Back From Break

488
Fri, Dec 14, 2012 - 10:09am

You may have noticed that I was gone all day yesterday. Eleven, full hours with no phone and no internet and it WAS GREAT! So, what did I miss? Silver is all the way back to....where it was a month ago. Oh, no! The sky is falling!!

Seriously. I haven't even bothered to look over the comments to the previous thread as I'm sure they're full of despondent traders and gleeful trolls. Whatever. As I said yesterday, no one is going to stop me from doing what I do because I know, in the long term, that I am correct. Global central banks are going to print and print in their efforts to manage their way out of this debt crisis. They will fail and, with them, fiat currency will fail, too. In the end, a new international trade settlement system will emerge with a gold-backed unit of exchange at its heart. The only protection that I have against this wealth destruction is my stash of physical metal, which currently resides in a heavily-guarded vault at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.

So what do you do today? You buy the freaking dip, that's what you do. If The Bullion Bank Cartel is going to insist upon giving us all more time to accumulate metal at deeply-discounted prices, I strongly urge you to take them up on it. Lord knows the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Turks are doing so. You should be doing the same. Namely, convert your rapidly-devaluing dollar reserves into hard assets, primarily gold and silver. Forget the goons in the media and the water-carrying shills for The Cartel, gold and silver are NOT in bubbles. That is complete nonsense! Since when does an asset that is currently owned by just 1% of global investors considered a "bubble"? Since The Cartel shills in the media declared it so, that's when. Ridiculous.

And while, we're at it...How come no one besides ole Turd can dare say that QE is all about funding the federal deficit? The "dots" are all there yet no one seems to want be able to make the connection. Countless articles have been written about The Fed essentially owning the entire Treasury issuance past 7 years. The fiscal 2013 deficit is already tracking 20% ahead of 2012 and on pace for $1.7T and suddenly the Fed announces that they're supplying $85B/month ($1T+/yr) in new money...yet no one can see that this is direct monetization of the deficit and debt? It's surreal. It's the real life equivalent of the old fable about the emperor having no clothes. I look around and its as if no one else can see what I see. Bizarre.

Oh, well, I for one choose NOT to bury my head in the sand and hope for the best. I will use my God-given observation and reasoning skills and think for myself, instead. This leads me to the financial protection of gold and silver and nothing The Cartels does can shake me from my positions.

To that end, yesterday was a classic. The lack of follow-through buying on the latest QE announcement emboldened The Bad Guys to raid price early Wednesday evening. Once they tripped some stops by moving price below 1705, it was on. The raid was particularly grotesque in silver where the OI remains dangerously high for JPM. In fact, on Wednesday, the total silver OI surged once again to 144,066. This long-standing and growing open interest undoubtedly frightens The Big Shorts and they knew a raid must be initiated. Thus, the pounding in gold wasn't nearly as substantial as the pounding silver took yesterday. I wait with great interest for yesterday's OI totals. They should be released, as usual, by about 2:00 EST today. In Harvey parlance, how many silver leaves were shaken from the tree yesterday? I can't wait to find out.

Along with the OI numbers, we'll also get another CoT later today. It won't be nearly as dramatic as last week simply because the reporting period saw very small changes in both OI and price. Nonetheless, you never know how the internals may change from week-to-week so be sure to check back later today. I'll have another podcast to release and we'll surely be discussing this latest CoT.

And, finally, just a few more words about price as we head into the final days of 2012. Let's summarize a few things:

  1. Though the inaction behind-the-scenes is infuriating, I still expect vindication for all of us in 2013.
  2. I had thought that gold and silver would finish the year at or near the top of their 2012 ranges with gold near 1800 and silver near 35. This is certainly looking less likely but I would remind all of the trolls that there are still quite a few trading days left in the year.
  3. And as recently as a week ago I laid out why I felt December would be a solid month. Namely, given the overriding fundamentals, there is no reason to think that the metals would close 2012 by trending downward toward the bottom of the ranges. This makes no sense. If you look at 2012 as a year of price consolidation during a time of little unsterilized Fed action, price should be trending higher into 2013, a year which is quite obviously going to see substantial unsterilized Fed action.

In 2012, Gold has traded in a range roughly bounded by 1550 at the bottom and 1800 at the top. The median line for this range is 1675. Note that the recent selloff has not broken price down below this level and I do not expect any further selling to breach this level, either. Instead, I expect gold to rally over the remainder of the year. Will me make it to 1780-1800? Who knows? Does it matter? Really? With all that's set to happen in 2013, a year-end close of 1730 vs 1780 matters very little.

