Low E

347
Fri, Jan 4, 2013 - 11:42am

As a middle-aged American male, I'm told by my television that I should be concerned about "Low T"...Big Pharma slang for low testosterone. So far, so good on that one (as MrsF will attest ). A much bigger problem right now is "Low E"...Turd slang for low enthusiasm.

Maybe tomorrow I'll write a post that discusses the MOPE and crap of yesterday. That The Fed can/will end QE as soon as later this year is so nonsensical that it doesn't deserve logical refutation.

Maybe tomorrow I'll write a post that discusses the latest BLSBS, replete with buried statistics and mentions of participation rates and seasonal adjustments.

Maybe tomorrow I'll write a post that includes a bunch of charts with lines drawn all over them, showing where price might stop and reverse.

For now, I only want to write about the one thing that bothered me the entire time I was on vacation...the CFTC.

You see, here's the problem: I'd like to have hope. I see things. I talk to people. I read a lot. And I think. All of this leads me to the conclusions I espouse here. Namely, that the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us and we all need to prepare accordingly. The politicians are all corrupt. The U.S., and the world for that matter, is ruled in favor of the very few, particularly the international bankers. The global economic system is about to collapse and morph into something completely different from what we've all known our entire lifetimes.

But, I'd like to have hope. Hope that I'm wrong. Hope that I simply have an overactive imagination. Hope that I am just channeling Russell Crowe playing John Nash, seeing clearly nothing but make-believe conspiracies and foolishly connecting the dots.

But the problem is...the CFTC. There the illusion and hope unravels.

You'll surely ask me how I know and I'll say "I don't". So, don't bother. I have no proof. Only faith and trust which could also be misplaced. But I am entirely confident that the CFTC has been given, all wrapped up in a neat little package, everything they need to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the metals markets are wholly and entirely manipulated for the gain of a few bullion banks. Instead of acting promptly, to restore order and confidence in "free and fair markets", they dawdle. They stall. They issue no statements. They conclude no investigations. And, most importantly, they allow the crime to continue as if nothing has changed. Only now they are accomplices, to the point of being co-conspirators.

And this is the problem. Hope is gone. Not that the CFTC was some hoped-for, last bastion of integrity. That's not it at all. They are, instead, the proverbial "straw that broke my back". Because now that I know that the CFTC is negligent and corrupt and only serving to protect and defend their TBTF overlords, my hope is gone. And, again, I'm not talking about hope for a resolution to the metals manipulation, I'm talking about hope that the entire western political and economic system really isn't as corrupt and narcissistic as it seems. For it's impossible not to reach the following conclusion:

  1. The CFTC is protecting a major TBTF, Fed primary dealer by refusing to acknowledge the manipulation.
  2. If this one, government bureaucracy is in the back-pocket of the banks, all of the rest likely are, too.
  3. And if all of the agencies are in the back-pocket of the banks, then the politicians are, too, because most of the bureaucrats are political appointees.
  4. And if all of the politicians are in the the back-pocket of the banks, then the entire political system is a sham. There are no elections. It's all just an illusion designed to mollify the masses.
  5. And if that's the case, what kind of world do we really live in?

So, you can see my problem here. I suffer from "Low E". Why bother to write about all of the day-to-day stuff? Why mark up all my silly charts? Once hope is gone, soldiering on can get pretty challenging. Perhaps I can draw renewed inspiration from the idea of "awakening the masses". Logic suggests that only by operating within the matrix can you reach those still contained therein. But I don't know. I really don't. Inevitably, the first question is: Why try at all?

Let me work on that for a while and I'll get back to you soon. Maybe tomorrow.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  347 Comments

eyeswideopen
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:01pm

Silverman Is Right

Good posting from Tech Trade over at PTC Jan 4 1:31AM

Silverman is right.

"If you look at the weekly and monthly MACD in gold and silver, it appears we are going MUCH lower, sorry to say. Sure, there will be rallies, and the daily is showing a buy signal (still, but it's failing), but the difference between now and January 2012 is that we were nearly bottomed out then on the weekly MACD, here we're mid-range and falling hard with a long way to go to get any where near O/S. If 2012, with all the Euro news and QE news, etc., couldn't get gold and silver to rally to new highs, then it doesn't appear that anything on the horizon is coming along soon that's going to turn the technicals on these, other than time and lower price action.

