Random Thoughts

Thu, Dec 27, 2012 - 2:31pm

As you know, I'm on a bit of a vacation but I do have a couple of random thoughts for you.

First of all, I hated the close of silver today. Look at the chart below and notice that silver was dumped, beginning at 1:23 EST, two minutes before the close. Similar to all the odd-hour and low volume-hour dumping we've seen recently, today's dump was clearly designed for effect and not for efficient execution. Does it portend more weakness and another raid? Probably. I'd put the chances at at least 50/50. If you can stomach it, keep an eye n silver overnight.

Next, as you can see, the dumping was limited to silver. The gold chart does not show the same drop.

And the longer term, hourly chart in gold continues to improve. IF we can avoid a raid and actually rally from here, gold might enter 2013 with a halfway decent looking chart. The key will be the action tomorrow and Monday. Let's see if gold can first extend through 1670 and then 1680. A move back UP through 1690 would be very positive, indeed. Keep your fingers crossed.

Crude has hung in there today and continues to trade north of $90. Tomorrow will be the key day. Will it hang in there and make a weekly close above $90 or will it fall back? Watch closely.

Lastly, please don't get distracted by all of the misinformation and SPIN regarding this fiscal cliff nonsense. The faulty analysis and outright lies being presented in the media might cause you to doubt yourself. Do not let this happen and DO NOT SELL YOUR METAL! Every political eventuality is precious metal bullish and you should be using this current weakness to aggressively add to your stack.

That's all for now.


p.s. Vacationing with two teenage can effect one's musical tastes, sometimes for the better. In this case, I present part of the soundtrack of this current holiday. Enjoy!

Video unavailable
Video unavailable

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


department of truth
Dec 27, 2012 - 2:36pm


Ho ho ho,

the cartel is shorting, shorting, shorting

price keeps dropping, dropping, dropping,

we keep on buying, buying, buying!!

soon they will be confiscating, confiscating, confiscating!!!$)%^*$(&@

Dec 27, 2012 - 2:37pm

today's lesson

do. not. sell. your. metal.

simple enough.. got it :-)

Dec 27, 2012 - 2:39pm

top 5

thats right....

Dec 27, 2012 - 2:40pm

Chart Simplicity

Wanted to take a shot at #1 and just missed!

Don't overcomplicate your investment horizon.

Look at any yearly chart of G&S - it looks as if both PM's are putting in higher lows off the bottom this summer.

Stair-step higher.

Explosion can wait; what's the hurry?

Dec 27, 2012 - 2:41pm

Happy New Year to All

Happy New Year a few days early! smiley

Protect yourself and do it now!


old tradesman
Dec 27, 2012 - 2:47pm
Swift Boat Vet
Dec 27, 2012 - 2:48pm

Hey Turd! Nice hearing from ya

Been adding to the stack in this beat down and still have more dry powder (% free $ 'til 3/1) I dare 'em to slam it more !!

That music vid reminds me of the '60s Motown, do-wop etc. LOL

The more things change, the more they stay the same.


P.S. WOW !! Numbah seven !! Never posted so high before

Dec 27, 2012 - 2:50pm

Can Anyone Help

I was returning some SBSS coins to the mint through USPS. I printed a label on line with signature confirmation. I took it the post office and the clerk taped the label on priority mail package, but she failed to scan the package in. She does not deny receiving the package and putting the label on. Anyway the package is missing Inspector General cannot find the coins. I failed to buy insurance, not to smart, but does anyone think there is any recourse being the postal clerk did not follow protocol?

Dec 27, 2012 - 2:51pm

Buying Silver?

Greetings Turdites! Haven't visited here for a while but I found something to share with this fine community.

When buying your PM's, always be sure to bring along your magnifying glass, a magnet and some common sense. That enticing 1906 Walking Liberty Half may not be real...


Dec 27, 2012 - 3:02pm

Silver chart looks fine to

Silver chart looks fine to me. Just some HFT and MOPE beating it down to previous support.

This very tight condensing down here feels like a bottom. Waterfalls work on momentum selling, not capitulation.

And the current news stories certainly can't be seen as a negative in fundamental world.

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:02pm
Swift Boat Vet
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:02pm

Bruno's Got that Syncro Dance goin' on, Eh?? '60s ?? do over


Here's another great oldie

Video unavailable

History repeats?


Dec 27, 2012 - 3:03pm

@ Mammoth

I don't think silver is magnetic, so presumably you are saying that if the coin is magnetic, that it isn't silver, yes?

Note that if the coin is not magnetic, it might still not be silver, so this is not a comprehensive check, and only supports a greater program of checks.

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:10pm

I love these low prices

cuz I am a buyer!

a guy just sold me 140 morgans and peace dollars

woo hoo!

hope they survive the trip across the lake!

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:12pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:12pm

Austerity in California - Firsthand Account

I am not trying to hijack the thread at all, and also let me say I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

I turned off the computer for awhile; it felt relaxing for sure. But, today, something so profound popped into my head, that I had to share.

