Travel Day

Thu, Jan 3, 2013 - 12:06pm

Between packing and heading to the airport, I thought I'd squeeze in this post.

Not much happening today ahead of the FOMC minutes and the BLSBS tomorrow. The metals are consolidating their recent rebound gains and poised to add another leg higher if we can get the headlines we're looking for.

The FOMC minutes will be interesting in that they will be from the meeting back in December when QE∞ was formalized. They'll be released later today so be sure to check ZH or some other news source for the stories.

For now, the metals are hanging around some moving average levels that need to be watched, particularly in silver. I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news. The 20-day, 50-day and 100-day are all in the 31.50-32.50 area and that is where the next level of resistance will be found if the rally can extend higher.

Lastly, everyone needs to watch the 10-year and the Long Bond over the next few days. Both are sitting at critical support levels which, if broken, will lead to lower prices (higher rates). As you know, QE is all about providing buying support for the treasury market and, if the bond market begins to break down, it would be a sign that the current $85B/month isn't sufficient for this purpose. I have no doubt that the $85B/month level will need to be increased in 2013 given the current run rate of a $1.7T+ federal deficit. A falling bond market might make this happen sooner rather than later.

Have a great day. Tomorrow it's back to business as usual and there will be a full, new post sometime after the BLSBS at 8:30 EST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 3, 2013 - 12:11pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:11pm


there's planes with "silver" written on them fyling around?

you forgot to mention the most important thing:


Jan 3, 2013 - 12:13pm

Bond Collapse

I wonder if they will be able to keep it alive this year..... Max Keiser is calling for a bond bubble burst.

Swift Boat Vet
Jan 3, 2013 - 12:13pm

Safe Trip Turd

Hope you all had a blast this time away. Safe trip buddy.


P.S. (Edit) Just realized I was turd! Never posted this early, and wasn't even trying.

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:16pm

I"m way to slow - -

Back to the drawing board.

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:17pm

happy counting

Just wondering if Turd is taking this trip to verify and count his

Safe travels!

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:33pm

a new year summary

Let me see....

1- Asia using the smackdowns (and creating them) to buy physical in serious tonnage and frankly anything else that is a store of value with all those trillions in US paper "assets" a rate that does not drive the price up too fast - check

2-Fed authorized to supply unlimited capitol to their "agent" or "agents" to defend the currency -(sorry "stabilize") - check

3-ECB authorized to buy unlimited bonds/paper/crap to defend the Euro - check

4-Japan moving to unlimited QE - check

5- Non-G7 nations buying physical with both fists (lets rephrase this... selling US paper for something real)

6- uncoupling of physical pricing from Crimex contracts - check

7-extremely tight physical market

8-trillions upon trillions sloshing around looking for a place to stay safe...not to mention all the new trillions being printed into infinity to keep the sheeple asleep and the politicians safe from tar and pitchforks while those markets are propped up to give the illusion of wealth preservation - check and double check

9-...popcorn - check

2013 should be quite the show ... BTFD

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:34pm

Turd's "No comment?"

I see that Turd did not respond to this crazy take-delivery-and-mint-silver-Turds idea. Hmmm.

I agree with others that the single contract will not hasten the fall of manipulation. Moreover, it is likely that this idea will be noticed and we would not be offered a cash settlement premium. But nothing would prevent us from forming a group that designs and mints silver Turd rounds, for those who are interested.

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:36pm

Have a safe flight!

i like their mission statement. could apply directly to silver and silver stackers

Mission Statement: The Silver Standard

Our Mission: To provide our customers with safe, reliable air transportation in an efficient and courteous manner.

Our Promise to our Team Members: We will devote the resources to support their efforts to make our mission a reality, secure our future and result in a fair return for our shareholders.

Our Guiding Principles:

  • We never compromise safety.
  • We treat everyone with respect.
  • We embrace multi-directional communication.
  • We acknowledge our fiscal responsibility within each decision we make.
  • We embrace the ability to question and challenge in a professional manner.
  • We are committed to the development of our Team Members and their success.
  • Teamwork is at the core of all we do.
  • We are honored to serve our customers every day.

Our mission defines the purpose and moral responsibilities of the Silver Airways team. In order to heighten our standard of excellence, we established a set of guiding principles for Team Members to reference in the everyday workplace as a reminder of the key values and concepts we represent. Our actions are a reflection of these principles and we strive to incorporate them into everything we do.

This is an exciting time for Silver Airways and our team. We are undergoing major growth providing a perfect opportunity for us to establish a strong rapport with our customers, and to introduce you to the increased capability, reliability and superior service that we represent. Every Team Member strives to do their part in upholding these principles and to help make our mission a reality.

