Uh, uh…no problem…it just might take awhile is all.

ANGELA: Awhile for what?

BEN: Well, to count it, get it ready to ship, make sure there's no tung…I mean, make sure the bars are all nice and shiny, you know how long that can take….to shine up all those bars….

ANGELA: No, Bennie, I don't…how long will that take?

BEN: Well, probably not more than a few years…at the outside, I mean.

ANGELA: A few years? A few years!!! What do you mean by a few years??

BEN: Uh, uh, well….uh….ten maybe….at the most!

ANGELA: I'm losing my patience here, Bennie. How much can you lay your hands on right away?

BEN: Ummm…how about, say, uh…oh….I don't know…are you sure you really want to have to worry about it? We promise to take good care of it for you…haven't we always?

ANGELA: Ben!!

BEN: Yes, Angie…

ANGELA: Are you listening to me?

BEN: Of course, Angie. Well, let's see…maybe after this little thing in Mali gets taken care of….

ANGELA: What are you talking about, Bennie?

BEN: Oh…nothing….just thinking out loud. Let's see….how about 50 tons a year, for say….oh, I don't know…the next 8 years or so…..

ANGELA: Bennie, that's nowhere close to all of our gold!

BEN: I realize that, Angie, but by then I'm sure I can come up with another story, uh..idea…I mean...uh...

ANGELA: (CLICK!)

BEN: Angie? Angie??

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