Travel Day

Thu, Jan 3, 2013 - 12:06pm

Between packing and heading to the airport, I thought I'd squeeze in this post.

Not much happening today ahead of the FOMC minutes and the BLSBS tomorrow. The metals are consolidating their recent rebound gains and poised to add another leg higher if we can get the headlines we're looking for.

The FOMC minutes will be interesting in that they will be from the meeting back in December when QE∞ was formalized. They'll be released later today so be sure to check ZH or some other news source for the stories.

For now, the metals are hanging around some moving average levels that need to be watched, particularly in silver. I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news. The 20-day, 50-day and 100-day are all in the 31.50-32.50 area and that is where the next level of resistance will be found if the rally can extend higher.

Lastly, everyone needs to watch the 10-year and the Long Bond over the next few days. Both are sitting at critical support levels which, if broken, will lead to lower prices (higher rates). As you know, QE is all about providing buying support for the treasury market and, if the bond market begins to break down, it would be a sign that the current $85B/month isn't sufficient for this purpose. I have no doubt that the $85B/month level will need to be increased in 2013 given the current run rate of a $1.7T+ federal deficit. A falling bond market might make this happen sooner rather than later.

Have a great day. Tomorrow it's back to business as usual and there will be a full, new post sometime after the BLSBS at 8:30 EST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mr. Fix
Jan 3, 2013 - 2:02pm

It's a different day, .......... same old shit.......

I just looked at the charts for the day, on the US dollar, gold and silver.

There can be no doubt that the Evil Empire is still firmly in control,

all we can speculate on is how much longer it will last.

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:05pm

Gold hit 38 level and falling

Add to that daily, weekly, monthly stochastics pointing down. Weekly and monthly MACD pointing down.

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:06pm

Silver trade

Shorting silver from 30.90

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:08pm

Silver ...

... hmmmmm - back-testing the 'island reversal' from year end consolidation - tempting for the trading side of my investment outlook

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:08pm

FOMC MOPE: QE could end in 2013

You just knew EE won't let gold have a smooth ride for long.

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:10pm

Take Delivery

Though I've been reading this blog for a while and learning much from Turd and many of you, I'm a new member and this is my first post.

I like the idea of all of us putting pressure on the CRIMEX and standing for silver delivery at spot but the workings of distributing to all the participants is a bit much, a very big much. Besides, how much of a dent does it put on their supply? {whether they've got it or not}. 5000 oz is a drop in the bucket.

I've read others making reference to other sizeable pro-silver groups on youtube, those who read other blogs or watch tv shows, etc

I've seen many posts about 'what if all the silver lovers across the globe bought just one ounce ....' What I'm proposing is that it be done in an ORGANIZED MANNER.

Here's my idea ....

We ALL ... Turdites, youtube silver bugs, followers of Max K, KWN, Andy Mc, Harvey Organ, Zero Hedge, Chris Duane ... the list goes on and on ... buy a quantity of silver, be it bullion or coins or junk silver from whatever source ... any bullion supplier, the US Mint, lcs, ebay, etc REGULARLY on the SAME DAYS EACH MONTH ... Let's say, for example, the first and third Monday each month

Granted, we'd all be paying over spot but, wouldn't this type of ORGANIZED buying of silver and publicizing it make quite a statement as well as taking the supply out of the market? And then the suppliers would be scrambling to replenish their stocks.

Some may be discouraged when they found the lines at the lcs's too long on those days but, hey, think of all the online 'ship it to me' sources available

It would be best for all the 'influentials' to be behind this and publicize it. Can't you see Max K telling his viewers 'Here's the plan' and then 'We're doing it!!' And Turd being interviewed by Lauren Lyster and getting the idea across to Capital Account viewers. Chris Duane, KWN, ZH, Ed Steer, Harvey, and any number of blog writers promoting this.

I think this ORGANIZED silver buying spree over time, involving so many more than us Turdites, would do more than one or a few contracts we could put to Crimex and stand for delivery

Your thoughts?

BTW.. What's HEH?

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:14pm

See, I warned everybody on the last thread…

…whenever I make an online purchase, we get either a waterfall or weeks and weeks of a slow downward grind.

Both suck, but I prefer the waterfall, and here it is, right on cue.

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:21pm

Fed announcement is BS

No one will ever buy bonds except them.. MOPE they bomb after comex closes, how convenient

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:21pm

Comex Crap Rounds !

If the Comex gets wind that we want to make Turd rounds .... they'll probably deliver their worst shit .... .995 Ag ? .... I'm in for one share if we use the crap they deliver .... to highlight their low standards and to be genuine Comex Crap Rounds ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Genuine Comex Crap Coins Collector's Edition World Tour

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:27pm

Come on, get under thirty and....

Provident has a tube of 2013 maples with my name all over it.

