Getting Out of Hand

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 10:09am

Well, what are ya gonna do? I suppose you can be angry with me and everyone else because I certainly don't know of anyone who saw this coming. But the thing has taken on a life of its own now and there's really nothing anyone can do about it.

Would it be worth the time to sit here and bang out all of the reasons again why you own precious metal? Do I need to discuss the fundamentals again and all of the attendant rationale for doing what we do? Nah. Probably not. You've heard it so many times now I'm sure you could repeat everything in your sleep.

I could probably tell you about the short-term technicals and how oversold they are. Just a couple of days ago I mentioned that major selloffs typically don't begin from the oversold levels we were at then. And now look at things!

Maybe I should even waste a few moments going over the physical demand in London and how this will, inevitably, turn paper price around, lead to a stabilization and then a rebound. I could do that but why? You already know that.

In the end, this is nothing new. We saw this in May of 2011. We saw it in September of 2011 and again in December of last year. We saw it in February of this year, too. The metals rally. The Cartels sell all the way up by creating unlimited amounts of unbacked, paper shorts. Eventually, the rally runs out of steam. Some profit-taking ensues. The Cartels give things a shove and down she goes. Soon, the momo-chasing HFTs take over and really drive price down. Into this selling, The Cartels cover nearly all of the shorts they created on the way up until, presto/chango, we are right back to where we started.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Only two things can possibly break this cycle:

  1. The toothless, hapless and corrupt commissioners of the CFTC will, one day, have to act upon the undeniable evidence before them. (Don't hold your breath.)
  2. Physical depletion continues until the market simply breaks. (And this is where we come in.)

Your job today is to relax. Yes, this manufactured event will likely continue but it will also end in the same way the other manufactured corrections have ended. Soon, there will be a very sharp, snap-back rally. It will emerge suddenly and catch traders by surprise. That rally will run out of steam and the shorts will attempt to re-assert themselves. Price will dive again but, ultimately, fail to make significant new lows. From there, a double or reverse H&S bottom will form and price will begin to recover.

In the meantime, head down to your local coin shop and add to your stack today (if they'll actually sell to you at these discounted prices). The only way we can be assured of victory is by taking action ourselves. The fraud that is the CFTC cannot be counted on to help us. Only we can help us.

Keep the faith. Persevere. Be strong and BTFD (again).


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 20, 2012 - 10:56am

@ MR

My GUESS would be Silver is no higher than $35 this time next year.

Yes yes yes...we all know the fundamentals have never been better, if only markets traded on those huh.

Just because you are willing something to happen, doesn't make it happen.

PM bugs have been continuously fed a diet of uber-bullish info for such a long period that they have become totally convinced they know how it all eventually plays out..when NOBODY actually does.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:58am

"the wife is going to make me

"the wife is going to make me sleep on the couch.

probably until we're back up over water."

Kind of disturbing, but I've read way worse than that in the comment section in May 2011. Lives were destroyed back then.

Don't get suckered in. Do your own research, believe noone, and if you start investing, start out little by little, go step by step. Chances are you're not going to get rich, because everywhere where there's money to be had you're not the only one who is there to get it, and chances are you'll find others a lot smarter and more dedicated at trying get it than you are.

If you think you're smart, try yourself at it, start out small, and give yourself time to prove yourself at it. Everyone can make one lucky trade, that doesn't mean you're a trading god. If after some time you find you're not good at it, you haven't lost much and can quit with good conscience. If you're one of the very few who can consistently make money trading, good for you, way to go.

Mr. Fix ¤
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:59am

@ DrkPurpleHaze

When you say “don't be too hard on yourself”, you reminded me of how many other people have informed me that it is my most obvious “character defect”.

It is simply my nature, I do my best to deal with it.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:59am


They are logical it is the market that is irrational.

Dr G
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:03am

@DPH, that poured bar looks

@DPH, that poured bar looks awesome. I also like Heraeus. Those are the bars I mailed to Katie Rose. Heraeus also makes medical equipment, so I have a fondness for them :)

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:04am

Must say - getting a bit

Must say - getting a bit bored of buying the dip.

Patience never been my strong point but just want the end of this farce to hurry up and arrive. If it's coming, then let's get on with it TPTB and stop boring me to death...

Dr G
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:04am

(No subject)

KWN: They are logical it is the market that is irrational.

Them believing the market is logical makes them irrational. Don't make excuses for them.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:05am

Jim Sinclair Says...

The Great Train Robbery in Gold and Silver

We were discussing gold over dinner. It sure looks like the elitists are about to attempt the great train robbery in gold.

All the rumors are crap. This is the biggest manipulative play in gold ever. The only good part is as soon as the criminals have their positions filled, we are off to $3500 and above.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:06am


...can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." JM Keynes

Which is the ethos of stacking, or at least long term investing, in a nutshell.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:10am

@ Mr. Fix

I wonder what the silver price will be "set" too when only us stackers have silver to sale.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:11am

At Least

At least our favorite faux precious metal is holding steady

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:12am

Mr. Fix

I wouldn't regard it as a defect.

What I see from you is someone who is just sounding out the uncertainty from within yourself in a somewhat uncertain time period in the world just trying to make sense of some very nonsensical market/societal times.

