Odds & Ends

180
Wed, Dec 26, 2012 - 6:05pm

Not much happening on this day after Christmas but I found a few things for you to consider.

It has been a very quiet, rangebound trade since the conclusion of the last raid back on Thursday. The HFTs are in charge and they are alternately jamming price slightly higher and lower as they attempt to fatten some profits before year-end. The result is 3 days of market boredom with silver in a 50¢ range and seemingly going nowhere. Gold is stuck, too, but at least shows some signs of life. It double-bottomed near $1640 late last week and has since recovered quite nicely. IF it can get some traction here and move UP through $1680 and then $1690, it will actually enter 2013 with a positive-looking chart. Let's just see what the rest of this week holds.

The only market that held any excitement today was crude. Recall that we've been watching crude in a range from $85-90 since mid-October. Today, it finally broke higher and through $90, with the Feb13 closing at $91.17. Now the question is: Can it hold the breakout tomorrow and Friday or will it simply fall back down under $90? IF it can hold, it will set up an early 2013 test of the $95 level and IF it gets above there, a return trip to $100 awaits. Two things:

  1. $100 crude would definitely be supportive of higher metals prices.
  2. The situation in the MENA has been "hot" for some time now with various headlines going and coming. However, crude has remained below $90. Suddenly, today, it's $91. Hmmmm....

Finally, if you're like me you're probably looking for something to do, so, below is a YouTube link to a documentary. This show was mentioned in a ZH thread last week and I took the time to watch it. It's a fascinating story about the "Flash Crash" of May 2010. It's relevant here simply because the focus is High Frequency Trading and, as you know, those damn WOPRs have been wreaking havoc in the metals pits for some time now. Here are some background links to pique your interest:

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-03/doug-kass-kill-quants-their-technology-they-kill-us

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/joe-saluzzi-hft-parasites-are-killing-market-host

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-11/guest-post-five-minute-example-hft-shenanigans

And here's the show:

Flash Crash 2010 - VPRO documentary - 2011

That's all for now. Hang in there and keep the faith.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  180 Comments

Bollocks
Dec 26, 2012 - 6:56pm
Bongo Jim
Dec 26, 2012 - 6:58pm

@Doc

If the insider info in the previous linked posts is getting as near as they say, get outta Dodge & teach those bored kids how to grow food. Maybe they'll invent a better way to kill gophers.

Mr. Fix
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:00pm

@ tobydaniel

I read your blog post,

as someone who went through 12 years of Catholic school, and found epic corruption everywhere I looked, right down to my religion teacher ( A Priest) who was screwing one of my classmates, I fully endorse your post.

As for the pope thinking that he is God, that might be true, but wouldn't that put him in direct competition with Obama? Do you envision a power struggle on the horizon?

Or, are they going to arrange some kind of shared power, kind of like a dynamic duo replacing the holy Trinity?

Keep up the good work, I wish more people would wake up and see what a farce that church really is.

tpbeta
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:05pm

@DrkPurpleHaze

Great post. Highlights the fiscal cliff problem. No-one actually knows if going off the cliff or not going off the cliff is bullish or bearish for metals becasue no-one knows what the follow-up will be. Into that vacuum at the appropriate moment will step the monkeys posing as the market, to lead opinion by the short and curlies. A potential 'heads I win tails you lose' scenario for Gold Bugs.

vonburpenstein Doctor J
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:06pm

Dr. Jerome, Re: Buying...

...Why not both? Seems they are both potentially good ideas in their own way...Would YOU live in the apartments also?...

Mr. Fix
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:13pm

RE, Dr Jerome

as tempting as a rental income sounds, it is my opinion that in a SHTF scenario which I have come to believe is not only unavoidable, but imminent, that rent check would probably stop coming in a heartbeat, and those kids would still be hungry.

Therefore, it is my judgment that the house farther away from town, with enough land to grow something to eat is an infinitely wiser choice.

You can't eat a rent check that doesn't come,

you and your kids won't benefit from it either.

Even if everything turns out okay, it would still be worthwhile owning some land, and learning how to farm it. The lessons learned will be valuable for the rest of all of your lives,

and as an added extra bonus, you may even get to eat the fruits of your labor.

Besides, it sounds like you're going to have a built in labor force for a while.

It's a no-brainer, get the house!

Bollocks
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:13pm

@Mr Fix

Dr Jerome wasn't asking about making an income from renting.

Rather where to live.

edit: or have I misunderstood his post? dunno.

Zoltan
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:20pm

Doc J

I'd vote for the house as well. TFB for the "adult kids". Maybe they will GTFO and start their own lives. Being a landlord isn't a great thing in tough times. Also you could put yourself in a conflict of interest situation if you have trouble from tenants who are also your students.

Z

Mr. Fix
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:22pm

@ Bollocks:

I found this in there:

" apartment building that will provide some income"

Edit:

I believe that the very definition of self-reliance is a about to change forever.

Being “set up” with a steady rental income, may not be worth what it used to be.

Learning the life skills required to be truly self-reliant is priceless.

Long-term, the children will be much happier as a result of it.

Short-term, they're going to think that working for their food sucks.

It won't be until their friends starve to death that they will see the wisdom in your choice.

Isn't parenthood wonderful?

Timber Tim
Dec 26, 2012 - 7:29pm

I am serious now.Piers Morgan

I am serious now.Piers Morgan stays in America.We don't want him back.You let him in,you can keep him.Britain is much happier mentally and physically since he left.We could go into remission if he arrived on these shores again.Send him to Canada or Alaska.There's loads of open space up there.

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