Holiday Week

Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - 10:58am

Though Christmas isn't until next Tuesday, this week seems like Holiday Week in that we will see less and less volume and activity as the week progresses. It will also seem like Holiday Week as each day I will post one of my favorite holiday classics. Here's the first one, you hoser:

Bob and Doug McKenzie - 12 Days of (Canadian) Christmas

And now onto today's post.

Blah, blah, blah, metals down overnight, blah, blah, stocks up, blah, blah, chart lousy, blah, blah, blah, Cartel, blah, blah, evil, blah, blah, blah, manipulate, blah, blah, support, blah, blah, blah, rally, blah, blah, blah, vindication.

OK, now that you're caught up and ready to take on the week, here are two charts for you to review. The basic thesis is this: A couple of months ago, many pundits/analysts were quick to point out the massive, cup-and-handle formations on the longer-term charts. Now, since the "handles" are taking a bit longer to form than the collective attention span permits, it seems this very important technical feature has been forgotten. Well, not here at TFMR. As with anything, patience is required and we must give this stuff time to play out.

A few other things that are driving me bananas:

  • This notion that the metals are selling off in waves and cascades due to "end of year selling and book-squaring". This is complete BS being postulated by an ignorant MSM that is reaching for easy answers. Again, a money manager who is paid to make money for himself and his clients does not sell/dump a position into a thinly-traded market. Never. Ever. The execution is lousy and horribly inefficient. A human being scales out of a position over time, not all at once at 9:00 pm.
  • Many are claiming that, based solely off of last week's blatantly manipulative action, the metals are poised to fall back toward $1600 or even lower. This is BS, too. Note that the charts above include the daily RSIs. Major selloffs and bear markets do not begin from RSIs in the low 40s.
  • There are also those that suggest gold is about to get washed out because the open interest is too high. To this I ask: HUH?? This suggestion is lunacy simply because it only takes a simple review of the data to prove it wrong. The current OI in gold is around 432,000, which is nearly the same level as late August (2 weeks prior to QE∞) and already down about 15% from the recent peak of 493,000 on 11/23/12. In fact, gold is closer to the OI lows of the year (395,000 in late April) than it is to the highs. And, like the RSIs, since when does gold begin a major correction from an OI level at 432,000? Instead, it is highly likely that those who are going to sell have already sold.
  • Silver traders, though, need to be mindful of raids. Even though the physical and "other" fundamentals remain positive, the fact remains that JPM et al have continued to build up a massive naked short position. Instead of covering over the past 10 weeks, the EE has actually added shorts. An extraordinary short squeeze is possible but it needs a trigger. In lieu of the trigger, expect much volatility as we finish the year.
  • Finally, I gave everyone the previous thread to argue about "gun control". I hope the arguers had fun because the party stops here. Why, you ask? Because first of all this is a precious metals forum. Folks from all over the world visit this site to read about precious metals, not gun control arguments. And, second...and this is probably more important...nothing anyone posts here is going to change any minds or make a rat's ass bit of difference. Events happen and politicians react, regardless of your personal beliefs. No amount of name-calling and bickering on this site is going to change/affect anything. So, the gun control debate here on the main thread is officially closed and all derisive/abusive comments posted here will be deleted. If you want to continue discussing this issue, I invite you to visit the new thread I've created in the "Current Events" forum specifically for this purpose.

    And if you haven't yet listened to the podcast posted from back on Friday, I urge you to do so. Of all the recent interviews, this latest one with Alasdair Macleod has received the consistently best reviews.

    Have a great day.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
    Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
    Total votes: 185


    ABQBear · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:00am



    Newbie with the snake on first, possibly.

    mapleleaf · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:00am

    Take Off, Eh?

    2nd Hoser

    sengfarmer · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:07am

    top ten :)

    I guess it pays to stay on your toes. Edging ever closer to the prize.

    Dr G · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:09am

    Turd, I don't think I've said

    Turd, I don't think I've said it yet, so Merry Christmas to you and your family!