The same could be said for silver. For 2012, it has also been rangebound in a trade between 26 and 36, with a median line of 31. Again, given the fiat currency situation for 2013, the continuance of extremely tight physical supplies...and...other factors..., why would we expect silver to break down through $31 and head toward the low end of the range? Exactly. There is no reason to expect this and, therefore, I don't. Silver should/will continue to consolidate here and finish the year somewhere between 33 and 35. Then....it's on. 2013 is going to be a doozy.

So, relax or, better yet, do what the LTs say to do: Chillax. This is a combination of "chill" and "relax". Take some time away like I did yesterday. Enjoy the season and search for joy in things unrelated to money and finance. Be at peace knowing that you are doing the right thing.

As I mentioned above, please check back later today or tomorrow for another exciting TFMR podcast as well as some commentary on the CoT.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  488 Comments

sengfarmer · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:30pm

Byzantium and ancientmoney

It appears I have a large gap in my understanding here. Where is the secondary market? I thought that once you bought a bond you had to hold it to maturity to get the full yield and if you wanted out you could sell it back to the issuer at a loss of some principle.

What happens when the old bonds come to maturity and they have to be bought back with cash which is raised through selling new debt to cover not only the amount of the bond but also the interest?

Is that old debt that is coming to maturity what you are referring to as the secondary market? I don't understand how there can be a secondary market when there is no longer a primary market.

Hasn't the market for US debt all ready collapsed and that is the reason the Fed has to buy back the debt now, 60 t0 90% of it?

Is there a forum where you guys could educate me? I would be very thankful to better understand all this.

¤ · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:32pm

FMB

It's a shame watching obvious trolls serve as nothing more than raw meat for the crowd on a TGIF thread derailment. The community could do without this type of lame B.S. Maybe we can all move forward and not let this serve as a source of amusement the rest of the night.

dropout · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:32pm

A Visit With The Fundos

Mr. & Mrs. Fundamental that is.

The past six weeks for me, has been a 'boots on the ground' kind of research.

Visiting with friends and acquaintances in the resource sector, mainly mining and oil/gas. Also talking with people who chase these good paying jobs being offered in these two sectors. What I have found reinforces my profound belief that governments/corporations constantly outright lie, tell half-truths, or just dance around subject without saying anything.

Foreign workers are being brought in from China, with government approval, to work in the mining sector. Ostensibly because of their "qualifications." The mining entity explains that out of approx. 1,300 local applications, NOT ONE had the required "qualifications"! These Chinese workers are now being housed on site and being taught English, so as to effectively communicate with their bosses. Did I mention that their pay is 30% to 35% less then the going rate?

There are men who have traveled here and are currently living in RVs or other vehicles, who are ready ,willing, and able to learn these skills and work. The exception being that the mining corporation will have to pay them a higher wage. So their explanation of "qualifications" does not hold water. It comes down to the bottom line.

Look for this sort of thing to escalate and just not in the resource sector of the economy. Globalization means the corporations/government are on a path to downgrade labor to a slave level and to keep them enslaved through debt. All the while slowly stripping away all health and safety regulations, and pocketing ever increasing profits for themselves and their stock holders.

The new oil/gas plays are even worse with 60 to 70 hour work weeks. Working 12 hours per day for 6 days at a stretch, with NO regular rest periods or lunch breaks! All the workers agree that the money is good, but when you look at the amount of hours worked to attain that, it doesn't look that good.

The oil/gas companies have absolutely NO problem with instant dismissal for the lack of production, or infraction of a myriad of imposed regulations, with NO avenue of re-dress of grievance for the worker. Being conscientious and giving your employer 2 weeks notice when leaving, is also grounds for instant dismissal on the spot!

These working situations will worsen. With the added knock on effect of in the end, a weaker economy and the majority of wealth transferred to the top 1%. Just one more very basic fundamental that is worsening.

I Run Bartertown · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:35pm

Thanks TF

As always, great info.

Broken down in a way that attracts not just traders, but people who bring so many perspectives, backgrounds, and insights.

And sometimes, even a bit of this:

  

ltcolkilgore Nigel Black · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:35pm

Joined for the chance of a yellow hat of course!!!

Have been lurking since the Watchtower blog but did not really have anything meaningful to add...

I think something big is about to happen, not the Mayan prophecy either, perhaps others feel the same way...

Thanks to everyone, learned a ton lurking here for so long...

onealpha · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:35pm

Turd, just for the record, I

Turd, just for the record, I don't give a rats ass if you have one ounce of silver or gold. Makes absolutely no difference to me. I enjoy the community and the commentary, most days. If the subject was about something I wasnt interested in I would go elsewhere with my time. Plain and simple, if you give two shits about how much gold and silver Turd has then you have a lot to learn. If you don't have anything to contribute here then shut up and learn or leave. Its simple, but you knew that, I just wanted Turd to know that I don't care if he has no gold and owes someone gold making him a net negative gold holder!

