Holiday Week

266
Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - 10:58am

Though Christmas isn't until next Tuesday, this week seems like Holiday Week in that we will see less and less volume and activity as the week progresses. It will also seem like Holiday Week as each day I will post one of my favorite holiday classics. Here's the first one, you hoser:

Bob and Doug McKenzie - 12 Days of (Canadian) Christmas

And now onto today's post.

Blah, blah, blah, metals down overnight, blah, blah, stocks up, blah, blah, chart lousy, blah, blah, blah, Cartel, blah, blah, evil, blah, blah, blah, manipulate, blah, blah, support, blah, blah, blah, rally, blah, blah, blah, vindication.

OK, now that you're caught up and ready to take on the week, here are two charts for you to review. The basic thesis is this: A couple of months ago, many pundits/analysts were quick to point out the massive, cup-and-handle formations on the longer-term charts. Now, since the "handles" are taking a bit longer to form than the collective attention span permits, it seems this very important technical feature has been forgotten. Well, not here at TFMR. As with anything, patience is required and we must give this stuff time to play out.

A few other things that are driving me bananas:

  • This notion that the metals are selling off in waves and cascades due to "end of year selling and book-squaring". This is complete BS being postulated by an ignorant MSM that is reaching for easy answers. Again, a money manager who is paid to make money for himself and his clients does not sell/dump a position into a thinly-traded market. Never. Ever. The execution is lousy and horribly inefficient. A human being scales out of a position over time, not all at once at 9:00 pm.
  • Many are claiming that, based solely off of last week's blatantly manipulative action, the metals are poised to fall back toward $1600 or even lower. This is BS, too. Note that the charts above include the daily RSIs. Major selloffs and bear markets do not begin from RSIs in the low 40s.
  • There are also those that suggest gold is about to get washed out because the open interest is too high. To this I ask: HUH?? This suggestion is lunacy simply because it only takes a simple review of the data to prove it wrong. The current OI in gold is around 432,000, which is nearly the same level as late August (2 weeks prior to QE∞) and already down about 15% from the recent peak of 493,000 on 11/23/12. In fact, gold is closer to the OI lows of the year (395,000 in late April) than it is to the highs. And, like the RSIs, since when does gold begin a major correction from an OI level at 432,000? Instead, it is highly likely that those who are going to sell have already sold.
  • Silver traders, though, need to be mindful of raids. Even though the physical and "other" fundamentals remain positive, the fact remains that JPM et al have continued to build up a massive naked short position. Instead of covering over the past 10 weeks, the EE has actually added shorts. An extraordinary short squeeze is possible but it needs a trigger. In lieu of the trigger, expect much volatility as we finish the year.
  • Finally, I gave everyone the previous thread to argue about "gun control". I hope the arguers had fun because the party stops here. Why, you ask? Because first of all this is a precious metals forum. Folks from all over the world visit this site to read about precious metals, not gun control arguments. And, second...and this is probably more important...nothing anyone posts here is going to change any minds or make a rat's ass bit of difference. Events happen and politicians react, regardless of your personal beliefs. No amount of name-calling and bickering on this site is going to change/affect anything. So, the gun control debate here on the main thread is officially closed and all derisive/abusive comments posted here will be deleted. If you want to continue discussing this issue, I invite you to visit the new thread I've created in the "Current Events" forum specifically for this purpose. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4385/gun-control-post-ct-massacre

    And if you haven't yet listened to the podcast posted from back on Friday, I urge you to do so. Of all the recent interviews, this latest one with Alasdair Macleod has received the consistently best reviews.

    Have a great day.

    TF

    About the Author

    Founder
    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

      266 Comments

    ABQBear
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:00am

    Thurd?

    No?

    Newbie with the snake on first, possibly.

    mapleleaf
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:00am

    Take Off, Eh?

    2nd Hoser

    sengfarmer
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:07am

    top ten :)

    I guess it pays to stay on your toes. Edging ever closer to the prize.

    Dr G
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:09am

    Turd, I don't think I've said

    Turd, I don't think I've said it yet, so Merry Christmas to you and your family!

    TomMack
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:13am

    present

    maybe i can be president some day

    edit: world famous "thrud"

    SIlverbee
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:19am

    Why does much volitility

    invariably mean to the downside?

    jimbo
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:20am

    Holidays

    Merry Christmas to you Turd and to the whole Turdistan.

    jimbo
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:21am

    Holidays

    Merry Christmas to you Turd and to the whole Turdistan.

    sprite
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:21am

    Classic!!

    <And now onto today's post.