    TomMack · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:13am


    maybe i can be president some day

    edit: world famous "thrud"

    SIlverbee · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:19am

    Why does much volitility

    invariably mean to the downside?

    jimbo · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:20am


    Merry Christmas to you Turd and to the whole Turdistan.

    jimbo · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:21am


    Merry Christmas to you Turd and to the whole Turdistan.

    sprite · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:21am


    <And now onto today's post.

    Blah, blah, blah, metals down overnight, blah, blah, stocks up, blah, blah, chart lousy, blah, blah, blah, Cartel, blah, blah, evil, blah, blah, blah, manipulate, blah, blah, support, blah, blah, blah, rally, blah, blah, blah, vindication.

    OK, now that you're caught up and ready to take on the week>

    That really made me laugh Turd. Well said!!

    The very best to you and your family for the coming break. 

    May 2013 bring you, and all Turdites, peace and happiness.

    Be Prepared · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:23am

    A New State of Being...

    We are in the midst of the Fourth Turning.....the level of chaos and disruptions will be ever increasing as all the generational forces find a new state of equilibrium. I know many of you have read about the Fourth Turning, but here is brief synopsis:

    There are many potential threats that could feed a growing sense of public urgency as the Fourth Turning progresses, from financial collapse to a protracted war, from a crisis of weapons proliferation to an environmental crisis, from an energy shortage to new civil wars abroad. The generational cycle cannot explain the role or timing of these individual threats. It cannot account for specific great incidents in history, like Pearl Harbor, or President Kennedy’s assassination, or 9/11. What it can do is explain when Crisis or Awakening events are most likely to happen—and, even more importantly, how society is likely to respond to these events in different eras. It is the response, not the initial event, which defines an era.

    In Anglo-American history, there have been six Fourth Turnings dating back to the fifteenth century (see Historical Turnings). In the modern history of many other societies whose generational currents have run roughly parallel to that of the United States (especially in Europe and Asia), there have been many other Fourth Turnings. By observing the similarities in how these eras unfold, a morphology can be constructed.

    A Crisis era begins with a catalyst, a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood. In America’s last Fourth Turning, the catalyst was the 1929 stock market crash. In the current era, we may ultimately look back on the global market meltdown and historic national election of 2008--ushering in a “Great Recession” and a seemingly endless era of deleveraging--as the initial mood-changer. Several years after the catalyst, society enters a regeneracy, a drawing together of the community in response to a worsening outlook and a growing determination to surmount the challenge. Thus regenerated, a society then propels toward a climax—a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and triumph of the new. The climax can end well, badly, or some combination of both. Either way, it shakes a society to its roots, transforms institutions, redirects social purposes, and marks people (and generations) for life. Eventually, the mood transforms into the exhaustion and relief of resolution, the moment when treaties are signed and celebrations are staged.

    As the new order quickly hardens and people embrace dreams of domestic contentment, the Crisis era ends and society enters the First Turning of the next saeculum. Roughly twenty years, in most cases, will have elapsed since the catalyst. In today’s context, we at LifeCourse anticipate the end of the Fourth Turning to occur sometime in the late 2020s. By then, we expect that a new “Homeland Generation” (born, 2005– ?) will begin to come of age as young adults. We tentatively tag them as belonging to the Artist archetype. They will strike older Americans as well-educated, well-behaved, risk averse, and perhaps also credulous and conformist.

    As America moves into a Fourth Turning, this will be a time of great national trial and upheaval. Yet seeing this on the horizon is not a prophesy of some horrible tragedy. A Fourth Turning also could be a time of triumph. Just as the risk of war is great in a Fourth Turning, so too is the possibility of accomplishing things that in other eras would be impossible—particularly in the areas of government, institutions, and infrastructure. It’s important to remember that Fourth Turnings have occurred many times before in American history. Each has been an era when America felt good about itself as a society and a nation, a time when big problems have been solved, when businesses ultimately emerged prosperous, and when people came together with a new ethic of community and consensus.

    I appreciate that many of the events and actions we see within our government and society as whole are leading us down a path of great change and, unfortunately, we will land in a place that will most likely represent a significant end to much of what we have understood about ourselves being replaced with things that will be prescribed by others for us to follow by dictate.... the end of the experiment.

    old tradesman · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:24am

    work up a smile

    Daniel Powter - You had a bad day.
    FleetFeet · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:24am

    New pattern?