Bollocks · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:36pm

FunkyMonkeyBoy

Are you really that dumb? Yes, you are.

Anyone could post up a pic or video of anything and claim it's theirs. Do you really think that if a pic appeared of "Turd's" stack it would prove it's his?

Jeez.

Are you really that dumb? Yes, you are.

Agh ... must not feed the trolls ... must not feed the trolls ... must not feed the trolls ...

FunkyMonkeyBoy ancientmoney · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:37pm

@ancientmoney

It's called simple deduction.

Are you really suggesting that PM miners get retailers/refiners/mints to pay way over spot COMEX price and then the the PM retailers make a loss by only charging $1-$2 over COMEX spot price (with the overheads occurred from procuring the metals in coin/bar form) to the final customer.

Seriously?

And you think you're the "smart money"?

As per the law, the burden of proof rest with the charlatans making the wild claims. i.e. COMEX is empty, JPM has a huge short position and, now, PM miners charge over way over COMEX set price. The burden of proof lies with those making the claims... and that is severely lacking.

babaganoush2307 · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:37pm

For the first time I am actually enjoying these...

...bashings on the most absurd troll ever to grace turdville with their presence. lol yes

FunkyMonkeyBoy Bollocks · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:38pm

@Bollocks

I would expect "Turd" to appear in the video with his stack of course, maybe i didn't make that explicit because i thought that would be obvious.

He has no problems appearing in videos on the internet when he's pumping PMs to the flock.

Grublux · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:40pm

So

What if you did see the stack. Would that change your allocation in any way?

That doesn't seem like the actions of a "critical thinker"

Robespierre · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:40pm
babaganoush2307 · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:41pm

Lol Bartertown

those are funny and quite appropriate yescheekyyes, FunkyMonkey did daddy not love you growing up? All the more reason we should take Dr. G's advice and work on keeping the family together

treefrog · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:41pm

katie rose,

you're right, the ignore feature works pretty well. i tend to delay using it because i'm philosophically opposed to censorship, even to that extent. i do,however occasionally overcome my opposition in cases like our recent funk infestation. in fact, i just did.

ancientmoney sengfarmer · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:49pm

@sengfarmer

The secondary market in bonds is actually the biggest in the world, except for FOREX. Anyone can sell a bond at any time (mostly, there are some exceptions). They do not need to be held to maturity by the initial purchaser, or anyone following. 

The issuer can buy back bonds that are "callable." They do this when they issued a bond at say, 8% and now new issues are going at say, 4%. That way they can pay out less interest to bondholders.

Most bonds are not callable. They trade based on their "yield to maturity." This means that if current issue interest rates are at 1%, then bonds with 5 years left that have a coupon (interest rate) of 5% will trade for above their initial issue price (value of the bond, say $1,000). This is called the bond's premium.

A discounted bond sells for less that its issue price when current rates are higher than the bond's interest rate.

When companies or governments buy back their bonds at maturity or due to a call, they can use anything they want. Cash, borrowed money, etc.

The Watchman · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:51pm
Nana · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:52pm

RE: A Visit With The Fundos

Absolutely amazing that they could not find 1 out of 1,300 local applications to be qualified!

With the true unemployment % rate well into the teens and if truth be known probably in the 20's it just makes me sick the extent the lying companies and their accomplices, the givememorement goes to to line their pockets while robbing the people. This equates to treason as far as I am concerned. I wonder if the imported chinese (now they are even importing chinese) "qualify" for food stamps, HUD, medicaid, WIC or any other tax payer subsidies programs.

Bollocks · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:52pm

FunkyMonkeyBoy

Yes, appearing in it I would expect too, if I ever expected to see something so ridiculous. And it would be about as meaningful as seeing Jamie Dimon feeding starving Africans. Ever heard of PR? Anything can be created to manipulate perception. So your asking for proof that Turd has a stack is ridiculous.

Wake up. Or piss off and stop trolling.

Agh ... I'm still feeding the a-hole. That's it. I'm finished.

FunkyMonkeyBoy · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:53pm

The truth.

Seems like "Turds" site is nothing but a circle jerk of thinking-challenged people. Each repeating rumors started by other gold/silver celebrities until it becomes accepted as truth (even though those truths would have been self-evident by now). Shouting down reasonable questions.

