ChartDaddy Returns

203
Tue, Jan 8, 2013 - 1:36pm

This is way more charts than I've ever given you in one post. I hope you're ready.

For now, the metals are both being contained below their 200-day moving averages of gold at $1667 and silver at $30.82. So, while the metals continue in a holding pattern, I thought that today would be an excellent day to give you this massive update and, perhaps, make some general assumptions about 2013.

The problem with doing this is knowing where to start and how to put these into an order that makes some sort of logical sense. Since "logical sense" eludes me at this moment, I'm just going to dump them on you, instead.

First up, here are daily charts of the euro and copper. Note how closely they tracked each other through 2012. Actually, it would probably be more accurate to say "look how closely copper tracked the euro". Also notice how both declined in mid-December but recovered in late December.

Now look how closely silver has also tracked the euro in 2012. Note that silver fell in mid-December, too, but did not see the rebound that copper did. Hmmm. Is paper silver undervalued by 10%?

Next, let's look at the bond market. I've suggested to you that QE of $85B/month is not enough to fund the 2013 deficit, which looks to be in the $1.6-1.7T range. Falling prices/rising rates would also suggest that more Fed "support" is needed in the bond market. My guess is we'll see it soon...probably when the 10-year approaches the 127-128 level and the Long Bond is threatening to break down through 140.

Let's begin the currency discussion with the POSX. Remember and never forget that the POSX is simply a reflection of The Pig versus other rapidly-devaluing fiat currencies. The fact that the POSX is flat over the past five years only means that other global fiat have declined in value by an equivalent amount.

So, in that context, look at The Pig vs the yen. Yikes! Were you aware of this? We'll definitely need to watch this relationship over the next few weeks and months.

Another very interesting currency chart is the Swissie. From mid-2010 through mid-2011, the Swiss franc rallied almost 40% as it was perceived to be the final and only "safe haven" fiat currency. Well, the Swiss didn't like that too much as they keynesian-foolishly feared that a strong franc would wreck their economy. So, they did what all centrally-planning keynesians do, they devalued by pegging the swissie to the euro in early September of 2011. (Recall, too, that this left gold as the only remaining "safe haven" currency and it was carpet-bombed a full five minutes before the announcement was made and has been firmly held in check ever since.) Well, now, the swissie (and, by extension, the euro) has begun to form a massive, bowl-shaped bottom on this weekly chart. Hmmmm....could this foretell a POSX breakdown in 2013?

Let's now switch to crude, where a trading opportunity may be developing. (Full disclosure: Like most everything else, I missed the boat quite often in crude in 2012.) Look at these charts. A pullback to 91-92 would sure seem to present a buying opportunity for a move to 98-100. From there, a consolidation would paint the chart with a massive, cup-and-handle formation and would make the chart look like 115+ by mid year.

The old adage among grain traders is "buy on Valentine's Day and sell on Mother's Day". That strategy certainly looks like a good idea in 2013, too. The drought in the U.S. Midwest has not lessened at all this winter ( https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/12_week.gif) so you can rightly expect some rapid gains this spring if the next growing season begins dry, too. I'll definitely be looking to dabble in beans next month, especially if price can fall a bit further, toward $13.

And this is interesting. Have you been to the market lately and thought, "Damn, that shit's expensive" when looking at steaks and burgers? If so, this next chart will show you why. It's a weekly chart of Live Cattle and note that since the advent of Quantitative Easing in 2009, beef prices have risen over 60%. Is your salary up by 60%, too? No? Hmmm...the major problem here is that soaring "protein" prices will ultimately lead to civil unrest, first in the 3rd world but, eventually, here in The West, as well. Watch this closely in 2013 as it has the potential to develop into a real problem.

And get a load of this next chart...Lumber. Apparently lumber didn't get the memo post-QE∞. Since mid-September, it's up over 40%. Permanently low rates means a housing recovery? I don't think so but clearly the lumber market does! Either this sucker rolls over soon or, eventually, a lot of other commodities are going to have to play catch up. Another chart to watch closely in the weeks and months ahead.

And, finally, here's the S&P. I guess we're all just dumb-as-a-box-0f-rocks for buying metal over the past four years when we could have been buying and holding stocks, instead. UP over 100% since the initiation of Quantitative Easing in March of 2009, more than just about any other paper "asset" and you get a dividend! Isn't it interesting that all of this money printing leads stocks higher than everything else? Gee, I wonder why that could be?

Perhaps THIS has a little something to do with it. Please take the time to read this very important and informative article from ZH. It's one of the most important things they've written in quite a while. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-07/dear-steve-liesman-here-how-us-financial-system-really-works

And buried within that article is the paragraph near-and-dear to my heart and the hearts of all of Turdville. This is the mechanism through which JPM conceals their manipulative actions from the CFTC and everyone else:

"Now the JPM spin is well-known: the CIO was merely there to "hedge" exposure, as a direct prop bet would be illegal as per the Volcker Rule, not to mention the avalanche of lawsuits and the regulatory nightmare that would ensue if it became clear that the firm was risking what amounts to deposit capital to fund massive, highly risky prop trading bets. Which, when one cuts out the noise, is precisely what JPM did of course, especially since the "hedge" trade blew up just as the market tumbled in the spring of 2012, a time when it should have otherwise hedged the balance of the firm's otherwise bullish posture. That it did not do this refutes the logic that this was a hedge, and confirms that what JPM was doing was nothing short of using an internal, heavily shielded hedge fund, which had $323 billion in collateral as investable equity, to trade away, knowing very well no regulator would dare touch JPM."

OK, that's all for today. I look forward to reading your comments.

TF

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tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  203 Comments

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ivars
Jan 9, 2013 - 2:24pm

In Early march the 200 MA for

In Early march the 200 MA for both silver and gold will move up till April. Interesting, would it mark a support or resistance then. I think it will be above 33 by the end of this period. These dates- beginning of April- coincide with projected potential trend change close to quarterly expiration- March 25th, 2013 - as concluded from this chart:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/584897#comment-584897

Urban RomanMr. Fix
Jan 9, 2013 - 2:19pm

@ Mr Fix

Exactly. And very well put.

I wonder how many votes for RP simply disappeared into the void in the last election (both primary and general)?

Mr. Fixtreefrog
Jan 9, 2013 - 2:08pm

RE, treefrog - II

The last line of your post, is the most disturbing one of all.

“The saddest part is that we all elected these idiots”

I have a serious question for anyone to ponder, how can that possibly be true?

Now tried to square that with the next statement.

"They have a 6% approval rate yet a 97% retention rate."

Why anybody thinks our votes actually matter on election day is beyond me.

If there were truly free, fair and open elections, these guys would be in federal penitentiaries, not running our country.

Voting stopped mattering a long time ago, and never been more obvious than it is now,

and yet you can not even bring a voter fraud charge to a court.

The lawlessness is epic, and people are too stupid to notice.

This will not end well.

old tradesman
Jan 9, 2013 - 2:07pm

@ancientmoney

Bush allegedly bought land in Paraguay in 2006, a roughly 98,840 acre parcel in the Paso de Patria area called "Chaco", close to the intersections of Paraguay, Bolivia, and Brazil. Apparently, it's a gorgeous spot. The land is close to the Bolivian wetlands, is situated near natural gas reserves, and sits atop one of the largest aquifers in the world, the Guarani indigenous water region. Part of the property has been designated an ecological reserve. And wow, they think of everything, it's close to the US Mariscal Estigarribia Military Base. The U.S. officially denies having troops there except for "exercises", and vigorously denies rumors of having its own base there.

Lamenting Laverne
Jan 9, 2013 - 1:26pm

Help needed

I am trying to find the official gold reserves per country in a format that can be imported to xls or at least copied to a textfile for further processing.

All I am finding is pdf formats (Gold World Council), which require manual input or csv.files (IMF) of international reserves - one file per country, so you have to open a gazillion files and handpick the gold number in each. Of course this is doable, but I was wondering if any of you, who plow through statistics on a regular basis could direct me to a more accessible source. I am not looking for "Top 10" or similar - I am looking for a table with the majority of the countries reporting to the IMF.

My irritation of this hurdle makes me start to think that this way of presenting the data is entirely on purpose ,-(

Anyway, if anyone can help, I would be much obliged.

Mr. Fix
Jan 9, 2013 - 1:20pm
Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

ancientmoneyold tradesman
Jan 9, 2013 - 1:19pm

old tradesman farm buying post

Your post of last night reminded me of something. right after Bush 2 got out of office, it was rumored his family had bought something like 100,000 acres of farmland in Uruguay. Does anyone know if that was true? Would be interesting to learn if they are building on it, if true.

debtless
Jan 9, 2013 - 1:18pm

Golf Near Tampa

I too am an 8+ handicap. TPC Tampa in Lutz is the public course for players down here. And I can tell you first hand it's in terrific shape right now. Played it Sat, tee off tomorrow again at 2.

Hit 'em long & straight.

Mr. Fix
Jan 9, 2013 - 1:16pm

@ treefrog

I used to think that I live in a country run by idiots,

now I know that I am living in a country ruled by pure evil.

ancientmoneySave_America1st
Jan 9, 2013 - 1:16pm

@save_america first . . . wow, nice rant!!

Just catching up on last night's posts, and you sound like Mr. Fix, Jr.!

Unfortunately, I see things similar to how you and Fix do. However, there is some potential saving grace.

For example, the police/gestapo and/or military members may experience their own loved ones being in harm's way if the govy pushes it all too hard. They may decide it best to side with the populace, because in numbers, there is strength. There are actually only a few elite.

And, as SRSrocco intimated, their power--the almighty dollar, may become worthless before they can get their whole agenda accomplished. This could happen due to peak oil, or any number of black swans out there. If the police/military can't buy a loaf of bread with their monthly paychecks, their loyalty to the elite moneychangers, if it exists now, will quickly dissolve.

After all, police and military are people first, many with families they are concerned about. They want to feed them, and keep them safe, too.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Forum Discussion

by Spartacus Rex, Dec 4, 2020 - 10:57pm
by Spartacus Rex, Dec 4, 2020 - 10:52pm
by ancientmoney, Dec 4, 2020 - 2:33pm