ChartDaddy Returns

203
Tue, Jan 8, 2013 - 1:36pm

This is way more charts than I've ever given you in one post. I hope you're ready.

For now, the metals are both being contained below their 200-day moving averages of gold at $1667 and silver at $30.82. So, while the metals continue in a holding pattern, I thought that today would be an excellent day to give you this massive update and, perhaps, make some general assumptions about 2013.

The problem with doing this is knowing where to start and how to put these into an order that makes some sort of logical sense. Since "logical sense" eludes me at this moment, I'm just going to dump them on you, instead.

First up, here are daily charts of the euro and copper. Note how closely they tracked each other through 2012. Actually, it would probably be more accurate to say "look how closely copper tracked the euro". Also notice how both declined in mid-December but recovered in late December.

Now look how closely silver has also tracked the euro in 2012. Note that silver fell in mid-December, too, but did not see the rebound that copper did. Hmmm. Is paper silver undervalued by 10%?

Next, let's look at the bond market. I've suggested to you that QE of $85B/month is not enough to fund the 2013 deficit, which looks to be in the $1.6-1.7T range. Falling prices/rising rates would also suggest that more Fed "support" is needed in the bond market. My guess is we'll see it soon...probably when the 10-year approaches the 127-128 level and the Long Bond is threatening to break down through 140.

Let's begin the currency discussion with the POSX. Remember and never forget that the POSX is simply a reflection of The Pig versus other rapidly-devaluing fiat currencies. The fact that the POSX is flat over the past five years only means that other global fiat have declined in value by an equivalent amount.

So, in that context, look at The Pig vs the yen. Yikes! Were you aware of this? We'll definitely need to watch this relationship over the next few weeks and months.

Another very interesting currency chart is the Swissie. From mid-2010 through mid-2011, the Swiss franc rallied almost 40% as it was perceived to be the final and only "safe haven" fiat currency. Well, the Swiss didn't like that too much as they keynesian-foolishly feared that a strong franc would wreck their economy. So, they did what all centrally-planning keynesians do, they devalued by pegging the swissie to the euro in early September of 2011. (Recall, too, that this left gold as the only remaining "safe haven" currency and it was carpet-bombed a full five minutes before the announcement was made and has been firmly held in check ever since.) Well, now, the swissie (and, by extension, the euro) has begun to form a massive, bowl-shaped bottom on this weekly chart. Hmmmm....could this foretell a POSX breakdown in 2013?

Let's now switch to crude, where a trading opportunity may be developing. (Full disclosure: Like most everything else, I missed the boat quite often in crude in 2012.) Look at these charts. A pullback to 91-92 would sure seem to present a buying opportunity for a move to 98-100. From there, a consolidation would paint the chart with a massive, cup-and-handle formation and would make the chart look like 115+ by mid year.

The old adage among grain traders is "buy on Valentine's Day and sell on Mother's Day". That strategy certainly looks like a good idea in 2013, too. The drought in the U.S. Midwest has not lessened at all this winter ( https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/12_week.gif) so you can rightly expect some rapid gains this spring if the next growing season begins dry, too. I'll definitely be looking to dabble in beans next month, especially if price can fall a bit further, toward $13.

And this is interesting. Have you been to the market lately and thought, "Damn, that shit's expensive" when looking at steaks and burgers? If so, this next chart will show you why. It's a weekly chart of Live Cattle and note that since the advent of Quantitative Easing in 2009, beef prices have risen over 60%. Is your salary up by 60%, too? No? Hmmm...the major problem here is that soaring "protein" prices will ultimately lead to civil unrest, first in the 3rd world but, eventually, here in The West, as well. Watch this closely in 2013 as it has the potential to develop into a real problem.

And get a load of this next chart...Lumber. Apparently lumber didn't get the memo post-QE∞. Since mid-September, it's up over 40%. Permanently low rates means a housing recovery? I don't think so but clearly the lumber market does! Either this sucker rolls over soon or, eventually, a lot of other commodities are going to have to play catch up. Another chart to watch closely in the weeks and months ahead.

And, finally, here's the S&P. I guess we're all just dumb-as-a-box-0f-rocks for buying metal over the past four years when we could have been buying and holding stocks, instead. UP over 100% since the initiation of Quantitative Easing in March of 2009, more than just about any other paper "asset" and you get a dividend! Isn't it interesting that all of this money printing leads stocks higher than everything else? Gee, I wonder why that could be?

Perhaps THIS has a little something to do with it. Please take the time to read this very important and informative article from ZH. It's one of the most important things they've written in quite a while. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-07/dear-steve-liesman-here-how-us-financial-system-really-works

And buried within that article is the paragraph near-and-dear to my heart and the hearts of all of Turdville. This is the mechanism through which JPM conceals their manipulative actions from the CFTC and everyone else:

"Now the JPM spin is well-known: the CIO was merely there to "hedge" exposure, as a direct prop bet would be illegal as per the Volcker Rule, not to mention the avalanche of lawsuits and the regulatory nightmare that would ensue if it became clear that the firm was risking what amounts to deposit capital to fund massive, highly risky prop trading bets. Which, when one cuts out the noise, is precisely what JPM did of course, especially since the "hedge" trade blew up just as the market tumbled in the spring of 2012, a time when it should have otherwise hedged the balance of the firm's otherwise bullish posture. That it did not do this refutes the logic that this was a hedge, and confirms that what JPM was doing was nothing short of using an internal, heavily shielded hedge fund, which had $323 billion in collateral as investable equity, to trade away, knowing very well no regulator would dare touch JPM."