And the "Turd" doesn't practice what he preachers. His role is that of PR and Marketing for the PM miners, get those wares sold to the flock daily/weekly/years while he plays around with futures options (constantly making bad calls)... making up whatever bull is seem fit to get the job done and the flock love it, licking their lips and begging for more... even as the value of what their being sold drops 35%+ in short order ($49 to here).

Cult. Pure any simple. I wish it wasn't, that's why i asked proof from "Turd". But it is what it is. "Dumb money" in all it's glory. This is just another shade of nefarious evil, preying on the naive and sheep-like herd.

· Dec 14, 2012 - 4:54pm

Tragedy in CT - My Prayers Go Out to the Families

I am just back in from court all morning. I almost threw up in the car when I heard the news on the radio. I am sickened, just sickened at this. And, on top of it all, the foolish puppet in the White House is laying the ground work to blame guns for the violence!

Someone in the national media better get out in front of this story and mention that had the schools not been a "gun free zone" then perhaps the shooting could have been averted.

There is no such thing as coincidences on this stuff. Gabby Giffords in Tuscon, Aurora, CO and the shooter who did his deeds in theater, the mall shooting in Oregon just recently, they are ALL connected. They share the same tragic emotional pull, that trumps all logic. This is MOPE pure and simple.

I'm telling you now, and I told you already a few days ago, this shooting is related to the others. The Elite want to change public opinion, and make the NRA and us regular, decent folks who possess firearms out to be criminals and crazies. They want to ease the way for heavy gun restrictions, heavy taxes on ammo, or outright bans on it. They want to marginalize anyone who tries to explain the other side of the argument, that a heavily armed populace is actually a safer populace, because criminals are loathe to to their gun violence knowing that an armed civilian may just pull out a gun and end the problem right there and then.

Why is there no public media for the hundreds of times that a private citizen pulls out a firearm and prevents a murder, or a robbery, or a rape? Where is the media when a citizen discharges a firearm into a criminal who had already committed a crime of burglary and would have done more if not for the heroic actions of the shooter?

This is the last straw. Shooting innocent children in a school, right before Christmas? This is sick, depraved and evil, no doubt about it at all. I am CONVINCED that we are dealing with an evil overlord or group intent on controlling us all. This form of evil and its designed results is on display in the faces of the parents screaming at the loss of their child. Innocence is being taken away from all of us right now. When are we going to do some thing about it?

FEMA camps, restrictions on gun possession, record-setting numbers of Americans on food stamps, using electronic transfers to eat? This is going to end bad. Those dependent upon the govt will end up in camps. Those that resist may need to defend to the death. I fear for the next four years.

Here was my post from Dec. 11, 2012: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4369/killing-time?page=7 

I said this then: 

"I posted about the court ruling yesterday throwing out an illegal gun control law. I also suggested that there would be media effort to discredit the ruling. I also suggested that there would be a false flag event drawing attention to the "problem" of citizens being allowed to possess guns. Then, seemingly right on cue, a mass mall shooting in a highly progressive part of the country, Portland, Oregon, using an evil "assault" weapon. Who could have guessed that would happen? Man, I am sick to my stomach. Had that shooting been attempted in a non-progressive stronghold, like, say the California Inland Empire's Victoria Gardens, or Ontario Mills, the headlines would have been buried on page 23, and would have read "Police Disburse Onlookers After Disturbance." Only later in the article would it have been revealed that a 47 year old white male civilian, holding a valid concealed carry permit, pulled a concealed Glock 19, firing three shots, two to the chest and one to the head, killing a masked gunman in the parking lot. Authorities have detained the shooter for questioning. But in Oregon, the locals already hate guns, and of course the shooter knew no one was armed, so that location was chosen. Another coincidence is that the shooter is dead. Dead men tell no tales. Watch for Obummer and place Holder to announce a press conference, with Feinstein announcing a new Federal law she is introducing which will tax ammunition sales to pay for the costs of the gun violence. Start preparing everyone, please. Obummer's second term is going to be a doozy." I beg everyone to prepare. Roark, save me a place in Texas my friend.
Katie Rose · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:54pm

Arming oneself

I thought Nana's suggestion that all school teachers should be armed and taught to shoot accurately was a brilliant suggestion.

It brought to mind something that happened to me last night at 2:30 AM.

I was up using the bathroom when I heard noises outside. Since it was snowing, and the front gate was locked, I was surprised to hear any sounds at all.

I opened the front door and heard the wailing of one of my baby goats out in the barn.

So I did what any good Ma Ma does, I quickly dressed and headed out to the barn with my flashlight.

I was halfway to the barn when I realized that I had no idea what awaited me in the barn, and the flashlight was my only means of defense.