    I noticed last week there were several periods when silver tended to rise while gold was falling. This morning, gold was pushed down again while silver rose almost one percent.

    An hour or so later, silver was pushed down and gold started to rise.

    Could this be a new suppression pattern -- first one, then the other, then back and forth? Is it only coincidence that one metal is up while the other is down, several hours at a time, several trading days in a row?

    beinki · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:24am

    colloidal silver cures kidney infection?

    Being a slow metals week I wanted to pass along a recent success with my colloidal silver...To be completely honest, I would add maybe to the title of this post. About a week ago a very close relative of mine who at this time wants to remain nameless, developed a severe kidney infection. Unfortunately for Her, bladder and kidney infections are rather a common re occurring problem.(underlying medical issue?) Each time she would get the BIG PHARMA antibiotics for the infection and slowly get better. Not overnight but a gradual improvement. And each time after taking the prescribed antibiotics she would inevitable end up with a yeast infection because the prescribed antibiotic kill all bacteria, good and bad wiping out her immune system. More on this in a moment.

    OK so now she has been on the prescribed antibiotics for a day and a half with no improvement, High fever, flu like symptoms etc so my wife goes over to help out and I send along a batch of my colloidal and ionic silver made with the silverlungs generator. I instruct her to take two ounces of both types every hour alternating them from about noon to bedtime and re evaluate in the morning.

    You should know she is a BIG skeptic of my silver so I wasn't holding my breath to see if she would use it, especially since she already purchased expensive pharmacy drugs. But low and behold, the next morning she calls me at work, "What was in that stuff you gave me?" she asked. I went on to explain the difference between my ionic and colloidal silver and why I suggested the dosage I did. Well she felt so much better that she went to work! Now for full disclosure I don't know if it was my silver that did the trick or the prescribed antibiotics or a combination that worked, but since this is as close to in vivo testing I can do I'll take it.

    I will provide updates as needed. Why did she heal so quickly? Will she still have a yeast infection? Will she use only my silver next time? In regards to killing bacteria, 99% of your GOOD gut bacteria is Anaerobic bacteria that do not need oxygen to survive. The Bad bacteria is aerobic, they do need oxygen to live and this is one of the keys to colloidal silvers success. Colloidal silver attacks the enzyme that the bad bacteria use to create oxygen thus suffocating the bad while not harming the good. 
    "PLEASE remember I am not advocating giving up your doctor in fact for any serious 
    ailment You should see a doctor. I just want to pass on alternatives to the traditional way of thinking."  beinki

    my website

    Be Prepared · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:27am

    Keep Your Expectations Low...

    ...although, I don't know how much lower my expectations can go...

    dropout · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:31am

    What Will Be - Will Be

    Right on Turd! Thank you.

    What will be, will be, no matter no amount of bahlather.

    The knowledge to game the system and produce ill gotten profit, exists in abundance. What acts as a counter force is not so much technology, but morality, and traditionally that doesn't tend to have a long shelf life.

    The lesson of history is that what ever can be done, will be done somewhere, sometime, by someone. Until it can't.

    Happy stacking everyone. Stay safe. Celebrate life.

    Silverman · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:31am
    · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:32am

    The Bob & Doug CPI

    Screw the manipulated, government-issued CPI. We'll check this indicator again next year to see how it changes.

    One beer = Happy Hour special at my local watering hole = $3

    Two turtlenecks = $24.95 per at LLBean = $49.90

    Three French Toast = at my local breakfast joint = $4.29 

    Four pounds of back bacon = found online at $14.99/lb = $59.96 (not including shipping)

    Five golden hats = $25 per at North Face = $125

    Six cases of beer = Bud Light at my local liquor store = $14.99 per = $89.94

    Seven pack of cigs = $6.03 is the median U.S. cost = $42.21 (not including all of the confiscatory taxes)

    Eight comic books = $3.99 per = $31.98

    TOTAL = $406.28

    Xeno · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:33am

    Great Line

    This is a great line you came up with TF;

    "Now, since the "handles" are taking a bit longer to form than the collective attention span permits, it seems this very important technical feature has been forgotten."

