Some Charts

283
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:15pm

I've received several requests to "do what I do". So, here you go. (Keeping in mind that you should probably do the opposite.)

First of all, these hourly charts are astonishing. Just six, short trading days ago, The Fed confirmed QE∞ at a minimum of $85B/month, all needed to fund the ongoing U.S. federal deficit. Instead of rallying, the metals have been slaughtered. Why? Hmmm...We've seen this phenomenon in crude before (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/curious-case-post-qe-oil-hangovers) & (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/why-oils-post-qe-plunge-may-be-over) and apparently it's worked so well there that The Fed and Their Cartel have decided to give it a go in the metals, too.

And now, mainly, I'm just mad at myself because I didn't see this coming. Of course The Fed is going to instruct their minions to crush the PMs. The Fed had no choice but to initiate QE∞ and the last thing they needed was an immediate, perceived quid pro quo with rising metals prices. The metals had to be crushed. It's all a part of their ongoing strategy of MOPE and SPIN. Duh! (Jeez, the more I type the more stoo-stoo-stoopid I feel. Better stop here.)

All that said, there is no reason to think that it's over, that the 12-year PM rally is kaput. I'm sure that the metals will stop and reverse, just like last year. The only question is, where? Since nothing has changed and the fundos are, in fact, even stronger than last year at this time, why would we expect prices to break any lower than they did a year ago? (Keeping in mind that the last sentence was typed by a guy who didn't see this selloff coming.) Sometime soon, the metals will reverse with a sharp, short-covering rally. That rally will likely stall and the momo-shorts will be emboldened to take another stab at the downside. Then, after failing to take things markedly lower, a bottom will form and price will begin to recover. If compelled to trade paper in this environment, here are some charts that show a striking similarity to the action of a year ago.

Hang in there. Good luck.

TF

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  283 Comments

VAT Man is Robbing
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:03pm

Just another rigged game

Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels (1998) - End of the Card Game HD

I guess a fair few people have been forced to "show their hand" and go puke today?

Not a nice day to be long silver.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:06pm

For my second post in two years

I sat through this year-end circus in 2011 too. Some thoughts:

I am often surprised at how surprised PM buyers are at the actions of TPTB. It's almost like people forgot what they were signing up for when they bought PMs. They have such distrust in the system that they buy physical gold and pour concrete over it and then seem totally shocked to see not only manipulation in paper markets, but regulatory indifference as well.

This morning I was laughing out loud by myself imagining a 4 year CFTC investigation into these last few weeks culimating in what MSNBC reports as "The biggest fine *ever* levied for commodity price fixing" and which works out to 3% of the manipulator's profit (who admits no wrong-doing). Such an event would fit perfectly with the goldbug experience: Vindicated about virtually everything. Not any richer for it in the short term.

I hate these last few days and I hate what will almost certainly happen until the humans return to the markets in early January. But I find it helps to step back and remember that there is a war going on out there and that we are men without a country.

This leads into a question that perhaps should be another post (like I said, I only allow myself one per year and we all have to follow the rules or society will collapse):

There is this thesis that gold will go to $0 in the paper markets and "way high" in the physical markets at the same time. Is there any precedent for this in any other commodity trading markets at any time? From looking at the Nickel default a few years back and that crazy potato thing in the 70s what happens is the price goes up during a signal failure but those who were long paper contracts get hosed (that is, at the moment when "somethings gotta give", only the people who put up real money because they needed a real commodity are the ones that lose because they trusted in the integrity of the exchange).

The big difference with gold is that "its freaken money that competes with the USD" so, the argument would be that *anything goes* to keep that confidence for just one... more... day....

Anyway, I bought (phys) gold because I thought things weren't gonna be different this time, and I'd like to expand my knowledge of history if it is lacking in some crucial respect.

¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:07pm

billhilly

Besides a nasty looking avatar (compliment) that was one astute and logical banjo cord you just plucked. ;-)

old tradesman
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:10pm
Bollocks
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:11pm

@Beastly Stack

I listened to that Kyle Bass talk earlier. Very good indeed.

The lying I'm talking about is what I've seen our clients get up to. We work with the marketing departments and individuals all the way from large organisations through to small businesses. The large organisations are the worst. They think nothing of lying about their products and services to sell them. It's the way they present them that's the lie. They also lie to increase their revenue in other ways by false reporting.

As I've said, the larger the company, the more they are likely to tell lies, but the deception is subtle and well-hidden so it's not really obvious.

Over the years I've got to know quite a lot of people who have worked for our clients and they confirmed my suspicions (some of which were never suspicions, they were really obvious to me at the time).

This is my experience of working for many companies' marketing departments over the last 15 years. The system is running on a lie based on deception and this has accelerated hugely over the last few years.

It's going to collapse.

Patrancus
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:12pm

No amount of rigging

No amount of rigging is going to stop this white whale

Video unavailable
luv2stak
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:14pm

Price Drop! Super Sale! Gonna Get Some New American Silver

Eagles 2012!!

Or, NOT!

The US Mint suspended sales, when, last week? Not making or selling any more ASEs until 2013 ?!?

How did tHey know the price was gonna drop??!?

Worse than my LCS, who shuttered his store and took early vacation!

BTFD, right! Good luck with THAT!

flaunt
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:14pm

So let me get this

So let me get this straight...

I had resigned myself to the fact that there wouldn't be enough liquidity to drive prices higher going into the end of the year. It made sense, and I accepted it. But for some reason there is plenty of liquidity to drive prices lower? It would make sense to see lots of gyrations up and down as the 2 traders still at their desks have their way with each other, but this is a one way street!

The bewilderment meter is off the scale. Anyone who thinks they know what's going on is probably wrong, myself included. Except I don't think I know what's going on, I KNOW I don't know what's going on!

luv2stak
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:15pm

with collusion at these levels

it may be awhile before prices rise.

just sayin'

destroyer
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:16pm

optimism up!!

Ey k'mon!

here you have some optimism chart i've recently done:


This is my first post.

Good night from Spain!!

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