Very Early Monday

Mon, Dec 24, 2012 - 1:24am

It's going to be a while before I can write up a full new post so, with the current post pushing 40,000 views, I thought I'd better give you a new thread to chew on overnight.

I hope that Uncle Ted doesn't mind. He's the patriarch of our movement and, as you know, I hold him in very high regard. I would strongly encourage you to consider subscribing to his site, especially at this critical moment in our history.

Following along with the previous post here at TFMR, Uncle Ted crafted these two paragraphs in his "Weekly Review" back on Saturday. Concise but with an added level of detail I failed to provide, these two paragraphs provide an essential background to the entire silver manipulation story.

"The danger of a further sharp silver sell-off still exists because JPMorgan’s concentrated short position still exists. Based upon physical market considerations, there is also a danger that JPMorgan could lose control and silver could explode. That’s what’s wrong with a concentrated position and manipulated market in the first place. Through the cut-off date, JPMorgan was still short 34,000 contracts, down 1500 for the reporting week. Remarkably, this is still a third of the entire net short side of COMEX silver (minus spreads) and represents more than 22% of annual world mine production. Here’s another tidbit – the 170 million oz of equivalent silver that JPMorgan is short on the COMEX is more than 20% of the all the visible silver bullion in the world (817 million oz – source

To give you a sense of the dimensions of holding a paper short position of this magnitude in gold, silver’s precious metal sister, please consider that if one entity held 20% of the two billion oz (minimum) of all visible gold bullion in the world short on the COMEX, it would require a short position of 4 million COMEX contracts, nearly ten times the current total open interest. (2 billion oz gold oz X 20% and then converted into 100 oz COMEX contracts). My point here is that the more you compare JPMorgan’s concentrated silver short position to other markets, the more you are amazed at the audacity of their silver manipulation."

I'll have a full, updated post in 12 hours or so. Until then, good luck and btfd.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 185


wildstylechef · Dec 24, 2012 - 1:31am



wildstylechef · Dec 24, 2012 - 1:33am



A merry Christmas Turd and all!

may the dollar drop and gold and silver rocket!

Mr. Fix · Dec 24, 2012 - 1:40am


It's 1:30 AM, time for new thread? Really?!!

Now I have to go back and read it,

it must be very important!

Thanks Turd.

And in case I don't get a chance, a sincere Merry Christmas to all, and best wishes in the new year.

 And now for something that I never do after announcing second in a thread, I am going to sleep now.

 Good night, sweet dreams.

philly · Dec 24, 2012 - 1:42am

Top Five...

Thought I'd have Thurd, but that outcome was 'Fix'ed and the best I could do was Fourth!! I've been adding to my stack this week and doing so via Provident.

Turd, do you make any money on those Provident purchases of mine? I'm hoping so!

THANK YOU and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all you Turds and Turdlings. I am glad to be a part of this community and (though I rarely...if ever...have anything to contribute) have the highest respect for all of you who try your best to educate us all on the ins and outs of the metals market!

Keep the faith Turd. There'll always be assholes who think it makes them look better when they try to make someone else look bad. Folks with integrity see right through AND past those kind of folks.


silveraspenleaf · Dec 24, 2012 - 2:10am

well heck,

I'll take being in the top ten anytime......for being up so late, I guess!?

The Toronto Minnow · Dec 24, 2012 - 2:15am

Minnow time

Top ten first post! It's Minnow time (2:14am here in Toronto)! 

Enjoy the site, enjoy stacking what I can when I can.

(Every little bit helps... I think of it as confiscating the base material from the manipulators.)

Mudsharkbytes · Dec 24, 2012 - 2:18am

Five for me

Well, technically, four since the first was a double. 

I could use a double for that matter. 

A video I doubt any of you have seen. Red McKenzie is playing comb and paper & his buddy, Josh Billings is playing suitcase percussion using two whisk brooms. 

Mound City Blue Blowers "St. Louis Blues" 1929
Himalaya · Dec 24, 2012 - 2:31am

Merry Christmas!!!

Merry Christmas to all turdies!!!! 

wonderer · Dec 24, 2012 - 2:40am

seldom comment, because I am here to learn

but, I want to thank everyone here for helping me understand the difference between paper fiat and real money without counterparty risk, for helping me stay the course, and for teaching this little old arthritic granny to be a very small (but very strong) hand.

I have learned so much, have discovered Austrian Economics, figured out who to listen to, and who to ignore.

Now, if I could only convince my grown adult children... (and, yes, one managed to go to Harvard Business School, unfortunately.)

Asked him today if HBS had taught him anything but Keynsian Economics - if they had ever mentioned Austrian. No, he had never heard of it.

I keep sending him links, but he has a truckload of excuses as to why he doesn't have time to study up. 

