Odds & Ends

180
Wed, Dec 26, 2012 - 6:05pm

Not much happening on this day after Christmas but I found a few things for you to consider.

It has been a very quiet, rangebound trade since the conclusion of the last raid back on Thursday. The HFTs are in charge and they are alternately jamming price slightly higher and lower as they attempt to fatten some profits before year-end. The result is 3 days of market boredom with silver in a 50¢ range and seemingly going nowhere. Gold is stuck, too, but at least shows some signs of life. It double-bottomed near $1640 late last week and has since recovered quite nicely. IF it can get some traction here and move UP through $1680 and then $1690, it will actually enter 2013 with a positive-looking chart. Let's just see what the rest of this week holds.

The only market that held any excitement today was crude. Recall that we've been watching crude in a range from $85-90 since mid-October. Today, it finally broke higher and through $90, with the Feb13 closing at $91.17. Now the question is: Can it hold the breakout tomorrow and Friday or will it simply fall back down under $90? IF it can hold, it will set up an early 2013 test of the $95 level and IF it gets above there, a return trip to $100 awaits. Two things:

  1. $100 crude would definitely be supportive of higher metals prices.
  2. The situation in the MENA has been "hot" for some time now with various headlines going and coming. However, crude has remained below $90. Suddenly, today, it's $91. Hmmmm....

Finally, if you're like me you're probably looking for something to do, so, below is a YouTube link to a documentary. This show was mentioned in a ZH thread last week and I took the time to watch it. It's a fascinating story about the "Flash Crash" of May 2010. It's relevant here simply because the focus is High Frequency Trading and, as you know, those damn WOPRs have been wreaking havoc in the metals pits for some time now. Here are some background links to pique your interest:

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-03/doug-kass-kill-quants-their-technology-they-kill-us

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/joe-saluzzi-hft-parasites-are-killing-market-host

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-11/guest-post-five-minute-example-hft-shenanigans

And here's the show:

Flash Crash 2010 - VPRO documentary - 2011

That's all for now. Hang in there and keep the faith.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  180 Comments

ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 5:49am

Mixed up pitchforks a bit, now

It seems this modified Shiff pitchfork (needed to be modified as the drag of holiday inaction ( 24) made price downward trend less steep) at work since December 12th, 2012, is now a better fit. Silver approaching median from the bottom right now.

Bum in the library... ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 6:18am

Ivars, I'm using a Schiff

Ivars, I'm using a Schiff pitchfork with almost exact points:

https://screencast.com/t/2wVLfWZQQtV9

ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 7:11am

@Bum in the Library

These are nice, right, especially when they fit. You have more steep pitchfork as your point a is more to the right.

Whatever, silver price did not like hitting that median of mine and went down immediately.

In your case, it is a bit out now in the wild, above top of fork. It may bounce off the top, lets see:). That would be bullish.

So far it made a bearish move on my pitchfork. Exactly on median, is it not amazing? Are people really trading according to these or somehow these pitchforks catch the trend very well. Seems they tend to be right until they are wrong:)

Groaner
Dec 27, 2012 - 7:26am

Whacka mole again

usd down, eruo stocks up, smack gold and silver to get the crowd depressed.

We love our job..

Bum in the library... ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 7:39am

I actually had to tweak mine

I actually had to tweak mine a bit but still using a Schiff. I think different charting software charts them differently.

https://screencast.com/t/kh65ApzFt3

Groaner Bum in the library...
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:00am

Bum

Lets face it.. that is a very bearish chart.. correct???

Starting out to look like another smash coming.. kids..

They have to grab all they can in these thin markets..

Today last December the metals rose after the beat down.. Maybe?

Bum in the library... Groaner
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:05am

I'm hesitant to rush in long

I'm hesitant to rush in long at the moment... but I'm watching. I'd say we are trying to find a bottom but the holidays and politics are in the way.

ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:13am

Shiff and @ Groaner

I actually draw my from the definition by hand transforming of Andrews pitchfork as my soft does not draw any Shiff pitchforks:)

It is bearish, as the whole trend is and fundamentals as well as far as fiscal cliff is not resolved. So far it seems market does not really know, but with each day /each non-success in talks PMs will be driven lower until cliff is priced in. There are still too many scenarios possible after cliff so these will make PMs extremely news sensitive in near term.

USDx does not mean much currently. If USG debt creation speed falls, all fiats (except yen, obviously) increase in value vs. gold as far as their value include with minus sign discounted future USG debt values.

StevenBHorse
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:19am

US government debt has been slowing since 2009

Directly from the OMB.

Btw, if the US goes over the cliff then a recession is assured.

