Some Charts

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:15pm

I've received several requests to "do what I do". So, here you go. (Keeping in mind that you should probably do the opposite.)

First of all, these hourly charts are astonishing. Just six, short trading days ago, The Fed confirmed QE∞ at a minimum of $85B/month, all needed to fund the ongoing U.S. federal deficit. Instead of rallying, the metals have been slaughtered. Why? Hmmm...We've seen this phenomenon in crude before ( & ( and apparently it's worked so well there that The Fed and Their Cartel have decided to give it a go in the metals, too.

And now, mainly, I'm just mad at myself because I didn't see this coming. Of course The Fed is going to instruct their minions to crush the PMs. The Fed had no choice but to initiate QE∞ and the last thing they needed was an immediate, perceived quid pro quo with rising metals prices. The metals had to be crushed. It's all a part of their ongoing strategy of MOPE and SPIN. Duh! (Jeez, the more I type the more stoo-stoo-stoopid I feel. Better stop here.)

All that said, there is no reason to think that it's over, that the 12-year PM rally is kaput. I'm sure that the metals will stop and reverse, just like last year. The only question is, where? Since nothing has changed and the fundos are, in fact, even stronger than last year at this time, why would we expect prices to break any lower than they did a year ago? (Keeping in mind that the last sentence was typed by a guy who didn't see this selloff coming.) Sometime soon, the metals will reverse with a sharp, short-covering rally. That rally will likely stall and the momo-shorts will be emboldened to take another stab at the downside. Then, after failing to take things markedly lower, a bottom will form and price will begin to recover. If compelled to trade paper in this environment, here are some charts that show a striking similarity to the action of a year ago.

Hang in there. Good luck.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 20, 2012 - 1:58pm

Max Pain Option Expiry

Is this bullish for a bounce back? Seems to be around $32 for the SLV (which trades at a discount to spot). Not that I try to trade this insanity anyway.

Thanks Turd for this site. It is a great support group for painful days like we have seen lately. Like I have said, the monkeys are in charge of the price and it will be whatever they want until the shutters are closed and they settle in fiat.


The Watchman
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:59pm
Dec 20, 2012 - 2:01pm

Sorry for being negative towards your negativity ...

I apologize because I am going to use that dreaded "K" (acronym) word. As a contrarian and one who lauds fellow disparagers, I find some sense in the words of Andrew Maguire speaking of Silver in his interview today on K-N. Words such as "backwardation", "Over sold", "very large physical (Silver) buying", "Silver has diverged to extremes" and of course, that long awaited chart pattern relative to negative anxiety - "Capitulation/Classic Bottom".

IMHO this devilish scheme could unravel any day. It can not last much longer. The market forces are getting too strong.

Shoot me if you wish. I yam what I yam.

Happy Holidays to One and All! Santa Claus is coming to town ...

Dec 20, 2012 - 2:10pm

Decisions, decisions...

This is either the start of something very nasty, or the buying opportunity of the decade.

I'll buy tomorrow.

old tradesman
Dec 20, 2012 - 2:13pm

no kidding

Close Research Says: Studying Economics Turns You Into a Liar

By Jordan Weissmann

Ever hear the joke about the lying economist?

No? Well, neither have I. But we might need to come up with one.

Such is the takeaway from a working paper released in January, which I stumbled on while browsing Professor Andres Marroquin's top papers of 2012. Written by a pair of researchers from universities in Montreal and Madrid, it examined whether the study of economics made students more apt to lie for financial gain. The answer: a resounding yes.

Several past experiments have tried to test how people's personal beliefs and background influence their willingness to lie, and one, published in 2009, had yielded results suggesting that economics students were more likely to fib than those in other disciplines. Raul Lopez-Perez and Eli Spiegelman -- both economists themselves -- wanted to find out if those findings would hold up in another lab setting ... and if they did, exactly why that might be the case. Were econ students over-internalizing the lessons of the dismal science, which teaches that human being are supposed to act in their rational self interest? Or were dishonest young folks just more likely to sign up for econ classes in the first place?

