Odds & Ends

180
Wed, Dec 26, 2012 - 6:05pm

Not much happening on this day after Christmas but I found a few things for you to consider.

It has been a very quiet, rangebound trade since the conclusion of the last raid back on Thursday. The HFTs are in charge and they are alternately jamming price slightly higher and lower as they attempt to fatten some profits before year-end. The result is 3 days of market boredom with silver in a 50¢ range and seemingly going nowhere. Gold is stuck, too, but at least shows some signs of life. It double-bottomed near $1640 late last week and has since recovered quite nicely. IF it can get some traction here and move UP through $1680 and then $1690, it will actually enter 2013 with a positive-looking chart. Let's just see what the rest of this week holds.

The only market that held any excitement today was crude. Recall that we've been watching crude in a range from $85-90 since mid-October. Today, it finally broke higher and through $90, with the Feb13 closing at $91.17. Now the question is: Can it hold the breakout tomorrow and Friday or will it simply fall back down under $90? IF it can hold, it will set up an early 2013 test of the $95 level and IF it gets above there, a return trip to $100 awaits. Two things:

  1. $100 crude would definitely be supportive of higher metals prices.
  2. The situation in the MENA has been "hot" for some time now with various headlines going and coming. However, crude has remained below $90. Suddenly, today, it's $91. Hmmmm....

Finally, if you're like me you're probably looking for something to do, so, below is a YouTube link to a documentary. This show was mentioned in a ZH thread last week and I took the time to watch it. It's a fascinating story about the "Flash Crash" of May 2010. It's relevant here simply because the focus is High Frequency Trading and, as you know, those damn WOPRs have been wreaking havoc in the metals pits for some time now. Here are some background links to pique your interest:

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-03/doug-kass-kill-quants-their-technology-they-kill-us

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/joe-saluzzi-hft-parasites-are-killing-market-host

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-11/guest-post-five-minute-example-hft-shenanigans

And here's the show:

Flash Crash 2010 - VPRO documentary - 2011

That's all for now. Hang in there and keep the faith.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  180 Comments

Bollocks
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:31pm

Sure Mr Fix...

But questions by the Dr. about his children and where they would be happiest staying.

I'm confused.

I'm probably not drinking enough. lol.

Mr. Fix
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:36pm

Dr. Jerome?

It sounds to me like a little bit of clarification would go a long way.

Some relevant questions have been raised, what say you?

¤
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:38pm

The Moody Blues - Nights in White Satin

The Moody Blues - Nights in White Satin

Title: The celebration of the peace of Münster, 18 June 1648, in the headquarters of the crossbowmen's civic guard (St George guard), Amsterdam.

Artist: Bartholomeus van der Helst - 1648

Summary: Celebration of the peace of Münster, 18 June 1648, in the headquarters of the crossbowmen's civic guard (St George guard), Amsterdam. The people portrayed are: (right, with silver horn) captain Cornelis Jansz. Witsen, (shakes hand of previous) lieutenant Johan Oetgens van Waveren, (seated behind the drum, with flag) reserve officer candidate Jacob Banning, sergeants Dirck Claesz. Thoveling and Thomas Hartog. Additionally: Pieter van Hoorn, Willem Pietersz. van der Voort, Adriaen Dirck Sparwer, Hendrick Calaber, Govert van der Mij, Johannes Calaber, Benedictus Schaesk, Jam Maes, Jacob van Diemen, Jan van Ommeren, Isaac Ooyens, Gerrit Pietersz. van Anstenraadt, Herman Teunisz. de Kluyter, Andries van ANstenraadt, Christoffel Poock, Hendrick Dommer Wz., Paulus Hennekijn, Lambregt van den Bos and Willem the drummer

Ferd Torgerson
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:43pm

Dr. Jerome

Depends on how much time you have to do bookkeeping, tax returns, etc. Remember that there will be extra work involved in keeping records, responding to broken water pipes, etc. Not to mention the sob stories you'll hear about why this month's rent is late.

I asked an old boss of mine once how he felt about my buying a rental property. He responded that he once owned two rental properties but sold them. He added that he still woke up occasionally in the early hours of the morning from nightmares that he STILL owned them.

I'd opt for the home in the country.

Ferd (no charge for my advice but you get what you pay for.)

kingboo
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:45pm

Landlord..........

not only do the rent checks stop coming in hard times.......but you can't legally get em out! (you can, but it's hard as hell)........ and not only that........when you buy rental property.......you're deploying your capital "above board".....you will have to declare all the income.........and once you add up the mortgage, prop taxes, emergency repairs, appliance upgrades from time to time, paint, landscaping.......you get the drift... Now for fun, lets assume you earn 10k profit for the year......at 30% tax rate..... you end up with 7k. Big f--king deal.

So now lets look at how much exposure you created for yourself in order to earn a measly 7k.......

you are subject to housing market losses, you are subject to local tax changes, local regulatory changes, tenants walking out on you, extended vacancies, unforeseen expenses, potential rising insurance costs......etc, etc........

and ultimately, you are exposing yourself to losing the total investment to foreclosure......

now, i understand this is a worst case scenario.........but isn't that exactly what you want to consider when you enter an investment? I wouldn't touch real estate with a 10 ft pole right now.....the market is still WAY too obscured to attain even a close guesstimate as to true values............and at the end of the day.......real estate is not "light on it's feet".....meaning if the economy changes for the worse quickly......you will have no maneuverability......

you will be stuck with a boat anchor........ I know it's tempting......but don't do it.

Bollocks
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:51pm

I agree with Timber Tim...

The suicide rate in the UK has dropped to zero.

Burglaries have turned into deposits. Burglars are breaking into homes and leaving gifts.

Crime is non-existent. The police have been made redundant.

The MSM are reporting on cute fluffy bunnies, and the like, all day long. NO nasty shit.

And all since Piers Morgan FUCKING left.

So, NO, we 'aint having him back.






kingboo
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:53pm

@Bollocks........

We aren't "asking" if you will have Piers Morgan back!..........We are just forewarning you.......

opticsguy
Dec 26, 2012 - 8:03pm

Rental property

I learned 20 years ago that in most parts of the country (S. CA and the Bay area excepted) houses are affordable purchases for anyone having a job and decent credit. For those with neither, renting is the only option. I knew of families that would pay a deposit, move in, never pay rent again, and after 6 months have enough to make the deposit at another place, and they move before being evicted.

With 47 million on SNAP, how long before 40 million are on Section 8? We individuals won't be able to lease out Section 8 properties by then, they will all be owned by GE, the big banks, and Warren Buffett. More corporate welfare.

57Goldtop
Dec 26, 2012 - 8:04pm

I strongly disagree with Timber Tim

Canada doesn't want him. It's bad enough when we accidentally look at the front side of the currency...

zman
Dec 26, 2012 - 8:06pm

College is the biggest bubble

College is the biggest bubble of all, what is going to happen when kids start to realize the debt is not worth the education, or when they can't get massive loans to pay the college. Who are you going to rent to when enrollment drops -40%?

Part-time landlords have the worst times, stay away.

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