Getting Out of Hand

204
Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 10:09am

Well, what are ya gonna do? I suppose you can be angry with me and everyone else because I certainly don't know of anyone who saw this coming. But the thing has taken on a life of its own now and there's really nothing anyone can do about it.

Would it be worth the time to sit here and bang out all of the reasons again why you own precious metal? Do I need to discuss the fundamentals again and all of the attendant rationale for doing what we do? Nah. Probably not. You've heard it so many times now I'm sure you could repeat everything in your sleep.

I could probably tell you about the short-term technicals and how oversold they are. Just a couple of days ago I mentioned that major selloffs typically don't begin from the oversold levels we were at then. And now look at things!

Maybe I should even waste a few moments going over the physical demand in London and how this will, inevitably, turn paper price around, lead to a stabilization and then a rebound. I could do that but why? You already know that.

In the end, this is nothing new. We saw this in May of 2011. We saw it in September of 2011 and again in December of last year. We saw it in February of this year, too. The metals rally. The Cartels sell all the way up by creating unlimited amounts of unbacked, paper shorts. Eventually, the rally runs out of steam. Some profit-taking ensues. The Cartels give things a shove and down she goes. Soon, the momo-chasing HFTs take over and really drive price down. Into this selling, The Cartels cover nearly all of the shorts they created on the way up until, presto/chango, we are right back to where we started.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Only two things can possibly break this cycle:

  1. The toothless, hapless and corrupt commissioners of the CFTC will, one day, have to act upon the undeniable evidence before them. (Don't hold your breath.)
  2. Physical depletion continues until the market simply breaks. (And this is where we come in.)

Your job today is to relax. Yes, this manufactured event will likely continue but it will also end in the same way the other manufactured corrections have ended. Soon, there will be a very sharp, snap-back rally. It will emerge suddenly and catch traders by surprise. That rally will run out of steam and the shorts will attempt to re-assert themselves. Price will dive again but, ultimately, fail to make significant new lows. From there, a double or reverse H&S bottom will form and price will begin to recover.

In the meantime, head down to your local coin shop and add to your stack today (if they'll actually sell to you at these discounted prices). The only way we can be assured of victory is by taking action ourselves. The fraud that is the CFTC cannot be counted on to help us. Only we can help us.

Keep the faith. Persevere. Be strong and BTFD (again).

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

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benque
Dec 20, 2012 - 1:00pm

Basil...you are such a wit!

I'll bet you are the most popular clown at the kiddie parties.

Business a little slow? Cheer up, maybe you can get some dep't. store elf work.

Mudsharkbytes
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:56pm

@Basil

I thought I made the point in my post, but just to clarify, no, if I make out like a bandit, I take the credit for being smart enough to recognize good advice when I see it.

This is far from only place on the internet where one can find advice on investing in PM's. I spent many years debating whether or not I wanted to take the plunge, so to speak, and when I finally did, I did it fully realizing the risks.

I was into PM stacking for several years before I even discovered TF at his Watchtower blog. Yes, his advice confirmed my beliefs, that is true, but I have not made any purchases or sales on the basis of his, or anybody else's say-so. I've done what I've done as a result of researching many sources and weighing credibility.

So, no - if I make out like a bandit, I will give myself the credit for being smart enough to read the tea leaves correctly, just like if I lose it all I will blame myself for my own stupidity.

This is not to say I don't appreciate the work others do in voicing their opinions, I do. I could not make an informed decision without them. But that's all they are, opinions. Blaming others or letting others take credit for your bad or good fortune is passing the buck.

Byzantium
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:50pm

Crude....

is at 90 as I type.

Byzantium
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:47pm

@ Basil

your note to Mudsharkbytes is missing the dimension of 'community.'

Stackers are compadres on a journey. We keep each others spirits up, & share info, on a journey we had decided to make ourselves. When the team wins, the team celebrates. When we lose, back to the 'keeping each others spirits up'.

No elaborate logic is going to ruin group camaraderie, or lead to recriminations.

vonburpenstein
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:43pm

Two Thoughts...Maybe more....

....First of all, How the hell is 'Soybean Meal' up nearly 40% when its brother, 'Soybean Oil' is down nearly 10% on the year???

Secondly, and I've been thinking about this for a while now...I knew zero about pm until August 2010. My friend told me I should buy and for whatever reason I did. Shortly thereafter, I found the 'Along the Watchtower' blog and have been here ever since. I've got a fairly decent stack of real value and feel pretty good about that. Yep, I've considered selling it all a time or two to pay off everything - then I'd be able to re-stack at a high rate of speed. The only problem is that I can't count on getting a good price or availability with any surety - so I hang on, plus I am fortunately in a good financial position to pay my debt aggressively at this point. With this in mind I have been wondering why so many folks on this site are so pissed. Now, if they are a troll then fuck em. However, if they are people that put most or all of their money into metals based on the prognostications we've seen the last year and a half, and now find themselves in a pinch financially, I can understand the pissedoffness which abounds. The deal is, if you are in a tight financially and all your jack is in the form of metals and now you need more jack to pay regular bills and you have to sell some or all of your stack - then I'd be pissed too. These folks probably shoulda been a bit more cautious going in to this deal.