I will be doing some light work until after New Year's holiday. But today, I had to appear in Court for a hearing on a case that is going to trial in February.

The court hearing was normal, no big deal. It was in Victorville, which is part of the San Bernardino County Superior Court, which is itself part of the State of California Court system. (Federal Court is different). State Court is paid for by state taxes, and user fees. The State of California is broke, as all of us know. But, through accounting and budgeting gimmicks, the state limps along.

Until now, that is.

We had all heard from on high that the Court budget was going to be shaved a bit, like all parts of the State budget. The simple way it works, is there is a central planning authority, which allocates budgets to the various counties in California. For fiscal year 2013, the Superior Court for the County of San Bernardino had to absorb an enormous budget hit, something like over a hundred million dollars. I know this sounds like a lot of money, and it is. I am not privy to the actual numbers, but only to the big round number conclusions. The Los Angeles County Superior Court also had a major budget hit, as did all the rest of the counties in the State. The point is, that each county gets to allocate its own court money as it sees fit. So, there is some local control over how the money is spent, but there is no control over how much the county gets.

Now understand that the individual counties are charged with the entirety of their court systems, including the buildings, maintenance, personnel, the whole thing. New construction is paid for by the state, but existing operations are all paid for out of the money that comes from Sacramento.

In each separate courtroom, there is a judicial officer, whether a judge or commissioner, a clerk or two, a courtroom attendant, and perhaps a sworn deputy or more if it is a criminal court. Where I practice, in civil, there are no longer deputies, instead, there are courtroom attendants, who wear blue coats, white shirts, have no gun, and basically check in the attorneys, shuffle papers, babysit the jury, etc.

Well, today, in Victorville, I was told directly by the judge, that the entire county of San Bernardino, the largest geographical county in the entire USA, is shutting the Barstow, Big Bear and Needles courthouses entirely. Shutting the doors, locking them, closing them down outright. Other courthouses in the county were shuttered last year, like Chino, Redlands and some others.

The staff in each of the affected courthouses are either being downsized or transferred, if there are positions available. The cases at the various closed courthouses are being transferred to Victorville, or to downtown San Bernardino, or Rancho Cucamonga. All the civil cases, which is what I do, are being centralized to either San Bernardino or Rancho.

So, if a person or a business entity has a civil dispute in Victorville, whether a car accident, a dog bite, sexual harassment, breach of contract, etc., then that person or business has to travel 40 miles or more to San Bernardino to go to court.

So too, the people of Barstow area now have to travel over an hour to get to the San Bernardino courthouse. Folks in Blythe have to travel 2 hours, one way to get to a courthouse.

These folks are losing govt services, no two ways about it. Same taxes, but loss of services.

What are these folks going to do? The justice system is breaking in front of us.

Traffic tickets are routinely now over $500 apiece. That represents a significant portion of one's monthly pay or govt benefits. Traffic tickets are now a tax upon a constituency which has no voice. All of that revenue goes to the county. Is there any bias there? Does anyone believe that a sitting judge will find a person not guilty on a simple traffic ticket, when the county stands to earn significant revenue from those poor saps who find themselves in the cross hairs of the state agent (CHP, local police, sheriff, etc.) looking to enhance revenue for the county?

What services are going to be the last ones to be cut? The judges' salaries? The Court staff? The Praetorian guards who keep those with power in power?

Austerity is upon us, right here, right now. And, there has not even been a formal default. What happens when there is a municipal bond default? What happens when the irresistible force (CalPers) meets the immovable object (public employee unions), like, for example, when either CalPers prevails in its effort to secure tens of millions of dollars in missed payments, or the public union employees successfully abrogate the arrearages owed to CalPers?

All eyes need to be on California. What happens here is coming to every place else.

Sorry for the downer!

Happy New Year!

Feed the Turd! How about another hat contest? Closing price of the Comex for silver spot, April 1, 2013? Why not?

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:13pm

America's First! Silver Dollar

On September 2, 1776, Thomas Jefferson recommended to Congress that the new country should adopt the silver Spanish milled dollar as our monetary unit of value. Congress agreed, making the 8 Reales Spanish Silver Dollar the official dollar of the Continental Congress. The reason why they chose it was because it was the U.S. Dollar of its day, the currency used everywhere around the world to buy and sell goods. The "Piece of Eight," as we know it from pirate legends, was also the most sought—after coin by those who stole them from everybody else! Our Founding Fathers carried them in their pockets every day, and if the legend that George Washington threw a Silver Dollar over the Potomac is true, this is the dollar he tossed. The design is also quite intriguing and historical. The two pillars on the reverse represent the Pillars of Hercules off the coast of Spain, where the Atlantic and Mediterranean meet. The ribbons read PLUS and ULTRA, meaning "More Beyond." Look closely at the ribbon wrapping around the left pillar. This is the source of our $ sign! Each is almost exactly the size and weight of a Morgan Silver Dollar, because, well, that Silver Dollar was modeled after this Silver Dollar! Dates vary between 1772 and 1832.