Doctor J
Jan 3, 2013 - 12:36pm

You're gonna have to fill me in, Doc

I haven't been monitoring the site very closely for the past week or so.

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:43pm

My Dear Extended

My Dear Extended Family,

Here is the recent IMF conclusion on page #47 & #48 on the potential still remaining in the OTC derivative graveyard. This is not from me, but rather from the establishment itself.

The number the IMF is using is way below the huge number of the global problem, and still they conclude that the derivative market is a world class WMD time bomb.

The following is courtesy of CIGA DC browsing on our behalf. This should be a huge concern to any analyst with their eyes open.



TITF - Too Important to Fail Risk

SIFI - Systemically Important Financial Institution Risk

Topology (from the Greek τόπος, "place", and λόγος, "study") - A major area of mathematics concerned with the most basic properties of space, such as connectedness. (wikipedia)


A major hallmark of SIFIs is their activity in financial derivatives markets. The analysis of this paper has one clear message. The global derivatives markets in the post Lehman period, despite considerable compression of bilateral positions, are unstable and they can bring about catastrophic failure. Quite simply, a threat of failure to any of the SIFIs is an immediate threat to the others. The network topology where the very high percentage of exposures is concentrated among a few highly interconnected banks implies that they will stand and fall together. This topological fragility of the derivatives markets as risk sharing institutions has an implicit moral hazard problem that undermines their social usefulness. The empirically calibrated network for derivatives liabilities manifests a highly clustered core- periphery structure and extreme form of TITF as seen in Figures 5.a- 5.f. The implied socialized losses are very large (to the tune of US$350 billion) and the liabilities arising from extant derivatives network structures cannot be supported by the existing capital base. The good news is that the highly clustered network structure permits targeted management of systemic risk. One of the main contributions of the paper is to use network analysis to design a set of surcharges that will enable the SIFIs in the derivatives markets to internalize the costs imposed on other FIs and also the tax payer by their failure.

Link to full report...

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:43pm

Adios Timbo

News- Timmy Geithner to leave before debt ceiling fun and games

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:45pm

well, for one

i was cheering on nebraska over my gator's enemy georgia, butttttt..............

Jan 3, 2013 - 12:49pm

here you go Turd

Turdites - Comex Contract and Take Delivery

Submitted by California Lawyer on January 2, 2013 - 9:30pm. Hat Tip! 26

Summary for those just now joining:

(1) Genius Turdite hatched the idea for Turdites to buy one Comex silver contract, and stand for delivery. It is NOT using paper or fiat, it is stacking, designed to take silver directly from the Comex. (The idea is that we can see once and for all whether the Comex offers paper over and above the closing price, or instead delivers the 5,000 ounces. Then we will all know for sure whether that rumor is true or just a rumor).

(2) The "purchaser" of the contract is a group of Turdites, who pool their money to buy 1 Comex contract. Turdites pledge to take a share or more, once 1000 shares are pledged, the money is collected, given to Andy, who buys the Comex contract and stands for delivery. So far, there are many Turdites who have pledged to buy shares.

(3) If many Turdites contribute just a little, thus making the buy-in minimal, stacking if you will, then the risk is spread around, and which risk spreading operates just like a Lloyds' insurance syndicate. There is no risk of loss of capital, only risk that silver decreases in price and we overpaid. I am happy to take that risk, because I am a stacker and I value my silver in ounces stacked, not in fiat price per ounce.

(4) If 1000 Turdites pledge to contribute for one share, the buy in is 1/1000th of the full contract. Personally, I am in for at least 2 shares, or more, depending.

(5) One Comex contract is 5,000 ounces, so each share is 5 oz., or about $150-160 per buy in, depending upon price when contract is purchased.

(6) Another Turdite genius suggested that we take delivery, then have the 5,000 ounces turned into speciality rounds.

There you have it.

Fat Willie
Jan 3, 2013 - 12:56pm


It starts on page 2 on the "reality bites" thread. The original thought was to pool resources to get a silver contract and stand for delivery. It has evolved a lot since. California lawyer posted a good summary late in the thread.

The current thinking is we stand for delivery and then mint "turds" for distribution amp g the buyers. The point- stack heavy, and take it directly from the belly of the beast. Risk is small per buyer, so buyers would have to accept the potential loss. But it would be a small step in taking the fight to the EE.

Many are in favor, many wont participate. Would be individual choice. But we do need a sponsor we can all trust to help us get organized. You were nominated, along with enlisting Andy's help with the contract purchase.

At last count I believe we had 8% of the funds pledged.

There you go.

Edward G
Jan 3, 2013 - 1:00pm

Not enough

We know it's not enough, and I've felt they know it's not. The luke-warm response from the markets post-QEx, market-juicing I said once before, either that or it was a really skillful pick just to be enough to prevent cold turkey...