Silverman's sell of silver at 30.900 was spot on, based on the 20R chart. Every buy signal since then has just been overwhelmed with new sell signals and lower prices. You can't say this is bullish price action - down $2 in 36 hours?

I'd say stop stacking and start hedging on the next rally, or the next sell signal. A retest of 1560-1600 and 27 is certainly not out of the question, and if they fail, there's not much until 22.5 and 1380-1400. Just can't find much to be optimistic about, at least from a technical viewpoint, or from a fundamental one even. The technicals do work - just ask anyone who takes the sell signals and rides these waterfalls down. When buy signals don't have any staying power, when support levels give way one after the other - again, not signs of any bullish price action.

I don't see much good happening in gold and silver in 2013, probably not until 2014 or 2015. At this point, it's time to be realistic and get into protect and preserve mode, and hedge your physical for much more possible down side to come. The ugliness could just be starting."...............................................

I am not a Bear. I'm a stacker, but am not married or emotionally tied to my stack. At least one member of this community can vouch for my position. I feel for those who purchased at the higher levels and may be hurting for cash. Your time will come. I've been fortunate and have been able to buy physical at reasonable levels, sell into some of the uptrends, and buy back lower. I'm repeating this process currently. When you try to think like the criminals and gauge some of the psychology, then certain events in the markets become clearer. A step back from time to time and a look at the mid term picture (RE: Look out your window) helps one to see that this nonsense will continue for awhile yet. In a rational scenario the metals would have been on a tear over the past 4 or 5 months. Testing my tech/psych theories have enabled me to get a few medium term directional calls correct (grinding ending toward the end of August posted at PTC). Yes, a 50/50 chance of being correct. Still, however correct directional calls during the last 3 directional moves. Lessons learned, in part from the group at PTC. Much for all to learn from lurking there. The group will arm you with information, and assist in evening out biases we may carry.

The time we are being given is all bonus time. Stacking means stacking everything. Best wishes to all.

stormtx
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:04pm

Prima Donas

I never comment because I think it is interesting to read the analysis and then move on. But I'm frankly shocked by the commentary in the PM community. Last time I checked gold was up 12 years in a row and silver is doing just fine. It was $9/oz when I first got told to look into silver, early in '09. So cry my a river that it has gone down recently. I bought a lot of options on SLV and GLD that are worthless b/c of this crap and I feel like an idiot, but it's my own fault and I understand that investing you don't get guaranteed positive returns every single day.

Where else do you want to put your money? If you want an easy return of capital, buy very short-dated corporate bonds and stop worrying about it. If you want to invest for the long-term with a real thesis, then invest and continue to evaluate that thesis as the facts change. Price going up or down one day is irrelevant. The only thing of consequence to happen this year is the US Congress agreeing to an even bigger budget deficit for the next decade than expected. Holy hell. I remember reading about the potential of $1 trillion dollar deficits in 2007 and thinking it was wonky. Now we're looking at $1.7 trillion assuming the economy does decently well. And people are whining about gold and silver down 1-2%???

Grow up or give your money to someone else to invest.

I like this site and think it would be sad to abandon it. There's only a few more years left in the PM trade, why ditch now? You're like a tech analyst in '98 frustrated because CSCO went down 20% after going up several fold. Technical analysis is only useful as a guide of when to buy more or lighten up a tad, fundamentals work for the long-term and this site tries to do both. Technicals suck right now. The fundamentals are freaking fantastic.

Finally, to the people who worry that the Fed would abandon QE, let's assume it does and the US economy starts really improving. Interest rates will rise meaningfully and with banks levered 40x1 in Europe (that's what they're admitting to), some major bank would collapse. Then what? Gold is now tier 1 collateral and will be a safe haven asset in a panic. Rather than liquidated it will be hoarded. Silver will come along for the ride.

SaratogaPrepper
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:08pm

Valley Forge

It's just like Valley Forge.

Dead of winter. Everyone is dispirited. Hope it all but gone.

But I am soldiering on!

