Some Charts

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:15pm

I've received several requests to "do what I do". So, here you go. (Keeping in mind that you should probably do the opposite.)

First of all, these hourly charts are astonishing. Just six, short trading days ago, The Fed confirmed QE∞ at a minimum of $85B/month, all needed to fund the ongoing U.S. federal deficit. Instead of rallying, the metals have been slaughtered. Why? Hmmm...We've seen this phenomenon in crude before ( & ( and apparently it's worked so well there that The Fed and Their Cartel have decided to give it a go in the metals, too.

And now, mainly, I'm just mad at myself because I didn't see this coming. Of course The Fed is going to instruct their minions to crush the PMs. The Fed had no choice but to initiate QE∞ and the last thing they needed was an immediate, perceived quid pro quo with rising metals prices. The metals had to be crushed. It's all a part of their ongoing strategy of MOPE and SPIN. Duh! (Jeez, the more I type the more stoo-stoo-stoopid I feel. Better stop here.)

All that said, there is no reason to think that it's over, that the 12-year PM rally is kaput. I'm sure that the metals will stop and reverse, just like last year. The only question is, where? Since nothing has changed and the fundos are, in fact, even stronger than last year at this time, why would we expect prices to break any lower than they did a year ago? (Keeping in mind that the last sentence was typed by a guy who didn't see this selloff coming.) Sometime soon, the metals will reverse with a sharp, short-covering rally. That rally will likely stall and the momo-shorts will be emboldened to take another stab at the downside. Then, after failing to take things markedly lower, a bottom will form and price will begin to recover. If compelled to trade paper in this environment, here are some charts that show a striking similarity to the action of a year ago.

Hang in there. Good luck.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 20, 2012 - 12:18pm



My first 1st.

Thanks, Turd, for all you do.

God Bless your family this holiday season!

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:21pm


Does this change your thoughts on new highs in both metals before 5/1/2013 at all? Just curious.

The Swedish Chef
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:21pm



Apperntly not but second at least.

Turd, please tell Roubini to shut his piehole, He´s been understandably silent the last six months but the gloating has gone in to overdrive today on Twitter. I asked him about his assured Grexit but he didn´t answer. Guess he´s still digging himself out of that hole.

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:23pm
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:23pm


But it certainly makes it look less likely, doesn't it?

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:24pm

who cares

it,s only paper , who cares

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:26pm

Xmas jollies

Last year I felt caught up in a fairly chunky paper silver position going into the holidays. I decided to puke it out for year end, and sure enough that was the bottom. Does history repeat itself?

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:28pm

I've picked my bottom...

And it's rosy!!!

I'm not buying here (I'm overbought, personally, anyway). But if/when Gold hits $1550, I'll buy another ounce. If/When silver hits $26.50, I'll buy a bunch of it.

Thing is, I can't really afford to buy right now (holidays and all that), so these are the prices that would compel me to stretch thin.

There you go fellow Turds. Now that I've announced this, I've ensured the bottoms will be much lower (as the cartel always reads what I think and then makes it go down much, much lower).

Merry Christmas everyone. Happy stackin'! My SBSS Trivium medallions are on the way in the mail, just in time for Christmas gifts! Get 'em while you can! (And at these prices, who wouldn't?)

Edward G
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:38pm

Clive mourned (cdn't think of a title lol)

Not easy to foresee, an impressive crushing. Hat contenders were very 'Blythely' unsuspecting also...

What I keep thinking about is some kind of fire drill for when it finally retains the all time high, or 48+,.... on the 'Charlie Brown kicking the field goal' prinicple it will be very hard for anyone to stay long right there. I guess it will be very very important to have the facts at a time like that, e.g. how much is it a short-covering rally, in which case when does it run out of juice, or otherwise, is it a capitulation, or a big 'correction' to a sort of 60-70 level, HEH etc

This is a level that is of much more significance for the stacker side of things, than right here (with all due respect to traders)... one might guess you would get a 'human nature' loss of bullishness there and a rise in short interest like in May 11, + a tempting profit-taking opportunity and even a recouping one for some.....

I wonder if others are pre-occupied with this line of thought... especially when times remind you of such unpredictability... the only predictable seeeeems to be regular whoopings.....

Barth Vader
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:43pm

years end is nearing, they

years end is nearing, they want gold to close real low for the statistics and you will see news everywhere that the bullmarket in gold is over. Only yesterday i read an article that "keeping gold on shelves will help no crisis" I guess there are more stackers in my country that are in need of brainwash by TPTB.

My best guess is that i keep my powder dry (for what its worth), becuase much better prices must be comming.


untouched upond so far i believe: We've seen it before that big banks give high prices targets soon after which the metals were smashed. ( i have seen several on ZH the past few weeks) Banks are good contrarian indicators.All orchestrated but a good oppurtinity for the stackers that have become pilers.

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:46pm

Again, the PTB present us with choices . . . it's up to us:

We can accept that the problems of the world are solved, and we are back on solid footing again. The unsustainable debt is gone, the dollar is "good as gold" and there is 5 billion ounces of physical silver laying around the offices of JPM.

Or, we can think about the possibility that maybe, the PTB are trying to extend the dollar hegemony and the financial system a little bit longer. We know that rising gold and silver ATTRACTS investors--even trolls! Dropping silver and gold prices produces sellers.