I think most ALL of us can agree that longer term (whatever that means), we will all be vindicated. How can all the nonsense going on NOT end with a great gain financially as it relates to pms? Answer...it can't. Short term, who really knows (that we can talk to) what the real deal is? Answer...Nobody! During this last 2.5 years I learned that I can't throw everything I have at this deal, I have to be cautious and although things seem a certain way, I can't count on my feelings about how it will unfold - so I won't put myself in a pinch if I can help it. Should you find yourself in a tight financial situation, sell it, get straight with your money then come on back...you'll be ok AND feel better next time you start buying. This IS a great time to buy based on recent history, but only if you can afford to lose in the short term. And one more thing, you cannot be pissed at Turd or any other pm giant...you should only be pissed at yourself for putting yourself into the situation you are in....wah wah wah, "you're not in my shoes", "easy for you to say", whatever....do what you gotta do, sell what you gotta sell, get your head on straight and quitcherbitchin! This is kinda like a casino right now. Do you get pissed at the bookies when you lose a bet? do you get pissed at the casino when you double down on an 11 and get a 3? You shouldn't...they didn't make you put that money down...CMON MAN!

Love Yall,

Vonburp

murphy
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:39pm

Ferd/ Gorilla

@ Ferd, I know deep down you miss me more than ever. The depth of your giving knows no bounds. Btw, the bank told me that they were going to try to redeposit the last commission check from you for the third and final time. If it doesn't clear this time I will add it to the worthless mining stock certificates you no doubt will bequeath to me and I will wall paper my cell in debtors prison with it.

@ G.C. - I think I will join you in that bourbon, hold the coffee. It makes me jittery.

@ silver price

Toto - Hold the line (lyrics)
BasilMudsharkbytes
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:35pm

@Mudsharkbytes

Your attitude is admirable, but is it consistent ?

I ask this because you are willing to take responsibility for your own decisions, so if you happen to lose on PM's (or anything else) you will only blame yourself , and I congratulate you for that.

However, I would bet my stack that if you were to make a load (and maybe you have at various times in your past) then you would be all too ready to thank your sources, be it Turd or anyone else. However, this is INCONSISTENT because , as you have said yourself, you take responsibility for your own decisions, so if you win it's again only because of your own actions.

It may sound like I'm splitting hairs here (is that just a UK expression ?!) but the important point here is that with your current mindset, it's only possible to give your sources compliments, because you blame yourself if you lose , and congratulate THEM if you win !

sideshow03harlan07
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:31pm

Re: What Bothers Me...

I am a bit with Harlan here....I often wonder this myself....

I understand we have manipulation in the metals that is inexplicable in the face of the fundamentals. But the major raids would often come during times that a catalyst was denied (spin from Bernake about no more QE, good BLSBS numbers etc.

But now we are getting slammed after QE 3/4, as there is coordinated money printing, as we are near the edge of a fiscal cliff, as the dollar is TANKING. Aren't these all the things that we have been waiting for to move us up to the next level?

Sure they've always manipulated the metals, but if these catalyst don't bring about a move up, i am starting to think their ability to manipulate this thing is so great (right now at least) that maybe we won't see new highs until the whole system breaks? And I know that is a good thing when it comes to giving us more time to accumulate more metal, but I just wonder how far their power to hold prices down goes in all this?

What is the answer? Exactly what he says is what is startling me....this is what we were waiting all of 2012 for (QE4, US Dollar moving lower, etc.) and yet we are getting smashed. These are the "headlines" that we were waiting for, yet here we are. If these past few weeks are the catalysts to move up, what can be when this is all old news? What stops them for doing this forever if they can now even after/during all these headlines we wanted.

These are questions I have never read a good answer to.....anyone??

Road_Scholar
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:30pm

Inside a flying monkey's head

"Press 'sell' at market open 1,000,000 times. Check. Repeat at Globex open. Now, I think I'll go get a banana and take a nap"...

Rui
Dec 20, 2012 - 12:30pm

BRICS have to be in on this

(I guess this was what's going on over on the hotline b/t White House and Beijing prior to this raid)

Barack Obama: Hello, Jintao. I need to talk you about sth.

Jintao Hu: Hi there.

BO: Dude, if you keep buying gold that hard you'd turn your own 3T$ reserve into trash.

JH: So you are suggesting I should sit there letting Ben trash it instead. Yeah right.

BO: Look we need to print a little to pay off the debt.

JH: You keep printing, I keep stacking.

BO: Alright, alright, let's do a deal. How about you hold off a bit while we drive it down to low 1600s around Christmas. That way our green paper gets some breathing room and you get a lower price.

JH: You expect me to trust you? Last time when we took delivery from you guys we received tungsten bars.

BO: (F***, he figured it out) What do you mean "tungsten"? Anyway, how about we further sweeten the deal by driving silver below 30 as well. Is that good enough? Would you loosen up a little?

JH: OK. That's more like it.

BO: Now you go tell Brazil, Russia and India to ease off as well, and we'll drive it down so that you can buy on discount.

JH: I'll to talk to them but just remember this: If we receive one more tungsten bar, this deal will be off the table. You got that?

BO: (Son of a b****) Come on, don't listen to the crazy Zerohedge. The physical gold will be there. I'll see to it.

JH: You'd better.

BO: OK. Talk to you later (screw you).

JH: Bye (you damn crook).

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