Some Charts

283
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:15pm

I've received several requests to "do what I do". So, here you go. (Keeping in mind that you should probably do the opposite.)

First of all, these hourly charts are astonishing. Just six, short trading days ago, The Fed confirmed QE∞ at a minimum of $85B/month, all needed to fund the ongoing U.S. federal deficit. Instead of rallying, the metals have been slaughtered. Why? Hmmm...We've seen this phenomenon in crude before (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/curious-case-post-qe-oil-hangovers) & (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/why-oils-post-qe-plunge-may-be-over) and apparently it's worked so well there that The Fed and Their Cartel have decided to give it a go in the metals, too.

And now, mainly, I'm just mad at myself because I didn't see this coming. Of course The Fed is going to instruct their minions to crush the PMs. The Fed had no choice but to initiate QE∞ and the last thing they needed was an immediate, perceived quid pro quo with rising metals prices. The metals had to be crushed. It's all a part of their ongoing strategy of MOPE and SPIN. Duh! (Jeez, the more I type the more stoo-stoo-stoopid I feel. Better stop here.)

All that said, there is no reason to think that it's over, that the 12-year PM rally is kaput. I'm sure that the metals will stop and reverse, just like last year. The only question is, where? Since nothing has changed and the fundos are, in fact, even stronger than last year at this time, why would we expect prices to break any lower than they did a year ago? (Keeping in mind that the last sentence was typed by a guy who didn't see this selloff coming.) Sometime soon, the metals will reverse with a sharp, short-covering rally. That rally will likely stall and the momo-shorts will be emboldened to take another stab at the downside. Then, after failing to take things markedly lower, a bottom will form and price will begin to recover. If compelled to trade paper in this environment, here are some charts that show a striking similarity to the action of a year ago.

Hang in there. Good luck.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  283 Comments

Clubfoolish
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:55pm

So whaddya gonna do?!?

just bought another 300 ozs silver bars and ASE mix.

F'em, Feed'em fishheads.

Bollocks
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:56pm

@Cononish1314

"I attempted to log into Guernsey Mint"

If you're in the UK and are hoping to take advantage of the VAT - free purchases, then I think that's over now. I made a purchase recently and for the first time I was contacted for the VAT payment by Royal Mail. I called the import dept and explained the vat-exemption code on the customs declaration, which is applicable to legal-tender coins.

They said that they've been told by Customs that they must charge VAT and that they are to ignore the exemption code. This, of course, is illegal. Customs are ignoring their own rules -that VAT is NOT payable on legal-tender coins imported into the UK.

This communication from Customs came just a couple weeks ago, and Royal Mail are now charging VAT on all silver imports it seems.

The EE is tightening it's grip.

Bummer.

I've now switched to buying gold only.



GM Jenkins
Dec 20, 2012 - 3:56pm

And now, mainly, I'm just mad

And now, mainly, I'm just mad at myself because I didn't see this coming. Of course The Fed is going to instruct their minions to crush the PMs. The Fed had no choice but to initiate QE∞ and the last thing they needed was an immediate, perceived quid pro quo with rising metals prices


I agree - it's hard to imagine with all the obsessive planning and number-crunching and propagandistic perception-management that goes into the Fed's every decision and action, that they wouldn't have some kind of measure in place to keep inflation expectations from spiraling off the charts after such announcements. Two years in a row the metals are getting absolutely crushed in holiday trading after bullish early December news. Not surprising based on my Fundamental Law of the 21st Century Gold Bull Market:

"The price of gold will never fall so low that members of the middle class (working professionals, retirees, widows, etc.) who have not already bought bullion begin to feel psychologically comfortable buying bullion. Nor will price rise to the point where they begin to feel psychologically uncomfortable not buying bullion (i.e. they begin panic buying) until they are priced out of the market. In other words, until fiat money rapidly accelerates its approach to its intrinsic value of zero, gold will always be in a tight range where the growing obviousness that it's a good investment is matched by the appearance (and accompanying noise) that a massive sell-off is imminent."