OK, that's all for today. I look forward to reading your comments.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  203 Comments

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Niklaz
Jan 9, 2013 - 6:54pm

@Boatman

Social Security has been paid into for decades. Every year the congress steals the money. The following year the balance begins at zero. Of course, it's insolvent! All the money has been stolen for Christ sake! The balance should be in hundreds if not thousands of billions. Someone do the math.

ivars
Jan 9, 2013 - 4:26pm

Thanks,Moving stops up. At

Thanks,

Moving stops up. At 29,22 was 8 cents from being stopped out

Hope will have still possibility to manage money better.

May be will move to a cheaper platform so can make smaller bets.

Have a nice time

Hawk
Jan 9, 2013 - 4:17pm

Possible Ivars, but depends ,

Possible Ivars,

but depends , could still be another leg lower still, really depends on Cartels motives, i haven't yet decided what i think. I want to see a move through $33/$1725 to feel happy we arent going lower

HAWK

ivars
Jan 9, 2013 - 4:08pm

@Hawk

Do you think short term bottom is in place?

No strings attached:)

I am still long from 30,98. Moving stops up.

ancientmoneySave_America1st
Jan 9, 2013 - 3:33pm

@save_America1st . . .

You may want to copy and paste your last post on this thread over to the new one. When a new thread starts, many stop reading the old one.

I think it would help a lot of people to hear your and your brother's 90% theory. I know it makes me feel better. I am SO GLAD our military folks see the evil among us that they must defend--for now.

Save_America1st
Jan 9, 2013 - 3:23pm

@ancientmoney

Thanks man...I appreciate your comment. My younger brother is a Marine. He knows what's up...we trade info when we can because he gets stuff we on the outside don't get, and they are scarily sequestered from a lot of outside info that I'm able to convey to him.

He states most Marines would never go against us...his estimate is well over 90% would not turn on the rest of America which is very good to hear.

The government knows this...this is why they may turn to foreign NATO and UN troops, mercenaries, or other foreign military to use against us. Those types won't think twice about kicking in our doors and cutting loose on us...they will have full immunity from the UN for their crimes.

This is why the government is spreading propaganda about ex-military being terrorists, and using mental health regulations to disarm them as well as the rest of us. That's been the plan all along. They need to disarm as much of our own ex and/or current military, as well as most of the citizens, or put us in prisons/camps before they let loose on us with their foreign troops or they will lose badly against us.

They know the military guys and gals have superior tactical knowledge that they will pass on to the rest of us as well, so they have to disarm as many of us as possible, criminalize all gun or ammo ownership, and put us in jails/camps so that the rest of the sheeple will not be able to put up much of a fight.

That's how I think they see it in their little perfect delusional think-tank world of evil conspiracies against the American people...all we can do is our best to de-rail anything and everything they try to do against us until we win. No quitting...ever.

Hawk
Jan 9, 2013 - 3:12pm

Got to Address this

a few people have pointed out that Selling today occurred as a result of some obscure news piece or another, NOPE. Selling/buying is determined by the largest trading entities taking advantage of weakness in everyone else's positions, Take the most recent fundamentally very bullish QE event where gold rallied to $1725 before selling off to these new lows.

This event could have been spun either way in the aftermath,

If a rally occurs, everyone says its obvious people are buying because of QE forever.

If price falls then it was already priced in and you are seeing profit taking. Therefore no single news event can change what the largest entities are doing to the price if they sense weakness in the market and their opponents.

The metals markets are thus one of the hardest to trade as you must try to out think the banking foxes.

HAWK

Save_America1st
Jan 9, 2013 - 3:10pm

voting...

I'm heading out to run some errands, but will chime in on voting. It's a scam...has been for probably longer than we'll all ever know. But I just didn't really "know" until the last 2 cycles. The last pres election I participated in I voted for McCain...and the reasons were twofold: I knew obama was a Marxist traitor and I really liked Sarah Palin (mostly cuz she was such a hottie ). But I never liked McCain...just another "Prog" who switched parties and acted like a Conservative (just like Romney)...but I knew obama was the much worse alternative.

During the 2012 primaries I voted for Ron Paul even though I knew he was going to get trampled on by the GOP establishment scumbags...I was right. I did not vote in the 2012 election. I knew there was no point anymore, and I will never vote again.

I will not participate again in this sham system. I choose not to even acknowledge these thieves as worthy of even being American citizens, so why should I vote for the lessor of 2 evils all the time?

I really do like Lt. Col. Allen West a lot...but he's not in my district here in Florida, so I couldn't vote for him. I wish he would have run for Senate, but he chose not to. And even the Florida state GOP railroaded him to cause him to lose his position by gerrymandering his district which he was so successful and popular in, and he then promptly lost in a new district ruled by the Left. Once again proving the GOP is not on our side...they're just the flip side of the same corrupt and tarnished coin that is occupied on the other side by Marxists.

So F'em all. I'm out of it. I will never vote again, period. And I will no longer try to convince others to either, which I used to do, because I have so many Conservative friends who never voted because they were just lazy. Well they don't have to listen to me about it anymore...those days are done for good.

I will never willing participate in the destruction of our Republic by voting for the scum who conspire with each other in D.C. and all over this great nation to destroy us. They're all traitors. Plain and simple.

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boatman
Jan 9, 2013 - 2:57pm

Bush land in paraguay

that was an ecological preserve bought by an ecological foundation he supported, as my girlfriend also did.

boatman
Jan 9, 2013 - 2:45pm

social security IS insolvent of course

but they will print money to fund it and i will cash the checks.

sure, gas will be $10 and the COLA will be 0.

course in a mad max scenario who cares.

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