Getting Out of Hand

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 10:09am

Well, what are ya gonna do? I suppose you can be angry with me and everyone else because I certainly don't know of anyone who saw this coming. But the thing has taken on a life of its own now and there's really nothing anyone can do about it.

Would it be worth the time to sit here and bang out all of the reasons again why you own precious metal? Do I need to discuss the fundamentals again and all of the attendant rationale for doing what we do? Nah. Probably not. You've heard it so many times now I'm sure you could repeat everything in your sleep.

I could probably tell you about the short-term technicals and how oversold they are. Just a couple of days ago I mentioned that major selloffs typically don't begin from the oversold levels we were at then. And now look at things!

Maybe I should even waste a few moments going over the physical demand in London and how this will, inevitably, turn paper price around, lead to a stabilization and then a rebound. I could do that but why? You already know that.

In the end, this is nothing new. We saw this in May of 2011. We saw it in September of 2011 and again in December of last year. We saw it in February of this year, too. The metals rally. The Cartels sell all the way up by creating unlimited amounts of unbacked, paper shorts. Eventually, the rally runs out of steam. Some profit-taking ensues. The Cartels give things a shove and down she goes. Soon, the momo-chasing HFTs take over and really drive price down. Into this selling, The Cartels cover nearly all of the shorts they created on the way up until, presto/chango, we are right back to where we started.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Only two things can possibly break this cycle:

  1. The toothless, hapless and corrupt commissioners of the CFTC will, one day, have to act upon the undeniable evidence before them. (Don't hold your breath.)
  2. Physical depletion continues until the market simply breaks. (And this is where we come in.)

Your job today is to relax. Yes, this manufactured event will likely continue but it will also end in the same way the other manufactured corrections have ended. Soon, there will be a very sharp, snap-back rally. It will emerge suddenly and catch traders by surprise. That rally will run out of steam and the shorts will attempt to re-assert themselves. Price will dive again but, ultimately, fail to make significant new lows. From there, a double or reverse H&S bottom will form and price will begin to recover.

In the meantime, head down to your local coin shop and add to your stack today (if they'll actually sell to you at these discounted prices). The only way we can be assured of victory is by taking action ourselves. The fraud that is the CFTC cannot be counted on to help us. Only we can help us.

Keep the faith. Persevere. Be strong and BTFD (again).


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 22, 2012 - 5:02pm


Turd said: "Well, what are ya gonna do? I suppose you can be angry with me and everyone else because I certainly don't know of anyone who saw this coming..."

Note the date and time of the post below. It was so damn obvious this was coming...


I'll take the other side of Turd's prediction...

Submitted by SilverLeaf on December 5, 2012 - 12:39am. Hat Tip! 22

...that "we'll end 2012 at the high end of the yearly range". Don't think it's going to happen...Instead, I think they'll try to jam the price down in the next few weeks in an attempt to:

1. Paint as low a yearly performance for gold and silver as they possibly can. As Jim Rogers said earlier this year, gold's gone up every year for the last 10 years and has killed returns on all other asset classes. It would be normal to have a year where it's flat or ends with a loss. The bastard manipulators would love nothing more than to have 2012 returns come in as low as possible to discourage investors as we go into 2013, and to minimize the perception that gold is a *dependable, can't lose investment*.

2. Take advantage of the "fiscal cliff" farce until an agreement is reached at the last minute (as we all know it will). If the compromise results in more monetary debasement (as we all know it will), the manipulators will want gold and silver to react from the low end of the 2012 range, not the high end. To achieve that, they have to jam the price down before the miraculous compromise is reached at the end of December.

3. Force more small investors to pile on with year end tax loss selling. The timing's ripe to try to force another minor waterfall decline, by taking advantage of the 3 week window investors have left for tax loss selling. Create downside volatility, and small investors who want/need to take tax losses will pile on and force prices even lower.


And from a post I made on Dec 13:

"...I suppose anything could happen in the next two weeks, but logic says that it's unlikely that the manipulators will let a crisis like the fiscal cliff go to waste. Add in the historically low trading volumes over the holidays, and it seems like a no-brainer that the pressure is likely down for at least another couple of weeks.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see gold back to $1650ish and Silver down to about $30 going into year end. I doubt they go much lower than that given the fundamentals and the cartels already extended short positions. If and when the metals hit those levels, I'm adding to my physical stack and getting setup for a range trade. I do suspect that metals will catch a bid in Q1 and Q2 of 2013, once all of the things I listed below are behind us, the consequences of the fiscal cliff resolution and QE4 become clearer..."

El Gordo
Dec 21, 2012 - 7:52am

"the wife is going to make me

Confucius say woman who put husband in dog house usually find him in cat house.

Dec 20, 2012 - 8:09pm

Patience & Perspective

When the PM gyrations start to get under my skin I "back up" my time perspective. Most of my stack is from several years ago - it has been my savings account. Rather than saving in fiat I save in PM. When I need to withdraw from my savings account I consider what the cost was when I stacked it and how well it has done - the PM stack has done a lot better than the fiat stack, so I'm mostly content. Sure, I think I'd like quicker justice for the manipulators, but who knows what that world will look like. I'll continue to be patient and withdraw on my time of choosing.

Dec 20, 2012 - 5:14pm

A Reasonable Man

A reasonable and just man does not adapt to or condone lawlessness.


S Roche
Dec 20, 2012 - 5:02pm


The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. (George Bernard Shaw)

I've only have time to read the first page of comments, Turd that definition might help you out.

In respect of seeing this coming well in advance, rather than as it happens like Coghlan and Maguire (who I presume made money on this), any serious traders should consider Bell Curve Trading who picked it all perfectly in their Short Term guidance. It even looks to me as if enough Hedge Funds and Banks use the Bell Curve service to make what they expect, happen. They use their version of Market Profile analysis on the Comex price action and volume, so it is an excellent insight into the paper trading world as it tries to find balance. They do get it wrong sometimes, when fundamentals or real news kicks in, but when paper rules their Short Term calls are better than good. Being long or short makes no difference, no fundos at all.

It is $400 per month for metals, but if you trade seriously it is well worth it.

I don't always follow their "predictions", because it goes against my convictions, but it did make me use stops on my recent long positions, which saved two thirds of this week's profit, and it did give me extra confidence piling back in this afternoon.

That is the end of this Public Service Announcement.

Dec 20, 2012 - 3:47pm

Keep averaging down

First time poster and this site has been one of my select must read daily news channel - especially the informative podcasts. As head scratching as these days have become today I wasn't angry (unlike the others).....gave thanks for the opportunity to scale in at better price. 'Tis the season for giving.....but today I will do some 'Taking!!!

Dec 20, 2012 - 2:52pm


new thread

Dec 20, 2012 - 2:51pm

Miners regain a lot

If volume picks up then it's probably the bottom.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Dec 20, 2012 - 2:37pm

post deleted

sorry duplicate post

Jason Foster
Dec 20, 2012 - 2:29pm

Trolls In Sheep's Clothing

You know who you are. This is turning into an event similar to 2008-09, price keeps falling for all the wrong reasons. Back then, I watched my life savings get whacked by 2/3 in $ denominated terms. I lived. I didn't sell even one ounce. I will survive. I will buy more. I will eat the flesh of the bodies of the trolls and expel the resulting fecal waste onto the steps of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. TPTB will not be able to avoid the collapse this time.

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