Why? What more can I do to smack some sense into that 45 year old graying head of his, for my grandchildren's sake. Can't even get him to understand the importance of having some dehydrated food in the event of an emergency. 

Harvard Business School isn't worth Harry Truman's bucket of warm spit, if you ask me. I would love to say something stronger, but it did get him a very good job in a relatively safe sector of the economy, so I shouldn't whine too much.

I hope the new year brings us all good news, and that we manage to locate all the "pretties" we lost at the bottom of various lakes and rivers (or sewer grates in my case).

I also pray that we can manage to hang on to some semblance of civilization if the worst happens.

Merry Christmas to all of you, and a Happy New Year.

from a tired old granny, who has a hard time watching what is happening to the country of her youth.

El Gordo · Dec 24, 2012 - 2:48am

Top ten I think

El Gordo says Merry Christmas to all, and if you are offended by that, good.

philipat · Dec 24, 2012 - 2:55am


EITHER The Fed has them covered and they don't give a shit about losses or prosecution (They have no reputation to worry about already)

OR they have a major problem of London Whale proportions.

It would be a wonderful Christmas present if it were the latter so we could all wave goodbye to Blythe?

Silver Alert · Dec 24, 2012 - 3:05am

On the

8th day day of Christmas... Hey, I won 8 milk maids:

thurd aye · Dec 24, 2012 - 3:10am

Well,I had a nice

Well,I had a nice morning.Woke to all the tire/tyre valves cut off my car,and one off my pick-up.So I am now stranded 'til the cavalry arrives.I know who it was.Another story.Remember the 2 guys I gave work to, on a 50/50 deal.I ended up paying all expenses and they stole the crop.What a world !RSA bye bye!(Thank God it sold when it did.)

thurd aye · Dec 24, 2012 - 4:21am

edit add: all four valves on

edit add: all four valves on the pick-up were slashed,only two went down.I have to travel 1000 meters downhill through a pass.These buggers could have killed me.Police are so slow,couldn't care less,like a lot of people these days,it's FUBAR, this world.

achmachat · Dec 24, 2012 - 4:26am

good times

I'm going to be frank here: There's no way I could have ordered 200 silver maples yesterday if we hadn't had an entire week of smack-downs! One day we are sure going to look back to these days and laugh like Dr. Evil!

Excalibur · Dec 24, 2012 - 4:31am

@thurd aye

Some nice farewell present you got there! Will we be seeing you in the UK?

Happy Christmas to all here. May you get many kisses under the mistletoe.

What I gleaned from Turd's latest is that silver may go up or it may go down. Now I can have a relaxed holiday knowing that. wink

Thanks to Turd and for all his energy and I hope the family Ferguson have a great time together.

ratioarbitrage · Dec 24, 2012 - 4:34am

Silver moving at mach 0.8.

Air freight from the UK to China is under $10 per kilo or about 1% of the price of silver. Consequently any sustained arbitrage opportunity between deliverable metal on the LBMA or US markets and Shanghai physical silver (like the ridiculous 10% price arb reported by Andrew Maguire this weekend) can be reliably expected to result in physical silver literally flying across the world at approximately mach 0.8 as resourceful traders profit from the arbitrage. There is no shortage of freight capacity. In the lower priced regions, the same may soon no longer be true of physical silver.

Number 47 · Dec 24, 2012 - 4:38am

Good times x 2

Thought 30 would be a bottom, got fed up waiting for price to drop under 30 in Asian trading, bought in at 30.112 for a bit of a forex giggle, currently up over 40% (200x leverage) and now have a trailing stop working for me. smiley Got a guaranteed 30% return on the night and potential for a bit more. Happy days! And it's christmas to boot.

Merry christmas all!

ltcolkilgore · Dec 24, 2012 - 4:57am

Merry Christmas!!!

A Merry Christmas to everyone here and especially TF for providing this great forum for all of us... I hope Santa is very good to you and yours!! Enjoy the blessings of family and friends...

Hardrock, Coco and Joe: The Three Little Dwarfs
thurd aye · Dec 24, 2012 - 5:08am


More cartoons at the link,acting man,via ZH.

Bollocks · Dec 24, 2012 - 6:08am

RIP Mike Scaccia

A nice and happy monday-morning, christmassy kind-of tune.

Video unavailable
boatman · Dec 24, 2012 - 6:22am


hang in there, Granny..........its a cycle..............he said, as much to remind himself as to anyone else in particular.

my granny [she would be 122 now] bless her soul...........always said: 'the harder the times, the better the people'

in the end and like it or not, people will get the chance to get alittle better ...............before the 'hard' is all over.

at least its a chance.

and then, in his skiff w/his dog, before he slipped out of sight, ..........merry christmas to Turdville, and to all a good night.