First official $1 bill of the US

Former Secretary of the Treasury (under Lincoln) Salmon P. Chase was in the enviable position of designing the original US $1 bill in 1862. So who do you think he put on that bill? Himself, of course. Chase wanted to be President, and he figured that having his face on popular currency would be killer buzz-marketing — obviously, that didn’t pan out. Chase’s visage also graces the obverse of the 1929 $10,000 bill, as a kind of consolation prize for his demotion from $1 fame. Other relevant fun facts: the “P” in Salmon P. Chase stands for “Portland”; Chase National Bank was named after him (though he wasn’t actually involved in its operation); and in 1869 George Washington replaced Chase on our $1 notes — by that time, Chase was a member of the Supreme Court, busily declaring his own creation of the greenback to be unconstitutional.

Today on EBAY:

errrr? keep stacking those paper dollars?

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:18pm

There will be no resolution

Until just before 'Bamas inauguration. 

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:23pm

Congress will reconvene on

Congress will reconvene on Sunday. That sends PMs in after hours, stocks, EUR up, bonds down. Is it not amazing?

So there is still hope in the market fiscal cliff will be avoided, to some extent or as a result of secret talks.

And if not?

All todays action just reaction to rumors and news about possibility to negotiate fiscal cliff away. 

But still within the wrongly made downtrending modified Shiff pitchfork I have been using for few weeks now-today hit the top of the fork (0) within a millimeter, backed off. I would expect perhaps another try at the top resistance, but generally overnight move at the same range - 30, 10-30,25, may be less.

old tradesman
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:25pm

@cal law

I cant believe your still there

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:28pm

@Cal Law

See my post on last page of previous thread. BTW I waved as I went by! :)

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:29pm

Back to the LCS tomorrow...

If the wife angry complains I'll just tell her they were on sale... and it won't be a lie!

Always works for her...cool

Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:29pm

RE, There will be no resolution Submitted by Hagarth

 There will not be any resolution then either, or any time in the future.

 O is not interested in resolving anything, he is only interested in destruction.

 Once you get used to that notion, it is all very predictable.

my mothers keeper
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:47pm

bond market crash

hello all and happy holidays!

i've been studying the impact of a bond market crash. i don't entirely understand bonds, but i get it that if interest rates start to rise, the price of bonds will start to fall so those who are invested in bonds will see their investment drop in value. this is a bond market crash, true?

this is what i don't understand...what could cause interest rates to rise? so long as the fed is the market, why couldn't they simply continue to keep interest rates at 0%, thereby avoiding a bond market crash?

since so many are predicting a bond market crash, i must be missing something. can anyone fill in the blanks?

tia, litf

Fred Hayek
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:48pm

@CA lawyer have you seen this?

I apologize if you've discussed this before. But I've seen articles about this in a couple places. The authors claim that Cali has $577 billion in assets that it pretends it doesn't have and therefor claims to be broke and must raise taxes. What's your take on this?


old tradesman
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:49pm

@There will be no resolution

but yes there will be #1 first amendment #2 second amendment #3 your retirement(to pay down the banker debts) #4 BTFD TODAY


Dec 27, 2012 - 3:50pm

Posted to Diane Feinstein Just Now

My rant, emailed to this windbag: https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/e-mail-me

I am strongly against your effort to enact your proposed gun control legislation. I want a detailed explanation of how firearms possessed lawfully do any harm. Where are the statistics showing gun crime by persons illegally possessing firearms? What good would yet another paper law do to prevent gun violence? Why are you not enforcing existing laws? How come gang bangers in Los Angeles have unlimited weapons? Why are there no prosecutions for the Fast and Furious gun running scandal? I have no doubt that your proposed legislation stems from a desire to help the citizens, in light of the tragic recent events, but surely you must know that passing yet more laws upon the law abiding does NOTHING to stop the criminals!! Taking away guns from the law abiding is treasonous, and a direct violation of the Second Amendment. What is your authority to disregard a key Bill of Rights provision? Are you so presumptuous to believe that you alone know best? Why is it that politicians think they know better? What are you doing about runaway entitlement spending? When are you politicians going to do something to help us, rather than take away more liberties? I expect nothing from you other than for you to advance the socialist, progressive agenda. I am not really looking for you to do anything that I actually believe will matter. I know I am wasting my time. But, I wanted to go on record as strongly opposing your efforts.
Admiral Ag Bar
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:55pm
Eric Original
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:58pm

Boycott farmed salmon

Insist on wild salmon, or none at all.


Just another link in the food chain, being fucked for profit.

Dec 27, 2012 - 3:58pm

@Cal: Or maybe this? :)

Dear Ms. Fienstein; Come and take it you pinko-commie-symp. If you dare. Sincerely, Roark

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