Bull markets carry as few riders as possible, otherwise, they are not bull markets.

The PTB are preparing for the next financial system. Dollars (or their offspring) will likely still be around, but they won't be able to be traded for gold and silver at anything remotely close to current trade values.

Those are your choices. You must choose. If you choose door #2, realize nobody knows the exact date. Be smart, and scale buying of physical into price takedowns, and scale selling of paper into price rises. Always keep enough fiat on hand to make the monthly expenses.

But be aware, if you choose door #2, the PTB will make it look scary, and try to entice you to the safety of door #1. Time to choose.

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:50pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:52pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:00pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:00pm

Just Remember

There is a silver lining.......and a golden opportunity... or the paper ponzi.....the choice is yours.....

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:13pm


GC weekly and monthly both hitting possible support. A little hope for those taking it on the chin.

department of truth
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:13pm

$29.765 and dropping

Charts only work if the markets aren't rigged.

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:16pm

@department of truth

Nope, they work best when the IS rigged.

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:23pm

rigged market?

all markets are rigged.

Big Buffalo
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:32pm

my ass is rigged

my ass is rigged

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:35pm

EVIL is too nice a term to apply to this financial and

government system.

sociopaths. Lanza did it with a gun, these guys do it with paper, no difference

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:37pm

Re: What Bothers Me

(Sorry for the repost....I just wanted to post this is the new thread as well....because I feel like the reads/conversation will gravitate to this thread from the last thread).

I am a bit with Harlan here....I often wonder this myself....

I understand we have manipulation in the metals that is inexplicable in the face of the fundamentals. But the major raids would often come during times that a catalyst was denied (spin from Bernake about no more QE, good BLSBS numbers etc.

But now we are getting slammed after QE 3/4, as there is coordinated money printing, as we are near the edge of a fiscal cliff, as the dollar is TANKING. Aren't these all the things that we have been waiting for to move us up to the next level?

Sure they've always manipulated the metals, but if these catalyst don't bring about a move up, i am starting to think their ability to manipulate this thing is so great (right now at least) that maybe we won't see new highs until the whole system breaks? And I know that is a good thing when it comes to giving us more time to accumulate more metal, but I just wonder how far their power to hold prices down goes in all this?

What is the answer? Exactly what he says is what is startling me....this is what we were waiting all of 2012 for (QE4, US Dollar moving lower, etc.) and yet we are getting smashed. These were the "headlines" that we were waiting for, yet here we are. If these past few weeks/announcements (plus US Dollar trading lower) are the catalysts to move up, where will we be when this is all old news? What stops them for doing this forever if they can now even after/during all these headlines we wanted?

For the record, I am not a bear when it comes to the PMs....I have more money in the PMs than I probably should for my age...and have convinced others to put more money than they probably should for their age as well....but this, not the fundamentals, is what keeps a guy up at night...

These are questions I have never read a good answer to.....anyone??

silverdawg Anonymous
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:40pm

I believe JPIG plans to loot

I believe JPIG plans to loot slv to cover its shorts, first massive naked short selling drives the price down, and emergency is declared freezing the price at the manipulated low, but somehow JPIG manages to take delivery of most of the silver in slv at the manipulated low price. Bankers need to be hung for their crimes!

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:41pm
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:43pm

repost from bottom of last thread

i smell a bottom!

if i'm right, it's bad news and good news

the bad news is that bottoms usually smell like shit

the good news is that we stop going down and (maybe) begin to recover.

since about 11:30/11:45 est, metals and miners have stopped going down. some are just going sideways, some are moving up. i smell a bottom. i'm not yet sure that i see one.

"waiting will fill" -v.m smith

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:46pm

Its almost over...

Hang in there chaps...

MENTAL FORTITUDE is needed here.


thurd aye
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:47pm

TF/ You were supposed to be

TF/ You were supposed to be having time with family,now you put out not one post ,but two. I don't know Craig.


I had a thought( getting lonely in my brain) the big one could be related to this knock down.

They pull it down to ,say,$1500,then declare confiscation.($1mil fines)

An immediate reset to $5,$7,$10,000 and bingo ...aims achieved.We get $1500 FRNs and whoopee,NOT A LOT. Just a thought.'Cos I'm reading I suppose.

You never know though. ;O))

Ernie Pantusso
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:49pm

Just wondering what is

Just wondering what is happening right now in London. How many physical buy orders are getting triggered? Please Turd if you get something from your sources tell us. Sinclair seems to say this is the last take down before they go long.

(HAWK where are you when we need you. I ventilated the possibility of a conclusive sell off with silver taken down to 26 and you mocked me. You got you hts lecturing us about why it would be impossible. Where are you hiding now junior)

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:51pm

It's all good.......

think about the hundreds of millions out there that haven't got a clue what's'll make you feel a little better.

..... either you have studied the fundamentals and have the conviction's of your beliefs or you don't.... the wishy washy are neither winners or losers.....they spend all their time on the sidelines, no?........ So i have something profound to say; Ahhh, fuck it....i'm a buyer here....

tomorrow i may be posting this instead

.........but, my family is i don't give a shit. Hang tough Turd...... but maybe we ought to re-evaluate the opponent.....

Dec 20, 2012 - 1:51pm

Sorry to see so many "bent" pitchforks...

Now may be a good time to get defensive?...

Bag Of Gold

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories