German Gold Hijinx

387
Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - 11:54am

I guess it all depends on how you look at it. Either this is all on the up-and-up or it isn't. Either this is a purely political show or it isn't. Either the gold is really there to be repatriated or it isn't. It's up to you to decide.

Just three months ago, The Bundesbank labeled as "lunacy" the idea that German gold needed to be brought home. They announce today that they're doing it anyway, but in sizes nowhere near what had been speculated. Is this just a political trick to mollify the German hoi polloi? Probably. It certainly doesn't upset the status quo or shake the global banking system in the manner we'd all hoped.

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:

  • In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.
  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

Ahhhhhh....what do I know? I'm just a Turd. A dope with a MacBook. I'm sure it's all just fine. Move along. Nothing to see here. All is well. Go back to sleep.

Anyway, it has been a few days so we need to update the charts. Let's start with gold. Take a look at these two, daily charts. You can clearly see the price double bottom. This also coincides with an open interest bottom in late December. In the big picture, me likes what me sees.

Now check out this 8-hour chart. Besides all of the horizontal and diagonal resistance lines I've drawn, gold will likley run into some tough sledding near the 50 and 100-day MAs. The fifty for the Feb13 contract is currently near $1697 and the 100 is near $1718. Taking it all into consideration, the "all clear" for a rally can't truly be sounded until gold gets up and through about $1710-1715, maybe in a week or two. Until then, I just plan to keep stacking physical. I'm not going to buy any more options just yet.

As you might expect, silver has a somewhat similar picture. It came down in late December and then double-bottomed just below $30 about two weeks ago. Since then, it has seen a steady progression higher. Now it just needs to follow through. It is finding resistance near the highs of 1/2/13 (31.50) and it needs to break that level to draw in more buyers. Once through there, expect slowdowns near the 50-day, currently at $32.01, and the 100-day near $32.60.

That's all for today. I need to go take a little boat ride with all my guns and ammunition. It'll probably take most of the day. More tomorrow...

TF

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  387 Comments

tyberious
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:09pm

Good stuff

Turk: First of all, gold is not an investment.

"It’s money. It’s not an investment because it’s a sterile asset. It doesn’t generate cash flow. It doesn’t have a balance sheet, management team, PE/ratio or anything like that. And in fact, gold doesn’t create wealth. Money doesn’t create wealth until you put it at risk. Money only creates wealth if you invest it or you lend it or you deposit it. But gold itself doesn’t create wealth. Dollars don’t create wealth unless you deposit them in a bank, lend it to somebody, or invest it in securities. It’s the same thing with gold."

SIlverbee
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:13pm

I posted before that

The Euro when first launched was backed by reserves from the member countries which were currency and GOLD.

Don't quite get $31.60 today. Is $0.94 significant?

Also if the buy stops were triggered does it only happen in the market that is open or across all the PM markets?

Patrancus
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:18pm

If you want to play...

you got to be able to pay.

It's real easy, if you don't hold it, you don't own it and you can't play.

Strawboss TF
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:21pm

Turd - is there a link that

Turd - is there a link that shows this information or is there a way to track it on a daily basis so we can track the spread?

Byzantium
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:22pm

Turk, following on

In fact he contradicts himself; he is never shy to mention gold's average 18% gains over 10 yrs. Gains against what? Is it an investment or not, for people paid in fiat, and measuring their portfolios in fiat?

Why keep referring to its 'appreciation' if all it is, is a store of wealth?

Byzantium
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:24pm

@ Tyberious

Turk's assertion that gold is not an investment, is likely rooted in something more banal than high principle.

Goldmoney was banned in the Netherlands as a pension investment vehicle, as the Dutch government decreed that gold was too speculative and risky to constitute a pension investment (!!!!!! stick with the safe bond & stock market bubble instead folks!).

Following that, Turk is going out of his way to stress that gold is not an investment, because he faces legal implications to his business if it is.

rocoach
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:29pm

if it was silver

wouldn't it be stamped with a hallmark somewhere?

BB
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:30pm

31.50

First cracked it at:

1/16/13 19:39 (GMT) 31.51

Highest was:

1/16/13 20:20 (GMT) 31.53

Danced around it for an hour or so and fell back to 31.45 area after that....

Byzantium
Jan 16, 2013 - 4:30pm

Mudshark's trinket

is a corrupting force.

Give it up Mudsharks, or it will turn you into Gollum.

Look what it did to Bollocks, turned him into a little robot. He needed a big Mexican moustache to be able blend in with people.

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