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:28pm

Stop QE * Early

  • February 23, 2011, 2:15 PM

Fed’s Plosser: Would Consider Early QE2 End If Economy Accelerates More

Same old shit, same old MOPE.

Someone remind me, did they stop QE 2 early?

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:29pm

BLSBS # tomorrow

should be pretty good because the economy has really been picking up! Here were some highlights from California:

1) Retail- There were some part-time retail jobs created for the holiday sales. Mainly at thrift stores, Wal Marts and 99 cent stores.

2) Entertainment & Media- In my area, there were a few holiday street parties with petting zoos and balloon makers for kids. Those jobs are probably good for $9-10/hour.

3) Transportation & Logistics- an up tick in transportation jobs with extra valet and parking garage attendants. Even a few more road work guys standing around.

4) Travel & Leisure- I saw more people leisurely hanging out at parks and freeway medians. They "travel" to your car to ask for a donation.

<sarcasm off>

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:33pm

Lets quit QE< things are good

WOW, now we see the depths that the policymakers will go to prop this thing up.

Unfortunately there are enough idiots out there who think that a 1.7$$TRILLION

deficit is ok, that the government always has money, no worries..... whats on TV>

Good grief.... how bad must things be when they plumb to these depths to scare off

purchasers. "Trust us, your gold and silver are safe in our vaults"

Then again, when one looks at the money "they" make re-selling PM's at a 100-250/1 ratio,

I guess I would try to keep the charade going too.

It does not take that many of us to buy stuff to REALLY impact things


Jan 3, 2013 - 2:34pm

seeing this put me in for 2

units,, in the TURD contract



Jan 3, 2013 - 2:34pm

Gold Price Drop

Today's drop in the gold price was brought to you by me....because I pulled the handle on an ounce late last night.

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:56pm

How many times have they bombed the metals

before the NFP.s???

Talk about a planned announcement from the FED.. Ending the bond buying late 2013,, yeah right... nothing but talk.. talk..

Economy will not turn around until these EVIL crooks are removed.

The Green Manalishi
Jan 3, 2013 - 2:58pm

Switzerland and Britain are now at currency war

Switzerland and Britain are now at currency war

It seems you can’t debase your coinage these days even if you try.

The Bank of England is straining every sinew to drive down sterling with quantitative easing, and what happens?

The Swiss National Bank trumps Threadneedle Street with an outright blitz of Gilt purchases. They just print it, and buy. The Swiss and UK central banks are effectively fighting a "low intensity" currency war against each other. It has come to this. (I will try to get the charts to demonstrate my point later.)

One awaits with curiosity to see what will happen when Japan – fifteen times the size – kicks in with its own nuclear plans to drive down the yen, and Asia follows suit.

The latest IMF data of central bank holdings (`COFER’) shows the biggest jump in sterling bonds by advanced central banks ever recorded. It jumped from $79bn to $98bn in the third quarter.

These holdings are usually stable so it is obvious that the SNB is responsible. The Swiss are already sated on eurobonds as they frantically intervene to hold the franc at €1.20. By their own admission, they have been diversifying energetically.

Analysts say the SNB has already bought $80bn of EMU bonds, enough to cover half the budget deficits of Euroland over the last year. It has been acting essentially as a conduit for capital flight from Italy to Germany.

It has since branched out, allegedly into Aussies, Loonies (Canada), Scandies, Won?, Real? but above all pounds. "There aren’t many places to go in this ‘ugly contest’ if you don’t like the euro, dollar, or yen," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC.

"Everybody is trying to weaken their currency at the same time. The Swiss have got away with it and now the Japanese want to try. The Sandinavians are pulling their hair out. The Turks are cutting rates even though the economy is overheating, and putting in credit controls instead because they don’t want the currency to rise."

"Policymakers are doing things that if you had suggested four years ago they would have put you in a straitjacket and thrown you in a cell. I don’t rule out anything any longer in this market. Desperate times lead to desperate acts," he said.

Mr Bloom said sterling will wilt soon enough as Britain loses its AAA and graples with its debts. "We have dramatically downgraded our sterling forecast this year to $1.52 on Cable and €0.88 on the euro. The pound is going to come under a lot of pressure."


This blog is not intended to be an attack on the Swiss, valiant defenders of the democratic nation state. What they are doing is entirely understandable. Such intervention creates net global stimulus and does more good than harm in a deflationary world.

Still, we have a very odd situation. Much of the world needs a lower currency and a higher interest rate structure to right the ship. But they can’t all have lower currencies.

Such is the deformed structure bequeathed to us from the Greenspan era. Or is it the China effect, or are they the same thing?

The brilliant Bernard Connolly (ex currency director at the European Commission and later global strategist at AIG) says the rot began in the mid-1990s when the Fed made its Faustian Pact and opted for ever falling real interest rates.

Any thoughts on how we get out of this mess?

