Getting Out of Hand

204
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 10:09am

Well, what are ya gonna do? I suppose you can be angry with me and everyone else because I certainly don't know of anyone who saw this coming. But the thing has taken on a life of its own now and there's really nothing anyone can do about it.

Would it be worth the time to sit here and bang out all of the reasons again why you own precious metal? Do I need to discuss the fundamentals again and all of the attendant rationale for doing what we do? Nah. Probably not. You've heard it so many times now I'm sure you could repeat everything in your sleep.

I could probably tell you about the short-term technicals and how oversold they are. Just a couple of days ago I mentioned that major selloffs typically don't begin from the oversold levels we were at then. And now look at things!

Maybe I should even waste a few moments going over the physical demand in London and how this will, inevitably, turn paper price around, lead to a stabilization and then a rebound. I could do that but why? You already know that.

In the end, this is nothing new. We saw this in May of 2011. We saw it in September of 2011 and again in December of last year. We saw it in February of this year, too. The metals rally. The Cartels sell all the way up by creating unlimited amounts of unbacked, paper shorts. Eventually, the rally runs out of steam. Some profit-taking ensues. The Cartels give things a shove and down she goes. Soon, the momo-chasing HFTs take over and really drive price down. Into this selling, The Cartels cover nearly all of the shorts they created on the way up until, presto/chango, we are right back to where we started.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Only two things can possibly break this cycle:

  1. The toothless, hapless and corrupt commissioners of the CFTC will, one day, have to act upon the undeniable evidence before them. (Don't hold your breath.)
  2. Physical depletion continues until the market simply breaks. (And this is where we come in.)

Your job today is to relax. Yes, this manufactured event will likely continue but it will also end in the same way the other manufactured corrections have ended. Soon, there will be a very sharp, snap-back rally. It will emerge suddenly and catch traders by surprise. That rally will run out of steam and the shorts will attempt to re-assert themselves. Price will dive again but, ultimately, fail to make significant new lows. From there, a double or reverse H&S bottom will form and price will begin to recover.

In the meantime, head down to your local coin shop and add to your stack today (if they'll actually sell to you at these discounted prices). The only way we can be assured of victory is by taking action ourselves. The fraud that is the CFTC cannot be counted on to help us. Only we can help us.

Keep the faith. Persevere. Be strong and BTFD (again).

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  204 Comments

Outfitter
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:27am

"It was the Dukes"

"They are panicking Mortimore, I can smell them.."

"It was the Dukes, It was the Dukes"!

Billy Ray Valentine

Maybe a better quote for today.

"Whiskey, all you want"

BagOfGold
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:28am

YUUPP!!!...

I just made a profit of over 27% on Alexandria Minerals!...Going back in again at 5 1/2 cents!!!...

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/153472#comment-153472

Bag Of Gold

jmsvett FABGold
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:28am

Tbr/tlr

Be careful. You have a share dilution as well.

Byzantium
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:30am

I'll stick my neck out, and state....

this waterfall is a prelude to an even greater upswing.

I love Jim Willie's writings but I am with Sinclair on this one; the rich are covering their shorts and filling their boots.

I am hunkering down in investment terms, notwithstanding that the GSR blew through 55 today, and I am swapping gold for silver. I'll swap it back again sub 50.

I'd expect the rebound before mid january, but that's just gut feel.

dudestacker
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:31am

Black Knights all, are we

Monty Python-The Black Knight
Dr G
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:31am

Now that London is closed, we

Now that London is closed, we should see some real drops on the chart. Right?

@Byzantium, a rebound to what? $35? That would be an increase of over 20%. Quite the move, but only $35.

tyberious
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:32am

@DrG

Even if you have doubts about all of the KWN "Pumpers", Santa should be given respect! The man is honest, though found of riddles, and has an insight that only a few have, that includes Andy and Ned.

Bill of Rights
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:33am

Not to sure about the rest of

Not to sure about the rest of you Gents and Ladies, but at $27 I am cleaning the shelves at my LCS...lol

MollyRatchet
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:33am

@ Binzer

Understood .. you certainly don't win popularity votes in this site because of different views.

This is not to criticize the mindset of the blog, but just to allow opposing healthy, RATIONAL views from time to time.

There is certainly nothing wrong with reasoning ...