    Perhaps recent frustration has been because the handles failed, nobody noticed, and were lost in uncharted charts.

    Be Prepared · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:34am
    Edward G · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:35am

    Christmas cheer

    blah blah monkeys gone home blah blah algos' office party blah blah watchtower ever alert and/but in good spirits over hols...

    Enjoy the season Turdites worldwide!

    Turd, thanks for all the laughs these 2 years and your enlightened leadership

    We'll all be game-fit for 2013 that's 4 sure :)

    hammerman · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:35am

    turd da man ...

    you always coming up with the next great call.... sell off or rally... mainly rally... but making da money your game and the turds love ya. turd for head chief chit head... lead on buddy..... SPX 1317 BY 12/26/12........ WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.... WHERE YOU AT TODAY BOBBAY... 

    · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:38am


    Check this chart:

    And read this article:“something-bad-happened-november

    But, of course, the metals are being sold because QE∞ is going to end in May when the unemployment rate dips to 6.5%. What a complete joke! Anyone foolish stupid enough to sell their metal based upon this prevailing and ridiculous analysis deserves to lose their ass.

    hammerman · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:39am

    Jeez you're a doucehbag.

    Jeez you're a douchebag.

    old tradesman · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:41am

    silver up

    early christmas(maybe)

    ballyale · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:49am

    I think we're at an end of the consolidation phase.

    I think whatever the EE got in free cash from QE4 has already been put into naked shorting of the PM's.

    I don't know about Purple Haze's Chinese hypothesis, but there some merit to it. Still, if China is importing as much silver and gold as possible, then at some time they have to cover the paper shorts. Unlike the LBMA, the Chinese have the silver to cover in phyzz.

    They could go long or neutral at any time.

    At any rate, if I were a commercial consumer of silver, I would be buying the phyzz like crazy and stock piling, if cash were available or taking out loans for the purpose of stock piling. JMHO, fwiw.


    Patrancus · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:50am

    Merry Christmas, now pony up

    Merry Christmas, too all those who benefited from the Bush Tax Cuts who were permanently removed from the Gooberments tax roles. The dirty little secret of this so called fecal cliff is that many more will be required to pay their fair share of income taxes, now pony up.

    Anonymous · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:53am

    Removed comment

    Removed comment.

    Mickey · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:57am

    Tax selling

    A) I would rather not sell my favorite holdings because we still have to pay tax leaving less to invest.

    b) I gifted all my coins to grandchildren when gold was 300 thus averting estate taxes.

    C) i forgot what c was

    oh-if you are in low tax bracket and have a ira or 401k and are over 59.5-good time to take that money out and buy some real off the radar assets

    · Dec 17, 2012 - 11:57am
    50Jim · Dec 17, 2012 - 12:06pm

    Question "Buy the Dip"

    I have been fully into silver since 2006. I saw the shortage in 2008 when all the companies selling silver had nothing left. Now the question is where did all this silver come from.

    Every day I look at Harvey and he talks about the silver market being tight. Ok. How come when I go to Apmex, they still have plenty of silver. In 2008 you could not find any 10 oz. bars. No junk silver of any sort. No american eagles.

    It seems like we could buy the dip for infinity, they seem to be producing more than we buy. Even with Eric Sprott buying huge amounts of silver, there is still plenty to sell.

    I have a number of questions I would like answered.

    1. If they can' produce junk silver (pre-1965) anymore. Where do they get the inventory from. LCS don't have it.

    2. Are the percentages correct on what industry is still using. Or is that where the supply for bars and coins is from?

    3. With China and India taking silver off the market as well as Sprott, then why is this not impacting buying physical from companies such as Apmex?

    thanks for your response.

    Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


    Donate  Shop

    Get Your Subscriber Benefits

    Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

    Key Economic Events week of 12/17

    12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
    12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
    12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
    12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
    12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
    12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

    Key Economic Events week of 12/10

    12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
    12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
    12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
    12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
    12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

    Key Economic Events week of 11/26

    11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
    11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
    11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
    11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
    11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
    11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes