German Gold Hijinx

387
Wed, Jan 16, 2013 - 11:54am

I guess it all depends on how you look at it. Either this is all on the up-and-up or it isn't. Either this is a purely political show or it isn't. Either the gold is really there to be repatriated or it isn't. It's up to you to decide.

Just three months ago, The Bundesbank labeled as "lunacy" the idea that German gold needed to be brought home. They announce today that they're doing it anyway, but in sizes nowhere near what had been speculated. Is this just a political trick to mollify the German hoi polloi? Probably. It certainly doesn't upset the status quo or shake the global banking system in the manner we'd all hoped.

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:

  • In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.
  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

Ahhhhhh....what do I know? I'm just a Turd. A dope with a MacBook. I'm sure it's all just fine. Move along. Nothing to see here. All is well. Go back to sleep.

Anyway, it has been a few days so we need to update the charts. Let's start with gold. Take a look at these two, daily charts. You can clearly see the price double bottom. This also coincides with an open interest bottom in late December. In the big picture, me likes what me sees.

Now check out this 8-hour chart. Besides all of the horizontal and diagonal resistance lines I've drawn, gold will likley run into some tough sledding near the 50 and 100-day MAs. The fifty for the Feb13 contract is currently near $1697 and the 100 is near $1718. Taking it all into consideration, the "all clear" for a rally can't truly be sounded until gold gets up and through about $1710-1715, maybe in a week or two. Until then, I just plan to keep stacking physical. I'm not going to buy any more options just yet.

As you might expect, silver has a somewhat similar picture. It came down in late December and then double-bottomed just below $30 about two weeks ago. Since then, it has seen a steady progression higher. Now it just needs to follow through. It is finding resistance near the highs of 1/2/13 (31.50) and it needs to break that level to draw in more buyers. Once through there, expect slowdowns near the 50-day, currently at $32.01, and the 100-day near $32.60.

That's all for today. I need to go take a little boat ride with all my guns and ammunition. It'll probably take most of the day. More tomorrow...

TF

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  387 Comments

Bollocks
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:11pm

Second!

s'true !

Bollocks
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:15pm
tyberious
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:20pm

Rutoh

China sovereign wealth fund may cut US debt holdings

CIC President Lou Jiwei speaks at the Asian Financial Forum. Photo: Reuters

scmp.com / Agence France-Presse in Shanghai / Tuesday, 15 January, 2013, 4:42pm

China’s sovereign wealth fund, which has more than US$480 billion in assets, could cut holdings of US Treasury Bonds as they are becoming a less attractive investment, state media said on Tuesday.

The Shanghai Securities News quoted Lou Jiwei, chairman of sovereign wealth fund manager China Investment Corporation (CIC), as telling a conference in Hong Kong on Monday that the US economic recovery had made other investments appealing.

China has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves and according to US government figures is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries with US$1.16 trillion at the end of October last year, the latest available statistic.

“In line with the future US economic recovery, the appeal of US debt is weakening,” Lou said. “From a long-term perspective, it is not a good investment target.”

READ MORE

Al Huxley
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:26pm

Nobody cares about gold, or

Nobody cares about gold, or sound money of any kind for that matter - regardless of whether the foolish, 'tradition-bound' Germans want theirs back, or if the US monetizes 85 billion or 850 billion or 8500 billion in debt a month, or if Greece is broke, or Spain, or Italy, none of it matters anymore here in bizarro world. Free money for the banks, endless debt for everybody else, system now openly corrupt for all to see, just ignore it and when the govt tells you inflation is 2% accept it and don't believe your lyin' eyes when you pay the grocery bill or pay for gas.

beardeus
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:26pm

Executive actions

Does Obama's executive action ban anything?

Jan 16, 2013 - 12:29pm

more on Mali from debka

seriously F'd up situation, if accurate...

France in Mali fights the unfinished Libyan War
Al Huxley
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:29pm

@MSM So quick with their reccies

Gold price on the rise: How to invest in bullion

translation- "We're planning to break the price of paper gold again and we'd like some retail volunteers to take the long side of the trade, if you don't mind. Thanks ever so much for being good sports about this."

tyberious
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:32pm
ancientmoney
Jan 16, 2013 - 12:34pm

Chris Powell of GATA said: (in part)

"Venezuela last year managed to repatriate all its gold from the Bank of England in a matter of months, but apparently the Bundesbank will need seven (now eight) years to retrieve only a small fraction of its gold from the New York Fed.

Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele's comment today, defending such a minimal repatriation, seems silly. "If I hold gold in my own vaults, I have to check it myself," Thiele said, according to the Reuters story appended here.

So, Herr Thiele, if you keep it somewhere else you don't have to check it?"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you keep it somewhere else (NY Fed), there is nothing TO check. SOOOOO much easier to account that way.

Jan 16, 2013 - 12:35pm

Must. Not. Allow.

Must.

Not.

Allow.

Silver.

Through.

31.50

Needs a shove. IF we can get it, the tripping of buy-stops should send it toward $32 pretty quickly.

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