This is a Big Deal

166
Mon, Jan 14, 2013 - 11:23pm

For now, it's just a ZeroHedge report, based upon the reporting of the German website, Handelsblatt. The report says that an announcement is due on Wednesday. So I guess we'll know for sure in about 24-36 hours.

Here's the original report:

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/reserven-bundesbank-will-deutsches-gold-zurueckholen/v_detail_tab_print/7629600.html

Though Turd is officially 5/8 German by descent, my working knowledge of the language is limited to danke, bier & lederhosen. Perhaps there's a German or otherwise European Turdite out there who would care to translate the text for the community at large?

ZH also did their own translation and analysis. Below is a link but, since it's so potentially important, I'm going to c&p the entire article, too. I hope that the Tylers don't mind too much.

This "event" could seriously rattle not just the gold market in the next few days. Pay close attention and watch for furter headlines.

TF

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/it-begins-bundesbank-commence-repatriating-gold-new-york-fed

In what could be a watershed moment for the price, provenance, and future of physical gold, not to mention the "stability" of the entire monetary regime based on rock solid, undisputed "faith and credit" in paper money, German Handelsblatt reports in an exclusive that the long suffering German gold, all official 3,396 tons of it, is about to be moved. Specifically, it is about to be partially moved out of the New York Fed, where the majority, or 45% of it is currently stored, as well as the entirety of the 11% of German gold held with the Banque de France, and repatriated back home to Buba in Frankfurt, where just 31% of it is held as of this moment. And while it is one thing for a "crazy, lunatic" dictator such as Hugo Chavez to pull his gold out of the Bank of England, it is something entirely different, and far less dismissible, when the bank with the second most official gold reserves in the world proceeds to formally pull some of its gold from the bank with the most. In brief: this is a momentous development, one which may signify that the regime of mutual assured and very much telegraphed - because if the central banks don't have faith in one another, why should anyone else? - trust in central banks by other central banks is ending.

Much more importantly, it is being telegraphed as such, with Buba fully aware of just what the consequences of this (first partial, and then full; and certainly full vis-a-vis the nouveau socialist regime of Francois Hollande which will soon hold zero German gold) repatriation will be in a global monetary arena, which is already scraping by on the last traces of faith in a monetary system that is slowly but surely dying but first diluting itself to oblivion. And in simple game theory terms, the first party to defect from the prisoner's dilemma of all the bulk of global gold being held by the Fed, defects best. Then the second. Then the third. Until, in this particular case, the last central bank to pull its gold from the NY Fed and the other 2 primary depositories of developed world gold, London and Paris, just happens to discover their gold was never there to begin with, and instead served as collateral to paper gold subsequently rehypothecated several hundred times, and whose ultimate ownership deed is long gone.

It would be very ironic, if the Bundesbank, which many had assumed had bent over backwards to accommodate Mario Draghi's Goldmanesque demands to allow implicit monetization of peripheral nations' debts has just "returned the favor" by launching the greatest physical gold scramble of all time.

From Handelsblatt:

Die Bundesbank hat ein neues Konzept ausgearbeitet, wo sie künftig ihre Goldreserven lagern will. Nach Informationen des Handelsblatts (Dienstausgabe) sieht dieses Konzept, das am kommenden Mittwoch bekanntgegeben werden soll, vor, den heimischen Standort aufzuwerten, in New York dafür weniger Gold zu lagern und überhaupt kein Gold mehr in Paris zu horten.

Derzeit lagert das Gold der Bundesbank ihren Angaben zufolge in New York, London, Paris und Frankfurt. In der amerikanischen Notenbank Fed lagern 45 Prozent der insgesamt 3.396 Tonnen Gold, in der Bank of England in London 13 Prozent, in der Banque de France in Paris elf Prozent und im Hauptsitz in Frankfurt 31 Prozent. Diese Verteilung soll sich nun ändern.

We present it in the original for fear of losing something in translation, but in broad English terms the above reads as follows:

The German Bundesbank is developing a new approach as to where its gold will be stored. According to exclusive information, to be fully announced on Wednesday, the bank will in the future hold less gold in the New York Fed, and no more hold in Paris (Banque de France). As a result, the distribution of German gold, of which 45% is held in New York, 13% in London, 11% in Paris and 31% in Frankfurt, is about to change.