Dec 20, 2012 - 2:15pm

Saxo Bank's 'outrageous' predictions:

World economy to face wild crises in 2013

Spain defaulting, oil falling to $50 a barrel and the DAX plunging 33% - Saxo Bank’s “outrageous predictions” for 2013 are like an economic Apocalypse.

­The Danish investment bank has published its unofficial predictions for the next year that are unlikely, but will send shock waves through the global markets if they happen. Bank experts say a financial catastrophe and war like consequences are closer than it seems.

According to Chief Economist Steen Jacobsen the bank’s main concern is the unprecedented combination of smug serenity and high risks in macroeconomic policies as the rapid growth of social tension threatens political and financial stability.

We expect the crisis to be like a forest fire – fast and furious – it will set the conditions for moving forward, as it always was: the real changes will be made only in exceptional circumstances after the war,” Jacobsen says.

He says, from the economic point of view, the world is close to wartime conditions as the burden of debt and fiscal deficits in western countries have reached levels similar to the end of World War II.

The authors of the report predict, next year society will move toward radical movements as both the ultra-right and ultra-left find supporters appealing to feelings of desperate voters who have nothing to lose.

Current major political tendencies are empty”, Jakobsen says. He adds that "Occupy Wall Street” movement was just the beginning of the process.

Saxo Bank predicts, Germany’s leading index the DAX could fall by 33% – to 5000 points – because of the economic slowdown in China, which will stop industrial growth in Germany.

The price of oil could plummet to $50 per barrel on growth of fuel production in the US. The bank sees gold losing its defensive nature and falling to $1,200 per ounce.

Though many prefer to be skeptical about the report, some of Saxo’s predictions did come true in the past, Ekaterina Kondrashova from Investcafe says.

Saxo Bank outrageous forecasts usually remain forecasts only. In 2011 for example, 9 out of 10 predictions didn’t come true. However, one of their predictions that yields on 30-year US T-bills would fall to 3% was correct. Anyway since it has become a tradition, Saxo Bank continues to post it annually, drawing additional publicity of the investment society and media,” Kondrashova told RT.

The Saxo Bank predictions also see Spain nearing default as the Spanish economy is already in very poor condition: disposable income of more than 1.8 million people is less than 400 euros per month, and of the 47 million living in the country only 17 million are employed.

According to the report, next year the ratings agencies could downgrade Spain to "junk" status pushing government bonds yields up to 10%.

Saxo Bank also forecasts that price of soy beans could skyrocket 50% and Japan may nationalize its electronic producers.

Dec 20, 2012 - 2:21pm

latest on NDAA......from ZHedge

The Section Preventing Indefinite Detention of Americans Without Trial Removed From Final NDAA Bill Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/20/2012 11:45 -0500

Via Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

While the Feinstein-Lee Amendment wasn’t perfect, it was a small step forward as I outlined in my piece: My Thoughts on the Feinstein-Lee Amendment to the NDAA. Amazingly, this small victory has been stripped out of the final bill by our “representatives.” If this doesn’t prove without a shadow of a doubt that this government is criminal and wants the power to lock up citizens without trial I don’t know what will. From the Huffington Post:

WASHINGTON — Congress stripped a provision Tuesday from a defense bill that aimed to shield Americans from the possibility of being imprisoned indefinitely without trial by the military. The provision was replaced with a passage that appears to give citizens little protection from indefinite detention.

The new provision appears to do little, because the Supreme Court has already declared that the writ of habeas corpus — requiring that someone be presented to a judge — applies to all people. The more difficult part of whether people deserve a trial remains unsettled, and the new provision does not appear to resolve it.

Could their intentions be any more clear?

Full article here.

Bill of Rights
Dec 20, 2012 - 2:22pm
Dec 20, 2012 - 2:23pm
old tradesman
Dec 20, 2012 - 2:27pm

for those that didnt read the article

(This is how it ended) Still, next time a company whips out a too-good-to-be-true economic forecast from a paid consultant, remember, you've been warned. And yes Im going with door #2. (imo it is 80%)

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