MR

LOUP-GAROU
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:33am

does'nt matter

what the paper price is! does anybody remember Santa saying there will be big swings in the paper price? take a look at the dollar index compared to gold https://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html shit is hitting the fan and if your that worried about the paper price then you shouldn't be investing in pm's in fact if your any kind of investor at all you look at the long term trend. If you got into the pm game late, buying at the highs, again your not an investor your a speculator and as anyone knows that has some investing experience that you NEVER put all your eggs in one basket! A mix of hard assets is the way to go along with dry powder! other than that you could try some equities, but if you have no stomach for pm's then you can't possible have the stomach for these hot air pumped up markets. And Turd, thank you for all you do on this site! No one can predict what the monkeys will do day to day when you have our fearless leaders of this country shoving their heads deeper and deeper into their asses!

Byzantium
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:34am

@ achamachat

Your investment is safe while you are underwater, you would sooner die than sell at a loss.

The problem comes when you are in profit again; THEN you will be put under intolerable pressure to sell.

I'm not laughing, I'm always in that battle. :-P

tyberious
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:35am

@DrG

This will make you day!

James Turk Revises His $8,000 Gold Target: “I now expect Gold to go higher Than $8,000″

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lhLzT4-9p78

indosil
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:36am

Time For Margin Calls??

Time For Margin Calls??...............fuckers....

Nana
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:37am

Put A Smile On My Face

Remembering Dr. Jerome picture of an up-side-down monitor.

Great picture!

bullwhip29
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:37am

@ opticsguy

RE: Since the 27th and 28th...

Long time, no speak. Up until this morning, I hadn't sensed any real panic yet. We could see 1598 later today if things in Wash get completely unglued. I'm not ruling out a big FUBM, but if it's going to happen, it better do so in the next couple of hours. It is also conceivable that the stock market has got it all wrong too and a massive world of hurt is just around the corner for holders of equities.

ag1969
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:37am

binzer

I can see why you would feel bad for the "many that have bought silver in particular based on what has been put out in the metals blog world". I too have empathy for people who lack critical thinking, historical perspective, and common sense so much so that they would buy something based on a blog. I come here because I did some thinking for myself, made a choice, and then chose to hang around with like minded people.

I do not blame anyone here for my decision to save real money rather than shit notes or shit note denominated assets. At the ripe old age of 43, I have learned that the blame game is for "The Biggest Losers", and that accepting responsibility for my own actions is probably the best example I can set for my children.

My Dad used to tell me to make my own decisions and be man enough to pay the consequences. I don't want to speak for him, bless his soul, but my guess is that he would have thought you were a complete pussy. Cheers!

jolidacrown
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:37am

Gold support may come @ 1612

Gold support may come @ 1612 - if that is breached 1525 may be next step down - Asians love the sales.

Pax Argentum
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:38am

Why would I be angry with you?

When all you've done for the past two years is tell me to buy silver and buy gold. BTFD, and then do a pretty damn good job of predicting the dips...and even when you miss....the reasons have been quite clear. The Cartel can drop the price when and where they wish, without consequence and at the drop of a hat. Might as well try to predict the weather 6 months from now.

As for me, I cost average my purchases (another thing I learned about here since my noob-days) and so I welcome any opportunity to add a few more Eagles or Maples to the stack for the same pile of fiat.

As you said over a year ago, the beginning of the end-game will be when the Fed is overtly monetizing the majority of US government debt. Check the morning papers, we're there.

Thanks for giving me a two-year headstart. I am truly grateful.

Pax

Feed the Turd.

old tradesman
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:39am

The twelve days of christmas

Ive devided the fiat into twelve. on the first day of christmas(I think you get the point)

Teach
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:40am

Baileys inadequate...

maybe Jack Daniels? Unfriggin-believable. Better dump the stash before it goes lower. Yah....riiiggghhhtttt.

Ferd Torgerson
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:41am

Feels Like . . .

. . . every bone in my body has been broken today.

But not quite. I still had enough use of my right index finger that I could operate my mouse and click on the “Feed the Turd” button.

Thanks, Turd. Sorry it could not have been for more.

In looking at the desolation that has been wrought on my mining shares, I’m almost ready to resort to the secret magic chant Turd told me about – put both hands on my pc screen and whisper “Go Huskers” ten times.

I try to keep a positive outlook. As my shares go lower, there is less room for them to drop further. At some point, they will likely recover and I can bequeath them to my heirs. If they don’t recover and go to zero, I’ll bequeath them to my faithful friend and ex-brother-in-law Murphy.

tyberious
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:41am

Jim Willie

Jim Willie (www.goldenjackass.com)

INTRO MONETARY FRAGMENTS

A SOCIAL CATASTROPHE FOR THE UNITED STATES AWAITS. POVERTY AND HUNGER WILL PREVAIL. THE PROOF OF THE UNITED STATES FALLING INTO THE THIRD WORLD IS ELUSIVE.