Groaner
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:01pm

Yup, just like last Dec.

They realized that if they hit them hard during thinly traded markets they can do the most damage.

There is no other reason for this..

Becareful about jumping back in because I dont think they are done.. Next week too could be a big downer.

May see some short covering, bargain hunters here but they may smash some more..

Bollocks
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:09pm
Byzantium
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:11pm

@ GM Jenkins

"gold will always be in a tight range where the growing obviousness that it's a good investment is matched by the appearance (and accompanying noise) that a massive sell-off is imminent."

Spot on, that is exactly what I have been saying about silver these last days on these threads.

Reading between the lines, the cartel would seem to be frantically trying to fend off physical demand.

Let us hope that a real breakout is near.

Anonymous
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:21pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

thurd aye
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:29pm

I was just out for a

I was just out for a jog...........BWAH...... that hit the spot good one mate.

kryton619
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:29pm

The Beat Goes On

Main stream media https://in.reuters.com/article/2012/12/20/usa-fiscal-idINDEE8BH0CF20121220

"Investors so far have assumed the two sides will reach a deal, but concerns over the fiscal cliff have weighed on markets in recent weeks. The S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks .SPX was up 0.4 percent in Thursday trading, despite a round of strong data on economic growth and housing."

Really? How about a paragraph that indicates that the Fed is printing 1 Trillion dollars a year, the dollar index continues to drop, and PMs have had the shit kicked out of them for a week.

The Republicans don't want to see taxes increased, the Democrats don't want to cut social spending programs what don't these guys understand about a 17 trillion dollar debt?

And the beat goes on....

Sonny & Cher The Beat Goes On
old tradesman
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:31pm

Are the PTB Forcing Paulson to Sell His Gold...

buy the big boys (and give them cover)

to sheer the sheep

agNau
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:33pm

Yea....

The beat goes on! Redux!

Groaner
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:35pm

So this has to confirm that you dont second guess the cot

reports. They will cover their shorts, its just trying to figure out when?

ltcolkilgore
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:37pm

For what it's worth...

Many of the comments today lead me to think of this... I stack whenever I'm able to but, do I have enough beans, bullets, and band aids???

Stack until it hurts...

ilion
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:39pm

Kyle Bass on gold

Here are the latest thoughts from legendary fund manager Kyle Bass. Talks also about gold. Says Japan is now close to bond market crash and will ultimately default.

https://www.armadamarkets.com/market-info/videos/

thurd aye
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:39pm

So OZ and NZ totally

So OZ and NZ totally destroyed by now the. I got 20 minutes,then ta-tar people,then you lot in cowboyland got 7 hours before youre blown away.Nice knowin ya folks........bloody Mayans.

GoldMania3000
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:47pm
Logiwave
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:48pm

We need action not empty promises

I would like to suggest that we each send an email to the Chilton BChilton[at]CFTC[dot]gov and demand an explanation to the lack of action on their part on Silver and Gold especially given what's happened in the past week or so...

Lately both gold and silver have been hit at the same times for no apparent reason...while the US dollar is down, oil is up, the general equities markets are up, announcement of QE to infinity in both US and Japan, no end solution to European crisis, no outside news/rumours...all supportive for precious metals, but yet gold and silver get hammered at all the usual times, at the Comex (Crimex) open or right after the London close. If this is not manipulation than what is it? If someone was manipulating the price of oil in this fashion, but to the upside, the CFTC would be all over it like starving buzzards and would quickly find a way to put an end to it. So, I believe they have the tools and means (especially with four years of hard evidence and whistle blowers) to put an end to the silver/gold manipulation, the only thing missing is the will power. I know that frustrations are running high, but please be kind and non-abusive when communicating with Chilton as we all know their hands have been tied by the Fed and the US Government, but we need to keep up the pressure for a resolution.
Urban Roman
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:55pm

LCS Report

So, I swung by the LCS this afternoon. They were busy! A number of people were selling their penny collections or handfuls of old pocket change. I think there was a Turdite in line ahead of me. Kept saying "Me want silver!" (in the voice of the Cookie Monster)... then I realized that I left my wallet in the other pants and didn't have anything to pay them with. So made a round trip home.