There is no need to explain why this is huge news (for those who have not followed our series on the concerns and issue plaguing German gold can catch up here, here, here, here, and certainly here) . At least no need for us to explain. Instead we will let the Bundesbank do the explanation. The following section is the answer provided by the Bundesbank itself in late October in response to the question why it does not move the gold back to Germany:

The reasons for storing gold reserves with foreign partner central banks are historical since, at the time, gold at these trading centres was transferred to the Bundesbank. To be more specific: in October 1951 the Bank deutscher Länder, the Bundesbank’s predecessor, purchased its first gold for DM 2.5 million; that was 529 kilograms at the time. By 1956, the gold reserves had risen to DM 6.2 billion, or 1,328 tonnes; upon its foundation in 1957, the Bundesbank took over these reserves. No further gold was added until the 1970s. During that entire period, we had nothing but the best of experiences with our partners in New York, London and Paris. There was never any doubt about the security of Germany’s gold. In future, we wish to continue to keep gold at international gold trading centres so that, when push comes to shove, we can have it available as a reserve asset as soon as possible. Gold stored in your home safe is not immediately available as collateral in case you need foreign currency. Take, for instance, the key role that the US dollar plays as a reserve currency in the global financial system. The gold held with the New York Fed can, in a crisis, be pledged with the Federal Reserve Bank as collateral against US dollar-denominated liquidity. Similar pound sterling liquidity could be obtained by pledging the gold that is held with the Bank of England.

And in case the above was not clear enough, below is the speech Buba's Andreas Dobret delivered to none other than NY Fed's Bill Dudley in early November:

Please let me also comment on the bizarre public discussion we are currently facing in Germany on the safety of our gold deposits outside Germany – a discussion which is driven by irrational fears.

In this context, I wish to warn against voluntarily adding fuel to the general sense of uncertainty among the German public in times like these by conducting a “phantom debate” on the safety of our gold reserves.

The arguments raised are not really convincing. And I am glad that this is common sense for most Germans. Following the statement by the President of the Federal Court of Auditors in Germany, the discussion is now likely to come to an end – and it should do so before it causes harm to the excellent relationship between the Bundesbank and the US Fed.

Throughout these sixty years, we have never encountered the slightest problem, let alone had any doubts concerning the credibility of the Fed [ZH may, and likely will, soon provide a few historical facts which will cast some serious doubts on this claim. Very serious doubts]. And for this, Bill, I would like to thank you personally. I am also grateful for your uncomplicated cooperation in so many matters. The Bundesbank will remain the Fed’s trusted partner in future, and we will continue to take advantage of the Fed’s services by storing some of our currency reserves as gold in New York.

Incidentally, what Zero Hedge did provide after this article, was factual evidence that the Buba's very much "trusted partner" had been skimming it on physical gold deliveries on at least one occasion, in "Exclusive: Bank Of England To The Fed: "No Indication Should, Of Course, Be Given To The Bundesbank..."

So we wonder: what changed in the three months between November and now, that has caused such a dramatic about face at the Bundesbank, and that in light of all of the above, will make is explicitly very unambigous that the act of gold repatriation, assuming of course that Handelsblatt did not mischaracterize what is happening and misreport the facts, means the "excellent relationship" between the Fed and Buba, not to mention Banque de France which will shortly hold precisely zero German gold, has just collapsed.

Also, if the Bundesbank is first, who is next?

Finally, once the scramble to satisfy physical gold deliverable claims manifests itself in the market, we can't help but wonder what will happen to the price of gold: both paper and physical?

<end>

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  166 Comments


Jan 15, 2013 - 7:45am

A 2nd translation

This is helpful. Thank you, deadcatpounce!

Decent translation

Submitted by Dead Cat Pounce on January 15, 2013 - 2:32am.

GoogleTranslate is crap, of course, but zerohedge interpreted it right...

...my own translation (done without referring to the Google version, so all mistakes are my own):

***

Bundesbank Intends to Retrieve German Gold

Following the establishment of the Bundesbank, large portions of Germany’s gold reserves were deposited with the Allies for reasons of security. Now, the gold is to be brought back from New York and Paris.

Caption: The gold reserves of the Bundesbank are to once again be held for the most part in Frankfurt

Frankfurt. The Bundesbank has devised a new concept according to which its gold reserves shall be stored in the future. According to information obtained by Handelsblatt (Tues. edition), the concept—which is to be announced this coming Wednesday—entails that the bank’s domestic location be made more important, with less gold being stored in New York and none at all in Paris.

With this, the central bank reacted to a report of the Federal Court of Auditors, which audits the annual reports of the Bundesbank and had recommended that it put together and document a current storage location concept.