The data screams of several pathways with growing legions of members. The number of Americans receiving Food Stamps reached a new record in August this year, at 47.1 million people. That is two of every 13 people, according to the USDept Agriculture. Fully 20% of households in the state of Mississippi are on Food Stamp aid. The figure has risen by 50% since October 2008. A bill is before the USCongress to slash $billions from the program. The official calculation measures 49.7 million people living beneath the poverty line in the United States, or 16.1% of the total population, according to the US Census Bureau. In 2006 there were 37.3 million people in poverty and 12.5% was the official poverty rate. The California poverty rate is at 23.5%, nearly one in four residents in the once highly prosperous giant state. The Census data revealed that median household income in America, adjusted for inflation, fell by 1.5% from the previous year. The figure was 8.1% lower than in 2007 and 8.9% lower than its high point in 1999. Factor in a realistic CPI inflation rate, and the income decline in the real world is much worse. The income of the typical US family is falling every single year.

In 2011, jobless insurance helped 26 million workers, and lifted 2.3 million people, including more than 600,000 children, above the poverty line. However, imposed limits on jobless aid are taking a toll. In 2010, about 67% of people counted in the UGovt official unemployment figures received unemployment benefits. By 2011, only 54% received jobless aid. This year the figure fell to only 45%, according to the National Employment Law Project. The federally extended unemployment benefits are due to end by December 31st. They were implemented in response to a powerful economic recession and chronic jobless condition. When the program is ended, two million people will be cut off, at which time the standard aid will cover only 26 weeks of jobless insurance. Let it be known that the Jackass was laid off from a good professional staff position in August 2003, at which time the groundwork was laid for launching the Hat Trick Letter. See the Global Research article (CLICK HERE).

THE FACE OF WHAT SYSTEMIC FAILURE LOOKS LIKE IS SLOWING BECOMING APPARENT. THE PICTURE SLOWLY BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

The vast insolvency permeates the entire US nation, well described and even forecasted within the Hat Trick Letter. Banks no longer function as credit suppliers, nor as company incubators. Households are largely wiped out of home equity, most life savings stuck in the stock market and bond market. The USGovt is indescribably bankrupt, that fact more evident to the masses with each passing year. The endless war has ransacked the nation, the decades of war having causing at least half of the entire $17 trillion in accumulated debt. Yet the military budget remains as sacred as the wars. Factories have in the main been shut down or dispatched to Asia where labor is cheaper and unions are less demanding. The central bank policy is to offer money at zero cost for the connected tribes and to purchase unlimited bonds to keep the system running. However, the system is failing.

The face of failure will be many sided. There will be supply line disruptions in food and commodities from the vast Mississippi River artery. There will be storms and earthquakes, which add to significant disruption and economic damage, whose origins are suspicious. There will be rising cost of living for the entire worker class, with angry feedback in form of strikes. This is the fuse to light the powder keg in my view. The official US security stance against terror threats contributes to isolation on a global level. There will be USDollar currency caught in isolation, not widely accepted by foreign suppliers, forcing extreme economic duress. The isolation grows each month, hastened ironically by the Iran sanctions. There already is broken USGovt apparatus on debt management, with a possible failure to raise debt limit soon. The forced across the board USGovt budget cuts will push the system into a grand stumble. The effect on the USEconomy will be profound. The recession has been a constant at minus 4% to minus 6% annually since 2008 in the world of reality with proper accounting.

Expect deep anger and resentment among the population for political class, not only the banker class. The awareness of banker control of the USGovt is the newest element in popular movements laden with demonstrations. But the right to demonstrate and the right to speak freely have been rescinded by edict decrees. The business sector frustration with the central bank and its monetary policy has reached a critical level, enough for numerous groups to solicit the White House and Congress, but to no avail. There is wide recognition of crime and impunity at the highest levels of national leadership. The most vulnerable points in my estimation are gasoline stations and grocery supermarkets. These are the locations of violence to erupt out of public need and desperation. The wild card is a rash of cancer from Fukishima radiation that spreads across entire northern states, but with zero reporting by the news networks. The FEMA Camps should begin to fill very soon, as the economy disintegrates further and disorder grows worse. The level of public anger is rising fast.