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:58pm


Else think we see silver sub 30 tomorrow? After those Fed minutes - MOPE or not - a better than expected print will cause a thrashing of the PM prices. I think we see some pretty gut wrenching price drops throughout January. There is a small but growing voice inside my head causing me to call into question my fundamental investment thesis of stacking gold and silver. I know I won't get any sympathy here as almost everyone on this site believes gold/silver are going multiples higher, but I wonder. There is a growing chorus at the Fed who think QE should end before the end of 2013. All here will state this is just window dressing, but I think it may be beneficial to think what gold and silver prices will look like if this does occur. Is it possible that those purchases of silver at 35 or 36 will be under water for a very long time? I don't know, but I feel myself calling into question much of what is automatically taken for granted here, namely, gold and silver will be unquestionably multiples higher in the future.

Jan 3, 2013 - 2:59pm

Watch US Bonds

10 year and 30 year US bonds extending their recent weakness today. Hitting 8 month high yields now.

Jan 3, 2013 - 3:00pm

10 year at 1.91% 30 year at

10 year at 1.91%

30 year at 3.11%

Yields moving higher, do bond investors really believe Ben won't keep rates down? He will buy whatever it takes, and then more.

Jan 3, 2013 - 3:03pm

New Year - Same Crap

What's old is new again!

No one can fore tell the future and what it brings. When dealing with pricing for gold and silver, all one can do is look in the rear view mirror at past movements in pricing, and push those into the future after averaging.

That being said, gold's closing price for end December 2013 looks to be $1,901.65 and silver at $36.69 (IMHO)

The above is very conservative and barring any "black swan" event, the odds of which happening are good.

In the mean time, we have the same old, same old, to contend with. The more things change - the more they stay the same. This appears to be only to true when observing the political action around the world and the financial market manipulations, at the behest of regulators who aid and abet.

Jan 3, 2013 - 3:05pm

Support area

Looks like there's no such thing support area. EE controlling the market. They can add bunch of contracts. All our dedicated technical analysis falls apart. They just painted daily slow stochastics. It's crossing downward and ready to fall more.

There were another strange thing happened on monthly indicators. During New Year days monthly stochastics was looking fine. But when market opened after New Year monthly stochastics was already crossed and pointing down.

Fat Willie
Jan 3, 2013 - 3:12pm

Drop today

This just feels like traders front-running a potential smash tomorrow. For my .02 and that is exactly what it is worth, I would bet- good NFP we go down but not huge. Bad NFP will reverse today's losses and go above yesterday's high.

On another note- Alf Fields put out his EW forecast and it is quite positive. How do we square that with the clear manipulation in the metals? I have a hard time believing the cartel trying to paint an EW chart. How can that analysis possibly work in this cluster of a market?

Jan 3, 2013 - 3:14pm

Questioning the thesis.

This is looking at the US Debt since 9.30.2001 compared to gold prices.

This correlation will not be broken so easily.

Multiple R 0.984384689
R Square 0.969013216
Adjusted R Square 0.969002209
Standard Error 81.58801103
Observations 2817
Jan 3, 2013 - 3:15pm

and that ladies is the bottom

and that ladies is the bottom in for the day, your combined uber bearish nature confirms it, gradually grind higher into NFP, but the absolute key level to overcome is $1706 on a close and this week $1696/7

Silver will follow gold.


Jan 3, 2013 - 3:15pm

Better Late

Put me down for 3 shares of the Great Comex Robbery.

I think it would fun. And inevitably we would learn something interesting.

Something to tell my grandchildren about.

Who cares if it is a small amount relative to the total market.

Recall that with 100:1 leverage we would take 500,000 oz off the paper market.

And probably get me on somebody's watch list.

But what else is new. Yes I'm talking to you, worthless buggers.


Jan 3, 2013 - 3:16pm

why thee attempt to buy

why thee attempt to buy silver in a corrupt paper market .. just take the dough and buy your self silver coin .. thats the way to fight the battle

i do not understand the herd mentality to pool the dough and then hope for a good outcome

but the old truism herd the turd lol

Jan 3, 2013 - 3:16pm

That explains

That explains gold's muted reaction to QE infinity last month. Those in the know (who obviously passed on a few notes) knew that it was not yet QE infinity. Now with the whole news out ... is this the real turning point? Tomorrows NFP will be interesting.

Jan 3, 2013 - 3:16pm

Fed Minutes!

I guess they are ignoring this sentence????

The minutes covered the Fed's Dec. 11-12 meeting. In a statement after the meeting, the Fed said it planned to keep a key interest rate at a record low even after unemployment falls close to a normal level — which it said might take three more years.

dumpster GoldistheFuture
Jan 3, 2013 - 3:19pm

take the fed minutes and use

take the fed minutes and use to light a fire or line the bird cage

some are still reading that rag as if it means squat.

save time and energy read mad magazine instead


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