Odds & Ends

180
Wed, Dec 26, 2012 - 6:05pm

Not much happening on this day after Christmas but I found a few things for you to consider.

It has been a very quiet, rangebound trade since the conclusion of the last raid back on Thursday. The HFTs are in charge and they are alternately jamming price slightly higher and lower as they attempt to fatten some profits before year-end. The result is 3 days of market boredom with silver in a 50¢ range and seemingly going nowhere. Gold is stuck, too, but at least shows some signs of life. It double-bottomed near $1640 late last week and has since recovered quite nicely. IF it can get some traction here and move UP through $1680 and then $1690, it will actually enter 2013 with a positive-looking chart. Let's just see what the rest of this week holds.

The only market that held any excitement today was crude. Recall that we've been watching crude in a range from $85-90 since mid-October. Today, it finally broke higher and through $90, with the Feb13 closing at $91.17. Now the question is: Can it hold the breakout tomorrow and Friday or will it simply fall back down under $90? IF it can hold, it will set up an early 2013 test of the $95 level and IF it gets above there, a return trip to $100 awaits. Two things:

  1. $100 crude would definitely be supportive of higher metals prices.
  2. The situation in the MENA has been "hot" for some time now with various headlines going and coming. However, crude has remained below $90. Suddenly, today, it's $91. Hmmmm....

Finally, if you're like me you're probably looking for something to do, so, below is a YouTube link to a documentary. This show was mentioned in a ZH thread last week and I took the time to watch it. It's a fascinating story about the "Flash Crash" of May 2010. It's relevant here simply because the focus is High Frequency Trading and, as you know, those damn WOPRs have been wreaking havoc in the metals pits for some time now. Here are some background links to pique your interest:

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-03/doug-kass-kill-quants-their-technology-they-kill-us

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/joe-saluzzi-hft-parasites-are-killing-market-host

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-11/guest-post-five-minute-example-hft-shenanigans

And here's the show:

Flash Crash 2010 - VPRO documentary - 2011

That's all for now. Hang in there and keep the faith.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  180 Comments

Number 47 ¤
Dec 26, 2012 - 10:45pm

I'm long USD/JPY

No doubt it will turn for some shitty reason never to be explained.

Timber Tim
Dec 26, 2012 - 10:46pm

@number47

I thought they where held with the UN.Don't you feel safer now. Even in a joking way.Talking about nukes in such a light hearted way is slightly uncomfortable . It was Bollocks that lead me astray. How will I find my way back

philipat
Dec 26, 2012 - 10:46pm

@Timber Tim

It just proves how provocative Iran is being by placing itself so close to all those US bases!!!


Dec 26, 2012 - 10:49pm

Thanks for the comments all

Had to step away for a while.

Thank you for all the thoughts and arguments.

The building in question is a duplex. We would live in one side and rent the other. But that means if we get one bad renter we are in trouble. Real estate in this western town is still high--too high. But the price is holding steady for now. I am also cautious of another real estate dip. We don't mind being landlords--been doing it for about 6 years now. But the lender is requiring 20% down on a 220K property. That's a lot of gold I could stack. Rents in the area are high and I am taking a pay cut. Both kids are in college currently. The move is hard on them, leaving their friends and all. So we want them to enjoy the new place we move into.

kingboo
Dec 26, 2012 - 10:56pm

The PTB have one huge problem.....

One problem that they cannot manage, nor manipulate......the one thing they have been bred to clamor for has become their greatest curse......Gold. It is the psychology of gold that they cannot "manage"........

These Elites don't know how to head fake Gold's true value. Oh sure, they "act" like they don't desire gold......they pretend it has little use or value.......they claim it's useless, has no yield, blah blah blah.... but they're unconvincing, at best....

And the reason the Elites are so transparent when it comes to Gold is simple; for hundreds of years these "Aires to the Thrones" have been taught, since they were very young.....that nothing matters BUT GOLD....and that is reinforced in every moment from childhood on up..... Oh sure, they'll send the little Prince to Ivy schools.....get them the finest classical education, modern finance..see the world....you know, "all that bullshit".....but at the end of the day they make damn sure they teach the little Prince not to "earn wealth" but to steal it...then preserve it in gold, (and property) because therein lies the power! So Gold it is.....but shhhhh! Keep it quiet my little elite prince.....

With enough Gold you will always be able to pull the levers of high finance.......so don't ever lose sight of the ball!

I am absolutely convinced that the conversations run loosely around this plot.....no one will ever convince me otherwise...especially now.

The problem they have is there are plenty of Prince's......and they don't trust each other......and the distrust is beginning to show....and this goes for sovereign nations as well.....their horrible acting job is wearing thin....

My biggest question is this; when will they show their true colors? How long can they sit there acting as if gold is a useless barbaric relic before their inbred need to clamor for it comes out?............