Their "junk" (non-numismatic) silver was pretty picked over. The 100-oz "doorstop" they told me about on Thanksgiving week was gone. Said they sold it last week. Ended up buying 1 ASE (in the non-numismatic box because of tarnish and scratches) and some generic rounds. Just guessing, but I'd say they'll be completely out of "junk" silver by tomorrow afternoon. I think they sold all the pre-1964 stuff to the Turdite.

There was a nice affluent-looking lady picking out some ASEs for Christmas presents for her husband. She asked if I thought it was a good idea to have silver in case the economy crashed? I said "Yes but WTFDIK, I'm just a degenerate silverbug."

They still have quite a few ASEs and a variety of other numismatic items in the shop. Their price on nice individually-sleeved ASEs was $36 - $48, presumably depending on condition. And that's the way it is in Jollyville today.

old tradesman
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:56pm

My last post

This is my last post. Ive got my self and mine ready. And always have known you can lead a horse to water but you cant make them drink. Ive shook mens hands for a house sale. Ive shook mens hands for alot of things. With 50 years of contracting, I can say I will always have a specific contract with whomever I work with anymore. Trust in a hand shake is gone! Im going to leave it to you youngsters. Good luck in all you do. on a side note, the bickering between you girls yesterday on the trolls, is not constructive, I had more fun reading the more informed, conversation of why and how, than the your not aloud bullshit. And you corrective english spelling little shits. Go to a teach a fucking english lit class! Tradesman out!

esentrik
Dec 20, 2012 - 4:58pm

Contrarian indicator

Turd, I read your site daily but your track record as of late is starting to make you a bit of a contrarian indicator

Bought 2 10 oz bars today. Couldn't resist.

BTFD

Prize Fighter
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:00pm

Gap up close to filling.  Oh

Gap up close to filling. Oh do shut up Prize Fighter. Well, sorry I can't. I don't expect anyone to remember my random calls of gap-up warnings, let alone take action on them, but I will share this again as it may come to pass, again. My purpose for posting this, as I state in this 2-months old post, is IF it happens it may provide a reason to allay your fears. We are very close. If we hit ~28.60 then the 5-minute gap-up indicator I watch will have successfully telegraphed every single one of these "unexplained" moves.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/137111#comment-137111
Submitted by Prize Fighter on October 23, 2012 - 8:29pm.

"Short term silver....I've bought as recently as this afternoon BUT I'm going to call an outside chance of another run at $28 something. (Gary Johnson just said "silver bullet" at the debate...huh? what was he saying?) Anyway...here's why...

Post QE3, I threw away all my personal TA metrics and just let the big dog run. What did I care, my last big buy was 27.14. I've made mention of watching for gap-ups on 5-minute candles. This method made me sit on the sidelines when silver ran to $37 because i was waiting for a gap to fill at 27.50. Got it, bought it, happy, done. Took 5 months for it to happen but it did.

Well, just before the big announcement another small gap up was created around $28.60 which I was watching. But after QE3 I just tossed that old gap methodology aside and surely thought this would override the smallest of gaps and haven't mentioned it since. (Plus, like I said, I was out of dry powder so what did I care really? It served me when I needed it.) Now that MOPE is back in the markets and weekly silver candlesticks and trendlines show me strong rising support in that gap area of ~$28, I'm haunted by it.

If it happens, I won't be surprised and I'll at least have something to point at to allay my fears. I really really think that would be a great scare and immediate rebound area. I didn't think it possible weeks ago, now...maybe? I know that doesn't help but self honesty is something I value no matter how much it hurts.

I could equally be wrong on all of this. It's only one metric I follow(ed). If it does happen, you can bet it will be first string again. Maybe it's just another one of Santa's self-fulfilling tricks they use. *shrug"

1 hat tip

Now, go buy silver and enjoy your holidays.