According to statements by the Bundesbank, it currently stores its gold in New York, London, Paris and Frankfurt. The American central bank, the Fed, stores 45 percent of the total 3,396 tons of gold, while the Bank of England in London stores 13 percent, the Banque de France in Paris 11 percent and [Bundesbank] headquarters in Frankfurt holds 31 percent. This distribution is now to change.

[Table with various nations’ resp. gold hordes in tons and as a percentage of currency reserves]

Bundesbank Executive Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele had already said last autumn that there was no longer any compelling reason to store the gold in the French capital. Originally, during the cold war and the division of Germany, the Federal Republic distributed its gold among various partner countries—including France—for reasons of security. This argument is no longer valid. And a further argument speaks against Paris: there, in contrast to London or New York, the Bundesbank would not receive any foreign currency in the event of a world currency crisis.

***

They've since deleted the table but added a link to their printed story in today's paper edition, which I downloaded. No idea whether posting a translation of that would be permissible, since it was a paid download ... probably not...

Green Lantern
Jan 15, 2013 - 7:59am

I made money in platinum. 

I made money in platinum. AND I made money in palladium. Why? Because my wife nagged me to buy both. She even wanted me to buy rhodium but I said hell no. I am not investing in something I know nothing about and something I have little way to follow.

I will buy ANYTHING on sale. PERIOD. Platinum trading at lower prices than gold was screaming. The problem with platinum is the local coin store guy who liked it as much as me never bought any stock because nobody was interested. Nobody would ever buy it. Other than he'll buy it from me at spot. I didn't buy alot of it simply because it's expensive, you have to buy alot at a time. I didn't feel like buying lots of 10,000.

Palladium was another screaming buy but again it was my wife and her chinese friends who were the smart ones. They made a killing. However, we sold all but two coins back to my LCS when it peaked. He bought them and a number of times, people in the store purchased the coins even before we left as soon as he put in the counter.

There are some smart people in the world. But in this life sometimes you have to focus. I didn't become rich simply because I didn't buy enough.

My brother just shared with me a pharmaceutical stock that went up 12 times value and his friend made well over a million dollars. He bought low while nobody was interested. Am I interested in buying pharmaceutical stocks?? Not really. But I am interested in making money and if somebody would have called me up and told me that they were ready to launch a blockbuster drug, I might have been interested.

There are a bunch of other non-dollar assetts that interest me. But that's not our collective interest, so no use in going to a party and having a conversation that nobody is interest in having.

People are still getting wealthy in other investments. We are here because we want to insure our money against a financial calamity. The definitive book on value investing. "The Intellegent Investor" Rick Rule reads it and then reads it again. Then he reads it again. He never stops reading it. Because he never wants to forget the principles.

Gold and silver aren't normal investments. We are buying two things that have already gone up expotentially. And this is why guys like Paul Van Eden says he ain't buying gold. However, he's dead wrong because the fundamental driver's of the metals are just beginning. Gold and silver are truly odd.

philipat
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:16am

@MrFix

Don't forget that BOTH EUR and, especially, JPY after the remarks by their FinMin, are correcting. So given the inverse correlation to USD, PM's should correct also. That said:

1. The monkeys never miss an opportunity of the regular kind, not the clever kind like last Friday.

2. If the German Gold HB report is confirmed tomorrow, nothing can stop a run up, not even BM.

I profited from Platinum also but only in the Trading Account via several leveraged "Precious Metals" Paper positions.

Groaner
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:27am

So Germany wants their tungston back.. haha.

Yeah, they can want in one hand and wish in the other..

I am real curious to see how fast and if they can get it back and is it there????. Never the less, it will motivate others to get their hands on their gold too and create huge demand.

Larry
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:29am

Like an international crime novel

Particularly if the ship returning the gold to Germany accidentally sinks into a deep trench while crossing the Atlantic. Surely this irretrievable loss into the abyss wouldn't be blamed on the US, because they will surely provide submarine and drone support. Would the same captain that buried Osama at sea be on the ship for this assignment?

It's a big ocean and accidents do happen. Much like the canoe tipping over on the lake... but different.

luismis
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:34am

Intelligent Investor

Thanks Green Lantern for your great post. I've found out that the book you mentioned is available in PDF format:

https://www.google.ch/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=intelligent%20investor%20graham%2...

Groaner
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:38am

When is this German gold story going to hit the main line news?

They must be real scared to report this.

Groaner silver66
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:43am

Save on Turd's bandwith by

posting a link instead..of 10 pages..

Hammer
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:47am

(No subject)

(Reuters) - Aggressive policy easing will remain necessary for the simple reason that levels of both U.S. unemployment and inflation are not where the Federal Reserve wants them to be, a top U.S. central bank official said on Tuesday.

