Reality Bites

276
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 11:02am

So, let's see. The fiscal cliff "deal" involves massive tax increases and no spending cuts. NO! Really? You don't say. And now, all those who were selling and shorting the metals are getting squeezed. Welcome to 2013.

I'm still on vacation and won't officially be back "on the throne" until Friday morning...just in time for the latest BLSBS. For now, we should all be pleased with this rally in the metals. I'd mentioned last evening that I wanted to see $1690+ and $31+ and, this morning, we've got it. This doesn't mean it's time to sound the All Clear yet but it is definitely an encouraging development, as you can plainly see on these hourly charts.

Regardless of the very short term movements, I still expect vigorous rallies from here as reality sets in for 2013:

  • The U.S. fiscal and economic picture has worsened.
  • No doubt another debt downgrade is coming.
  • Spec long money, which was squared up and exited the market in December, is already coming back in.
  • QE∞ is now guaranteed to last through 2015 and beyond and $85B/month will be proven to be insufficient. Watch out for the BLSBS. A surprisingly lousy number will give the smartypant shorts a true religious experience on Friday.

For now, let's just hold and consolidate these gains and then make runs to and through $1700 and $32. I'll be able to give more specific targets once I'm back in the office.

Lastly, this article was posted to ZH yesterday so you might have missed it. Very interesting with some particularly telling charts. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-01/what-happened-last-time-gold-and-central-banks-were-so-far-apart. (I'll tell you what's "afoot". Massive price suppression, that's what!)

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  276 Comments

huiaid
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:03am

First

First?? Must be my good day.

achmachat
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:04am

Woohoo

Good to have you with us We missed you, Turd!

Ned Bradenhuiaid
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:07am

Second?

Second?

ScottJ
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:10am

Palladium an indicator?

Seems to be pretty well correlated (mirrored) except for exaggeration moves in gold/silver. If so, nice indications afoot.

Weekly:

OneTime
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:11am

Thurd?

Wow!

Edit...Fourth is nice for such a newbie.

Thanks Turd. Enjoy the rest of your vacation.

Happy New Year to all.

Big L
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:11am

The year of personal honesty

My New Years resolution.

Edit, I'd like to thank Turd for his years of personal honesty, up front and out in the open, he's been a role model for me. I hope to follow his lead in a way that makes me proud of myself.

ACM
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:11am

Happy New Year

Stack with increased intensity. God Bless all. We surely will need it as this year is going to be a heck of a ride

Nick Elway
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:13am

Ron Paul Dec 31

Video unavailable
Odin
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:19am
ivars
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:20am

Yeah, some squeeze

Is happening.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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