Getting Out of Hand

Thu, Dec 20, 2012 - 10:09am

Well, what are ya gonna do? I suppose you can be angry with me and everyone else because I certainly don't know of anyone who saw this coming. But the thing has taken on a life of its own now and there's really nothing anyone can do about it.

Would it be worth the time to sit here and bang out all of the reasons again why you own precious metal? Do I need to discuss the fundamentals again and all of the attendant rationale for doing what we do? Nah. Probably not. You've heard it so many times now I'm sure you could repeat everything in your sleep.

I could probably tell you about the short-term technicals and how oversold they are. Just a couple of days ago I mentioned that major selloffs typically don't begin from the oversold levels we were at then. And now look at things!

Maybe I should even waste a few moments going over the physical demand in London and how this will, inevitably, turn paper price around, lead to a stabilization and then a rebound. I could do that but why? You already know that.

In the end, this is nothing new. We saw this in May of 2011. We saw it in September of 2011 and again in December of last year. We saw it in February of this year, too. The metals rally. The Cartels sell all the way up by creating unlimited amounts of unbacked, paper shorts. Eventually, the rally runs out of steam. Some profit-taking ensues. The Cartels give things a shove and down she goes. Soon, the momo-chasing HFTs take over and really drive price down. Into this selling, The Cartels cover nearly all of the shorts they created on the way up until, presto/chango, we are right back to where we started.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Only two things can possibly break this cycle:

  1. The toothless, hapless and corrupt commissioners of the CFTC will, one day, have to act upon the undeniable evidence before them. (Don't hold your breath.)
  2. Physical depletion continues until the market simply breaks. (And this is where we come in.)

Your job today is to relax. Yes, this manufactured event will likely continue but it will also end in the same way the other manufactured corrections have ended. Soon, there will be a very sharp, snap-back rally. It will emerge suddenly and catch traders by surprise. That rally will run out of steam and the shorts will attempt to re-assert themselves. Price will dive again but, ultimately, fail to make significant new lows. From there, a double or reverse H&S bottom will form and price will begin to recover.

In the meantime, head down to your local coin shop and add to your stack today (if they'll actually sell to you at these discounted prices). The only way we can be assured of victory is by taking action ourselves. The fraud that is the CFTC cannot be counted on to help us. Only we can help us.

Keep the faith. Persevere. Be strong and BTFD (again).


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 20, 2012 - 10:10am



Dec 20, 2012 - 10:11am


Window lick this...........................

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:12am



Dec 20, 2012 - 10:14am


o yeah

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:14am


gold will close higher in 2012 than it did in 2011, gold will close higher in 2013 than it did in 2012

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:16am

Looks like

a coffee and baileys morning. Much as I find this price movement...nauseating... I still believe. Just because liars and cheats have managed to grasp the upper position does not negate any of the reasons I stack and save. The TRUTH will inevitably bite them in the ass. Merry Christmas to all Turdites! Hug your loved ones, prep a bit, and have Baileys with your coffee!

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:17am

How's this for market

How's this for market logic... could be a meme.


Fed enacts additional $40 billion a month indefinitely in exotic monetary policy known as Quantative Easing:

Gold & Silver Tank for 7 consecutive days afterwards.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:21am

First post in a long time. 

First post in a long time. Turd noone is mad at you. I do question your sanity. When metals are up, "we" are winning. When metals are down "buy more".

Anyone who follows you for more than a year should come to the conclusion that either A: You are unreasonable or B: Your motives are different than advertised.

Personally I trust your motives, and find you to be completely unreasonable. You started out strong, but the daily circle jerks over price action in here aren't doing anyone a service.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:22am

@ Teach

Good call Teach - but I'll join you with Kahlua in mine ;)

My LCS guy is only opened on Fris and Sats - but I'll be heading over tomorrow!

Dr G
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:23am

Physical depletion until the

Physical depletion until the market breaks could be years and years away. We may never see it.

For those watching price, one of the toughest things about these year-end Cartel Cramming Sessions is that next year we will look at a move up to $34 as a big move, when in actuality it isn't, it only appears to be because of blatant manipulation.

So somewhere down the road we will get a short-squeeze from $30 to $34. Yaaay.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:25am

Mission Statement of CFTC

Oldie.. but goodie.

department of truth
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:25am

$30.16 and dropping

Will start buying when it hits $27

Beastly Stack
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:26am

BTFD-Feed Turd

Happy Holidays to all.Walk away from the screen and enjoy the holidays with the people you love!

I just shipped out shirts this morning to the West and it will be delivered by Saturday!

This site recieves $5 for each shirt sold.

If you cannot use the link or if there is any confusion,please email me @mconnolly74[at]aol[dot]com and I will help.

Large and XL available to be shipped out today in Royal Blue and Black!

All other sizes in the same 2 colors are available,I will need approx 5 days to have them made.

Thank You and Happy Holidays TURDVILLE

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:29am

From last thread, COT trading

"I guess as Andy proves FRN's can be fleeced from PM trading but man the Cartel makes it difficult. I'm not sure who said it but like 80% of new traders in the Silver pits get wiped out, cant beat those odds."

I actually heard about 95% of all small traders gets wiped out, and that is not exclusive to the silver market. I find those numbers much more believeable. Even here on an investment site/blog, where people actually have a clue what they are talking about, virtually nobody gets it. If you think drawing some lines on a chart can predict the future, sorry, you are not very bright. TA doesn't work, still basically everyone who is trading uses it. What percentage? I'd say 95%.

TA only ever works if many people use it at the same time.. not because TA acurrately predicted something, but because it is a mass phenomenon that itself can move the market. A sort of self fulfilling prophecy on a large scale.

Either way, listen to interview with rich investors. You will find noone of them ever actually uses technical analysis. They make long term bets and stick by them. So if you go by that, stacking and waiting until the stuff skyrockets is the best strategy anyway. I have been making money by trading off the COT report for a couple of years now though, and while I didn't get rich off it, my paper has outperformed my physical by a long shot. And the profits get converted to physical on a regular basis. I can't complain about that.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:29am

Changed my buy price

We are 10 or so days away from the new year. I noted in my previous posts that the decline would gain momentum and that's what's happening. I also said I would sell my car when silver hit 29 even. I'm going to buy half at 29 and half at 27.50. We should be there by tomorrow I hope. When or if we get into the mid to low 20's next week, I will sell everything I own and buy. If we hit the teens by the week after, I'll take out a loan and buy. If it goes to zero, I will have a spare 100 dollars in my pocket to buy unlimited amounts of it!

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:30am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:30am



Video unavailable

Bag Of Gold

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:31am


At this point just have to suck it up and hope it turns around before long.

To be fair a number of people predicted a weak December. Perhaps not this bad though.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:32am

For What Its Worth #3

"I certainly don't know of anyone who saw this coming."

Au contraire mon ami Turd! If you check my previous two comments, on previous threads under the above comment title, you will find what you "don't know".

This is proceeding exactly as per prognostication. Watch for lower price beat downs to come yet. Then - once the bottom falls out of the NYSE and the S&P 500, the gold and silver price moon shot will be on!

I see the NYSE has been sold to ICE. Does this mean it will now be known as NICE? Ho! Ho! Ho!

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:32am

The thing is

If anyone had seen this coming, and said as much on here...they would have been hounded out of town, called all the names under the sun accused of being a troll.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:32am

Where is support?

That's were I'm buying? 28ish?

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:32am


This just happened and I bought it while Ag dipped just under $30

Screw the premium and being penny-wise/pound (1/2 kilo) foolish at this point.

Poured bars are awesome!

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:33am

Lookout Below!!

Quick, Quick - Everybody SELL your Gold and Silver - We're going over the fiscal cliff!

Buncha stoopid nonsense this action since QE3 and QE4. Honestly - at this point - there's nothing left to do but laugh.

AND .. I just about pee'd my pants laughing when I saw the image ScottJ posted above re the CFTC mission! These future markets are hilarious.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:33am

Can you please define "unreasonable" for me?

That's sounds interesting but I'd like to hear your definition.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:34am


It is not helping the Dollar

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:35am

For those of you

with an hour to spend while they continue to make a complete joke of this market watching Kyle Bass' latest presentation should help any short term anxiety. An excellent opportunity to remind yourselves why we do what we do and for me it's like a shot of Narcan ( in this hopium addicted world.

I'm sure many of you have already caught it on ZH but it is worth watching more than once:

Enjoy - it makes moves like that just witnessed much easier to bear


Dec 20, 2012 - 10:36am

I know of

no other industry where people supposedly in the know get it continuously wrong; and people still listen to them and follow their advice...quite extraordinary.

If the likes of Turk, Maloney, Morgan et al told me that night followed day, I would still wanna look outside to check.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:36am
El Gordo
Dec 20, 2012 - 10:37am

Putting it in reverse

I haven't backed the truck up yet, but I did get it to go in reverse. Won't be long until I'm forced to hit the gas and back it up to the loading dock. Santa can take all that other crap back, this year you're getting silver.

Dec 20, 2012 - 10:38am

@Turd: "Unreasonable"

"Unreasonable", as in responding to post-once-a-year antagonists. :)


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