Now we can also see how the coming serious stuff will play out in US Gov (I am a Brit btw).... it's the same the world over: Gov's that are expected to be the saviours can not be brought to throw the sheeple/po' folks under the bus with massive spending cuts, whether that's the intellectual imperative or not... in the most basic moral perspective of people it's not a palatable option...Brits and Euros have not even begun to countenance that option, the Conservative Party have pretended to, but spending is still rising.

People seem to view the likes of the T Party as sociopathic, there is no equivalent really anywhere else....FWIW I think they might be a little unrealistic in what they think they can achieve, it's so hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube now... the western world doesn't want a puritanical 'spare the rod and spoil the child' purge, so it will have to keep on cruisin' for a bruisin', a bruisin' that can be blamed not on action but attributed to an extreme economic weather's a horrific prospect, personally I think it's quite impressive on one level, the crisis management act of levitation since 2008, from the nanny state which is expected to deliver...

no great insight here I know....But we know it's not and can never be enough. Oh dear.

Grigeo Fat Willie
Jan 3, 2013 - 1:02pm

Taking delivery

from Crimex. As opposed to using the vehicle Mr. T already spent so much work on - The Hard Assets Alliance.

And why set our target so low, why don't we take on the Fed, like JFK did ? Of course, he was well aware of the risks, and it didn't end well.

Jan 3, 2013 - 1:07pm

Ignore List

A belated Happy and prosperous New Year to all.

As a sign of a better year, and more tolerance for the antagonists on TFMR, I have deleted my Ignore List.

We all start over!


Urban Roman
Jan 3, 2013 - 1:08pm

@ Turd

Just read yesterday's thread. Start with this comment:

Then there are about six or seven pages of debate and discussion, and someone compiled a list of "sure, count me in" comments here:

... followed by more discussion. Dr. J posted a really good one here:

Jan 3, 2013 - 1:09pm

Well Wishes

Thanks, for the quick post, bonne voyage, safe and pleasant flight.

Best wishes for a happy, prosperous, peaceful 2013 to all the good hearted souls who populate TFMR.

Peace and good cheer to all.


"May the wind be at your back, the road rise to meet your feet, the sun shine warmly upon your face, all your days."

Quote -unknown at least to me at this time.. SilverBee. :0)

Jan 3, 2013 - 1:14pm

Silver Airways

Hopefully for them, the airline comparison with silver ends after the mission statement. Otherwise, travel would be very choppy with some pretty violent down drafts (thermal manipulation). Could cause nausea for infrequent flyers.

Despite thermals and white-knucklers, the ticket prices should be increasing steadily as altitude is gained. $31 tickets are a steal but will not last.

Jan 3, 2013 - 1:14pm

It's a Good Idea.... But

A good idea for sure Guys. Kind of like a Co- op....

But I don't think the Donkey is ever allowed to get the Carrot...?

Jan 3, 2013 - 1:15pm

Ignore list


Fabulous idea! I, too, am deleting my ignore list. That one person will have to earn their way back on with rude and annoying posts.


CA and others summed up the thread nicely

Jan 3, 2013 - 1:17pm

Turd... anyone?

Maybe I missed, but have there been any comments on whether the silver suit dismissal being associated in any way with the HEH expectation? Just wondering.

Jan 3, 2013 - 1:22pm

Silver Metal

Nose Dives

Ilya Repin
Jan 3, 2013 - 1:23pm
Jan 3, 2013 - 1:25pm

200-day MA

"I've got the 200-day MA at 30.85 and, so far, that level has acted as support. Let's hope that it holds above there and begins to move higher after all of the news" . . .

Unfortunately, it looks like the 200 day failed as support. I think BLS report tomorrow is better than expected, and metals get smashed. I think silver is heading below 29. I also believe we are in for a trying and exhausting first 6 months of the year. Jesse thought the cartel would try to start the new year by smashing the PMs in order to throw a curve ball to the markets . . . we'll see.

J.P. Cubish
Jan 3, 2013 - 1:30pm

I'm Down

I'd be down for pitching in on a Comex contract, only for the silver Turd. With only 5000 minted it would be a real collectors piece. I have a feeling that such a small run of coins would be really expensive to make, adding significantly to each "Share" in the bar. I can't see how else the investors would be paid out though - unless we got some paper back, but I already got that going on with Sprott.

Island Teal
Jan 3, 2013 - 2:00pm

Happy New Years - enjoy some music !!

A wonderful concert

Video unavailable
Jan 3, 2013 - 2:00pm

Ignore List

I'm going to do the opposite and put everyone on ignore.

Then my posts will be the only ones I'll see.



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