Keep sounding it out. At some point (if you haven't already done so) you'll discover down the road where your at as far as the 5 stages of your own personal awakening. You (like myself) are in an evolutionary process regarding thought and the events we're all watching unfold are shaping our thoughts and helping ourselves out in the process.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:13am


I starting buying silver back in 2002 at $4.52. Even though I have gains of 3-4 fold on average, this sort of day(s) still bugs the living hell out of me.

Normally, a true market selloff of the DOW and commodities is shown with a decline in Rhodium. You will notice that Rhodium hasn't traded a bit, and the Dow is still positive.


Thank god for the fundamentals... a guide that always wins out in the end.

Beastly Stack
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:14am

I'm Buying

Gold @1637 limit with a stop @ 1622

Glad I bailed yesterday!The market keeps a giving and I will keep taking my shots.

Be patient everyone.

I never trade these metals from the short side!

Fat Willie
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:14am


You're lucky, you get to sleep in the house. My wife told me to go sleep in the car!!

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:14am

What if...

What if they take silver down to the $26 or $27 range and keep it there for a long time? What's to stop them from doing it? It seems that they've been able to defy the laws of economics. Heck, they could probably find a way to defy gravity if they wanted to.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:15am

@ Binzer

Fair enough in your prediction .. I certainly can not argue with your thoughts.

I do believe LONG TERM silver fundamentals are intact with the spikes and troughs in between. Time will certainly judge that with my grandkids either cursing me for a bad investment or blessing me with regards to their improved lifestyle.

Please keep posting ... I, along with others need a thump on head every once in a while.


Dec 20, 2012 - 11:16am

Since the 27th and 28th are the only real trading days left

will today and tomorrow be the days for the major downward move, with only enough volume after Christmas to cap the prices at tomorrow's level?. I still think they want $1598 for a yearly close (down for the year).

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:16am

My wife told me....

to buy more. She just loves a sale!

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:16am

Just Bought Timberline TBR

Share price almost cut in half over 1 hour...

Speaking about opportunities!

Dr G
Dec 20, 2012 - 11:19am

(No subject)

All the rumors are crap. This is the biggest manipulative play in gold ever. The only good part is as soon as the criminals have their positions filled, we are off to $3500 and above.

Funny stuff. Mr. Sinclair has no better clue as to how this will end than you or I do.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:20am


Please just keep the price crushed until after Xmas, when I'll have the cash to stack more!

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:20am


"Your job today is to relax"

Sorry Turd i have to vehemently disagree with you on this point. As usual when these things happen. Every fundamental comes flooding back in my brain about Silver. And relaxing is the last thing I can do.

I have no less than 4 Local Coin Shops within 5 miles of my house that need to be visited on days like this

Buy on the way up, Buy on the way down and every dip in between Its all Good.

A day to celebrate, For Me And Mine

Merry Christmas to all of those in Turdville


Dec 20, 2012 - 11:21am


...can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." JM Keynes

Great quote!

Seriously what are the options for savers:

1) Equities

2) GB securities

3) CD's, bank deposits

4) Physcial PM's

5) Others?

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:22am

@ turd next support line

Since we blew through 1675 - what is the next line of stout support?

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:23am

@ MR

Most here know far more than I will ever know. I just look more at the bare facts and the psychological side of investing.

I am basically seen as a troll because I am willing to question what I hear and read from the huge amount of perma-bull pushers that have sprung up in the last few years.

Although I have no doubts many here are real preppers, elsewhere many have bought silver in particular based on what has been put out in the metals blog world, they are speculators hoping to get rich in fiat before the perceived financial Armageddon hits.

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:25am

@ Mr Fix

I love your passion for the topic, and don't doubt your integrity at all, but I respectfully disagree.

The USA & Europe have been living in a bubble for living memory; the greater world has lived with disorder or chaos by and large, and I think that us westerners are too quick to assume it is game over as soon as trouble lands (with the exception of whoever said 'I love the smell of napalm in the morning.')

In the first world war, soldiers played cards in the trenches and even had naps while bombs were falling all around. Systemic collapse could come at any time, but we might have years yet, and we probably do.

I think the first calamity is going to be Japanese bonds, and then we will see does it trigger a global collapse, or will it be a slow grind.

We prepare for the worst, and keep smiling until then. But if these are indeed the end days of the good times, then we all ought appreciate & enjoy the remainder of normalcy, yes?

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:25am

Maybe near $1225 or so

(Just joking. Maybe I can print off a chart in a few minutes.)

Dec 20, 2012 - 11:27am


hi anyone using Andy's services?

really considering to join the army, however it seems that Andy's haven't get in the market since last week orrr its only the website haven't been updated...

anywayy... today would be a "dooms day" for metals.. lets see what would happen to us tomorrow


Dec 20, 2012 - 11:27am

I watched a video once....

A guy was preaching on about how he had found out about a secret new world currency based on commodities (i think) which was going to make us all free and make the current banking (elite) system obsolete. It was at least a year ago and on a fringe, slightly wacky web site. I searched for it on YT with no luck. If I remember right the guy was in his mid 30's and was like sitting in a big chair / sofa? Can anyone help?


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