So I armed myself another way. I prayed.

Once in the barn I discovered that tiny little girl goat had gone into her first heat and was doing everything in her power to smash through the wall that separated her from the little buckling I had borrowed. I burst out laughing. It was such a funny sight. She is way too tiny to be bred now.

And I had another realization. I was foolish not to bring my revolver with me. I was in too much of a hurry to think clearly.

I was wise to say a heart felt prayer.

I think we are going to need to arm ourselves both ways in the days ahead - physically and spiritually. I think this is more than just a physical battle we are fighting.

And little girl goat is spending today locked up, as it became very obvious when I put her out this AM that the fence dividing her from the buckling would not withstand her antics. wink

AlexCojones · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:54pm

My Stack - Same or Smaller than Turd's

My stack ...

Okay, well, I found it on Google images. Satisfied MB, or Million Dollar Bonus?

The Watchman · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:56pm
Bollocks · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:57pm
zpring TF · Dec 14, 2012 - 4:58pm

Keep the faith. As long as

Keep the faith. As long as the fundamentals are intact, price will catch up

Read Michael Lewis "The big short " recently. Similar events that CDO continued to rise and in demand from Merrill Lynch, and other banks. Those who short the housing market or buy CDS were under pressure. There was Mike Burry who ran a hedge fund shorting mortgages had to go to hiding for a while until the market catch up. Even his mentor, Greenberg, a well known value manager was against him.

The longer it is suppressed, the bigger the firework when it breaks.

Pairadimes ancientmoney · Dec 14, 2012 - 5:00pm

@ ancientmoney

"the end game is approaching and all that is left is theft". Exactly right. Let's see......the Chinese hold maybe 2 trillion in treasuries, they are buying all the gold they can at bargain prices, they may be working with the Fed to continue the suppression of the gold price, they are establishing trade arrangements with trading partners whereby the petro dollar is no longer used as a medium of exchange and there is talk that the yuan will become a gold backed currency in the future. What will happen when all those petro dollars are no longer demanded by the rest of the world? Will they flood back into the U.S. and what will that do to price inflation here in the U.S.? If dollars are suddenly plentiful and demand for them has decreased their value must diminish. Why hold on to treasuries when the value of the dollars they are denominated in is going down? Would the Chinese dump treasuries at that point just to get the ball rolling down the hill? Wow....I don't think I understand all I know about what's going on. There are too many moving parts. I think I'll stick with the one thing I know for sure......just keep stackin'. That has preserved wealth for thousands of years and will likely continue to do so.

Road_Scholar · Dec 14, 2012 - 5:01pm
FunkyMonkeyBoy Bollocks · Dec 14, 2012 - 5:01pm

@Bollocks

"So your asking for proof that Turd has a stack is ridiculous."

- No, you following a man who tells you to buy, buy, buy the product he is promoting. Who offers no proof of wild claims he makes why you should buy, buy, buy the product he is promoting. Who tells you to buy, buy, buy even as the products value falls 35%+ in just over a year. All the while, offering no proof that he buys, buys, buys the product himself that he's promoting...

... no, that is ridiculous.

He makes 1 good call in about 20. That is terrible odds, you'd be better off tossing a coin.

I just don't think you can bear to think that you've been swindled, it would just be too much of a shock to your system and you're in too deep now... and you'd prefer to bury your head in the sand and keep up the charade.

JimmyTheHand · Dec 14, 2012 - 5:07pm

FMB Troll

Hahahha... I love jacking with trolls sometimes. It is a cathartic experience. 

FMB please by all means, put up a video of everything you own up on YouTube to share with the world. I think I have already seen a few videos of you flinging sh!t on YouTube already now that I think about it. 

To everyone else, I recommend that you do not follow in monkeys footsteps.

@The Watchman

That picture is classic. Thank you.

ancientmoney California Lawyer · Dec 14, 2012 - 5:10pm

@Cal lawyer

You know, when I heard about this shooting, I thought the same way you do. Is there someone behind these? Does someone get a pay-off for this? Maybe the media could put a full-court press on the bank accounts of every friend or relative of this shooter, like they would for philandering politician of the wrong party.

In ME countries, and probably in lots of other places, fanatics will pay the family of a suicide-bomber a relatively large sum to carry out the bombing. These are usually poor, single people, or ones easily duped (watch out for such offers, FMB) who essentially have little else to live for. This allows them to "make a difference."

It is not altogether crazy to think as we do, unfortunately. Look at all the malevolent plots our government (and many others) have implemented in the past, including Fast & Furious, 9-11, etc., supposed suicide bombers on naval ships, attacks on other ships, etc.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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