Bollocks · Dec 24, 2012 - 6:40am

West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate


A new analysis of temperature records indicates that the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is warming nearly twice as fast as previously thought.

US researchers say they found the first evidence of warming during the southern hemisphere's summer months.

They are worried that the increased melting of ice as a result of warmer temperatures could contribute to sea-level rise.

The study has been published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The scientists compiled data from records kept at Byrd station, established by the US in the mid-1950s and located towards the centre of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS).

Previously scientists were unable to draw any conclusions from the Byrd data as the records were incomplete.

The new work used a computer model of the atmosphere and a numerical analysis method to fill in the missing observations.

The results indicate an increase of 2.4C in average annual temperature between 1958 and 2010.

"What we're seeing is one of the strongest warming signals on Earth," says Andrew Monaghan, a co-author and scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research.

"This is the first time we've been able to determine that there's warming going on during the summer season." he added.

Capt. Willard · Dec 24, 2012 - 6:41am

Merry Christmas Turdland!

You cannot start to educate the young goldbugs soon enough ;)

Have a nice holiday.

bulliondan · Dec 24, 2012 - 7:01am

Merry Xmas!

Hey Turd, just a quick note to say thanks for all of your hard work on this site throughout 2012 it has been a great help to those of us trying to make sense of the precious metals markets.

Ignore those guys who knock you for not always getting it right, for crying out loud who does!

The important thing is that you are right more often than not and even more importantly at least you are trying to do something positive in what is an ever more negative financial environment.

I for one really appreciate your efforts and want to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!!


ggnewmex · Dec 24, 2012 - 7:08am

Merry Christmas Turd

To you and all the good, known Turdites, all the best to you. May you enjoy the season with family, friends, and Christ as well.

FYI, I received a letter from a missionary in Alaska, he said this about the weather, wonder if this makes news, LOL

24 out of the 32 days since I returned from the Asia we have  not gotten above -20⁰ F. We have averaged about 25⁰ cooler  than normal for this time of year. We are used to extreme  cold but we are not used to it staying around so persistently. December 2012. Oh well, whatever, we all know the truth, why bring in the facts to confuse things,,, which is why many of us are here!! The best Turd, and all gg
ivars · Dec 24, 2012 - 7:16am

Merry Christmas everyone!

If the USA debt creation slows down after fiscal cliff like 50% and FED is buying 45 billion/month with QE of it then others have only .. almost nothing left to buy so the bidding war may begin which will send bond prices up and yields down reducing USG debt service costs and thus deficit even further . As some German and Swiss bonds and I guess USA are already negative ( 2 year) yields ,the government may in fact start to earn money by selling bonds which further reduces deficit and thus need for debt as investors pay to own government DEBT

See? All because of fiscal cliff.

Terp · Dec 24, 2012 - 7:50am

@ Capt. W

That is awesome Capt!

I loved Playmobil as a kid - ok, I still think it's awesome... and have the Playmobil nativity scene set up now =)


Merry Christmas Turd and Turdites!

vonburpenstein · Dec 24, 2012 - 7:57am

Merry Christmas....

....Capt Willard, you are correct, you can get them learning early enough. My 3 yr old loves SAEs.....especially since there is a PRINCESS on one side and an eagle on the other. Makes me smile. She's got more princess' than she knows...

Merry Christmas to Turd and all the loyal band of Turdites out there!


Byzantium · Dec 24, 2012 - 7:58am

Major Bearish indicator !!!!

OK; I have some data here, that has a scary message but has some important caveats.

On the last thread, I posted data from the UK's official bureau of statistics, the ONS (Office for National Statistics).

They have explicit data for silver, though in GBP, not ounces.

The UK has no silver mines, and the implication is that imports and exports are trading related, and are likely telling us what the LBMA activity is, regarding physical movements in and out the country.

The first graph was posted yesterday, and shows this in GBP (I am presuming that the scale is in £millions). I reproduce the graph here.

I have worked out the average cost per ounce in GBP, and this is the second graph below, now in approximate ounces. It changes the proportions a bit, but the general pattern is as before.

The caveats are whether this data is reliable in its own right (it might be doctored), and whether I am interpreting it correctly.

Here is the bearish message:

You can see that during the 2008 crisis, that a major draw (export) of physical took place, which was subsequently replenished (imports) in 2009. The problem is, following on from this interpretation (beware the caveats etc), that the 'UK' (read LBMA?) has recently been stocking up (importing), and is replete with more ammo than it has had in recent years.

If this is true, (big if), then wow, we'd better tread carefully guys......

Oh, and I don't like the message myself, so I'd be very happy for somebody to explain why this data would not be valid.


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