"Continued monetary accommodation is absolutely appropriate and indeed needed as long as we are projected to miss on both elements of the Fed's dual mandate, inflation and employment," he said in prepared remarks to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce.

"Currently, inflation is somewhat below our 2-percent target, and unemployment is well above a longer-run sustainable rate," he added

philipat
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:49am

Platinum Coins

In response to all the above German Gold/Platinum comments. According to my calculations, all 3,500 Tons (Metric Tons, @ 1000 Kg per Ton) is valued in TOTAL at ABOUT USD 15 Billion.

With a US Debt of 16 TRILLION, and counting, that kind of puts the US problem into perspective? Also the 1 TRILLION Platinum coin scam?

That said, every Billion helps because soon we could be talking REAL money and, if I were the Germans, I certainly would want Zee Gold back In mein own mitts. Ya??

Beastly Stack
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:49am

IF WE KNOW

THE BIG GUYS ALREADY KNOW a story of this MAGNITUDE.

Gold looks pretty good anyways,LET"S SEE

philipat
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:52am

@Groaner

Does that mean no more long Bible quotes also..;-)

Hammer
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:58am

(No subject)

Jan 15 (Reuters) - There is a material risk the United States would lose its triple-A if there is a repeat of 2011 wrangling over raising the country's self-imposed debt ceiling, rating firm Fitch said on Tuesday.

"If anything the pressure on the U.S. rating is increasing," Fitch's head of sovereign ratings David Riley said at a conference hosted by the firm.

"If we have a repeat of the August 2011 debt ceiling crisis we will place the U.S. rating under review. There will be a material risk of the U.S rating coming down," he added.

https://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/15/united-states-rating-fitch-id...
enkidu
Jan 15, 2013 - 8:59am

German Gold?!

What happened to Gold last time this happened?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9631962/Bundesbank-s...

Oh yeah the start of the bull run.....

Gulp....................

ag1969
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:07am

Can't we just....

Give Germany shares of GLD? Same thing, right?


Jan 15, 2013 - 9:13am

Silver66

Pls doublecheck that the email you posted is OK for public distribution. Once you confirm, I will repost it.

thanks!

Horst
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:14am

Last I heard the Bundesbank

Last I heard the Bundesbank was going to comply with the German court audit ruling by bringing 50 tons of gold for each of the next 3 years from the NY Fed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-22/german-court-demands-bundesbank-audit-sovereign-gold-holdings

Waiting to see if this Wednesday's announcement differs significantly from last November's note.

Yep. The German gold thing has been all over the German news for quite some time. When it began I told someone I know that there would be a whole lot of talk about it, and that they won't get anything, or that it'll just be delayed until nobody cares anymore. Then they came out with this 50 tons per year deal. Seems my prediction was spot on, wasn't it? Well, it wasn't a hard prediction to make, since the gold is gone, so how could they get it back?

This "new announcement" changes nothing. Read closely. It only says that there's a new plan on how to store the gold. It says nothing about when or how much.

Nothing will happen. Nothing can happen. Because if something happens, the whole world financial system will blow up. Right now they can hold this thing together with a little media propaganda and some back door deals. They haven't pulled out the big guns like a force majeure, financial/currency sanctions, military action etc. They still have some big cards that they can play to move any situation to their advantage.

Oh, and don't think China is your savior either. Before the west goes under, the EE will migrate to the east just as the gold does. The squid isn't the east or the west, the squid always sits on top of whoever is (or seems to be) in power, and sucks them dry. Doesn't matter if it's east or west, north or south.

"Own nothing, control everything"

opticsguy
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:16am

Maudlin's emails are free, but I think he wants you to sign up

since he doesn't post them for wide consumption, there may be issues.

Gold beat-down to commence in 14 minutes....


Jan 15, 2013 - 9:17am

Trading from the short side

Just thought I'd throw a contrasting opinion out there since this is the direction I'm trading right now- I am long term bullish, medium term bullish, but short term bearish and am playing this from the sort side at the moment. ZH articles notwithstanding, here are a few things to consider if you are trading:

First, we have been working a valid down-trending fork in Silver since December, and I expect this to hold. If it does, a run to the mid-line around 29 seems likely. If it doesn't, I'll know fairly quickly and can get out.