A recession will lower receipts in spite of any proposed measure to increase them.

Net net, the deficit will most likely INCREASE.

Receipts Outlays Surplus/Deficit

2008 1,865,945 2,507,793 -641,848
2009 1,450,980 3,000,661 -1,549,681
2010 1,531,037 2,901,531 -1,370,494
2011 1,737,678 3,104,455 -1,366,777
2012 1,896,459 3,290,381 -1,393,922
Groaner
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:27am

Whats wrong with this picture?

metals go up when the comex opens???

I cant recall ever seeing such a thing, hahaha.

maybe??

OOOPs, spoke to soon,,

ClinkinKY
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:28am
Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:31am

@ Groaner

If you look at it on the three day chart, they may just be trying to duplicate yesterday. It seems to work for them.

rtabit
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:38am

@Bum and Ivars Pitchforks

Pitchforks should be drawn high-low-high or low-high-low pivots, your forks look to me high-high-low, this makes them invalid. They may work but it's just a coincidence, it's not really a pitchfork.

Groaner
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:44am

I cant believe that the QE4 has not had any good

effect on the metals,, This is absurd.

This fiscal cliff thing is being milked for all its worth, to death. We all know they will do whats wrong and just increase the debt limit..

ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:55am

@rtabit

Thanks, next ones will be proper pitchforks.

ClinkinKY
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:58am
alphamorph
Dec 27, 2012 - 8:58am

Jim Rogers is always fun

Here's a few quotes and takes from yesterday's interview with Kitco:

"Gold has been correcting for 16 months. It has been going sideways since September 2011 and I would expect that (correction) to continue. I am not buying gold; I am not selling gold; I am sitting and watching. (I hope) I’ll buy more if it goes down. If it goes down a lot, I hope I’ll buy a lot more but I will buy it while going up if the US goes to war with Iran. It just depends on what’s happening in the world.”

“This will be the 12th consecutive year that gold rises without a down year. That is EXTREMELY unusual. I know of no other asset that has done that for 12 years without a down year. It’s very unusual what’s happening in gold.”

Rogers said that he’s worried about the US dollar but owns some. With so many countries intent on debasing their currencies, he prefers the Swiss franc but is noticeably uncomfortable with any of those choices or in recommending any one of them. He pointed to central bank currency printing this year as the reason for the rise in stock prices, bonds and “a lot of other assets”. He complained that, “the US central bank keeps buying bonds!”

He was neither asked about silver nor did he comment on it however Rogers pointed to nothing discernable worth buying at this time.

For 2013, he recommended that you “only invest in what you know a lot about. If you don't know anything about stocks, you shouldn’t be buying or selling stocks. We’ve had very difficult times and (we’re coming into) very difficult times. If you don’t know what you’re doing, you’re better doing nothing. Put your money into a bank and earn 1/2 percent if that's what it takes. It's better to do that than lose 1/2 percent per year."

He closed by saying “I hope we all survive 2013”.

Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:14am

RE,With your permission Mr. Fix:) Submitted by ClinkinKY

Permission granted, I was trying to figure out how to do that myself.yes

Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:15am

@ ClinkinKY

First,I would like to thank you for publishing that map,

because I am on it, and I would not have known about it otherwise.

Second, I would like to thank you for publishing the second map,

because it helps point out who the scumbags are, and where they live.

And thirdly, I would like to point out the comments section after the second map, there are some really good ones there.

One of my favorites:

https://conservativecalling.com...

Patrancus
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:35am

Found this

Murphs's holiday special

Holiday Special - $99 FOR A SIX MONTH CAFÉ MEMBERSHIP

was thinking maybe the next 6 months could be the ride of a lifetime

agNau
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:37am
Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:44am

I am seeing another selloff in progress,

At least they waited until "brunchtime" yesterday, I guess that in retrospect they didn't need to let it go quite that high.

Overlaying daily charts like the KITCO three day version, can often give a clue as to their intended direction.

however, they often throw in an occasional curveball such as changing the time of day, or the strength of their pounding, just to keep it interesting.

So far, I see absolutely no evidence to dissuade me from my opinion that these metals are not going anywhere until there is a systemic collapse.

But don't worry, it shouldn't be long now. The great “fiscal cliff” debate (whose sole purpose is to distract us from reality,)

will be ending in just a few more days.

Then, it will be "off the cliff" for all of us. (In reality, we fell off that cliff a long time ago)

after we have hit the canyon floor, and splattered into an unrecognizable carcass of what we once were,

then, if we are lucky, metals will be be priced to reflect their true value.

Survival until then will be key, and we may need to endure some time between now and then where their “official price” is lower than anyone is willing to sell them for.

