Between packing and heading to the airport, I thought I'd squeeze in this post.
Not much happening today ahead of the FOMC minutes and the BLSBS tomorrow. The metals are consolidating their recent rebound gains and poised to add another leg higher if we can get the headlines we're looking for.
The FOMC minutes will be interesting in that they will be from the meeting back in December when QE∞ was formalized. They'll be released later today so be sure to check ZH or some other news source for the stories.
For now, the metals are hanging around some moving average levels that need to be watched, particularly in silver. I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news. The 20-day, 50-day and 100-day are all in the 31.50-32.50 area and that is where the next level of resistance will be found if the rally can extend higher.
Lastly, everyone needs to watch the 10-year and the Long Bond over the next few days. Both are sitting at critical support levels which, if broken, will lead to lower prices (higher rates). As you know, QE is all about providing buying support for the treasury market and, if the bond market begins to break down, it would be a sign that the current $85B/month isn't sufficient for this purpose. I have no doubt that the $85B/month level will need to be increased in 2013 given the current run rate of a $1.7T+ federal deficit. A falling bond market might make this happen sooner rather than later.
Have a great day. Tomorrow it's back to business as usual and there will be a full, new post sometime after the BLSBS at 8:30 EST.
TF