    Blah, blah, blah, metals down overnight, blah, blah, stocks up, blah, blah, chart lousy, blah, blah, blah, Cartel, blah, blah, evil, blah, blah, blah, manipulate, blah, blah, support, blah, blah, blah, rally, blah, blah, blah, vindication.

    OK, now that you're caught up and ready to take on the week>

    That really made me laugh Turd. Well said!!

    The very best to you and your family for the coming break.

    May 2013 bring you, and all Turdites, peace and happiness.

    Be Prepared
    Dec 17, 2012 - 11:23am

    A New State of Being...

    We are in the midst of the Fourth Turning.....the level of chaos and disruptions will be ever increasing as all the generational forces find a new state of equilibrium. I know many of you have read about the Fourth Turning, but here is brief synopsis:

    There are many potential threats that could feed a growing sense of public urgency as the Fourth Turning progresses, from financial collapse to a protracted war, from a crisis of weapons proliferation to an environmental crisis, from an energy shortage to new civil wars abroad. The generational cycle cannot explain the role or timing of these individual threats. It cannot account for specific great incidents in history, like Pearl Harbor, or President Kennedy’s assassination, or 9/11. What it can do is explain when Crisis or Awakening events are most likely to happen—and, even more importantly, how society is likely to respond to these events in different eras. It is the response, not the initial event, which defines an era.

    In Anglo-American history, there have been six Fourth Turnings dating back to the fifteenth century (see Historical Turnings). In the modern history of many other societies whose generational currents have run roughly parallel to that of the United States (especially in Europe and Asia), there have been many other Fourth Turnings. By observing the similarities in how these eras unfold, a morphology can be constructed.

    A Crisis era begins with a catalyst, a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood. In America’s last Fourth Turning, the catalyst was the 1929 stock market crash. In the current era, we may ultimately look back on the global market meltdown and historic national election of 2008--ushering in a “Great Recession” and a seemingly endless era of deleveraging--as the initial mood-changer. Several years after the catalyst, society enters a regeneracy, a drawing together of the community in response to a worsening outlook and a growing determination to surmount the challenge. Thus regenerated, a society then propels toward a climax—a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and triumph of the new. The climax can end well, badly, or some combination of both. Either way, it shakes a society to its roots, transforms institutions, redirects social purposes, and marks people (and generations) for life. Eventually, the mood transforms into the exhaustion and relief of resolution, the moment when treaties are signed and celebrations are staged.

    As the new order quickly hardens and people embrace dreams of domestic contentment, the Crisis era ends and society enters the First Turning of the next saeculum. Roughly twenty years, in most cases, will have elapsed since the catalyst. In today’s context, we at LifeCourse anticipate the end of the Fourth Turning to occur sometime in the late 2020s. By then, we expect that a new “Homeland Generation” (born, 2005– ?) will begin to come of age as young adults. We tentatively tag them as belonging to the Artist archetype. They will strike older Americans as well-educated, well-behaved, risk averse, and perhaps also credulous and conformist.

    As America moves into a Fourth Turning, this will be a time of great national trial and upheaval. Yet seeing this on the horizon is not a prophesy of some horrible tragedy. A Fourth Turning also could be a time of triumph. Just as the risk of war is great in a Fourth Turning, so too is the possibility of accomplishing things that in other eras would be impossible—particularly in the areas of government, institutions, and infrastructure. It’s important to remember that Fourth Turnings have occurred many times before in American history. Each has been an era when America felt good about itself as a society and a nation, a time when big problems have been solved, when businesses ultimately emerged prosperous, and when people came together with a new ethic of community and consensus.

    I appreciate that many of the events and actions we see within our government and society as whole are leading us down a path of great change and, unfortunately, we will land in a place that will most likely represent a significant end to much of what we have understood about ourselves being replaced with things that will be prescribed by others for us to follow by dictate.... the end of the experiment.

    Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

    10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
    10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
    10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
    10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
    10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
    10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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    Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

    10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
    10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
    10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
    10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
    10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
    10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

    Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

    10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
    10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
    10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
    10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
    10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
    10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

    9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
    10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
    10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
    10/2 China Golden Week Begins
    10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
    10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
    10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
    10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
    10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
    10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

    9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
    9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
    9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
    9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

    9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
    9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
    9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
    9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
    9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

    9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
    9/11 8:30 ET PPI
    9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
    9/12 8:30 ET CPI
    9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
    9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

    9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
    9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
    9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
    9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
    9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
    9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
    9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

    8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
    8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
    8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
    8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
    8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
    8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

    8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
    8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
    8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
    8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
    8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

    8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
    8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
    8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
    8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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