Just keep stacking while you can, time is short.

“The end of the great Keynesian experiment,” is upon us, and it will not end well.

tpbeta
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:45am

Call that a selloff?

Seems pretty tame to me.

Groaner
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:47am

Silver is showing much more strength than gold

that is strange. Keeping a lid on for some reason. crooks.

5500 contracts weighted to the downside on gold.. not good.

Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 9:59am

@ tpbeta,Okay, I stand corrected.

I was simply commenting in the context of "Groaner's" early morning Spike.

The divergence of the two metals, might reveal some of the thinking involved in all of the past couple of days stories pertaining to gold. Although the British mainstream press would like to instill a little bit of confidence in their government, by showing an enormous pile of "gold", they will happily slam the price down if anyone actually buys it.

I think some people are done accumulating their stash, and would just as soon see the great moonshot we are all anticipating. In the meantime, there are others like those on the COMEX go are not quite ready for that yet,

and never will be.

I'm sure it will all shake out shortly. Live 24 hour Gold Chart

Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 10:16am

Let's see, if my current thinking is correct.

Previously, I theorized that today's pattern would show a lot of similarities to yesterday's,

yesterday as it crossed the 10 AM line, we had a small “waterfall” on the chart.

If it follows the pattern, we will see a nosedive in the next few minutes.

Does anybody really want to go long right now? I think not.

If it's all about managing perceptions, they are evil geniuses. Even if they do nothing at all right now, they win.

Keep stacking.

Edit:

Surprise surprise, it stopped following yesterday's pattern. So much for my 10 min. attempt at reading charts,

I never had any faith in them anyway.

PS, don't ever trade paper on my advice, the manipulation is solely designed to clean out paper traders.

This is why I gave up attempting to profit from these moves myself.

Just keep stacking, then none of these hourly gyrations will have any effect on you at all.

ancientmoney
Dec 27, 2012 - 10:18am

This quote sounds about right . . .

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the US public believes is false." -William J. Casey, 1981 we are there

The elite were programming for 30+ years, at least.

(Quote taken from 321gold website)

rtabit
Dec 27, 2012 - 10:22am

@Bum

OK now for downtrending forks you want to use high-low-high pivots, and for uptrending low-high-low.

ancientmoney
Dec 27, 2012 - 10:27am

Taken from a doug Casey interview . . .

also at 321gold website:

"In the old days, when Jesse James or other thieves robbed a bank, all the citizens would turn out to engage them in a gun battle in the streets. Why? Because it was actually their money being stored in the bank, not the bankers' money.

A robbed bank had immense personal consequences for everyone in town. Today, nobody gives a damn if a bank is robbed. They'll get their money back from a US government agency. The bank has become impersonal; most aren't locally owned. And your deposit has been packaged up into some unfathomable security nobody is responsible for.

The whole system has become corrupt. It degrades the very concept of money. This relates to why kids don't save coins in piggy banks anymore - it's because they're no longer coins with value; they're just tokens that are constantly depreciating and essentially worthless. All of US society is about as sound as the dollar now.

Actually, it can be argued that robbing a bank isn't nearly as serious a crime today as robbing a candy store of $5. Why? Nobody in particular loses in the robbery of today's socialized banks. But the candy merchant has to absorb the $5 loss personally. Anyway, if you want to rob a bank today, you don't use a gun. You become part of management and loot the shareholders through outrageous salaries, stock options, and bonuses, among other things. I truly dislike the empty suits that fill most boardrooms today."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The interview was on the morality of money. read it all here:

https://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey122712.html

DayStar
Dec 27, 2012 - 10:40am

RE: Price Gyrations

Mr. Fix, silver just shot up. You were just a few minutes too early. smiley

DayStar

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 2/18

2/20 2:00 ET January FOMC Minutes
2/21 8:30 ET Dec Durable Goods and Capital Equipment
2/21 8:30 ET Feb Philly Fed
2/21 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svcs PMIs
2/21 10:00 ET Jan Existing Home Sales
2/22 Day long Fed Goon appearance at Chicago Booth Policy Forum

Key Economic Events Week of 2/11

2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
2/13 8:30 ET CPI and three Goon speeches
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales (December)
2/14 8:30 ET PPI
2/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
2/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 2/4

2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
2/5 9:45 ET Service PMIs
2/5 9:00 pm ET Trump SOTU
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
2/7 9:30 ET Goon Clarida speech
2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Recent Comments

by scoremore, Feb 22, 2019 - 7:20pm
by RickshawETF, Feb 22, 2019 - 6:42pm
by boomer sooner, Feb 22, 2019 - 6:36pm
randomness