Some Charts

283
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 12:15pm

I've received several requests to "do what I do". So, here you go. (Keeping in mind that you should probably do the opposite.)

First of all, these hourly charts are astonishing. Just six, short trading days ago, The Fed confirmed QE∞ at a minimum of $85B/month, all needed to fund the ongoing U.S. federal deficit. Instead of rallying, the metals have been slaughtered. Why? Hmmm...We've seen this phenomenon in crude before (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/curious-case-post-qe-oil-hangovers) & (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/why-oils-post-qe-plunge-may-be-over) and apparently it's worked so well there that The Fed and Their Cartel have decided to give it a go in the metals, too.

And now, mainly, I'm just mad at myself because I didn't see this coming. Of course The Fed is going to instruct their minions to crush the PMs. The Fed had no choice but to initiate QE∞ and the last thing they needed was an immediate, perceived quid pro quo with rising metals prices. The metals had to be crushed. It's all a part of their ongoing strategy of MOPE and SPIN. Duh! (Jeez, the more I type the more stoo-stoo-stoopid I feel. Better stop here.)

All that said, there is no reason to think that it's over, that the 12-year PM rally is kaput. I'm sure that the metals will stop and reverse, just like last year. The only question is, where? Since nothing has changed and the fundos are, in fact, even stronger than last year at this time, why would we expect prices to break any lower than they did a year ago? (Keeping in mind that the last sentence was typed by a guy who didn't see this selloff coming.) Sometime soon, the metals will reverse with a sharp, short-covering rally. That rally will likely stall and the momo-shorts will be emboldened to take another stab at the downside. Then, after failing to take things markedly lower, a bottom will form and price will begin to recover. If compelled to trade paper in this environment, here are some charts that show a striking similarity to the action of a year ago.

Hang in there. Good luck.

TF

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  283 Comments

winemaker
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:18pm

Hi

Yeeha!

My first 1st.

Thanks, Turd, for all you do.

God Bless your family this holiday season!

brokerk22
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:21pm

@turd

Does this change your thoughts on new highs in both metals before 5/1/2013 at all? Just curious.

The Swedish Chef
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:21pm

Furst!

Furst!

Apperntly not but second at least.

Turd, please tell Roubini to shut his piehole, He´s been understandably silent the last six months but the gloating has gone in to overdrive today on Twitter. I asked him about his assured Grexit but he didn´t answer. Guess he´s still digging himself out of that hole.

Dec 20, 2012 - 12:23pm
brokerk22
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:23pm

No

But it certainly makes it look less likely, doesn't it?

peettie01
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:24pm

who cares

it,s only paper , who cares

bratlever
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:26pm

Xmas jollies

Last year I felt caught up in a fairly chunky paper silver position going into the holidays. I decided to puke it out for year end, and sure enough that was the bottom. Does history repeat itself?

pourty
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:28pm

I've picked my bottom...

And it's rosy!!!

I'm not buying here (I'm overbought, personally, anyway). But if/when Gold hits $1550, I'll buy another ounce. If/When silver hits $26.50, I'll buy a bunch of it.

Thing is, I can't really afford to buy right now (holidays and all that), so these are the prices that would compel me to stretch thin.

There you go fellow Turds. Now that I've announced this, I've ensured the bottoms will be much lower (as the cartel always reads what I think and then makes it go down much, much lower).

Merry Christmas everyone. Happy stackin'! My SBSS Trivium medallions are on the way in the mail, just in time for Christmas gifts! Get 'em while you can! (And at these prices, who wouldn't?)

Edward G
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:38pm

Clive mourned (cdn't think of a title lol)

Not easy to foresee, an impressive crushing. Hat contenders were very 'Blythely' unsuspecting also...

What I keep thinking about is some kind of fire drill for when it finally retains the all time high, or 48+,.... on the 'Charlie Brown kicking the field goal' prinicple it will be very hard for anyone to stay long right there. I guess it will be very very important to have the facts at a time like that, e.g. how much is it a short-covering rally, in which case when does it run out of juice, or otherwise, is it a capitulation, or a big 'correction' to a sort of 60-70 level, HEH etc

This is a level that is of much more significance for the stacker side of things, than right here (with all due respect to traders)... one might guess you would get a 'human nature' loss of bullishness there and a rise in short interest like in May 11, + a tempting profit-taking opportunity and even a recouping one for some.....

I wonder if others are pre-occupied with this line of thought... especially when times remind you of such unpredictability... the only predictable seeeeems to be regular whoopings.....

Barth Vader
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:43pm

years end is nearing, they

years end is nearing, they want gold to close real low for the statistics and you will see news everywhere that the bullmarket in gold is over. Only yesterday i read an article that "keeping gold on shelves will help no crisis" I guess there are more stackers in my country that are in need of brainwash by TPTB.

My best guess is that i keep my powder dry (for what its worth), becuase much better prices must be comming.

ps:

untouched upond so far i believe: We've seen it before that big banks give high prices targets soon after which the metals were smashed. ( i have seen several on ZH the past few weeks) Banks are good contrarian indicators.All orchestrated but a good oppurtinity for the stackers that have become pilers.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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