THE FACE OF WHAT SYSTEMIC FAILURE LOOKS LIKE IS SLOWING BECOMING APPARENT. THE PICTURE SLOWLY BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

The vast insolvency permeates the entire US nation, well described and even forecasted within the Hat Trick Letter. Banks no longer function as credit suppliers, nor as company incubators. Households are largely wiped out of home equity, most life savings stuck in the stock market and bond market. The USGovt is indescribably bankrupt, that fact more evident to the masses with each passing year. The endless war has ransacked the nation, the decades of war having causing at least half of the entire $17 trillion in accumulated debt. Yet the military budget remains as sacred as the wars. Factories have in the main been shut down or dispatched to Asia where labor is cheaper and unions are less demanding. The central bank policy is to offer money at zero cost for the connected tribes and to purchase unlimited bonds to keep the system running. However, the system is failing.

The face of failure will be many sided. There will be supply line disruptions in food and commodities from the vast Mississippi River artery. There will be storms and earthquakes, which add to significant disruption and economic damage, whose origins are suspicious. There will be rising cost of living for the entire worker class, with angry feedback in form of strikes. This is the fuse to light the powder keg in my view. The official US security stance against terror threats contributes to isolation on a global level. There will be USDollar currency caught in isolation, not widely accepted by foreign suppliers, forcing extreme economic duress. The isolation grows each month, hastened ironically by the Iran sanctions. There already is broken USGovt apparatus on debt management, with a possible failure to raise debt limit soon. The forced across the board USGovt budget cuts will push the system into a grand stumble. The effect on the USEconomy will be profound. The recession has been a constant at minus 4% to minus 6% annually since 2008 in the world of reality with proper accounting.

Expect deep anger and resentment among the population for political class, not only the banker class. The awareness of banker control of the USGovt is the newest element in popular movements laden with demonstrations. But the right to demonstrate and the right to speak freely have been rescinded by edict decrees. The business sector frustration with the central bank and its monetary policy has reached a critical level, enough for numerous groups to solicit the White House and Congress, but to no avail. There is wide recognition of crime and impunity at the highest levels of national leadership. The most vulnerable points in my estimation are gasoline stations and grocery supermarkets. These are the locations of violence to erupt out of public need and desperation. The wild card is a rash of cancer from Fukishima radiation that spreads across entire northern states, but with zero reporting by the news networks. The FEMA Camps should begin to fill very soon, as the economy disintegrates further and disorder grows worse. The level of public anger is rising fast.

A SYSTEMIC BREAKDOWN IS COMING. NEITHER CENTRAL BANKS NOR LEADING GOVERNMENTS CAN PREVENT IT. NO ACTIONS TO DATE CONSTITUTE A REMEDY. NO SOLUTIONS ARE BEING ATTEMPTED, ONLY POWER PRESERVATION BY THE BIG BANKS, STILL NOT LIQUIDATED ALTHOUGH HOLLOW GIANT STRUCTURES. THE SYSTEM IS STUCK UNTIL COLLAPSE.

When USFed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced in the second December week that the official interest rate would remain near 0% forever and a day, and that bond purchases with toxic new money would continue without limit, he showed the face of a failed institution, and a failed central bank franchise system. Witness a failed state, since the bankers wrested control at the staged 911 quickening. Bernanke even made vague comments to disavow blatantly wrong forecasts, since his miserable track record reads the exact opposite of the Jackass. He looks tired, frustrated, out of ideas, annoyed by the demonstrated proof of his PhD thesis falsity. Recall this man loudly urged that the subprime mortgage crisis was contained in 2007, when the Jackass rebutted that the bond crisis was absolute (sure to reach all bonds). Perhaps he should take a long rest at Jackson Hole. He must realize the job was offered to him as a bagman, to preside over the systemic failure and monetary system collapse. Heightened liquidity is no solution to a dreadfully insolvent system, a basic tenet that escapes him and most of his incompetent band of high priests.

Bernanke (Magoo Jar) frustrated

Those at the Syndicate helm cannot hike interest rates, or else collapse the system. They cannot stop bond purchases, or else collapse the system. They cannot cut off big bank bond redemptions, or else collapse the system. They cannot stop filling the Fannie Mae and AIG black holes, or else collapse the system. They cannot end the Dollar Swap Facility for foreign usage, or else collapse the system. However, the system will collapse anyway, from its own sheer weight and the eroding pillars they constructed. Expect broad seizures in numerous chambers, from the bond market to the currency market to the big banks to trade settlement to oil shipments to supply chains. My best source, a brilliant man with keen insight and contacts on every continent, commented to my broad collapse unavoidability comment. He said, "To be sure, the system in its entirety will collapse and then it is over, once and for all. But the Gold market will survive in an un-manipulated fashion. Gold will serve as the backbone of the new commodity backed money with all other commodities grouped and layered around it. Investments in Gold will not just survive the collapse, they will thrive."