Because I KNOW I am fighting for what is right.

snick
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:09pm

I still see value in stacking

Turd, I can really relate to the low "E" thing. It looks to me like the cartel is trying to break people's enthusiasm for the metals. The way the price was allowed to rise only to be smashed down, crushing hopes for a strong beginning seems calculated to me.

Actually, fwiw, the theory I subscribe to is that the Fed is the real culprit behind the gold & silver price suppression. The Bernank wants to discourage people from taking their money out of stocks & bonds and investing it in PMs. Although I can't find a citation, I seem to remember that Bernanke as a scholar of the Great Depression stated that one of the mistakes in monetary policy that was made during the Depression was allowing the gold price to rise. If he really thinks that way, it would explain the motivation behind the price suppression, and would also explain why the CFTC appears to be in cahoots with the cartel banks that carry out the attacks. It might even be that all central banks are in this game together - see the Washington Agreement on Gold.

China seems to want to increase its gold reserves, so they would have motivation to continue with price suppression for as long as possible in order to purchase gold at lower prices. So I don't see any way that the Chinese will do anything radical such as opening a new exchange that would allow for unencumbered price discovery that might help shoot the PM prices higher. However, their continued buying will inevitably push prices higher in spite of price suppression on the exchanges.

The only solution I see is to keep stacking. It's going to be one of those crowd sourcing types of things - once enough people start stacking, even in a limited way, the Cartel & the CBs will eventually lose control and the lid will fly sky high.

May each man, woman, and child in China & India (and everywhere else, too) buy (at least) 1 toz of silver! ... that would do it, I think.

So I see a lot of value in this site and in the information provided by you and the many other posters that encourage folks to stack, even if the Government and the Fed is corrupt, and the CFTC is manned by a bunch of f*ing a*holes.

thanks!

Mudsharkbytes
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:09pm

Believe me. I've thought about it.

Thought long and hard. But I can't. There are actual people who I believe, quite literally, put their lives on the line to further the process and I won't/can't endanger them in any way. To do so would be tremendously irresponsible.

dropout
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:10pm

Clarify, To See Clearly

TF do not despair. You have aided so many to 'see' clearly.

I totally agree with your post about the level of corruption in the system and to the depth that it runs.

The CFTC as it is now, is a cruel joke. I especially take issue with the "Mullet"! Bart has been the official apologist, playing the part of "good cop" and offering nothing more than a shoulder to cry on. The other members of the CFTC act in line with what we have come to expect from a crooked group. But Bart is especially vile, in that he offers false hope and feigns genuine interest, all the while walking on his knees before his moneyed masters.

Keep the faith. This site and your leadership provide a light at the top of this watchtower, so others may also be helped to "see clearly."

tmosley
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:11pm

Of course nothing will get

Of course nothing will get the price of paper silver to rise. Paper silver is of debatable worth, and is certainly worth less than actual physical metal. As the layers of fraud continue to come unwound (slowly at first, then all at once), the price will decouple from physical to a much greater extent than we have seen, until paper is worth nothing (no longer traded, and the counterparties are bankrupt), while the dollars previously invested in the paper silver ponzi re-arrange themselves, with much of it going into actual physical silver.

That will be accompanied by an industrial panic as the hedgers are forced onto the spot market, and buy up their whole curve on the spot market so they can stay in business.

That is when the dynamite goes boom.

agNau
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:11pm

;)

"A good pilot is compelled to evaluate what's happened, so he can apply what he's learned. Up there, we gotta push it. That's our job. It's your option, [Turd.] All yours. " ******** EE: They gave you your choice of duty, son. Anything, anywhere. Do you believe that shit? Where do you think you wanna go? Turd: I thought of being an instructor, sir. EE: Turds site? Turd: Yes, sir. EE: God help us.

tpbeta
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:14pm

@Mudsharkbytes

I fear one of Turd's buddies may have turned out to be a bit of a pumper in regard to the HEH. Just a guess.

rtabit
Jan 4, 2013 - 1:17pm

Taking down TFMR

You'd regret that, when the metals do take off, think about how good it's going to feel to shut all these "don't stack now and if you bought in the last two years it was a mistake" dumb asses up.

Also where would all the new people learn about what's really going on in the world, you're performing a public service, you change peoples lives, think about that, that should make you feel good, that should give you energy.

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