Second, this play also happens to coincide perfectly with the USDX chart. The chart below is a hot mess, but concentrate on the green support line... to me, this is very tradable. We have held this line of support in the USDX for 13 months! The dollar has bounced off this line seven separate times (yellow circles on the chart) and been repelled within a half point another three times. I know the PIG sucks, but this seems to be the level where it turns into the prettiest leper in the colony. Maybe this time is different and we'll break lower, but it looks to me like the dollar is setting up for a bounce here. If we break this support, I will flip to the long side in PM's.

Normally, silver (the black line on the above chart) moves about two dollars inversely for every point on the USDX so when the USDX loses a half point, that usually equates to a roughly one dollar gain in silver and vice versa. Now looking at the average amount and duration of USDX bounces off the support line, we see an average bounce of at least two points, giving us a target of 81.5 within one month - this would equate to a 4 dollar drop in silver, all things being equal. So on this move, I would sell my shorts between 27-28 and look to go long.

Again, this is just my opinion- if silver holds a daily close above 31.80, or the USDX breaks below 79, all of the above becomes invalid and I am out of this trade. Otherwise, I am playing this to the downside for now.

Best of luck, folks.

TreeTop Dweller
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:21am

Kick In the Shorts...

Wow! Germany asking for their gold!

Now, would it not make great theater for Germany to pontificate how they now feel responsible enough to handle their own gold. The FED complies and "sends' all that is asked with a hand written note "It's about time you got this barbaric relic out of our basement, we need the space for these FRN's we are printing and numerous platinum coins we are minting."

Germany pridefully takes possession of their on time and intact allocation and under veil of pure secrecy, announces all is well! Pure Joy! All the gold is arriving home, safe and sound, see the world is making a commotion when there really is nothing to worry about!

The Central bankers are all in-sync again and the world continues to live under the delusion of fiat money!

Groaner
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:22am

Not enough easing.. Bernanke.. open up the spigits.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-kocherlakota-says-policy-not-easy...

All talk about cutting back at the end of 2013... never will they be able to stop buying debt.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:24am

If the Phone Doesn't Ring, It's Me

Hope the Germans aren’t expecting Torgerson’s Insurance to call and offer to underwrite the safe shipment of their gold if they decide to repatriate it. Don’t know if this story about repatriation is true, but, if it is, there’s no way I’d insure that shipment over thousands of miles of ocean.

I could just foresee the “Mother of All Boating Accidents”.

I’ll add that Murphy does not have authorization to act on my behalf in any dealings with the Germans.

Nein! Nein! Nein!

Jimmy Buffett - If The Phone Doesn't Ring It's Me

Torgerson’s – Maritime Underwriters since 2011

rocoach
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:33am

But what about silver?

What does all this mean for silver? Will silver tag along with gold and go along for the ride, or will the two metals decouple with gold rising at a faster rate than silver?

rpboxster
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:33am

Platinum

Just for kicks I picked up a couple Aussie Platypus' in early November because I didn't have any Pt and it was less than Au. Those coins are beautiful. Wish I had a few more.

https://www.texmetals.com/australian-platinum-platypus.html

achmachat
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:35am

For what it's worth...

Der Spiegel is also reporting this story... although it gives as its source a newspaper report (probably the Handelsblatt)

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/goldreserven-bundesbank-holt-...

Groaner
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:35am

Appl under $500 at $494 uh oh..

Apple is the stock market..

Mantis
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:35am

Time for the daily slam ?

Whats the odd theres a drop anytime now ..

Groaner Mantis
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:38am

probably.. this is getting real old..

How long can they keep this up..I mean down!

Northern Border
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:45am

Sorry for going off topic yesterday/Everything is linked

Turdites,

My apology for going off topic with my video post yesterday on Sandy Hook and how the .gov is more than likely responsible for this.

This situation is linked to the "Ending of the great Keynesian experiment." The same Powers that be, cartel et al are controlled by the same puppet masters that manipulate the metals market that is discussed daily here to keep the illusion alive that "everything is ok" for the sheeple to remain calm.

The whole thing stinks for the start. Friends and I have discussed this in detail since the very first day of it being reported and said this does not pass the "Smell test."

Oh yeah, the Germans wanting the gold back, that is a big deal.

In the words of Cypress Hill, When the shit goes down, you better be ready.

Off to the LCS and to scrounge any ammo I can find at the stores. Things are increasing at a rapid pace !

NB

So It Goes
Jan 15, 2013 - 9:49am

Well there goes those damn algos again

These patterns are really obnoxious - algos fighting with each other.

Same pattern for the past 3 trading sessions.

Many people in NY just don't like gold - so eff them.

Keep stacking - we will be vindicated soon.

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