They know time is running short...............it's gotta kill them to watch it flowing at these prices.

Bollocks
Dec 26, 2012 - 10:57pm

@Number 47

Thanks. Yes, the link works.

Very interesting, I found the bit about gold that you mentioned in the last third or so.

These reports, coming as they are on BBC News, are new to me. I've not seen this sort of reporting in such a concentrated way before - and I keep a sharp eye on what BBC news report.

The queen checking out the gold held in the vault under the Bank of England when the UK is in a very obvious fiscal crisis?

Come on, what is all that about? What is the message? Very, very strange.

Sheetrocker
Dec 26, 2012 - 11:10pm

For those who have a little

For those who have a little free time over the holidays, I think this video is worth watching. I believe it explains part of the reason we in the U.S. are where we are today, with a socialist/marxist/communist type near dictatorship.

In it, Yuri Bezmenov, a soviet official who defected in 1970, details how the soviets infiltrated and compromised media, education, and politicians world-wide, in a process he calls 'demoralization'.

Since this interview was recorded in 1984, of course the U.S.S.R. has collapsed, but Russia is still not to be taken lightly, IMO. Also he talks not just of the U.S.S.R., but of the world-wide communist conspiracy. When he talks about how western bankers and businessmen, in their greed for profit no matter where it comes from, actually helped prop up the U.S.S.R., it makes me think of our relations with China today.

From the granting of 'most favored nation' trading status under Clinton, to the off-shoring of so much of our industry, giving away our technology, allowing China to accumulate a large portion of our debt and now drain the west of it's gold, most seem to forget that China is a communist dictatorship. How has any of this been good for the U.S.? Also, remember that western bankers helped finance the Bolshevik revolution, just as they helped finance Hitler.

If nothing else, at least watch the last part, from about 1:07:00 on.

Yuri Bezmenov: Deception Was My Job (Complete)

The U.S. has lasted longer than he predicted, but look at how far we have fallen since this was recorded in 1984, and how the speed of our descent has dramatically increased since 9/11/2001.

Timber Tim
Dec 26, 2012 - 11:15pm

@philipat

Your completely right.Provocative indeed.

Green Lantern
Dec 26, 2012 - 11:19pm

@Bollocks

did u read 5 or 6 posts prior about the tungsten, Germany's audit of Duestchebank and how it might be connected to the Queen and her visit to the gold vaults ? I think he laid out a very sound scenario of what's going on

Rui
Dec 26, 2012 - 11:22pm
¤
Dec 26, 2012 - 11:39pm

Welcome To The Fold

Filter - Welcome To The Fold (Official Video) HD

Welcomed a newcomer into my fold today...

Mariposa de Oro
Dec 27, 2012 - 12:20am

Bollocks

I think it's just to keep the scam going a little longer. So I'm leaning toward just waiting to see what happens. I've sold my house (sniff ) and am now debt free . I know what I want to do, it's now just a matter of when do I do it. Now, or later? I'm really on the fence. Will there be another smash down or will there be a run up? If there's a run up and then a smash down, will apmex or gainesville, etc. have a 'problem' with their websites, or something? We've seen this before. If I wait it could cost me money but if I do it now, just how much lower will the price drop? I'm not looking to buy THAT much. Twenty bucks lower won't make that much of a difference in the amount I purchase. I guess you understand where I'm coming from. BTW, what part of the UK are you in? I used to live in Berkshire, at RAF Welford. Nice area. Don't miss those winters, tho!

Silverman
Dec 27, 2012 - 12:23am

(No subject)

New Saying
Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 12:40am

My take on all the press about gold.

To all of the above posters who are wondering about the obvious set up pertaining to all the mainstream press coverage of gold, and its value,

it is simply an attempt to steer people into gold, and away from silver. I think it's a last ditch effort.

This accomplishes a couple of goals. We have no reason to believe that Queen Elizabeth was not looking at a whole bunch of borrowed, loaned out, or gold plated tungsten bars. Either way, they may be able to keep this scam going a little bit longer if they could sell a little bit more gold, and a little less silver. The 50 to one ratio can't possibly last, and I am under the assumption that there is no silver for delivery, so that people need to be steered away from it.

Many of the “silver bulls” think that the world's supply of silver is gone, but that there is still plenty of Gold.

I will be buying a couple of tubes of silver tomorrow, just to rub their noses in it.

I have been attempting to maintain a 50/50 split, between gold and silver,

but right now, the fundamentals in silver look superior to those of gold.

I have not heard this particular theory floated, but it is my theory, therefore, I like it.

Keep buying silver, until you can't anymore,

and that is coming very very soon.