Carry on with the self-protection in precious metals, with a deferral of all paper based securities destined to be flushed. A great evaporation of paper wealth is in progress. A bright colleague connected to the Chicago pits added a great comment. He said, "The real indication of what is coming is that the announcement of a half $trillion of unsterilized money creation had no impact last week, after $2 trillion of past bond purchases also had no impact." No solutions lie in their empty bag of tools.

Subscribe to Jim Willie's Hat Trick Letter for the full article.

Byzantium
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:42am

@Dr G

a rebound to what, is your question.

I can't say, but I believe that when we look at a daily chart after the event, we won't be looking at a saucer, but something more akin to a V, and possibly a very deep, skinny V.

And to be blunt, I don't think even JPM know yet what price they want; it is my absolute view that their main priority is to kill sentiment away from physical purchases. If a shocking price decline like we are seeing doesn't work, then they will race it up, then contrive once again, the technical expectation of a crash to deter physical purchases. For a crash you need to start from a height! If price is too low, then physical buyers will pour in.

balz
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:42am

Counting

Got X oz. yesterday.

Got X oz. today.

What has changed?

If you play with paper, you die with paper.

PMs are an insurance.

Whatever the cartel's gimmicks, in the end we know they will lose.

Nuff said.

Dr G
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:42am

@tyberious, I'm not saying he

@tyberious, I'm not saying he isn't honest. I'm the biggest believer in gold and silver I know. I'm saying he isn't magic and can't predict the future.

eyeswideopen
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:43am

Look out your window...

and picture the next 24 months. Many of the folks we admire and follow all point to this timeframe.

The racketeers currently have complete control of the news flow, the markets, and most minds, and are quietly selling their crap in order to secure real assets. The two percent of us who understand what is happening matter not to them. They don't need to contol us. They control the 98%.....their jobs, investments & savings, purchasing decisions, and on.

Perceived (and that's all that matters) economic (deadcat) bounce folks. Be patient and manage you time wisely.

JPM Bullion Bank, large warehouse purchases, AG and Copper ETF's, stacking both metals ( ETF/ Blackrock).

I wonder if they stack 90% and nickles????

Rampant and accelerating criminality in the light of day will not cease any time soon. All we can do is move away from the blast.

Every member should watch the Kyle Bass presentation at least twice. Different circumstances, but same core problems.

DPH has posted Meltup from NIA (Inflation.us) Regardless of your opionion of that organization, the video is time well spent. Jim Willie is not nuts, nor are the dozens of others who continue to warn. Racketeers will do everything to ensure these folks do not gain credibility amongst the masses. Timing may suck, but we all know the message is real.

Peace be with you Brothers and Sisters.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/8180304/JP-Mor...

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/single-trader-jp-morgan-holds-90-lme-c... (archive 2010)

silver66
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:44am

There are 2 types of people in the world

Those that are dog lovers and everyone else :-)

From Jim Sinclair's site

Video unavailable
harlan07
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:45am

what bothers me is

I understand we have manipulation in the metals that is inexplicable in the face of the fundamentals. But the major raids would often come during times that a catalyst was denied (spin from Bernake about no more QE, good BLSBS numbers etc.

But now we are getting slammed after QE 3/4, as there is coordinated money printing, as we are near the edge of a fiscal cliff, as the dollar is TANKING. Aren't these all the things that we have been waiting for to move us up to the next level?

Sure they've always manipulated the metals, but if these catalyst don't bring about a move up, i am starting to think their ability to manipulate this thing is so great (right now atleast) that maybe we won't see new highs until the whole system breaks? And I know that is a good thing when it comes to giving us more time to accumulate more metal, but I just wonder how far their power to hold prices down goes in all this? Could this go on for another couple of decades? Coudl they smash us down and keep it down like they did in the 80's and 90's?

I'm not loosing belief in holding metals or anything, I just question my whole understanding of why the metals have gone up in the past 10 years. I mean we are at risk of having the first year with a negative return on the metals since this market started. WTH???

Beastly Stack
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:46am

Getting Close

Can You Say BOTTOM?

I got filled @1637

I say we hold that 1625-30 line in Gold

binzer
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:47am

@1969

Oooooh..you cheeky little rascal.

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4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
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Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

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