Apples
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:06pm

ABQBear On junk silver at

ABQBear

On junk silver at Provident, I have seen them swap one type for another with regularity. Would not read much into it... it appears they will fill any junk silver order with whatever they have on hand, regardless of what you specified.

Personally I find Provident good in many ways except on junk silver.

Jason Foster
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:07pm

Chilton is just a diversion

C'mon. Does anyone actually think that there is even one sole employee of any U.S. regulatory agency that would dare cross The Beast? Chilton is, and has always been, just for looks. Keep the cards and letters coming in, ladies and gentlemen. I'm sure it annoys the CFTC as they have to hit the delete key every morning.

rl999
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:07pm

a while back

Someone here posted that they were going to begin trading, purchased A.M.'s subscription service and found it was not what they had expected (said it was an indecipherable language). Instead they went a different route and were happy with that. Whichever turdite that was, if you read this I'd like to ask you a couple questions.

Basil
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:14pm

Anyone know how Andrew Maguire did today ?

Does anyone know how Andrew Maguire and his "army" got on in todays bloodbath ?

Just wondering if he made a stack on the short side ........... or not ?

Perhaps he LOST a stack on the long side although I guess that's unlikely

rl999
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:30pm

LCS update

Stopped by today and chit chatted about the ~15% drop in the last two weeks. He is going with the theory that it is end of year selling and covering. He thinks that the fed has to inflate or die. Says Japan has to take drastic action.

Junk is down to $24/ dollar of face. He offered me a roll of BU '63 dimes at $120, which I happily accepted. I came back a few hours later to pick them up, and he said someone had come in and purchased all his dimes. Maybe I'll go back tomorrow and offer him a couple rolls for some halves.

I saw a large cash deal go down, but I am not sure what they were buying, just that it was about 8-10k, all twenty bills. Makes a pretty decent sized stack. There was a trash bag on the table too, so that was kinda funny.

SIlverbee
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:41pm

Help.

I chopped up some red bell pepper and white onion to put on my son's pizza. As I was going to grill it quickly I gave them a quick zap in the microwave. Guess what? they sparked! It appeared to be only the peppers so I separated them out and just did the onion and it was fine. I put just the pepper in and it sparked? I thought it only sparked with ferrous or metallic objects?

philly SIlverbee
Dec 20, 2012 - 6:07pm

Found this...

Found this on the internet and obviously, since it was on the internet...it must be true!! "Iron is not a requirement, but the fruit/vegitable must be juicy. And peppers ARE juicy. All juices are "electrolytic" and contain ions (sodium ions especially) which carry electric currents. Tap water contains enough mineral ions to carry electric currents, why not fruit juice? "Some" minerals is enough; you don't need "a lot." For the phenomenon to occur, the fruit/vegetable must be the right size. Roundness is not as important: I have experienced the effect with cubed carrots. What happens (simplest explanation) is the microwaves cause a resonant current inside the fruit. The juice heats up and vaporizes, and the cloud of vapor becomes the medium in which the microwaves resonate. Ionized vapor heats up and reaches the state of plasma (thousands of degrees F).

Let me guess that your pepper was chopped into approx 1/2 inch pieces?" Sounds believable enough to this non-physics major!!

Green Lantern
Dec 20, 2012 - 6:09pm

@silverbee

the mineral content in peppers and celery and other vegetables. do a youtube search. People have filmed their flaming vegetables. And other reference to this problem online. I stack gold and silver. That makes me an outcast. I threw out my microwave years ago, that makes me anti-social. Microwave radiation I'd rather do without. Gotta deal with GMO's. I can do almost anything with a stove and an oven. At most it takes a few minutes longer.

Prize Fighter
Dec 20, 2012 - 6:18pm

Setup look familiar?

One quick dip below our long trendline before resuming up would seem par for the course. It would of course close any gaps in that $28 region. Remember, these are weekly candlesticks. Price could be under that line for a day or two and still only leave a tail by the end of a week. I've sent a buy alert to friends and family.

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