SaratogaPrepper
Dec 27, 2012 - 12:44am

Provident

Just in from an evening shift, even survived the snowy ride thru mega-super-duper-winter-storm euclid (when did we start naming a little snow storm?), to find a card hand addressed to me in the mailbox. It is a Christmas card from Provident Metals. Inside is 2 - 1/4 oz Incused Indian rounds in airtites! Just another reason why I have placed 27 orders with them this year. Customer appreciation like that is why they will keep getting my business. It's not like I'm some big spender. All those orders were just 5 oz here, 10 oz there, maybe a fractional gold piece if I had a lot of overtime that week, but every order was perfect and very timely in shipping. I am in no way connected to Provident, just felt that this little act should be mentioned to those who would understand.

Mariposa de Oro
Dec 27, 2012 - 12:48am

@Mr Fix

So what would you do in my shoes? I can't really do silver. If you want to know why PM me. How much further will au fall? Will it drop below 1600?

maravich44 SaratogaPrepper
Dec 27, 2012 - 1:23am

toga...

Provident Metals. I like them also. Joni might be an acquired voice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9j_j-cUwKc

Mr. Fix
Dec 27, 2012 - 1:26am

@ Mariposa de Oro

Unfortunately, my magic eight ball sprung a leak,

and my ability to foresee the future accurately has been somewhat impaired.

However, as I have stated multiple times on previous threads, I have no confidence in the “paper price” to go up before there is a systemic collapse. After that, there will have to be another pricing mechanism. as a matter of fact, I see no reason why the “paper price” shouldn't completely collapse, as confidence in the COMEX evaporates.

For a while, you may have to sit on your investment, until it all shakes out, but when it is finally repriced, it should look pretty good.

As far as your inability to invest in silver is concerned, I am curious, PM me.

Edit:

I just found your post a little further up the page, to answer your question “when should I buy?”

I would not wait much longer, I firmly believe that even if the price continues to drop, the availability of the metals will vanish. Already, it has been stated by many that the metals cannot be purchased in quantity at their current prices.

As you said yourself, $20 is not a matter much either way, if what we have been anticipating finally comes to pass.

And congratulations on selling your house, there are many in my own neighborhood who have been trying to do that for several years now.

Some houses have been foreclosed on, some are just abandoned, and almost all of the rest are upside down on their mortgages.

If somebody bought my house today, I would put it all into precious metals tomorrow.

I however have made a decision to stay put, and to ride out what ever shit storm should come to pass.

I made that decision a little over four years ago, and I am somewhat locked into it now,

as selling the house that I own in the current market is not a viable option in my own particular situation.

In other words, that ship has sailed.

Now comes the scary part.

stealthbear
Dec 27, 2012 - 1:27am

@Saratoga

I think the folks at Provident must really like you.....I have placed several orders from them this year including 3 monster boxes, and didn't get so much as a card from them at Christmas .

ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 1:56am

GSR yesterday was a bit down

GSR yesterday was a bit down but the market due to holidays has been so extended in time that these changes does not have any meaning. Silver has been so flat these days compared to earlier period that its clear something is brewing waiting for todays Senate action/inaction on fiscal cliff, moving closer to debt ceiling (official date of hitting it before accounting adjustment extension Dec 31st) and various dates related to silver futures expiry and first/last notice dates (27, 28, 31 Dec 2012).

Silver is still in a downtrend, only some resolution of fiscal cliff would be able to move it up strongly, which is unlikely, in my opinion. But there could be some volatility as rumors and statements appear.

Oil has crossed Turd's 90 USD " be aware" mark but probably before something starts to happen it will be at least over 100 ( and probably Brent is better indicator than USA oil-and Brent has been flat since end of October- but it has moved up sharply today, 3USD ).

Hagarth
Dec 27, 2012 - 2:08am

New reason to call it Boxing Day

The only shopping that I did was to go to the local Chapters Indigo to look for a book that might teach me a new skill or to add to the library of useful knowledge to have on hand in the event I may need to darn a sock or fall a tree safely.

What I noticed in the general meme was a lot of books with nothing but opinions on pretty irrelevant things, oh and picture books...I am not 3 anymore. Talk about dumbing down the population.

Another disturbing thing was how many books having being penned that separate people from one another by molding opinions and a surprising amount of books with Revolution either in the name or in the description of the text, most of all in the financial and Banking world. Being a skeptic (of things even I believe to be true) this did not sit well with me, there is a reason that someone (persons unknown to me) want all these books on the shelve. Generally peoples minds are more malleable when they are looking for answers and have a tendency to latch onto the 1st plausible answer that fits with their emotions. This is not a good thing especially when we are talking about managed economies and books declaring that banks are morally bankrupt and have no Ethics. These scary institutions of thought require deep thought without bias of emotion, the past has taught us that jumping on any bandwagon during an emotional time is not wise, check every US entry into every war and how they were formulated to use outrage of the population as a political tool.

In the economics section there were a few books that may have been worth a read but nothing compares to this site for people posting relevant information ala REAL TIME. As such the books are still at the store.

In support of this community may you all find the strength to be calm in the face of outrage, be thoughtful at the times when panic should prevail, be malleable to changing dynamics good or bad. Be bold with the truth, strength of character is a gift to be shared.

Mr. Ferguson has been sharing these qualities while maintaining a measure of humility that many would shed under these circumstances. He has showed tremendous strength of character under adverse conditions, while many of us have looked on for guidance and opinion. I would personally like to honor the host of this site with my best wishes to him and his family, may you have all the laughter and joy that your smiling faces can endure.

ivars
Dec 27, 2012 - 2:27am

From ZH- exactly what I was

From ZH- exactly what I was talking about- if the USA falls over fiscal cliff, the debt will grow slower and political posturing about the same fiscal cliff, debt ceiling etc. may last longer- hence i thought it can take up to June-August when some clarity finally appears- but in 2013. They can even start to shut down the government-by no paying to certain jobs/contracts- giving leaves without salary etc.)- that has happened in the recent USA history-which will slow down debt creation further- until debt ceiling is hiked. Fiscal cliff in combination with debt ceiling talks has a potential to disrupt economy short term quite strongly.

Quote:
When Tim Geithner announced an hour ago that the US debt ceiling will officially be "risen above" on December 31, he stated that there are approximately two months in which the Treasury can take emergency measures to delay the actual debt ceiling breach, a moment in time which we believe will take place some time in March. Upon further reflection, with the automatic spending cuts and tax hikes that will take place on January 1, the irony is that the debt ceiling extension may last materially longer due to a substantial reduction in the US budget deficit, potentially pushing the final threshold to as late April or even May which means the political theater is going to last for even longer than we expected - something which both parties now appear set to capitalize on as much as possible.
Karankawa
Dec 27, 2012 - 2:48am

Mariposa de Oro

Just hold the cash. That's what your house was valued at and what you believe in.

Take your time, you will know in your heart when you would rather have something real.

Nobody can make that decision for you.

Karankawa
Dec 27, 2012 - 2:53am

Provideht metals

I've sold to them a bit here and there and their check is allways on time. I hate selling anything ;)

Mariposa de Oro
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:22am

Thanks Karankawa

I might do half/half. I'm a gov contractor. If this fiscal cliff nonsense gets out of hand I might not have an income for a while. So some savings will definitely come in handy. If they managed to kick the can some more, which I expect they will, the metal will get hammered down, and I can buy some more if I feel like it. I've got an idea this slow grind down will last a little longer yet.

Karankawa
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:46am

Mariposa de Oro

Holy Moly!

If you don't already have garden and aren't working on one. Precious metals are your least worry right now...

Espcially if you are a government dependent.

Mariposa de Oro
Dec 27, 2012 - 3:50am

Karankawa

I've got the best garden on the island. The other day I was able to trade some baby eggplant and red noodle beans for some fresh fish (Ono). My coconut scraper arrived in today's mail. My solar oven can cook cut up chicken, fish, and veggies. I've even got a water supply though I use it to water my banana trees. I wouldn't want to drink that water but could if I had to. I've got plenty of sewing supplies too. I'm further along than you think. :o)

Karankawa
Dec 27, 2012 - 4:02am

Mariposa de Oro

The other day I was able to trade some baby eggplant and red noodle beans for some fresh fish (Ono). My coconut scraper arrived in today's mail. My solar oven can cook cut up chicken, fish, and veggies. I've even got a water supply though I use it to water my banana trees. I wouldn't want to drink that water but could if I had to. I've got plenty of sewing supplies too. I'm further along than you think. :o)"

All done as a Contratecter, paid by the Fed. While America has 47mil on food stamps?

And you are on a PM board in a foreign country sustained by tax dollars? Double duty?

Give me a break. You have been assigned a mission.

ClinkinKY
Dec 27, 2012 - 5:32am

@ Bollocks

In appreciation for your participation here, I'm going to be sending you a belated Christmas present. It will be in a rather large, heavy box and since it has to go through customs I will have to declare on the label what is inside the box. To keep you in suspense until you open it, I will simply label it PM.

Gold, silver, platinum...or perhaps something even more precious?

ps--pay no attention to the air holes in the box, or the noises coming from within. No need to thank me

Ircsum
Dec 27, 2012 - 5:43am

Ermmmm.....Clinkin?

I hear Bollocks has moved to Iran, so please redirect the package there. I trust you did forget to put any food or water inside. Also, surface mail is far cheaper than air freight - may take a tad longer but who the hell cares?

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